A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[notin]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm sure a couple of people, with better memories than me, will remember the names, but who did we give up for Eovaldi and/or Pearce.  Who'd we give up for Peavy?

Jalen Beeks for Eovaldi

Santiago Espinal for Pearce

Jose Iglesias for Peavy (through Detroit, who sent Avisail Garcia to Chicago)…

[JoeBrady]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I think too often fans measure trades immediately and judge who won the trade.  I agree, the performance of Eyanson isnt the measure here.  The whole nature of trades is that each team is supposed to benefit; it’s not about ripping off one team and getting something for nothing…

I think there is a positive to see our guys do well elsewhere.  I don't think it's a huge impact, but some teams have a reputation for being pitching labs.  If other GMs feel more comfortable that they are getting a reasonable return, I think they'll be more likely to ring us up.

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Jalen Beeks for Eovaldi

Santiago Espinal for Pearce

Jose Iglesias for Peavy (through Detroit, who sent Avisail Garcia to Chicago)…

And all three were decent+.

But does anyone miss them?

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i totally disagree.  it should be judged on how the trade works out for BOTH teams.

Yes, but for the Red Sox you judge it by what Adley does.  
 

a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, hypothetically the team buying should always be losing the trade.  
 

the Red Sox should be trying to win playoff games not win the trade 15 years from now.

[Hugh2]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

I think too often fans measure trades immediately and judge who won the trade.  I agree, the performance of Eyanson isnt the measure here.  The whole nature of trades is that each team is supposed to benefit; it’s not about ripping off one team and getting something for nothing…

Exactly!!!!

tradng isn’t supposed to be a zero sum game.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, but for the Red Sox you judge it by what Adley does.  
 

a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, hypothetically the team buying should always be losing the trade.  
 

the Red Sox should be trying to win playoff games not win the trade 15 years from now.

If Adley performs well or Sox win WS, I don’t care what the prospects do in BAL.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If Adley performs well or Sox win WS, I don’t care what the prospects do in BAL.

Agreed, we are trading future value for present value, if the Sox win a WS the next two years it’s worth it.  
 

another reason I don’t like that line of thinking is I think it sets us up to root for the guys we traded away to fail.  They have to fail for us to win!!!!

You want those guys to succeed, then other teams are going to want to trade with you.  Also, it means you can draft and develop guys and if you keep on doing that well you will replenish the pipeline

[moonslav59]

Yanks and Rays lost.

Sox are 2 GB NYY (3 in loss column)

6 GB the Rays (7 losses)

Still some hope....

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Agreed, we are trading future value for present value, if the Sox win a WS the next two years it’s worth it.  
 

another reason I don’t like that line of thinking is I think it sets us up to root for the guys we traded away to fail.  They have to fail for us to win!!!!

You want those guys to succeed, then other teams are going to want to trade with you.  Also, it means you can draft and develop guys and if you keep on doing that well you will replenish the pipeline

I don't think I ever hoped someone would do poorly, just we'd "win a trade," but it does hurt to watch one do very well- after the fact.

I never rooted for Sale to fail, but it was frustrating to see him pitch so well after years of next to nothing from him.

So, if he sucked, nobody would care about the trade. Once could even say we won the trade due to using the money saved to sign _____.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm sure a couple of people, with better memories than me, will remember the names, but who did we give up for Eovaldi and/or Pearce.  Who'd we give up for Peavy?

Beeks for Nate. Beeks had a 1.9 bWAR for TBR in 5 years (missed 1 w injury.) He was #6 when traded.

Espinal for Pearce. He had a couple 2.4 bWAR seasons for TOR. Espinal was #15 at his peak in the Sox system.

[moonslav59]

Judge is back with Yanks.

Let's see how he does.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Adley performs well or Sox win WS, I don’t care what the prospects do in BAL.

Pitching prospects have to be the most volatile as far as fulfilling expectations.

After seeing Duran and Rutschman go deep off Grayson Rodriguez, it's hard to remember he was THE #1 Pitching Prospect in all of baseball just five years ago. He also missed last season with injuries, including surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. 

