Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

The 2021 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 90 games

That was the old format.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Fangraphs projects Boston to win 90 games, tying them with Toronto to for first place in the AL East.  They predict the Yankees to win 87, come in 4th in the AL East, and miss the postseason entirely…

I see this...

87-75 NYY (SEA w 87 wins, too)

86-76 BOS & TOR

85-77 BAL (DET w 85 wins, too)

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Cool!  So Fred is predicting us to finish 1st!  

4th. I think we are marginally better than the Rays.

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, the GM is a "flop" not the team.

You tend to throw terms around very loosely, then end up back-tracking, goal post-moving or changing the argument's focus.

You blame JH, sometimes, when we spent enough AAV, this winter to sign Alonso and Bregman.

You blame Brez for adding Contreras & Gray over Alonso- and Suarez, Durbin & Kiner-Falefa over Bregman. 

Soon, it will all be Cora's fault.

Rince & repeat.

Correct. Breslow is an incompetent FLOP and Henry is a dishonest cheapskate. 

Quite a franchise, isn't it. It could be so much better.

[FredLynn]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Doesn't make sense. 

Had they signed Schwarber or Alonso do you think we would have won more games than the dumpster products on offense we did sign?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That was the old format.

It was the old format of a play-in game, and 10 teams making the playoffs (4 in AL & 4 in NL)

Now, it's 12 teams (6+6) That makes a big difference. It would take very little parity for a 90 win team to not make the playoffs. We may not even see an 89 team miss out. Only one 88 win team was the worst record to MAKE the playoffs. If the Sox win 88-90 and miss the playoffs, it would be a first.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Had they signed Schwarber or Alonso do you think we would have won more games than the dumpster products on offense we did sign?

We'd be a very unbalanced team with 4 DHs and no 3Bman. I assume we still trade for Durbin and Gray. (No Contreras trade.)

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We'd be a very unbalanced team with 4 DHs and no 3Bman. I assume we still trade for Durbin and Gray. (No Contreras trade.)

Mayer at 3B; Alonso at 1B; Schwarber at DH. Its really not that tough to figure out. Instead they got the immortal IKF and Mickey Gasper and Kaleb Durbin. I can't tell you how impressed I am with Breslow's efforts this offseason.

I really can't.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Mayer at 3B; Alonso at 1B; Schwarber at DH. Its really not that tough to figure out. Instead they got the immortal IKF and Mickey Gasper and Kaleb Durbin. I can't tell you how impressed I am with Breslow's efforts this offseason.

I really can't.

Okay, and DHam at 2B. Got it.

Do we still have Gray and Oviedo?

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, and DHam at 2B. Got it.

Do we still have Gray and Oviedo?

We are talking about position players. I think Breslow did an adequate job fortifying the rotation. Thats why he didn't score an F in my book. Romy could play 2B and we certainly would have enough in the way of utility IF without scoring the dumpster products we signed like IKF and Gasper. You know as well as I know what our needs were. They remain unmet.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Had they signed Schwarber or Alonso do you think we would have won more games than the dumpster products on offense we did sign?

If they sign Schwarber instead of Suarez and make no other corresponding moves to this roster, it's a very terrible roster (Casas AND Masa AND Schwarber AND Duran all playing DH?). 

I believe that Contreras will be better than Alonso over the next 2 seasons. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Mayer at 3B; Alonso at 1B; Schwarber at DH. Its really not that tough to figure out. Instead they got the immortal IKF and Mickey Gasper and Kaleb Durbin. I can't tell you how impressed I am with Breslow's efforts this offseason.

I really can't.

So no Conteras, Gray and Suarez, but Alonso and Schwarber? 

Terrible defense. Pitching is a big question mark. The current team is better TBH.

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they sign Schwarber instead of Suarez and make no other corresponding moves to this roster, it's a very terrible roster (Casas AND Masa AND Schwarber AND Duran all playing DH?). 

I believe that Contreras will be better than Alonso over the next 2 seasons. 

