Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros Engaging in Trade Talks

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Gosh! You're right! I guess that means he is less likely to get injured than Bello THIS year, despite the 10 year age difference.

The average age of MLB pitchers is 29. I looked at TJS in 2025 and only 24% were for guys 30+ last year. Maybe older guys are more durable? 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Fair.

But the Sox do need an infielder, have an abundance of SP, and have to trade someone good to get someone good…

How about Bello? 

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The average age of MLB pitchers is 29. I looked at TJS in 2025 and only 24% were for guys 30+ last year. Maybe older guys are more durable? 

Ummmm…TJS isn’t the only malady a pitcher can suffer. While younger pitchers may be a bit more susceptible to structural damage because of the emphasis on velocity older pitchers are more susceptible to fatigue and inflammation injuries.
“The rapid decline for pitchers and hitters begins at age 30. Fangraphs breaks aging down in more detail. The decline for both pitchers and hitters accelerates at age 30.Feb 24, 2024”
“

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The average age of MLB pitchers is 29. I looked at TJS in 2025 and only 24% were for guys 30+ last year. Maybe older guys are more durable? 

Nah; by 30 most of them have already had their Tommy Johns

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How about Bello? 

I dunno.  I hear he’s immune to injury for the next 10 years…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nah; by 30 most of them have already had their Tommy Johns

"They've had one yes. What about second Tommy John?"

"I don't think he knows about second Tommy John, Pip."

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I dunno.  I hear he’s immune to injury for the next 10 years…

Glad they got an extension on him then. Nice they gave him a vacation in '24 and eased him into the year.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Ummmm…TJS isn’t the only malady a pitcher can suffer. While younger pitchers may be a bit more susceptible to structural damage because of the emphasis on velocity older pitchers are more susceptible to fatigue and inflammation injuries.
“The rapid decline for pitchers and hitters begins at age 30. Fangraphs breaks aging down in more detail. The decline for both pitchers and hitters accelerates at age 30.Feb 24, 2024”
“

Jarren, Romy, Wong, Eaton and Kutter turn 30 this year. 💀

Pack it up everyone, season is ovah. Funeral starts early. 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Jarren, Romy, Wong, Eaton and Kutter turn 30 this year. 💀

Pack it up everyone, season is ovah. Funeral starts early. 

So sad.  It seems like just last year they were all just 29…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I don’t think shattered confidence is an issue for most players.  You get this close to MLB without having an overabundance of confidence and still have enough leftover to sell on eBay at a tidy profit…

What about shattered dreams?

(thats when wwe wrestler goldust blatantly kicks you in the nuts and gets an intentional dq)

On a serious note - i agree with mvp. I think water finds its level.  IF getting called up a little early ruins you, you were alwasy soft and was never going to be much

"the manager ruined him" is fan speak for "I will not accept that my mancrush is a bust"

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I put Bello behind not only Gray but also Early. 
 

In 166 IP last year, Bello posted a paltry 1.9 fWAR.  In 14 IP, Early was worth 1.1…

Do you think Early is as good as he showed? Im still a Tolle over Early guy personally, but Im open to the possibility that they will both be awesome.

Tolle just has some things you cant teach (like size)

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello will be 27 this year and we thought we'd see improvement from him by now. Unfortunately, most of us see him not as a top of the rotation guy, but falling towards a #4. He fell apart in September (5.40 ERA, 1 W, 3 L), still walks too many guys (16th percentile k, 41st percentile bb) and is still hovering around 165 IP. If he just stopped nibbling and was better at just pitching to contact, maybe he'd be more useful. He throws too many waste pitches that nobody chases (37th percentile). 

He came in with a lot of hype. Sox made him the Opening Day Starter one year. People just need to reset their expectations for him IMO.

He might be better if he started every inning with a runner on base.  He seems to settle down and execute his sinker whenever he gets into trouble. But play with fire like that enough and youll get burned and he did end of last year/playoffs.

I dont know why a sinkerballer doesnt pound low and away like prime D.Lowe 

He tries to come upstairs from time to time with a cement mixer slow cutter or a straight as an arrow 4 seem and he gets in trouble.

Just stay downstairs and mix up your sinker, sweeper, slider, and change.

[moonslav59]

2025 OPS by age:

25 .709 (18453 PAs)

26 .695 (18586 PAs)

27 ,730 (20314 PAs)

28 .711 (18267 PAs)

29 .686 (10480 PAs- big drop in PAs)

30 .730 (18464)

31 .756 (10401)

32 .742 (11649)

33 .768 (7367 is a big drop in PAs)

34 .704 (6233)

35 .756 (4140- only the good survive?)

36 .665 (1199- hardly any survived)

37 .683 (2361)

2016-2025 season totals range

20-23: .700-.748

24-27: .701-.738

28-31: .710-.744

32-25: .701-.742

[moonslav59]

We may be reading too much into Bello's finish to 2025. He clearly had his best season.

Note: FIP at the end of each month:

6.41 April

5.11 May

4.47 June

4.38 July

4.10 August (It was 4.33 mid AUG and 4.22 on 8/26)

4.19 September

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

So sad.  It seems like just last year they were all just 29…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We may be reading too much into Bello's finish to 2025. He clearly had his best season.

Higher bWAR in '23. Higher fWAR in '24. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Higher bWAR in '23. Higher fWAR in '24. 

