A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Where you went off course, is when you defended being 12th in hitting and 4th in pitching.  Aim higher.

I'm not defending it.  I'm telling you what the numbers tell me.  The 12th/4th projection is a very solid number.  Of the 13 playoff contenders, only 4 teams have a lower number than the combined 16 (Mil, LAD, NYY, Atl).  The Cubs have a 16 and TB has a 17.  (All based on RS and RA).

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I just checked right now and the Red Sox are 22nd in MLB in runs scored, lol.  Not 12th.

Runs scored is a much more complicated calculus than OPS, so I use OPS for projections.  They should align, but occasionally diverge.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not defending it.  I'm telling you what the numbers tell me.  The 12th/4th projection is a very solid number.  Of the 13 playoff contenders, only 4 teams have a lower number than the combined 16 (Mil, LAD, NYY, Atl).  The Cubs have a 16 and TB has a 17.  (All based on RS and RA).

You jumped for joy all off-season at the hitters we didnt sign and weirdly asked for more pitching when we went full pitching.  At one point , I wasnt sure you were serious.

And here we sit with a 20th ranked offense based on ...... runs scored.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I can find many examples where we sucked for a game or two or more vs crappy pitchers then beat up on a good or great one.

I've always cringed when we had to face a TBD pitched against us.  Usually someone I never heard of, and usually shuts us down.  For like 60 years now.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Runs scored is a much more complicated calculus than OPS, so I use OPS for projections.  They should align, but occasionally diverge.

OPS isnt what it use to be, but still a very good indicator.  Im not disputing that.  But right now , to act like our offense is or has been acceptable , is either misleading, homerism, or complacency.

To point out that we tried to fix it at the deadline but ran into some bad luck with Mead specifically is fair. But thats one guy.  Adley, I liked the acquisition at the time, but I really think that looking to improve your offense  as a whole from a catcher is dubious.  I liked the Adley and Mead acquisitions, however.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I've always cringed when we had to face a TBD pitched against us.  Usually someone I never heard of, and usually shuts us down.  For like 60 years now.

This I can agree with.  It seems like the first 2 at-bats a hitter takes (in their career) against a pitcher with even an ounce of competence - makes that pitcher look like Maddux.

When I was a kid , I thought a cheat code was having guys make their MLB pitching debut in the post-season.  This year, I'll trust Gray, Tolle, and Ranger over Holobretz or whatever his name is.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Unfortunately, they also have one of the most impotent pitching staffs

Lot of injuries to the rotation.  The playoffs are still random, but they don't even have a #1 SP, and barely have any #2s.  They did a good job at the deadline adding warm bodies, but they have a tough row to hoe. 

[NHNative]

Its simple for me. We have all the talent we need to win the WS. The team just needs to play to their potential. A wee success and good attituude is contagious, just as the opposite is.

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

In todays MLB with the crazy spins, you gotta jump on the first thing straight. 

Yes, but with one caveat.  If you are facing a weak pitcher, you can be more patient, because they usually won't beat you.  And for a few hitters, the counts don't matter.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox offense in September looks exactly like the Sox offense in April.  Hot weather hitters only?  I don't know but the numbers are pretty grim.

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yes, but with one caveat.  If you are facing a weak pitcher, you can be more patient, because they usually won't beat you.  And for a few hitters, the counts don't matter.

And just for the record, we are #18 in 1st pitch PAs, and #9 in OPS.

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You jumped for joy all off-season at the hitters we didnt sign and weirdly asked for more pitching when we went full pitching.  At one point , I wasnt sure you were serious.

And here we sit with a 20th ranked offense based on ...... runs scored.

And #3 in RAs based on..........runs allowed.

[drewski6]

15 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Its simple for me. We have all the talent we need to win the WS. The team just needs to play to their potential. A wee success and good attituude is contagious, just as the opposite is.

And professionalism and playoff experience.  I would put the C on Story right now.  Hes the lead to follow.  Roman Anthony drinks too much.  Story arrives at the ballpark same time every day, checks in on Duran to make sure hes got his mental health in check, stands up for the locker room when he's urged to do so.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Lot of injuries to the rotation.  The playoffs are still random, but they don't even have a #1 SP, and barely have any #2s.  They did a good job at the deadline adding warm bodies, but they have a tough row to hoe. 

For the playoffs to be random , that would imply that every team making it has an equal chance. So far from the case.  This is just complacency again, striving to be a top 12 team in MLB and acting like its as good as top 1.  BTW you said we were the second best team in baseball this offseason.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And #3 in RAs based on..........runs allowed.

Yes, I know the pitching has carried us and is a real strength.  We have a chance of beating the Yankees and advancing further because of the pitching.  But #3 in runs allowed, and #20 in runs scored - doesnt feel good enough.  The goal is not to be above average.

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

OPS isnt what it use to be, but still a very good indicator.  Im not disputing that.  But right now , to act like our offense is or has been acceptable , is either misleading, homerism, or complacency.

To point out that we tried to fix it at the deadline but ran into some bad luck with Mead specifically is fair. But thats one guy.  Adley, I liked the acquisition at the time, but I really think that looking to improve your offense  as a whole from a catcher is dubious.  I liked the Adley and Mead acquisitions, however.

If I have the time, or more importantly, the mental inclination, I might check out the OPS/RS discrepancy.  The correlation between RS and OPS is as close to 1.00 as real life allows.  The RS are 17th in OPS and 22nd in RS.  It sounds close, but probably the biggest variance in MLB.