I didn't say sign Schwarber INSTEAD of Suarez. They should have signed BOTH of them. We didn't need BOTH Schwarber AND Alonso. One would have been fine. Casas is a problem with or without Schwarber now that they signed Contreras. I'd cut our losses and get whatever we can for Masa even if its a bag of golf balls. Duran can play OF, obviously.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

And the 2026 Boston Red Flops will miss the playoffs despite winning 88-90 games. Take it to the bank.

There you go, that's all you had to say. 

Bold take.....bold take indeed.  Not completely unprecedented......but bold. 

 

Like, somewhere at sometime on earth some guy said "hit me" showing 19 and pulled a 2.  You could end up being a genius but saying they could win 90 games and miss the playoffs is historically a BAD bet

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We are talking about position players. I think Breslow did an adequate job fortifying the rotation. Thats why he didn't score an F in my book. Romy could play 2B and we certainly would have enough in the way of utility IF without scoring the dumpster products we signed like IKF and Gasper. You know as well as I know what our needs were. They remain unmet.

Well, pitching and defense is half the game, and you just mentioned adding two guys that basically spent the whole winter budget.

Blame JH for making that so, but now Brez was put in a bind by your suggestion. Maybe he still makes the Gray and Durbin trades, and we have decent 2B/3Bmen, but you didn't say it.

We are also short the #2 SP'er we needed, and assuming the Gray trade happens, everyone else is moved up one slot in the rotation and depth.

I'm not saying the team would be worse, but we'd have one more DH to add to the 3-4 we already have, and Alonso should probably be a DH, too.

Schwarber, Alonso, Masa, Duran, Casas & Campbell all but the blocked Duran are better at DH than a position.

I know you discount defense and position slotting, but we'd be a better team with Alonso OR Schwarber plus a #2SPer and or 3B/2Bman- not adding two DHs.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I didn't say sign Schwarber INSTEAD of Suarez. They should have signed BOTH of them. We didn't need BOTH Schwarber AND Alonso. One would have been fine. Casas is a problem with or without Schwarber now that they signed Contreras. I'd cut our losses and get whatever we can for Masa even if its a bag of golf balls. Duran can play OF, obviously.

Sorry I read and not "or." My bad.

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, pitching and defense is half the game, and you just mentioned adding two guys that basically spent the whole winter budget.

Blame JH for making that so, but now Brez was put in a bind by your suggestion. Maybe he still makes the Gray and Durbin trades, and we have decent 2B/3Bmen, but you didn't say it.

We are also short the #2 SP'er we needed, and assuming the Gray trade happens, everyone else is moved up one slot in the rotation and depth.

I'm not saying the team would be worse, but we'd have one more DH to add to the 3-4 we already have, and Alonso should probably be a DH, too.

Schwarber, Alonso, Masa, Duran, Casas & Campbell all but the blocked Duran are better at DH than a position.

I know you discount defense and position slotting, but we'd be a better team with Alonso OR Schwarber plus a #2SPer and or 3B/2Bman- not adding two DHs.

Thats what I wrote above: EITHER Schwarber OR Alonso PLUS Suarez and Gray. Get rid of the useless Masa and try to trade Duran and Casas. Having Anthony and one of Schwarber or Alonso would stack our lineup. Of course this didn't happen, and everyone here knows why.

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sorry I read and not "or." My bad.

You knew as well as anyone what our needs were entering the offseason: a bona fide #2SP and at least one big IF bat. We got half of that, and its not enough for us to seriously contend for a ring. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Thats what I wrote above: EITHER Schwarber OR Alonso PLUS Suarez and Gray. Get rid of the useless Masa and try to trade Duran and Casas. Having Anthony and one of Schwarber or Alonso would stack our lineup. Of course this didn't happen, and everyone here knows why.

So if they made a lot more moves and spent more money, would they be a better team? 

[FredLynn]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

So if they made a lot more moves and spent more money, would they be a better team? 

