Sonny Gray Is the Red Sox Trade Chip Craig Breslow Can't Afford to Get Wrong

[drewski6]

Just now, drewski6 said:

extend him.  you already have to pay him 10m if he walks. Sooo, that in mind

2 @ 35 each.  70 total.  Its really 60 cuz we are saving the 10m buyout.  He deserves it.  He came home with a last of names.

or trade him. whatever.  im thinking about what im going to order from orourkes.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem is that BTV isn't great at deciding what works for a pennant race. When a playoff team needs a #2 like Gray, they aren't going to worry about WAR/$ as much as BTV does. 

BTV gives Gray and Chapman pretty high value.

They just subtract what is owed, and it looks like they say they suck.

The fact is, many teams in the race and needing a SP or closer, won't even call the Sox, because they won't pay even their pro-rated shares.

[vegasbob]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Disagree?

You literally said “To improve the return, Boston may need to help pay down some of that opt-out money.”

So if the Sox include no money and any receiving team is on the hook for the full $21.6mill, you think they get a decent return?

 

Getting a WS title, like RS did in '04, 07 , 13 and 18 is priceless. 

If the Mets or Padres were any good do you think they would choke up on $20 Million ?

[notin]

1 minute ago, vegasbob said:

Getting a WS title, like RS did in '04, 07 , 13 and 18 is priceless. 

If the Mets or Padres were any good do you think they would choke up on $20 Million ?

The Padres are good.

My point was it limits what teams will want him. Tampa? Milwaukee? Cleveland? All out.  
 

Cubs, Yankees and a few others - pribably in but now fewer partners in the bidding war…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Getting a WS title, like RS did in '04, 07 , 13 and 18 is priceless. 

If the Mets or Padres were any good do you think they would choke up on $20 Million ?

They and a couple more teams would, a couple more might, but the return will be lessened by the money.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, notin said:

The Padres are good.

My point was it limits what teams will want him. Tampa? Milwaukee? Cleveland? All out.  
 

Cubs, Yankees and a few others - pribably in but now fewer partners in the bidding war…

The Padres are a .500 ballclub. They should be selling. They are NOT good. 

[notin]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Padres are a .500 ballclub. They should be selling. They are NOT good. 

They’re 4.5 games out and are probably on the fence like Boston…

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

They’re 4.5 games out and are probably on the fence like Boston…

They should be off the fence, just like the Red Sox. GB in the expanded WC system is meaningless IMO. 

[notin]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They should be off the fence, just like the Red Sox. GB in the expanded WC system is meaningless IMO. 

It keeps more teams involved and forces more tough decisions.  Also helps pushing the playoff schedule closer and closer to December…

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

It keeps more teams involved and forces more tough decisions.  Also helps pushing the playoff schedule closer and closer to December…

Having Rob Deere not being Mr December will be a stain on MLB's legacy. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Padres are a .500 ballclub. They should be selling. They are NOT good. 

What ever happened to "the playoffs are a crapshoot?"

I'm not even in that camp, but so many teams looked like non contenders in early to mid July, only to make very strong pushes through the playoffs.

We've also seen teams that look like clear top contenders on July 9th, only to collapse and not even make the playoffs- extended format or not.

Not that the Sox went deep into the playoffs, last year, but they were 4th in the ALE, last July 9th. They were 43-45 on July 2nd and nearly bottom tier (9th out of 15 AL teams in winning%)

[moonslav59]

Can I ask those who have already packed in the season, where we'd need to be by the deadline (AUG 3) to change your mind on selling? (Not saying be buyers, but just not sell.)

21 games to the deadline.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What ever happened to "the playoffs are a crapshoot?"

It's a crapshoot if you have a team that can compete. If you have a team that has a below average offense, it's not a crapshoot. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Can I ask those who have already packed in the season, where we'd need to be by the deadline (AUG 3) to change your mind on selling? (Not saying be buyers, but just not sell.)

21 games to the deadline.

Anthony in the lineup. 

Sox 7 games above .500. They were 11 games above .500 last 8/3 and ended up at 89 wins. They have to go 16-3. 

I don't care about a "weaker AL." I just don't. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a crapshoot if you have a team that can compete. If you have a team that has a below average offense, it's not a crapshoot. 

"Compete" includes the strength of other teams, right?

The Yanks ar 4-14, recently, but now recent sample sizes don't matter as much to you, anymore.

6 out of the 9 teams ahead of us have worse run differentials- some way worse- like 4 of 9 have 19 or more net runs worse.

Here is a good one:

All 8 teams above us minus the crappy Yanks have a net run differential of -50 and we are +17.

Add the Yanks, and the 9 teams combined are +27 to our +17.

Can it be possible we just are not as bad as you think? Can you even entertain that idea?

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't care about a "weaker AL." I just don't. 

You said you cared about competitiveness.

Right now, only the Rays look out of our reach.

One could argue the Yanks, but 4-14 kinda shows a kink in their armour.

 

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

"Compete" includes the strength of other teams, right?

The Yanks ar 4-14, recently, but now recent sample sizes don't matter as much to you, anymore.

The Yankees are a below .500 team without Judge. I've said this for years. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Yankees are a below .500 team without Judge. I've said this for years. 

Are the Rays beyond our reach? (As in having a realistic shot at beating in the playoffs?)

(As of now, the Rays are 5-1 vs BOS.)

