Red Sox (Bennett) vs Rockies (Feltner): 6/22/26, 8:40pm

[FredLynn]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Not really. 
 

Unless there is a Bryce Harper or Paul Skenes available - a clear top talent - the MLB draft is largely a crapshoot.  Most years have plenty of good players in the later rounds.  Not to mention, it’s the slowest possible way to rebuild a franchise and gives the Sox more excuses to stay cheap..,

I’ll take my chances with a top five pick and you can take your chances with a bottom five pick. Chances are I’ll come out ahead most times. 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It was an issue all winter for the diehard baseball fans who know that kind of batting order craves a balance with a mix of well-respected and feared veteran bats that stress out foes, drive up pitch counts, and elicit "mistake pitches" for the young-uns to feast upon.

Like they have in Tampa? And Milwaukee?

The Sox are down to big contributors from last year with Story stupidly deciding to play injured and Duran suddenly forgetting how to hit.  They wouldn’t be the scariest lineup, but it might have been adequate for their staff if these two could replicate ladt year.  They did score 4.84 RPG (8th in MLB) even after trading away Devers.

Throw in 4 bats with less than a year, and 2/3 of the lineup is exposed.  

[FredLynn]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Like by adding a lottery?

First of all, ranking draft csndidates by talent is far from an exact science, which is why no two mock drafts are the same. Not to mention, picking which high school player has the brightest future 4 years from now is an even more difficult task.  Houston had the number one overall pick 3 years in a row and only selected one major leaguer who had an actual career….

It’s kinda silly to deny that the higher the draft pick the better the chance of choosing a more talented player. It’s why there is a draft order rather than all teams just picking a number out of a hat. Is it a guaranteed that if you have a high draft pick you’ll get a top talent? Of course not. It’s a matter of odds. The higher the pick the higher the likelihood that the player will contribute more.

So….JUST LOSE BABY! LOSE!

[illinoisredsox]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Let’s NOT say attendance dipped significantly the rest of the season. Tickets for the most part has already been sold. Moot point.🙈

Plus in a lot of cases, visiting fans will scoop up what's left, especially for teams that are reasonably close by (Yankees, Blue Jays, etc).  Heck, 5000 Scotsmen showed up last week for multiple games; their $ spend the same for Henry as New England fan $ do.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’ll take my chances with a top five pick and you can take your chances with a bottom five pick. Chances are I’ll come out ahead most times. 

Great. And that will help in 2030.  Any recommendations until then?

[notin]

1 minute ago, illinoisredsox said:

Plus in a lot of cases, visiting fans will scoop up what's left, especially for teams that are reasonably close by (Yankees, Blue Jays, etc).  Heck, 5000 Scotsmen showed up last week for multiple games; their $ spend the same for Henry as New England fan $ do.

But the bottom line is if ticket sales do drop, zero chance Henry decides that means time to soend heavy and 100% he takes it as a sign to spend less..,

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Great. And that will help in 2030.  Any recommendations until then?

Yes

Fire BresLOW and get a GM who actually knows what he is doing. . PAY FOR top talent on the FA market. Make trades that are likely to help the team. And PAY FOR the talent we already have to stay put while not handing out stupid extensions to players of questionable value. Cut bait with the deadwood on the team immediately.

Id make an excellent GM I think.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Yes

Fire BresLOW and get a GM who actually knows what he is doing. . PAY FOR top talent on the FA market. Make trades that are likely to help the team. And PAY FOR the talent we already have to stay put while not handing out stupid extensions to players of questionable value. Cut bait with the deadwood on the team immediately.

Id make an excellent GM I think.

What established, smart GM would want to work under Henry at this point? Uproot your family to get fired and smeared in 3 years? Pass. 

[cp176]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I think Arias is the better defensive SS, but I like that you’re not writing Mayer off just yet...

I made a mistake there I meant to say Arias to short and Mayer to second but I could live with it either way.  As for Mayer, I think that he is extremely talented and will someday be much more than worth the wait.  

[moonslav59]

Maybe having a set rotation for the next 5 years. Of course, having and needing SP'er depth should always be a concern and priority.

For 2027, our SP'er depth might not need any additions, but that is relying on returning IL pitchers.

The plan?

Crochet replaces Gray

Houck, Crawford & Oviedo

Bello to pen?

Eyanson, Holobetz, Uberstine, Wehunt, Paez, Rivera, Anderson

(AA in 2027? Witherspoon, Phillips, Brown, Futrell, Ingrassia)

Is that enough?