Now he's 26 years old with a 4-7 record and 6.28 ERA. Career WAR 1.4.

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Beeks for Nate. Beeks had a 1.9 bWAR for TBR in 5 years (missed 1 w injury.) He was #6 when traded.

Espinal for Pearce. He had a couple 2.4 bWAR seasons for TOR. Espinal was #15 at his peak in the Sox system.

Espinal was also an All Star…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Pitching prospects have to be the most volatile as far as fulfilling expectations.

After seeing Duran and Rutschman go deep off Grayson Rodriguez, it's hard to remember he was THE #1 Pitching Prospect in all of baseball just five years ago. He also missed last season with injuries, including surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. 

Now he's 26 years old with a 4-7 record and 6.28 ERA. Career WAR 1.4.

So true. Many of the best pitchers were never top prospects, even within their own system.

Remember the Espinoza for Pom-Pom trade?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So true. Many of the best pitchers were never top prospects, even within their own system.

Remember the Espinoza for Pom-Pom trade?

I was in complete shock -- how could Dombro trade the Sox NUMBER ONE PITCHING PROSPECT!

Espinoza, now 28, has pitched in Japan the past three years.

His entire MLB career is as a reliever in 7 games for the Cubs in 2022: 0-2, 5.40 ERA, 0 WAR.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I was in complete shock -- how could Dombro trade the Sox NUMBER ONE PITCHING PROSPECT!

Espinoza, now 28, has pitched in Japan the past three years.

His entire MLB career is as a reliever in 7 games for the Cubs in 2022: 0-2, 5.40 ERA, 0 WAR.

The problem with the Pomeranz trade was that it was an overpay for a pitcher that was clearly going to regress immediately. Espinoza still had a lot of value and could have brought in a better player IMO. 

It's not that you can't trade those guys, just use them in good trades. Don't dump him for a guy who just learned a cutter and is running high on it and the book hasn't gotten around on him yet. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even more useless is to debate the optimum batting order. I never liked Roman Anthony leadoff -- and I know Red Sox management loves him leadoff. 

His on base percentage can be good when he's not striking out (10 Ks in 21 ABs over Labor Day weekend), but I get the sense his bosses would like to see him become a Schwarber/Ohtani type of leadoff and crank a lot of early homers to give Boston a quick lead. 

But Anthony is so much better when he uses the whole field, which he'd be forced to do batting behind other high on base guys like Gasper or Contreras. I'm still in favor of taking the pressure off the returning youngster and batting him 5th or 6th. 

Even if Rafaela struggles to heal, we have to accept that Mickey will be on the bench. Duran is the leftfielder through October; they're not moving him to CF to put Roman in LF. 

Sogard, Abreu, Adley, Contreras, Anthony, Durbin, Duran, Story, White.

If Ceddanne is back but Contreras isn't:

Sogard, Mickey, Adley, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Durbin, Duran, Story.

[mvp 78]

It's less about having your leadoff guy "crank homeruns" and more about having your best hitter up to bat as much as possible. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's less about having your leadoff guy "crank homeruns" and more about having your best hitter up to bat as much as possible. 

I understand that thinking. But then, why doesn't Contreras bat leadoff?

He's second in the American League in OPS to a guy who may be unanimous MVP. 

So why doesn't Alvarez bat leadoff? Or Caminero, Ben Rice or Alonso (the rest of the top 5)? Possible answer: because they're all legit sluggers, and managers would rather someone gets on base in front of them.

Anthony has looked better since his return from the IL, but nobody's been a better hitter than Gasper the past 7 days, the past 14 days or the past 28 days.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I understand that thinking. But then, why doesn't Contreras bat leadoff?

My guess is that they believe (as most of us did as well) that Roman is almost as good and is great at getting on base (almost .400 last year). If your 1a/1b hitter has a very high OBP, just slide him in at leadoff and let the guys behind him drive him in. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My guess is that they believe (as most of us did as well) that Roman is almost as good and is great at getting on base (almost .400 last year). If your 1a/1b hitter has a very high OBP, just slide him in at leadoff and let the guys behind him drive him in. 

