2026 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Don't have much to add at the moment, but figured it's time to start a new thread. 

I'm glad that Breslow has started to add to the catching position. The pitching side of the org will be fun to watch early on this year. Arias didn't hit much in AA, but we will learn a lot about his future in '26. My early pick is Godbout for org POTY. 

[moonslav59]

The 2025 season saw 4 major prospects graduate:

Roman Anthony

Marcelo Mayer

Kristian Campbell

Carlos Narvaez

The year before we saw Rafaela, Abreu, DHam & Slaten graduate.

This year it looks like Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Ryan Watson and maybe David Sandlin, Tyler Uberstine or Shane Drohan do so. This would mark the serious shift our farm has gone from everyday players graduation 7 of the last 8 to maybe seeing 3-5 pitchers as the only grads, this year.

According to soxprospects.com, 8 of our top 11 prospects are pitchers.

12 of the top 17, too.

Not bad, when you consider our MLB staff has these aged pitchers:

23 Harrison

26 Crochet & Bello

27 Slaten

28 Moran

29 Whitlock

30 Weissert & Kelly

[moonslav59]

Our top everyday prospects seem to fit well with openings that may arise in the near future:

SS #2 Arias (Story to 2B?)

OF #7 Gonzales (Should be ready when Duran's control ends)

SS #8 Soto (Is far away from the bigs, so maybe when DHam/Sogard are gone.)

2B #12 Godbout (Wish he was ready, now.)

UT #13 Romero (May get a look, this season)

The lack of top everyday prospects is not so bad, since most of our positional players are under team control for 3 or more years.

2 yrs:  Contreras, Yoshida

3 yrs:  Duran, Story, Casas & Romy

[moonslav59]

Is this the year, Romero makes a move?

https://news.soxprospects.com/2026/01/following-2025-success-mikey-romero.html

[moonslav59]

The AAA roster may look like this:

C: Delay- Rosario/Lira

1B: Casas (Hickey)

2B: T Gray

3B: Romero

SS: Sogard

LF: Campbell

CF: Ward

RF: Eaton

DH: Hickey (Capra)

SP: Harrison, Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin

RP: Kelly, Mullins, Harris, Song, Samaniego, Gamboa

The SP'ers in A+/AA impress the hell out of me:

Valera, Witherspoon, Bennett, Holobetz, Phillips, Eyanson, Rogers, Wehunt, Rivera, Dean, Tygart, Neely, Ingrassia, Futrell

[mvp 78]

On 1/3/2026 at 2:16 AM, moonslav59 said:

Our top everyday prospects seem to fit well with openings that may arise in the near future:

SS #2 Arias (Story to 2B?)

OF #7 Gonzales (Should be ready when Duran's control ends)

SS #8 Soto (Is far away from the bigs, so maybe when DHam/Sogard are gone.)

2B #12 Godbout (Wish he was ready, now.)

UT #13 Romero (May get a look, this season)

The lack of top everyday prospects is not so bad, since most of our positional players are under team control for 3 or more years.

2 yrs:  Contreras, Yoshida

3 yrs:  Duran, Story, Casas & Romy

Arias probably has at least two years to go. At that point, I'm not sure if the Sox pick up the option for 2028 Story. They may not overlap very long on the MLB roster TBH. Most likely it would be Mayer/Arias in the middle if Breslow had his way.

Gonzales spending the next three years (Duran's control) in the minors seems fine to me, but is still a long ways away and has a good shot of not making it. He hasn't yet developed the in game power that scouts have projected. 

If we're still playing fantasy farm, Soto moves to 3b as his arm can play over there and his body fills out. He adds the projected power and takes over for Bregman.

Godbout is going to hit the crap out of the ball. He'll be nice injury insurance for Mayer and is either a good bench guy to have or Craig deals him if he's really hitting well at AAA. 

Romero is traded this year.

What about Allen Castro? j/k

Hector Ramos is a better fit as the UTIL replacement for the guys mentioned above. 

A guy who could reach the bigs near Justin Gonzales, but has a wide variance is Harold Rivas. If his hit tool works out and he hits stateside, he should climb the ladder pretty quick. Big exit velos and great defense will get him to stick around for a while. 

The only other offensive guys I'd mention would be Luke Heyman and Adonys Guzman. We haven't seen these two catchers yet, but the Sox sorely needs these two and they could move up really quick. 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Could Rivera possibly make a jump to the bigs by AUG-SEP?

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Arias probably has at least two years to go. At that point, I'm not sure if the Sox pick up the option for 2028 Story. They may not overlap very long on the MLB roster TBH. Most likely it would be Mayer/Arias in the middle if Breslow had his way.

Gonzales spending the next three years (Duran's control) in the minors seems fine to me, but is still a long ways away and has a good shot of not making it. He hasn't yet developed the in game power that scouts have projected. 

If we're still playing fantasy farm, Soto moves to 3b as his arm can play over there and his body fills out. He adds the projected power and takes over for Bregman.