On the everyday side of the ledger, some serious work and re-working needs to be done, and the interesting thing is that only IKF is not under team control for 2027. Some major decisions need to be made that include moving on from some players, either by trading them or demoting them to  the bench or AAA depth. DFA'ing Yoshida may also be an option. Dumping Story could be another. Trading Duran will be the hot issue, once again, if he's not dealt at this deadline.

C: _____________ Narvaez & Gasper (Trade Wong?)

1B: Contreras & Romy

2B/3B: _____________, Durbin & Mayer (platoon?) Romy

SS: ______________, Mayer (or Arias?)

LF: Anthony (Duran?)

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: ____________, (Yoshida/Duran/Anthony?)

I am certain Brez & Co. will not be adding 4 major pieces, this summer/winter, and probably adding 3 is a stretch. Adding two might be barely enough, if both are big bats. We'll still need others to do better than 2026 to win.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, cp176 said:

I made a mistake there I meant to say Arias to short and Mayer to second but I could live with it either way.  As for Mayer, I think that he is extremely talented and will someday be much more than worth the wait.  

Mayer is already a plus defender. He's missed a lot of development time due to injuries, so a longer leash on the bat makes sense. I hope he can get to .750+ on a consistent basis, and maybe even near .800. I suppose he could do even better, and that would be gravy.

[JAG]

45 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’ll take my chances with a top five pick and you can take your chances with a bottom five pick. Chances are I’ll come out ahead most times. 

maybe....2021 draft pick 4 Marcelo Mayer avg. 221, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 18 run, 44 hits....pick 22 Colson Montgomery  avg. 218, 20 HR, 45 RBI, 36 run, 59 hits......pick 62 James Wood avg. 273, 20 HR, 49 RBI, 70 runs, 82 hits

I really wish the Red Sox could get something right, anything, the yankees who never get high picks ever have two homegrown talents competing for the MVP and the CY Young. Cam Schlittler drafted 220 in the 7th round and Ben Rice drafted 363 in the 12th round

[FredLynn]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What established, smart GM would want to work under Henry at this point? Uproot your family to get fired and smeared in 3 years? Pass. 

One that is well paid perhaps?

[FredLynn]

13 minutes ago, JAG said:

maybe....2021 draft pick 4 Marcelo Mayer avg. 221, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 18 run, 44 hits....pick 22 Colson Montgomery  avg. 218, 20 HR, 45 RBI, 36 run, 59 hits......pick 62 James Wood avg. 273, 20 HR, 49 RBI, 70 runs, 82 hits

I really wish the Red Sox could get something right, anything, the yankees who never get high picks ever have two homegrown talents competing for the MVP and the CY Young. Cam Schlittler drafted 220 in the 7th round and Ben Rice drafted 363 in the 12th round

Its an odds thing, not a guarantee. This (below) is from an AI search when I asked the question "do higher draft picks tend to perform better than lower draft picks": 

"To determine if higher baseball draft picks tend to be better than lower picks, consider the following points:

1. Historical data shows that higher picks generally have better career statistics.
2. Top picks often come from elite college programs or high school talent, indicating higher potential.
3. Teams invest more resources in scouting and evaluating higher draft picks.
4. Higher picks usually receive larger signing bonuses, attracting more commitment to development.
5. Success rates for higher picks in reaching the majors are significantly higher than for lower picks.
6. However, there are notable exceptions where lower picks have outperformed higher ones."

Just lose baby...just lose!

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, JAG said:

maybe....2021 draft pick 4 Marcelo Mayer avg. 221, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 18 run, 44 hits....pick 22 Colson Montgomery  avg. 218, 20 HR, 45 RBI, 36 run, 59 hits......pick 62 James Wood avg. 273, 20 HR, 49 RBI, 70 runs, 82 hits

I really wish the Red Sox could get something right, anything, the yankees who never get high picks ever have two homegrown talents competing for the MVP and the CY Young. Cam Schlittler drafted 220 in the 7th round and Ben Rice drafted 363 in the 12th round

The jury is still out on "getting it right" or not on many of Brez's draft picks and IFAs.

2024:

12 Montgomery (part of Crochet trade)

50 Tolle (looks great, so far)

86 Neely (meh)

115 Ehrhard (traded)

237 Cason (TBD) 267 Hudson White (TBD) 297 Futrell (TBD)

2025

15 Witherspoon (TBD)

33 Phillips (TBD)

75 Godbout (TBD)

87 Eyanson (Could be the major steal of the draft)

118 Mason White (TBD)

178 Finley, 238 Brown, 328 B Morgan & 388 Winnay TBD

IFAs

$10K for Primera could be the steal of the decade.