Well he's not Ted Williams because he doesn't average 37 HRs, 130 RBI, .344 BA, .482 OBP, .634 SLUG and 1.116 OPS for over 20 years batting against the same tired starting pitcher four times a night, who for half his career was only the color of a brand new baseball (including the red stitches when Ted hit liners off his face).

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

My guess is that they believe (as most of us did as well) that Roman is almost as good and is great at getting on base (almost .400 last year). If your 1a/1b hitter has a very high OBP, just slide him in at leadoff and let the guys behind him drive him in. 

I'm not sure there is any settled science on the lineup.  If Kimmi is peeking in, I think she has studies thsat show only a minor improvement between an optimal lineup, or one put together at random.  In this case, there is no chance I want Contreras batting in front of the RS 7-8-9 hitters, particularly as they were earlier in the season.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I was in complete shock -- how could Dombro trade the Sox NUMBER ONE PITCHING PROSPECT!

Espinoza, now 28, has pitched in Japan the past three years.

His entire MLB career is as a reliever in 7 games for the Cubs in 2022: 0-2, 5.40 ERA, 0 WAR.

He was not only their #1 prospect- he was the "next Pedro."

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem with the Pomeranz trade was that it was an overpay for a pitcher that was clearly going to regress immediately. Espinoza still had a lot of value and could have brought in a better player IMO. 

It's not that you can't trade those guys, just use them in good trades. Don't dump him for a guy who just learned a cutter and is running high on it and the book hasn't gotten around on him yet. 

No one knows how these guys are valued.  He had a 4.54 in 79.1 IPs in Single-A.  Scouts that saw him might not have been impressed.  I'd also bet serious money that we offered him to every team in BB.

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem with the Pomeranz trade was that it was an overpay for a pitcher that was clearly going to regress immediately. 

How was anybody to know Pom Pom was poised to decline, and "immediately?"

He has MLB's 8th best ERA from 2014 until the July 2016 trade (250+ PAs) at 2.84.

8th in ERA- (73)

20th in WHIP (1.12)

His 3.47 FIP, a stat you like, placed him 35th out of 131.

Plus, he had a decent 2017 season with 173 IP and an ERA of 3.32 (3.80 FIP)

Later, after the trade in 2019 until 2025, he had good numbers as a RP'er between IL stints....

4th best ERA July '19-end of 2025 (120+ IP)

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anthony has looked better since his return from the IL, but nobody's been a better hitter than Gasper the past 7 days, the past 14 days or the past 28 days.

Gaspers' not even #2 on the Sox in 7 days, and I'm not counting Jones.

2.333 Jones (3 PAs)

1.125 Rutschman (16)

1.043 White (23)

.979 Gasper (30)

(Jones has a higher OPS over 28 days, too. 20 PAs to 72 by Gasper.)

[moonslav59]

Hate to say it, but the Yanks just clinched their 34th straight winning season.

1989, 1990 & 1991 the Yanks had losing seasons- none since then.

The Sox have 9 losing seasons in 34 years. Those includes 7 last place finishes. When we go bad: we go real bad.

In 1992, we finished 7th out of 7 teams. The others were 5 out of 5, and some years there were 4 good teams in the ALE.

Still, pretty damn impressive, but let's pivot to playoffs and WS success since the 90's...

[moonslav59]

So, Cy Youngs:

Schlitter AL

Misiorowski NL

MVP

Yordan AL

Ohtani NL (PC-A is close)

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

No one knows how these guys are valued.  He had a 4.54 in 79.1 IPs in Single-A.  Scouts that saw him might not have been impressed.  I'd also bet serious money that we offered him to every team in BB.

Just making up stuff right now? 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How was anybody to know Pom Pom was poised to decline, and "immediately?"

That's all we talked about at the time of the trade. Not my fault if you were somewhere else at the time.