Masataka Yoshida Is Rediscovering His Game Just In Time for Red Sox's Surge

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Masataka Yoshida was not struggling in the way that usually concerns a contact hitter. He was still recognizing pitches, controlling the strike zone, and making contact against offerings that many hitters cannot handle. The problem was that pitchers were no longer paying the price when they made mistakes against him.

During June, Yoshida turned one of his greatest strengths into a limitation. His ability to find the baseball remained intact, but too many of those batted-ball events produced trajectories that favored the defense. Opposing pitchers did not need to beat him with velocity, deception, or a perfectly sequenced attack. They could challenge him with four-seam fastballs, accept that he would put the ball in play, and trust that the result would be a manageable out.

When a hitter built around contact goes through an offensive slump, the first question is usually whether something in the process has broken: Is he swinging and missing more? Chasing more pitches? Losing bat speed? But that did not describe what was happening with Yoshida. The difference was what happened after contact.

To understand what's been going on under the hood, we'll look to where all slumps start: with fastballs.

That pitch has always been one of the most important tests for Yoshida because it represents the opportunity to punish the type of mistake he is built to attack. If pitchers could throw fastballs in the zone and survive, they had found a simple solution against a hitter whose game depends on taking advantage of mistakes. During June, that approach worked. Against fastballs, Yoshida hit .222 with a .370 slugging percentage.

Month	AVG vs Fastballs	SLG vs Fastballs	xSLG	Exit Velocity	Launch Angle
June	.222	.370	.329	88.4 mph	0°
July	.333	.778	.594	91.0 mph	14°

The change in July appears in one number that explains the transformation better than any batting average: launch angle. In June, Yoshida averaged 0 degrees against fastballs. His contact was producing a trajectory that turned good swings into predictable outcomes (i.e., grounders) for the defense. For a hitter whose advantage comes from consistently finding the baseball, that was the worst possible scenario: winning the battle against the pitch but losing the outcome of the at-bat.

In July, that dynamic has started to change. Yoshida’s launch angle against fastballs has increased to 14 degrees, while his average exit velocity climbed from 88.4 mph to 91.0 mph. The difference may look small on a spreadsheet, but it completely changes how pitchers must evaluate their mistakes.

The most interesting part of Yoshida’s adjustment is that it did not come from searching for a new offensive identity; his whiff rate against fastballs dropped from 17.6% in June to 15.2% in July. In other words, Yoshida did not start producing more damage because he started selling out for power. And, in turn, the power has actually returned on its own: His xSLG against fastballs jumped from .329 to .594.

The recent results are eye-catching. In his first 26 plate appearances of July, Yoshida posted a .385 batting average, a .731 slugging percentage and a 217 wRC+. That production is not sustainable over a full season, and his .381 BABIP suggests some of that performance will naturally decline over time. But that is not what's important; the real question is whether Yoshida regained the ability that changes how pitchers can attack him.

If so, the Red Sox have regained a key weapon in their lineup for the second half, just in time for a surge that has them right back in the thick of the playoff hunt.

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[JoeBrady]

Along time ago, when Boggs was in one of his rare slumps, a friend of mine, who understood real BB, said it was because he wasn't making pitchers afraid to pitch to him.  A pitcher always has to have some fear that you will go deep.

Similar, but different, with Duran.  The pitcher has to become afraid that Duran will take a walk and steal 2nd.  Otherwise, they will never give him a pitch to drive.

[moonslav59]

Last 28 days (not counting tonight)

1.059 Yoshida

1.050 Contreras

.935 Monasterio

.889 Abreu

.852 Durbin

.832 Wong

.768 Siegler

.702 Cheng

.698 Rafaela

.600 Mayer

.583 Narvaez

.579 Romy

.484 Eaton

.411 Duran

_____________________

OPS Against

.176 Moran

.390 Bennett

.488 Whitlock

.499 Guerrero

.548 Gray

.592 Tolle

.594 Weissert

.615 Early

.626 Rivera

.660 Watson

.684 Suarez

.733 Slaten

.793 Chapman

.906 Sandoval