Godbout is going to hit the crap out of the ball. He'll be nice injury insurance for Mayer and is either a good bench guy to have or Craig deals him if he's really hitting well at AAA. 

Romero is traded this year.

What about Allen Castro? j/k

Hector Ramos is a better fit as the UTIL replacement for the guys mentioned above. 

A guy who could reach the bigs near Justin Gonzales, but has a wide variance is Harold Rivas. If his hit tool works out and he hits stateside, he should climb the ladder pretty quick. Big exit velos and great defense will get him to stick around for a while. 

The only other offensive guys I'd mention would be Luke Heyman and Adonys Guzman. We haven't seen these two catchers yet, but the Sox sorely needs these two and they could move up really quick. 

Our farm is not very deep with ML ready everyday players, so maybe Romero sticks around another season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Where does Matt Fraizer fit in?

We know Worcester inflates Triple A stats, but he hit .305 and .813 last year -- not at Woo. 

Even if, that's better than most batting prospects...

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Could Rivera possibly make a jump to the bigs by AUG-SEP?

Maybe? 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Where does Matt Fraizer fit in?

We know Worcester inflates Triple A stats, but he hit .305 and .813 last year -- not at Woo. 

Even if, that's better than most batting prospects...

Never OPS'd above 800 at AAA before. He's just an org guy TBH. Bench bat for WOO if Eaton is there. 

[Hugh2]

Frazier is going to 28 in just a few days, he's a depth option. 

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Never OPS'd above 800 at AAA before. He's just an org guy TBH. Bench bat for WOO. 

sp.com has him on the bench in AAA.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Never OPS'd above 800 at AAA before. He's just an org guy TBH. Bench bat for WOO if Eaton is there. 

Maybe he finally figured things out. That must be why Pittsburgh let him go...

Age old question: is he good or just doing good (as in do-gooder)?

Stats are facts but there are many that go into evaluations these days -- thus, the early promotions in the minors for Roman Anthony and now Enddy Azocar.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

sp.com has him on the bench in AAA.

That's because they have Eaton starting. If Eaton is in BOS, he's starting. 

[Larry Cook]

On 1/3/2026 at 11:39 PM, moonslav59 said:

 

SP: Harrison, Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin, Mullins

This is an incredible triple a staff right here! Best I can remember for Boston in a long time!!  I applaud bres-slow on this 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

This is an incredible triple a staff right here! Best I can remember for Boston in a long time!!  I applaud bres-slow on this 

I'm pretty pumped up about our AA and A+ rotations, as well:

AA: Bennet, Holobetz, Rivera, Wehunt, Rogers/Dean

A+: Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Tygart/Neely (Ingrassia/Ehrlicher/Futrell)

[moonslav59]

Brez has had a busy winter with trades- mostly prospects, although not many higher level ones. He's also added a few...

Gone:

4. Perales (Bennett)

8. Clarke (S Gray)

10. Fajardo (Contreras)

25ish? T Gray (Guerrero) >later> traded for Nate Baez

33. Aita (Contreras)

Added:

6. Jake Bennett (Perales)

21. Ryan Watson (Reimer/Rule 5)

29. Samaniego (w Oviedo & A Guzman for JhGracia & Travieso)

31. Adonys Guzman (w Oviedo & Samaniego for JhGracia & Travieso)

32. Luke Heyman (Hoppe)

50. Isaiah Jackson (Grissom)

N/R Ronny Hernandez (Murphy)

N/R Braiden Ward (Bernardino)

N/R Nate Baez (T Gray)

 

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com slotted OF'er Garielvin Silverio IFA signee at #34.

Is he our new "PASSWORD?"

Or, could it be #35:

Dawvris Brito SS

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com has released its new top prospects rankings.

The Sox are tied for 9th in team rankings with no ALE teams ahead of them.

Sox top prospects:

19. Tolle

31. Arias

56. Early

84. Witherspoon

Pretty damn good, considering we graduated 4 players in 2025:

Anthony, Mayer, Campbell & Narvaez

[mvp 78]

Arias is too high. I'd trade him for someone else's Early today. 

[mvp 78]

 

[sk7326]

The Athletic Top 100 Overall

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6985939/2026/01/26/top-mlb-prospects-2026-keith-law-konnor-griffin/?source=emp_shared_article

 

12. Franklin Arias

Quote

Arias is an extremely advanced hitter already, playing all of 2025 at age 19, so much so that the Red Sox challenged him by moving him up from Low A after just 19 games there in April (and only 54 games there in total). He responded with one of the highest contact rates of any hitter in High A, regardless of age, striking out just 8.9 percent of the time, second among qualifiers behind a 24-year-old org player, while flashing some of his power potential and playing strong defense at short. He rarely swings and misses, with an overall whiff rate of just 12 percent on the year, and just 4 percent on pitches in the zone. He might benefit by swinging a little bit less often — at least until he gets stronger and can do more with the contact he is making, as right now he’s getting the bat to the ball but doesn’t square it up consistently enough, with a weird spike in his pop-up rate in High A last year. He’s barely begun to fill out physically, with room to add probably a full grade of power as he matures, but he’s such a smart hitter that he’s moved up the chain faster than most prospects his age. He’s a natural shortstop with excellent instincts and is at least a 55 defender there already, probably plus or better in the end. He’s less of a finished product than the other players around him in this range of the list, but if he were a college sophomore right now, we’d be talking about him as a potential 1-1 pick in 2027.