They didn't need to make a LOT more moves, just the RIGHT moves. Yes, it would have cost Henry more money. Too bad. He certainly has the revenue to do it. If he was honest about wanting to win thats what he would have done. Signing Alonso OR Schwarber and not signing the dumpster dive IF products that WERE signed is all it would take. Just a few changes. And yes, we would have a better team if they did what I suggested: a revamped rotation and a formidable lineup.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

They didn't need to make a LOT more moves, just the RIGHT moves. Yes, it would have cost Henry more money. Too bad. He certainly has the revenue to do it. If he was honest about wanting to win thats what he would have done. Signing Alonso OR Schwarber and not signing the dumpster dive IF products that WERE signed is all it would take. Just a few changes. And yes, we would have a better team if they did what I suggested: a revamped rotation and a formidable lineup.

The only IF signing was IKF. He's fine as a backup. I don't see how anyone could possibly care about him when Story and Mayer will be starting and have a history of missing significant time. 

Alonso and Schwarber are both DH's TBH. The Sox could have put them at 1b, but it would have been dumb. Sox would have still needed to figure out 1B until Casas was ready and we really don't know if that will be the case. 

At this point, we know the ultimate ceiling of this club may always be dictated by however much JH wants to spend. He should spend more. Most of us agree with that. It's just not the reality we live in. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

You knew as well as anyone what our needs were entering the offseason: a bona fide #2SP and at least one big IF bat. We got half of that, and its not enough for us to seriously contend for a ring. 

I did think and still do, that we coulda-shoulda added just 3 key pieces:

Big bat (1B/3B/2B)

SP#2

Nice bat (2B/3B/1B)

We got the SP2 (Suarez) and the nice bat (1B) Contreras.

We both agree we missed out on the BIG Bat (2B/3B) and you were fine with DH, instead. (I'd have been fine with Schwarber or Alonso at DH or Alonso at 1B over Contreras plus a "nice bat" at 2B/3B. I was crying for K Marte half the winter. I even was okay with E Suarez, but I cooled on that idea as the winter progressed. That's how much I wanted a second bat.

I agree that we made a mistake, and even had a chance to fix it by trading an OF'er for a big bat 3B/2Bman up to maybe even now. We could have chose to not get Gray and used the trade pieces and money for a bigger bat than Durbin, too.

I'm not saying nor never have said Brez had a perfect winter. We missed on one of our top 3 needs. We added 6 significant pieces when we needed 3 major pieces. I've been talking quality over quantity all winter. I think we could have done better, too and way better.

That does not mean I stick my head in the sand and poison my view on what we did do to improve the team, either. (I'm not saying you did, since you are always hypercritical, if we don't do what you specifically wanted to do.)

We added a very nice #2 SP'er. (I'd call Suarez a clear #1, as I think he is a top 30 SP'er- maybe even top 20.) We then added a solid #3 that might be more like a #2, depending on what you look at- Sonny Gray. He should help the team, immensely. I don't ignore this because I'm pouting over not signing Alonso. (I did not want Breggie and even near what we offered.) We added Oviedo, who may or may not end up better than Fitts/Dobbins/Harrison/Drohan. We added Contreras, who I think will hit as well as Bregman in 2026. He filled one of the 3 needs.

It basically comes down to we added Gray, Durbin, I K-F & Oviedo, instead of Alonso or Schwarber. I do not see that as a major loss, despite leaving the team unbalanced, due to a weaker than need be offense. I also cringe at having 4 OF'ers and 3 DHs (Masa, Casas, Campbell.) Our plan is to DH and OF'er. WTF!!!! I'm not happy about that at all.

I'm glad we still have Tolle & Early, but we could have gotten what we needed by trading an OF'er and one of them. I agree, we could have been better or even much better, but I still think we did end up getting moderately better from a team that made the playoffs and was a head of the Yanks in Sept 2025.

I do not think the Yanks got better, and I know they got older.

I do not think the Jays got better, and I think they likely got worse.

I think the O's got way better, but they started out so far behind, I doubt they did by enough.

You disagree. 

Getting Suarez was a great add. I may think Gray is better than many here, but I love that trade. I like the Contreras trade more than had we signed Breggie or Bichette (and yes the budget counts.) I liked the Durbin trade, but would have preferred paying more for KMarte or Neto. I like the Kiner-Falefa signing, because we have China dolls all over our infield.

