Yankees (Warren) vs Red Sox (Tolle): 6/26/26, 7:10pm

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I have an interesting stat, but no idea what it means.

The RS have the 3rd best BP ERA with a 3.25, but the BP record is 6-17.  The #2 and #4 teams are SD and NYY, with records of 20-12 and 19-10.  I'm curious how our BP ERA could be that good, but our record that bad.

The Red Sox are last in the majors in home runs, making comeback wins and late-game Ws a lot harder.

The Yankees lead the majors in HRs, which can certainly bail out a lot of bullpen issues.

The Padres have Mason Miller, the most automatic closer in the business.

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox are last in the majors in home runs, making comeback wins and late-game Ws a lot harder.

The Yankees lead the majors in HRs, which can certainly bail out a lot of bullpen issues.

The Padres have Mason Miller, the most automatic closer in the business.

It’s always home runs and closers - the two panacea in baseball.

The Sox are last home runs, but they’re tied with Tampa and trail Milwaukee by 3.  Yet somehow those teams are a combined 96-62 despite having worse bullpens than Boston and equal ability to come back.

Home runs get overrated.  Teams have 6200-6400 plate appearances over the course of a season and the top slugging teams hit 200 home runs.  The other 97% of those plate appearances matter.  The Sox  do have offensive issues and need to score more, but if you think a handful of home runs equates to an equal amount of wins, you’ll be disappointed fast.

Mason Miller is not why the Padres, with similar runs scored and run allowed have a much better record. Chapman has 1 BS and Miller’s performance serves to hide the numbers of the other Padre relievers - the ones pitching the bulk of the innings…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, notin said:

It’s always home runs and closers - the two panacea in baseball.

The Sox are last home runs, but they’re tied with Tampa and trail Milwaukee by 3.  Yet somehow those teams are a combined 96-62 despite having worse bullpens than Boston and equal ability to come back.

Home runs get overrated.  Teams have 6200-6400 plate appearances over the course of a season and the top slugging teams hit 200 home runs.  The other 97% of those plate appearances matter.  The Sox  do have offensive issues and need to score more, but if you think a handful of home runs equates to an equal amount of wins, you’ll be disappointed fast.

Mason Miller is not why the Padres, with similar runs scored and run allowed have a much better record. Chapman has 1 BS and Miller’s performance serves to hide the numbers of the other Padre relievers - the ones pitching the bulk of the innings…

Your post is one long half a take.

If Mason Miller is hiding the rest of the Padre bullpen, then why does SD have a winning record? They hit as bad as Boston.

As for home runs, New York's batting order boasts four MVPs (when healthy) and all four were most noted for the longball. Try calling homers overrated to Yankee fans, who know the only way their team can score at home is to pop up to right field.

All my life as a player and fan I've thought HRs were overrated, but not in the current all-or-nothing MLB. On an average team, a couple solo shots are so much more feasible than stringing together say, three singles in an inning -- twice -- to produce two runs.

In this horrid year for the Red Sox, is it so hard to imagine them winning just five more games and into a Wild Card if Breslow had only supplied the roster with a few more big league power bats?

[notin]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Your post is one long half a take.

If Mason Miller is hiding the rest of the Padre bullpen, then why does SD have a winning record? They hit as bad as Boston.

As for home runs, New York's batting order boasts four MVPs (when healthy) and all four were most noted for the longball. Try calling homers overrated to Yankee fans, who know the only way their team can score at home is to pop up to right field.

All my life as a player and fan I've thought HRs were overrated, but not in the current all-or-nothing MLB. On an average team, a couple solo shots are so much more feasible than stringing together say, three singles in an inning -- twice -- to produce two runs.

In this horrid year for the Red Sox, is it so hard to imagine them winning just five more games and into a Wild Card if Breslow had only supplied the roster with a few more big league power bats?

So you’re saying Miller is the reason SD has a winning record?  Just no.  Now what I’m saying is San Diego’s overall bullpen is similar to Boston’s, but the non-Miller pitchers are lifted up by Mason’s stellar year, whereas Boston (nor any other team) has no one like Miller.

Home runs really are.  Like I said, they account for maybe 3% of a team’s PA for elite slugging teams and 2% for bad slugging teams.  Offense comes from having MEN ON BASE. And if the Sox have to string together 3 singles to score, it’s because they’re 29th in MLB in BB%.   Take walks.  They’re gifts.  Putting the ball in play only gets you on base maybe 30% of the time.  Walking? 100% of the time.

(The Sox are last in home runs but second in doubles and second in triples.  They’re not all about 3 hits to a run.)

Look at Milwaukee.  Homer at about the same pace as Boston, but scored nearly 100 more runs.  Why? Second in team OBP, built on being second in BB%.

The easy (ha!) solution for the Sox would be another power bat, but the big issue for their offense has been the disappearance of an on base leadoff hitter.  Duran has been useless.  Gasper? Please…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

So you’re saying Miller is the reason SD has a winning record?  Just no.  Now what I’m saying is San Diego’s overall bullpen is similar to Boston’s, but the non-Miller pitchers are lifted up by Mason’s stellar year, whereas Boston (nor any other team) has no one like Miller.