40. Payton Tolle

Quote

I’ll take the L on this one, as Tolle has one to spare in his surname anyway. Tolle was Boston’s 2024 second-round pick and seemed like a safe starter without much ceiling, as he lived and died by the fastball, which was up to 96 mph at TCU, and didn’t have a plus secondary pitch. The Red Sox have started to do some great work on the pitching side — half of New England just spit out their chowder reading that — with Tolle probably the best example to date. He averaged 95.5 on the four-seamer in the minors and 96.7 in the majors, still throwing the pitch 64 percent of the time, with everything he throws playing up because he gets 7 1/2 feet of extension out front, tying with Joey Cantillo for the most among left-handed starters in the majors last year. He still doesn’t spin the ball particularly well, so the Red Sox added a cutter to his repertoire and it’s probably his best off-speed pitch now; his "slider" is almost identical to the cutter, but he raises his hand slightly to get more sweep and tilt to the pitch. His changeup has a little tail and fade when it’s in the upper 80s, but it straightens out at 90-plus and isn’t likely to be as effective. Tolle was also a full-time DH in 2023 at Wichita State, and still took 55 at bats in his draft year, so some of his progress probably came from focusing just on pitching, while the Red Sox clearly helped him boost his velocity, expand his arsenal and improve the consistency of his delivery. He’s at least a No. 3 starter now given how well the fastball plays, and improving that changeup might be enough to get him to a No. 2.

62. Kyson Witherspoon

Quote

Boston’s first-round pick in 2025, Witherspoon was outstanding for Oklahoma in the spring, improving his control substantially even as he started throwing harder. He topped out at 99 and would sit 95-97, maintaining that level deep into starts, while working with five pitches that included a changeup that I think will turn out to be an above-average to plus pitch for him if he uses it more. Some teams were concerned about his short arm action and a very sudden move back right after hand separation, but it hasn’t caused any issues with command so far, and he’s so athletic I think he can continue to pitch this way without issues throwing strikes. He spins the ball well enough to have a plus breaking pitch somewhere, needing to finish them more out over his front side and possibly choosing one of the slider and cutter to be his primary breaking pitch. He’s further away than some of the other college pitchers in the 2025 draft but has No. 2 starter upside, giving Boston’s strong pitching development group a lot to work with already.

64. Connelly Early

Quote

Last offseason, I ranked Early only 16th in the Red Sox’s system even off a great first season in the minors, as his fastball sat only around 91-92 and he lived off his off-speed stuff, none of which was really plus. It was more about deception than pitch quality, as he’s a little across his body with plus-plus extension and also throws so many pitches all the time that hitters had a hard time figuring out what was coming. He’s a very different guy a year later, having gained over 2 mph on his fastball heading into 2025, so that he averaged 93.7 mph in the majors on all of his fastballs combined, and now his changeup is a plus pitch as well. He pitched more off the fastball last year, getting more whiffs and chases on it than the year prior. His sweeper, another result of Boston’s pitching development, might end up his best breaking pitch, as he doesn’t spin the ball that well and neither his slider nor curve is better than a fringe-average pitch. He didn’t walk anyone in his big-league debut, but that was by far his lowest walk rate to date and he wasn’t actually in the zone as much as it implies. If he gets down to a 6-7 percent walk rate from his 9.7 percent rate in the minors last year, which he did in his draft year at UVA and should be able to do with his delivery, he’s a very solid mid-rotation starter.

 

[moonslav59]

I'd go...

1. Tolle

2. Early

Big gap

3. Arias

4. Witherspoon

5. Valera

[harmony]

The Red Sox place five prospects on ESPN's Top 100 list released Tuesday:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47684202/top-100-mlb-prospects-2026-kiley-mcdaniel-konnor-griffin-kevin-mcgonigle-jesus-made

[sk7326]

We'll see what happens.  If Arias starts the season at Portland as a 20-year old, it definitely gives more heft to the lofty ranking.

[moonslav59]

They snuck Valera into the top 100. Nice!
 

They have Tolle ahead of Arias, which looks correct. (I'd have Early ahead, too.)

[mvp 78]

 

[sk7326]

Red Sox 10th in the Athletic's Team Ranks

From Law:

Quote

For several years, I had the Red Sox rated a little lower than perhaps their fans wanted, because there was no pitching at all in the system. Now they’re a pitching development powerhouse, with two left-handed starters on the top 100 who made enormous strides in 2025, while they’ve graduated their big three hitting prospects, so their system is now extremely pitching-heavy. That’s not a bad thing, just an interesting 180 in such a short span.