We got moderately better- not slightly better. While I agree we could have done more, in light of our competition not doing more, I think we will gain on NYY & TOR and stay ahead of BAL. I'm not sure we finish 1st or 2nd, but I like our chance more now than before the winter started.

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only IF signing was IKF. He's fine as a backup. I don't see how anyone could possibly care about him when Story and Mayer will be starting and have a history of missing significant time. 

Alonso and Schwarber are both DH's TBH. The Sox could have put them at 1b, but it would have been dumb. Sox would have still needed to figure out 1B until Casas was ready and we really don't know if that will be the case. 

At this point, we know the ultimate ceiling of this club may always be dictated by however much JH wants to spend. He should spend more. Most of us agree with that. It's just not the reality we live in. 

They also signed Durbin and Gasper, both IF-and Contreras. Durbin, Gasper, and IKF aren’t what the team needed. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

They also signed Durbin and Gasper, both IF-and Contreras. Durbin, Gasper, and IKF aren’t what the team needed. 

Please refrain from nonsensical arguments like they signed Gasper instead of Alonso/Schwarber.  It was most definitely not an “either/or” scenario and you know that…

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I did think and still do, that we coulda-shoulda added just 3 key pieces:

Big bat (1B/3B/2B)

SP#2

Nice bat (2B/3B/1B)

We got the SP2 (Suarez) and the nice bat (1B) Contreras.

We both agree we missed out on the BIG Bat (2B/3B) and you were fine with DH, instead. (I'd have been fine with Schwarber or Alonso at DH or Alonso at 1B over Contreras plus a "nice bat" at 2B/3B. I was crying for K Marte half the winter. I even was okay with E Suarez, but I cooled on that idea as the winter progressed. That's how much I wanted a second bat.

I agree that we made a mistake, and even had a chance to fix it by trading an OF'er for a big bat 3B/2Bman up to maybe even now. We could have chose to not get Gray and used the trade pieces and money for a bigger bat than Durbin, too.

I'm not saying nor never have said Brez had a perfect winter. We missed on one of our top 3 needs. We added 6 significant pieces when we needed 3 major pieces. I've been talking quality over quantity all winter. I think we could have done better, too and way better.

That does not mean I stick my head in the sand and poison my view on what we did do to improve the team, either. (I'm not saying you did, since you are always hypercritical, if we don't do what you specifically wanted to do.)

We added a very nice #2 SP'er. (I'd call Suarez a clear #1, as I think he is a top 30 SP'er- maybe even top 20.) We then added a solid #3 that might be more like a #2, depending on what you look at- Sonny Gray. He should help the team, immensely. I don't ignore this because I'm pouting over not signing Alonso. (I did not want Breggie and even near what we offered.) We added Oviedo, who may or may not end up better than Fitts/Dobbins/Harrison/Drohan. We added Contreras, who I think will hit as well as Bregman in 2026. He filled one of the 3 needs.

It basically comes down to we added Gray, Durbin, I K-F & Oviedo, instead of Alonso or Schwarber. I do not see that as a major loss, despite leaving the team unbalanced, due to a weaker than need be offense. I also cringe at having 4 OF'ers and 3 DHs (Masa, Casas, Campbell.) Our plan is to DH and OF'er. WTF!!!! I'm not happy about that at all.

I'm glad we still have Tolle & Early, but we could have gotten what we needed by trading an OF'er and one of them. I agree, we could have been better or even much better, but I still think we did end up getting moderately better from a team that made the playoffs and was a head of the Yanks in Sept 2025.

I do not think the Yanks got better, and I know they got older.

I do not think the Jays got better, and I think they likely got worse.

I think the O's got way better, but they started out so far behind, I doubt they did by enough.

You disagree. 

Getting Suarez was a great add. I may think Gray is better than many here, but I love that trade. I like the Contreras trade more than had we signed Breggie or Bichette (and yes the budget counts.) I liked the Durbin trade, but would have preferred paying more for KMarte or Neto. I like the Kiner-Falefa signing, because we have China dolls all over our infield.