$40K Azocar (looking real good)

$500K Delzine & Ramos(TBD)

$950K Rivas (TBD)

$1.2M Brito (TBD) 

$1.4M Soto & Silverio (TBD)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

I’ll take my chances with a top five pick and you can take your chances with a bottom five pick. Chances are I’ll come out ahead most times. 

Agreed, but it's funny you trust the Sox to break their tradition on doing better with lower picks.

"Historical data" shows the Sox suck with higher picks:

2020 to 2025 (Post DD era)

All Top 10:

4 Mayer (2021)

12 Montgomery (traded)

14 Teel (traded)

15 Witherspoon

17 Yorke

All Top 11-30:

24 Romero

All 31-60

33 Phillips

41 C Coffey (traded)

50 Tolle

50 Zanetello

Selected 61+ (2025>2024>2023...)

75 Godbout, 87 Eyanson

86 Neeley, 148 Clarke

83 A Anderson, 132 KC, 151 Early

79 Anthony, 129 Meidroth, 189 Hoppe (traded) 279 Brannon, 369 Mullins 

40 Fabian (did not sign) 556 Uberstine

89 Jordan (traded) 118 Wu-Yelland, 148 Drohan (traded)

Ben & DD notables:

7 Benintendi (2015)

7 Trey Bell (2013)

12 Groome & 118 Dalbec(2016)

24 Houck & 491 K Crawford (2017)

26 Casas & 220 Duran (2018)

26 Chavis & 33 Kopech 2014

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Its an odds thing, not a guarantee. This (below) is from an AI search

Not doing yourself any favors. 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Not doing yourself any favors. 

It’s not my intent to do anyone any favors. Just pointing out the facts to those who are open to digesting them.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

It’s not my intent to do anyone any favors. Just pointing out the facts to those who are open to digesting them.

Let me know when you find some. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

It’s not my intent to do anyone any favors. Just pointing out the facts to those who are open to digesting them.

Do the facts of the Sox history of drafting high-middle-low matter?

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Do the facts of the Sox history of drafting high-middle-low matter?

Not a bit. Not only do you have to draft high but you also must make good choices as to who you draft. The FLOPS have sucked at that.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Let me know when you find some. 

I gave you the facts. You didn't like them. Too bad.

For the purposes of review since your memory seems to be short: 

To determine if higher baseball draft picks tend to be better, consider the following points:

• Historical data shows that higher draft picks often have better career statistics.
• Top picks usually come from elite college programs or high school talent, indicating higher skill levels.
• Teams invest significant resources in scouting and analysis, favoring top prospects.
• Many successful MLB players were high draft picks, but not all top picks succeed.
• Injuries and development paths can impact a player's career, regardless of draft position.
• Overall, while higher picks tend to have better outcomes, exceptions exist.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Not a bit. Not only do you have to draft high but you also must make good choices as to who you draft. The FLOPS have sucked at that.

Just curious why you have hope they will in this area and not other areas.

I'm not disagreeing- just curious.

Our best picks seem to be comp picks, picks after rounds one and two and even very late picks.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I gave you the facts. You didn't like them. Too bad.

For the purposes of review since your memory seems to be short: 

To determine if higher baseball draft picks tend to be better, consider the following points:

• Historical data shows that higher draft picks often have better career statistics.
• Top picks usually come from elite college programs or high school talent, indicating higher skill levels.
• Teams invest significant resources in scouting and analysis, favoring top prospects.
• Many successful MLB players were high draft picks, but not all top picks succeed.
• Injuries and development paths can impact a player's career, regardless of draft position.
• Overall, while higher picks tend to have better outcomes, exceptions exist.

I believe this, but this is a statement that the facts prove your point.

It's not actually the data/facts that are given.

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Just curious why you have hope they will in this area and not other areas.

I'm not disagreeing- just curious.

Our best picks seem to be comp picks, picks after rounds one and two and even very late picks.

I think that Breslow is history and that I am hopeful ownership chooses a new GM that can make better choices. Breslow has made a few good decisions, but too few IMO.

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I believe this, but this is a statement that the facts prove your point.

It's not actually the data/facts that are given.

The bottom large font bold print is a statement of fact without presenting the data. Its a summary of the data. Its also common sense that, in general, higher draft picks will tend to do better as pros. Otherwise why even have a draft order? Why not just let all the teams pick a number out of a hat?