Okay, maybe not that "clear," but...

Best seasons:

ERA+ 2025 (123 to 2023 107)

FIP 2025 (ties with 2024 at 4.19)

WHIP 2025 (1.24 beats 2024 1.36)

My opinion remains that 2025 was Bello's best season.

 

[FredLynn]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

2025 OPS by age:

25 .709 (18453 PAs)

26 .695 (18586 PAs)

27 ,730 (20314 PAs)

28 .711 (18267 PAs)

29 .686 (10480 PAs- big drop in PAs)

30 .730 (18464)

31 .756 (10401)

32 .742 (11649)

33 .768 (7367 is a big drop in PAs)

34 .704 (6233)

35 .756 (4140- only the good survive?)

36 .665 (1199- hardly any survived)

37 .683 (2361)

2016-2025 season totals range

20-23: .700-.748

24-27: .701-.738

28-31: .710-.744

32-25: .701-.742

I’d interpret that as 25-29 year olds probably find themselves out of baseball or sitting on the bench (and so don’t qualify) if they suck. 
But my point was solely about pitchers, Gray v Bello. While a few pitchers age 36 are still effective and stay away from the IL the odds are with equally talented younger pitchers. I am predicting right now that Bello overall has a better year than Gray. Better year includes both performance and availability. And everyone knows my predictions are nearly ALWAYS accurate.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

But my point was solely about pitchers, Gray v Bello. ...

But you wrote this...

The rapid decline for pitchers and hitters begins at age 30

[moonslav59]

MLB Pitchers by age group from 2021-2025:

FIP

4.12 28-29

4.12 30-31

4.19 32-23

4.05 34-35

4.20 36-37

ERA-

99 28-29

98 30-31

96 32-33

99 34-35

98 36-37

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB Pitchers by age group from 2021-2025:

FIP

4.05 34-35

4.20 36-37

ERA-

99 34-35

98 36-37

Damn Sonny is gonna regress this year! 

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

Bello had a terrible April and May as he missed training camp due to a shoulder injury and inflammation.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

But you wrote this...

The rapid decline for pitchers and hitters begins at age 30

Gray is 36. Any time now for him. 
Bello is 26. Still has a few years.

Obviously not every pitcher follows that pattern but it IS a pattern. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Gray is 36. Any time now for him. 
Bello is 26. Still has a few years.

Obviously not every pitcher follows that pattern but it IS a pattern. 

I do expect Gray to decline due to age, but I'm not so sure, because he should have decline 3-5 years ago, and he's had some of his best seasons at 31 and after:

BWAR bests:

6.2 29 yrs old

5.6 33 yrs old 2023

5.4 at 25 2015

3.3 at 24 2014

3.1 at 31 2021

2.4 at 32 2022

1.8 at 34 2024

1.5 at 27 2017

1.4 at 35 2025

His worst 3 seasons were at 26, 28 & 30, which is normally considered prime.

Note: His 1.4 season in 2025 ties his rookie season in 2013 for 4th/5th worst in 13 seasons. (Kinda middle third)

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do expect Gray to decline due to age, but I'm not so sure, because he should have decline 3-5 years ago, and he's had some of his best seasons at 31 and after:

BWAR bests:

6.2 29 yrs old

5.6 33 yrs old 2023

5.4 at 25 2015

3.3 at 24 2014

3.1 at 31 2021

2.4 at 32 2022

1.8 at 34 2024

1.5 at 27 2017

1.4 at 35 2025

His worst 3 seasons were at 26, 28 & 30, which is normally considered prime.

Note: His 1.4 season in 2025 ties his rookie season in 2013 for 4th/5th worst in 13 seasons. (Kinda middle third)

Overall pitchers do decline after age 30 as a group. Gray is more likely to decline than Bello who, I believe, still has his best years in front of him.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Gray is 36. Any time now for him. 
Bello is 26. Still has a few years.

Obviously not every pitcher follows that pattern but it IS a pattern. 

Peak prime:

27 Crochet & Bello

28 Slaten, Kelly & Oviedo

29 Watson, Moran & Hicks

30 Whitlock & Weissert

Pre-prime:

24 Early & Harrison

23 Tolle

Post prime:

36 Gray (aging pretty well, so far)

38 Chapman (aging very well, so far)

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Peak prime:

27 Crochet & Bello

28 Slaten, Kelly & Oviedo

29 Watson, Moran & Hicks

30 Whitlock & Weissert

Pre-prime:

24 Early & Harrison

23 Tolle

Post prime:

36 Gray (aging pretty well, so far)

38 Chapman (aging very well, so far)

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/09/the-makeup-of-a-pitcher-debuting-in-the-major-leagues/

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/09/the-makeup-of-a-pitcher-debuting-in-the-major-leagues/

Good stuff. Thanks.

[moonslav59]

Would anyone trade 7-9 years of K Campbell ($7.5M AAV) for 2 years of Paredes ($9.2M in '26 and 1 more arb?)

Would HOU say yes

[mvp 78]

On 1/24/2026 at 12:55 PM, moonslav59 said:

Would anyone trade 7-9 years of K Campbell ($7.5M AAV) for 2 years of Paredes ($9.2M in '26 and 1 more arb?)

Would HOU say yes

Maybe. It depends on what KC looks like behind the scenes right now.