We got moderately better- not slightly better. While I agree we could have done more, in light of our competition not doing more, I think we will gain on NYY & TOR and stay ahead of BAL. I'm not sure we finish 1st or 2nd, but I like our chance more now than before the winter started.

I think we might be slightly better, not moderately better. Maybe a game or two better. The Yankees got better because Cole is back. The Jays made a couple of major signings and the O’s are much better, likely better than the FLOPS.

But hey! We are probably better than the low budget Rays! That’s something, right?

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Please refrain from nonsensical arguments like they signed Gasper instead of Alonso/Schwarber.  It was most definitely not an “either/or” scenario and you know that…

That’s exactly what happened. They did sign Gasper but not Schwarber or Alonso. They could have signed two of them. They didn’t. What I wrote is factually correct.

[notin]

36 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Thats what I wrote above: EITHER Schwarber OR Alonso PLUS Suarez and Gray. Get rid of the useless Masa and try to trade Duran and Casas. Having Anthony and one of Schwarber or Alonso would stack our lineup. Of course this didn't happen, and everyone here knows why.

The issue is you’re believing all the negative hype about the offense and thinking it will be among the worst in MLB.  Barring injuries, it won’t. And the reality of needing superstar talent to carry an offense is not true.  The Brewers scored the third most runs in MLB last year, and they did it without a single starter posting an .800 OPS.

And they did it teams that had Alonso and Schwarber in their star-laden lineups actually scored fewer runs than the Brewers and the Red Sox…

 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

That’s exactly what happened. They did sign Gasper but not Schwarber or Alonso. They could have signed two of them. They didn’t. What I wrote is factually correct.

And moot.

They didn’t sign Gasper and then decide they didn’t need Alonso or Schwarber…

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only IF signing was IKF. He's fine as a backup. I don't see how anyone could possibly care about him when Story and Mayer will be starting and have a history of missing significant time. 

Alonso and Schwarber are both DH's TBH. The Sox could have put them at 1b, but it would have been dumb. Sox would have still needed to figure out 1B until Casas was ready and we really don't know if that will be the case. 

At this point, we know the ultimate ceiling of this club may always be dictated by however much JH wants to spend. He should spend more. Most of us agree with that. It's just not the reality we live in. 

We did need a mega bat, but the idea of adding another DH just seems wrong, to me.

To me, Casas is a DH only kinda player and may be our best hitter, if healthy. DH'ing might help him stay healthier, too, despite the fact that all his injuries occurred while not fielding.

We also have Masa, but even if we just trade/DFA him, we still have 3 DHs: Casas, an OF'er (Duran) and Campbell who would be best as our DH in 2026.

Fred is right about better moves not more. We could have traded Duran or even Abreu, and fixed that logjam while filling a greater need, like a big bat infielder (KMarte, Neto or even Paredes.) That alone was a significant blunder, and not learning the lesson from not dealing one last winter makes it doubly stinging.

We could have done every move we made, except just change or add one more.

1. Keep the Durbin trade but trade Mayer and Tolle for KMarte. (We'd still have 4 OF'ers, though)

2. Trade Abreu for Paredes plus King or Janek or even Sousa. (You could do this w #1 but without the Durin trade)

3. Sign Alonso and don't do the Contreras trade. (You could do this with #2) Maybe don't do the Gray trade, so you can afford Alonso. You'd have a little extra money for something else to be added.

4. Trade for Neto. The unknown return package makes this one quationable.

As much as I really like Schwarber, I don't think signing a DH was a good idea, and I can see Alonso as a DH, too, so I'm not sure about #3, either.

Maybe KMarte or Neto should have been done. Had we added one of them plus Paredes, while trading an OF'er and all the pieces used to get Gray & Oviedo, we'd be a better team. (Assuming we still sign Suarez.) Maybe even doing this w/o Contreras would make for a better winter.

 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

They also signed Durbin and Gasper, both IF-and Contreras. Durbin, Gasper, and IKF aren’t what the team needed. 

Why even mention Gasper?

I'd have much preferred KMarte, Neto or Paredes to Durbin & I K-F, yes.

I like the Contreras deal, a lot.