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Are the Rays beyond our reach? (As in having a realistic shot at beating in the playoffs?)

(As of now, the Rays are 5-1 vs BOS.)

I think their pitching would shut the Sox down, but I don't really have a lot of faith in the Rays hitting in October. 

[southpaw777]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV gives Gray and Chapman pretty high value.

They just subtract what is owed, and it looks like they say they suck.

The fact is, many teams in the race and needing a SP or closer, won't even call the Sox, because they won't pay even their pro-rated shares.

The Cards gave them $20m. If they have to, send some of that over with him. At least the 10m buyout.

[southpaw777]

4 hours ago, notin said:

They’re 4.5 games out and are probably on the fence like Boston…

I wouldnt say we’re exactly on the fence yet.  We’re still on the selling side, maybe thinking about climbing up the buying fence, but still selling at this point.

i don’t think Breslow wants to give up what it would take to be a real WS contender this year. And I don’t think Henry wants to up the AAV payroll. 
 

 

[southpaw777]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Can I ask those who have already packed in the season, where we'd need to be by the deadline (AUG 3) to change your mind on selling? (Not saying be buyers, but just not sell.)

21 games to the deadline.

The real question is are they willing to strip the farm of all its top prospects to get it done and possibly up the AAV payroll? which wouldn’t make Henry happy…I’m selling everyone on a one year deal and some on two. If they stand pat they have unpaired intellectual development .. but they are definitely not ret**ded

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

The real question is are they willing to strip the farm of all its top prospects to get it done and possibly up the AAV payroll? which wouldn’t make Henry happy…I’m selling everyone on a one year deal and some on two.

thats one person btw (on a 1 yr deal), and its sonny gray and his value is dragged down by the 10m dead money that the trading team is on the hook for, and i agree that if you pay that down, you greatly increase his value , so maybe then sure.....but still a 36 yr old pitcher rental, what are we really expecting here? 

Might be better off just extending gray.

[drewski6]

if you can get a 22 yr old average defense, 6'4 pure hitter for gray, sign me up....but can you?  I dont want another 100 OPS+ with a glove.

[southpaw777]

Just now, drewski6 said:

thats one person btw (on a 1 yr deal), and its sonny gray and his value is dragged down by the 10m dead money that the trading team is on the hook for, and i agree that if you pay that down, you greatly increase his value , so maybe then sure.....but still a 36 yr old pitcher rental, what are we really expecting here? 

Might be better off just extending gray.

I sent over the 10 million St. Louis sent over for the buyout. Two year guys and even some other good players who would cost more..

contreras Abreu and Whitlock will be asked about.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

I sent over the 10 million St. Louis sent over for the buyout. Two year guys and even some other good players who would cost more..

contreras Abreu and Whitlock will be asked about.

our 2 best hitters on a team that cant hit outgoing makes us better?  i would hate to see the 2027 offense if you move abreu and contreras for prospects who are unlikely to be ready by 2027.

[southpaw777]

Just now, drewski6 said:

our 2 best hitters on a team that cant hit outgoing makes us better?  i would hate to see the 2027 offense if you move abreu and contreras for prospects who are unlikely to be ready by 2027.

Ive said I like these players in Boston, but I’ve also said in many posts that I would have to be absolutely overwhelmed, which usually won’t happen, for those 3 to move. 
 

[drewski6]

i can understand trading gray (if you eat into the 10m, I agree must be done, otherwise its pointless).  I understand trading contreras just because of his age but he is signed next year at an affordable clip, and i lean towards not selling him (but i could be talked into it)....abreu though? wilyer? i dunno man, i hard to envision us giving up wilyer and being better in 2027.  we would need sooooo much back, right?  And that kind of goes for contreras too.

[drewski6]

Just now, southpaw777 said:

Ive said I like these players in Boston, but I’ve also said in many posts that I would have to be absolutely overwhelmed, which usually won’t happen, for those 3 to move. 
 

if we're out of it, a team acquiring contreras and chapman would get 2 playoff pushes (2026, 2027) vs our one (2027 only), so in theory, they would have near double value to anotehr team and they should be willing to pay us enough to make it worth it.  Like you, Im skeptical its going to be that easy.

I agree with your logic and skepticism.  Im not sure there is an easy way out of this mess.  Well, actually Im sure there is.  Because the other AL teams are just as bad lol.  Like Joe Brady says, sometimes it feels like the red sox can win the race by standing still cuz everyone else is sprinting backwards.

I dont know.  Selling makes some sense, but also retaining contreras and chapman for next year makes some sense too.

Im definitely listening to offers on sonny gray and im willing to eat the 10m buyout if that greatly increases the return package....but a complication is that ive kind of grown to like sonny gray.

[southpaw777]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

i can understand trading gray (if you eat into the 10m, I agree must be done, otherwise its pointless).  I understand trading contreras just because of his age but he is signed next year at an affordable clip, and i lean towards not selling him (but i could be talked into it)....abreu though? wilyer? i dunno man, i hard to envision us giving up wilyer and being better in 2027.  we would need sooooo much back, right?  And that kind of goes for contreras too.

If a team is right in it and offers a couple top prospects that are MLb ready at positions of need and maybe an AAAA guy to fill RF you have to think about it.

some teams get right there and will pay. Maybe not likely, but you just need that one GM…