Home runs really are.  Like I said, they account for maybe 3% of a team’s PA for elite slugging teams and 2% for bad slugging teams.  Offense comes from having MEN ON BASE. And if the Sox have to string together 3 singles to score, it’s because they’re 29th in MLB in BB%.   Take walks.  They’re gifts.  Putting the ball in play only gets you on base maybe 30% of the time.  Walking? 100% of the time.

(The Sox are last in home runs but second in doubles and second in triples.  They’re not all about 3 hits to a run.)

Don't tell me what I'm saying when I asked you why SD wins. It's not a quiz; I honestly don't know why.

Good point about another stat the Sox suck at. Instead of asking you why they don't walk more, I will say this: perhaps Boston's crappy hitters don't walk because they don't know the strike zone. Continued ABS challenge failures only empower pitchers to go right at them and get them out in the strike zone, as well as chasing balls in the dirt, flailing at sweepers and sliders in the other box, and hacking at balls in their eyes. No one gets pitched around because no one is feared, not even Contreras who no one even cares enough about to fight for real.

 

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Padres have Mason Miller, the most automatic closer in the business.

RP'ers 2025-2026

ERA:

1.39 Chapman (before today) 1.81 FIP

1.94 J Duran (1.95 FIP)

1.96 Rogers (2.95 FIP)

1.98 Miller (1.57 FIP)

Saves

53 Munoz (12 Blown Saves)

52 Duran (6 BS)

47 Chapman (just 3 BS, and only 1 this year)

45 Iglesias (5 BS)

44 R Suarez (6 BS)

43 Bednar (4) & Miller (10 BS, but none in 2026)

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

we do have 8 blown saves out of 24 chances.

Real saves, or the type where a pitcher comes in in the 7th with the bases loaded, no outs, and he allows one run, and gets a blown save?

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't tell me what I'm saying when I asked you why SD wins. It's not a quiz; I honestly don't know why.

Good point about another stat the Sox suck at. Instead of asking you why they don't walk more, I will say this: perhaps Boston's crappy hitters don't walk because they don't know the strike zone. Continued ABS challenge failures only empower pitchers to go right at them and get them out in the strike zone, as well as chasing balls in the dirt, flailing at sweepers and sliders in the other box, and hacking at balls in their eyes. No one gets pitched around because no one is feared, not even Contreras who no one even cares enough about to fight for real.

 

To continue - Sox hitters probably don’t know the strike zone because it’s a young lineup.   And if they did do wuth Durbin, they’re probably preaching some new swing with all the other young hitters rather than letting them be the hitters that made them special to begin with.

Drawing walks is a skill.  Roman Anthony excels at it. Durbin? Yeah somewhat.  Mayer and Narvaez are both a little too aggressive, probably adjusting to some swing tweak they’ve each been told to adopt (100% unsupported personal theory). 
 

But with Anthony out and Duran obsoleteting himself, the top of the Sox lineup is pretty neutered.  This lineup isn’t much different than last year post-Devers, and it’s arguable that Contreras/Durbin is an upgrade over Bregman/Toro/Lowe.   But runs are down and one solid root cause is weak OBP, especially at the top of the lineup.

And not just Boston either.  The Mets lineup features one of, if not THE best hitter in the game today.  But they are another horrible offense.  Why? Well for starters they traded their high powered OBP machine leadoff hitter for infield defense, literally.  

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Well for starters they traded their high powered OBP machine leadoff hitter for infield defense, literally.  

If it is helpful, the RS are ranked #29 in 1st inning OBP and 30th in 1st inning runs scored.  Duran should be leading off.  Not because he is ideal, but because no one else can.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

If it is helpful, the RS are ranked #29 in 1st inning OBP and 30th in 1st inning runs scored.  Duran should be leading off.  Not because he is ideal, but because no one else can.

We sucked with Duran leading off.

He sucked leading off.

He has the worst OBP (.255) on the active roster. (Even Narvaez at .273 is better.)

He shouldn't even be batting 5th, anymore.

2026:

.267 1st

.333 3rd

.188 5th

.308 6th

[notin]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Real saves, or the type where a pitcher comes in in the 7th with the bases loaded, no outs, and he allows one run, and gets a blown save?

It’s actually 6 blown saves, and yes, the type you can get by the sixth inning…

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s actually 6 blown saves, and yes, the type you can get by the sixth inning…

The existence of the blown hold continues to be denied.    

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The existence of the blown hold continues to be denied.    

Thats because it’s not a hold until you leave the game with the lead…

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Thats because it’s not a hold until you leave the game with the lead…

Well, we could be arbitrary about it and call it a blown hold if you give up the lead in an inning prior to the 9th.  

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, notin said:

It’s actually 6 blown saves, and yes, the type you can get by the sixth inning…

• Watson -0-
• Weissert (2) 6th and 7th innings
• Whitlock (1) 6th
• Coulombe (1) 7th
• Moran (1) 5-7th
• Sammy -0-
• Slaten (1) 7th
• Kelly (1) 4-5th
• Guerrero -0- 

None of these are blown saves, since none of them were in a save position.

 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, we could be arbitrary about it and call it a blown hold if you give up the lead in an inning prior to the 9th.  

The BS is one of the worst stats in BB.  Kelly got a blown same because he failed to hold a lead in the 4th inning.  2 of the blown saves were in a game where the pitch allowed -0- ERs.