Red Sox Trim Opening Day Roster, Option Kristian Campbell

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He'd probably be a terrible starting pitcher even with the 40 bombs. 

Fair

[moonslav59]

It would be a good thing to have to decide how to get KC some playing time.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It would be a good thing to have to decide how to get KC some playing time.

First he’s got to produce, and find his way back up to Boston. Then even if he produces at Woo it’s trades, or injury to get him there.

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, notin said:

And that it’s only 2026 and they’ve already given up on the 2023 4th round pick and former consensus top 3 prospect because he had a bad month and his utility infielder AAV now looks like an overpay…

He is worth the risk of the extension.  If you don't extend him and he ends up playing so well that he prices himself out of a future Red Sox contract, we'd be wondering why we didn't extend him when we had the chance.

[Kimmi]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Unless he pans out.  
 

Imagine a recent history where the Sox signed Mookie to a similar extension before he established himself and realized what he was worth.

Signing a consensus top three prospect to a contract with an AAV about $1mill or so north of what it takes to sign Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is a worthwhile gamble every time…

Well said.  Thank you.

[notin]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

They carried him as a platoon / 4th OF'er, who they were fine just not playing everyday.  My only point here is "you dont call up a prospect unless you have a full time role for him" - is not applied 100% like it use to be.  Of course, most future players are growing in the minors - but there is something to be said for being around an MLB ballclub as well.  And its not like they cant get reps against ML pitching before/after games.

It was never applied 100%, because even some prospects eventually reveal their lower ceilings.  Go back and look at any BA Top 100 list, and you will notice roughly 25-30 names on each list never make it tonMLB beyond a September call up, and another 25-30 names settle in as utility infielders and middle relievers for however long their careers are…

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

It was never applied 100%, because even some prospects eventually reveal their lower ceilings.  Go back and look at any BA Top 100 list, and you will notice roughly 25-30 names on each list never make it tonMLB beyond a September call up, and another 25-30 names settle in as utility infielders and middle relievers for however long their careers are…

What's the success rate on top 5 or 10 prospects?

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, Old Red said:

Not everyone moons over Suspects. Some wait to they actually produce in a big league uniform.

Some of us think of these things as assets.  More assets are always better.

[notin]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What's the success rate on top 5 or 10 prospects?

Honestly not as great as you think.  There are plenty of top 5 prospects who simply never panned out.  A few names that leap to mind include Corey Patterson, Jesus Montero, Ruben Mateo, Lastings Milledge, Bobby Seay, Brandon Wood, etc.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Honestly not as great as you think.  There are plenty of top 5 prospects who simply never panned out.  A few names that leap to mind include Corey Patterson, Jesus Montero, Ruben Mateo, Lastings Milledge, Bobby Seay, Brandon Wood, etc.

Plenty (agreeing with you), also to bring it back KC was not a top 3 prospect.  Hes a top 3 red sox prospect and the bust rate of those is prob close to 50/50.

Now im not saying that KC is a bust.  Im saying that I dont fear using him in a short side platoon role this year if he proves he can mash lefties and we need the help. I would make a conscious effort to make sure he also gets at least some game at-bats against righties.  I also make him take at-bats between games.

Ive long believed that its quite hard to ruin a player.  Calling him a year early, moving him around positionally, to much time on the bench....In the vast majority of cases it matters not.  Talent finds its level.

[notin]

23 hours ago, Old Red said:

Not everyone moons over Suspects. Some wait to they actually produce in a big league uniform.

Teams quite often don’t.  Probably feel overall that the risk of moderately overpaying a few who don’t live up to the hype is far less costly than waiting for players to establish themselves and realize their worth.   The Sox are paying Anthony and Campbell a total of $180mill.  Anthony alone might be worth a contract more than double that total in a couple years…

[notin]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Plenty (agreeing with you), also to bring it back KC was not a top 3 prospect.  Hes a top 3 red sox prospect and the bust rate of those is prob close to 50/50.

Now im not saying that KC is a bust.  Im saying that I dont fear using him in a short side platoon role this year if he proves he can mash lefties and we need the help. I would make a conscious effort to make sure he also gets at least some game at-bats against righties.  I also make him take at-bats between games.

Ive long believed that its quite hard to ruin a player.  Calling him a year early, moving him around positionally, to much time on the bench....In the vast majority of cases it matters not.  Talent finds its level.

Campbell was the pre-2025 BA #4 prospect in MLB.  Baseball Prospectus had him #3 overall.  Again, in all of MLB, not just on the Sox…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Some of us think of these things as assets.  More assets are always better.

Potential assets, and yes, the more the better.

The higher ranked, the better, too.

Of course, not all prospects or even top prospects work out, but every star was one a prospect.

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell was the pre-2025 BA #4 prospect in MLB.  Baseball Prospectus had him #3 overall.  Again, in all of MLB, not just on the Sox…

Did we have all 3? Pre-2025 Anthony was 1 or 2.  And was Mayer the other?

I hadnt realized that KC had climbed that high.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Did we have all 3? Pre-2025 Anthony was 1 or 2.  And was Mayer the other?

I hadnt realized that KC had climbed that high.

I think BA had KC 4th to start the 2025 season.

Anthony was BA's #1 prospect in Sept 2024 and stayed there for most of 2025.

Mayer was #10 before the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

[moonslav59]

After three major graduations, plus Narvaez, MLB.com has these Sox ranked highly:

19. Tolle (18th on fangraphs)

31. Arias (14th on fangraphs)

56. Early (38th)

84 Witherspoon (96th)

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Ive long believed that its quite hard to ruin a player.

Maybe, but maybe not.  There is a development process involved.  Otherwise, the elite athletes would go from HS to the majors.  Also, while it doesn't matter to KC, you should try to get a players best 6 years.  Teams like the Angels promote guys that aren't ready, and waste 3 service years hoping they adapt.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Maybe, but maybe not.  There is a development process involved.  Otherwise, the elite athletes would go from HS to the majors.  Also, while it doesn't matter to KC, you should try to get a players best 6 years.  Teams like the Angels promote guys that aren't ready, and waste 3 service years hoping they adapt.

Agreed.

It looks like Early will play enough on the big club, this year, that his clock will start. We may gain one more year for Tolle, if he stays in AAA long enough. Of course, either could be extended, anytime.

As of now, we have these guys under control until age...

32 Campbell (2034) & Crawford (2028)

31 Crochet (2031), Rafaela (2031) & Narvaez (2031)

30 Bello (2030)

29 Anthony (2034) & Abreu (2029)

28 Early (2030) & Tolle (2031)