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The bottom large font bold print is a statement of fact without presenting the data. Its a summary of the data. Its also common sense that, in general, higher draft picks will tend to do better as pros. Otherwise why even have a draft order? Why not just let all the teams pick a number out of a hat?

I said I agree with your position.

I'm hoping we can do better with a higher pick that we've done with the last few times. Anyway, we are talking draft 2027 and then a few more years to see results.

The MLB draft is not as certain as other drafts. I don't view it with much excitement. I thought we did pretty well the last few drafts, but it hasn't gotten us anywhere special... so far.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I think that Breslow is history and that I am hopeful ownership chooses a new GM that can make better choices. Breslow has made a few good decisions, but too few IMO.

I think Brez gets another year.

On good decisions vs bad, it's hard to grade non moves, and I think we both agree he gets a big "F" for not making another big bat addition (or two.)

On his actual moves made, it doesn't look as bad to me, as it might to you and others, but yes, "too few" good ones.

My subjective view on the major moves (note almost all are still TBD for the most part) Not counting draft and IFA:

In approximate order of importance/cost...

10 biggest

B Crochet trade

C+ Devers dump

A- Suarez signing

B- Bregman signing (and not re-signing)

A- Contreras trade

A Chapman signing & extension

B+ Gray trade

B- Crochet extension

D+ Giolito signing

F Buehler signing

_________________

10 Moderate choices made:

B- Verdugo trade

B+ O'Neil signing

D+/TBD Harrison-Durbin 

D+/TBD Priester trade 

C Anthony extension

A- Rafaela extension

A- Romy waiver claim

 

B- Slaten trade

F Hendriks signing

B Bennett for Perales trade

__________________

Please feel free to call me out for missing some equally or more important choices made that should be listed.

Some might be moderate or the next tier of 10: Bello extension, KC extension, Justin Wilson, Narvaez, IKF, Oviedo, Moran, Coulombe, Hicks & Sandler, May & Matz, Danny Jansen, L Garcia & L Sims,  Bernardino, Booser (get & trade)Watson, Criswell, NLowe, Gasper, Toro, Paxton, T Guerrero, I Campbell

Again, "TBD" should probably be the current grades, but so far...

Looking at the 2026 results and the unbalanced roster, the final grade is worse than the sum of all these parts combined.

 

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do the facts of the Sox history of drafting high-middle-low matter?

Not really, since Breslow and his team have drafted twice.  That we have seen a couple players already in MLB from those drafts is pretty good…

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Brez gets another year.

On good decisions vs bad, it's hard to grade non moves, and I think we both agree he gets a big "F" for not making another big bat addition (or two.)

On his actual moves made, it doesn't look as bad to me, as it might to you and others, but yes, "too few" good ones.

My subjective view on the major moves (note almost all are still TBD for the most part) Not counting draft and IFA:

In approximate order of importance/cost...

10 biggest

B Crochet trade

C+ Devers dump

A- Suarez signing

B- Bregman signing (and not re-signing)

A- Contreras trade

A Chapman signing & extension

B+ Gray trade

B- Crochet extension

D+ Giolito signing

F Buehler signing

_________________

10 Moderate choices made:

B- Verdugo trade

B+ O'Neil signing

D+/TBD Harrison-Durbin 

D+/TBD Priester trade 

C Anthony extension

A- Rafaela extension

A- Romy waiver claim

 

B- Slaten trade

F Hendriks signing

B Bennett for Perales trade

__________________

Please feel free to call me out for missing some equally or more important choices made that should be listed.

Some might be moderate or the next tier of 10: Bello extension, KC extension, Justin Wilson, Narvaez, IKF, Oviedo, Moran, Coulombe, Hicks & Sandler, May & Matz, Danny Jansen, L Garcia & L Sims,  Bernardino, Booser (get & trade)Watson, Criswell, NLowe, Gasper, Toro, Paxton, T Guerrero, I Campbell

Again, "TBD" should probably be the current grades, but so far...

Looking at the 2026 results and the unbalanced roster, the final grade is worse than the sum of all these parts combined.

 

 

I kinda don’t want to go through the list right now. Other than to give him a B+ for dumping Devers. He’s an incredibly self centered player who I wouldn’t want on my team at all. Not sure if you have been following how self centered he has been in SF lately. He refused to come out of a game recently when the manager came to remove him for a pinch runner, waving the manager away. 
But since you agree with me about the draft position being meaningful then why not plan for the best possible future by losing as many of these meaningless games as possible? 
I always want what’s best for the team and this year it means losing.