Setting aside the prices paid, adding Rutschman and Mead were directionally correct.  As we all know, the biggest relative weaknesses (sOPS+) for the RS were:

• LF (Anthony)
• C   (Rutschman)
• SS (Story)
• 2B (Mead)

Story was probably the least reliable of the replacements, but it's difficult to address every weakness.

Past that, I have never denied some bias.  I use FG and BR as much as is reasonable, but even hard-core statistics are subject to interpretation.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

To mock you.

What a wonderful use of your time. 

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Its simple for me. We have all the talent we need to win the WS. The team just needs to play to their potential. A wee success and good attituude is contagious, just as the opposite is.

If Contreras is healthy and plays like he did earlier in the season, they could get through the AL. I'd be happy with the 33% chance or whatever against the Dodgers. It's a HR park and our hitters did ok there this season. 

[drewski6]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If I have the time, or more importantly, the mental inclination, I might check out the OPS/RS discrepancy.  The correlation between RS and OPS is as close to 1.00 as real life allows.  The RS are 17th in OPS and 22nd in RS.  It sounds close, but probably the biggest variance in MLB.

Setting aside the prices paid, adding Rutschman and Mead were directionally correct.  As we all know, the biggest relative weaknesses (sOPS+) for the RS were:

• LF (Anthony)
• C   (Rutschman)
• SS (Story)
• 2B (Mead)

Story was probably the least reliable of the replacements, but it's difficult to address every weakness.

Past that, I have never denied some bias.  I use FG and BR as much as is reasonable, but even hard-core statistics are subject to interpretation.

Sure.  I dont think its as close to 1.0 as real life allows.  That may be a bit too far, but its a great indicator.  

Regarding the homerism - no beef.  But its the complacency.  We've won one playoff series in the last seven years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) and this year will make it 8 years. If we lose to the Yankees, it will be 0 in 5 years.  Yet you frequently frame RS fans as impossible to please complainers, and defend literally every move the front office makes.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Contreras is healthy and plays like he did earlier in the season, they could get through the AL. I'd be happy with the 33% chance or whatever against the Dodgers. It's a HR park and our hitters did ok there this season. 

Win one series Im happy.  Win one game against the Yankees with the bats and lose the series, and Ill prob be happy.  I just dont want to see us lose in 2 or 3 games, with 5 or less total runs scored.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sure.  I dont think its as close to 1.0 as real life allows.  That may be a bit too far, but its a great indicator.  

Regarding the homerism - no beef.  But its the complacency.  We've won one playoff series in the last seven years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) and this year will make it 8 years. If we lose to the Yankees, it will be 0 in 5 years.  Yet you frequently frame RS fans as impossible to please complainers, and defend literally every move the front office makes.

With expanded playoffs, our expectations should be that the Sox are in the playoffs MORE OFTEN and at least getting past the WC round MORE OFTEN. They should be a top 10 (really top 5) payroll every year. They should be winning a lot. I don't think the expectation is WS or bust. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Win one series Im happy.  Win one game against the Yankees with the bats and lose the series, and Ill prob be happy.  I just dont want to see us lose in 2 or 3 games, with 5 or less total runs scored.

Beat Schlittler and lose the series and I think I'm ok.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Everyone knows that OPS and wRC+ are more correlated with scoring runs than scoring runs.

Love this!

LOL

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

BTW you said we were the second best team in baseball this offseason.

I predicted 92 wins.  Our Py W/L is 89.5.  Given the injuries, I'd say that was ballpark correct.

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

I predicted 92 wins.  Our Py W/L is 89.5.  Given the injuries, I'd say that was ballpark correct.

Uh, no. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

For the playoffs to be random , that would imply that every team making it has an equal chance. So far from the case.  This is just complacency again, striving to be a top 12 team in MLB and acting like its as good as top 1.  BTW you said we were the second best team in baseball this offseason.

If the playoffs are totally random, the Dodgers shouldn't have won 3 of the last 6.

There is definitely some randomness in the playoffs because of the short series.

But it's by no means a pure randomness.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Sure.  I dont think its as close to 1.0 as real life allows.  That may be a bit too far, but its a great indicator.  

Regarding the homerism - no beef.  But its the complacency.  We've won one playoff series in the last seven years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) and this year will make it 8 years. If we lose to the Yankees, it will be 0 in 5 years.  Yet you frequently frame RS fans as impossible to please complainers, and defend literally every move the front office makes.

Not really.  I think/thought that 2022-2024 were fairly clear selling opportunities.  And I was disappointed that we didn't pursue Naylor at the trade deadline last year.  But I like most of Breslow's moves over the past two years.  Don't confuse preferring pitching over hitting as good or bad.  Those are mostly personal preferences.

If you want my personal gripes, I didn't like the Newsome drop or Bernadino trade.  Both useful lefties that were/are performing well.  I honestly wasn't crazy about adding Bregman.  The $$$ were okay, but the draft choice and the player options made the cost seem excessive to me.

Every one of the biggest moves have worked out, though I'd be glad to discuss them.

[JoeBrady]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Uh, no. 

If we had Crochet, would we have not won 92?

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If we had Crochet, would we have not won 92?

The 2026 version? No. I guess this assumes the Sox have no injuries and all the other teams get their same number of injuries? Doesn't seem fair for a projection either. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Every one of the biggest moves have worked out, though I'd be glad to discuss them.

Letting Devers and Bregman go was dumb. The Adley trade has not worked out so far.