What the AL East Division competition is doing

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd project 87 wins now, 93 if they make a significant addition in the infield. 

If they re-sign Breggie: 90 wins

If they do trades or other moves, it would change my projections plus or minus a few wins. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I predict other moves will be made…

Just depends on how significant they are. 

Signing Justin Wilson? Not sure I'm adjusting the win total, but it's probably a good move. 

[notin]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just depends on how significant they are. 

Signing Justin Wilson? Not sure I'm adjusting the win total, but it's probably a good move. 

Him or Coulombe or Chafin.

 

Im still assuming a 2b/3b is in their future.  It might not be Marte or Bichette or Bregman, but that doesn’t mean the Sox are settling for Jared Triolo either…

[notin]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they re-sign Breggie: 90 wins

If they do trades or other moves, it would change my projections plus or minus a few wins. 

So one more win despite the clear upgrade from Toro to Contreras?

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

So one more win despite the clear upgrade from Toro to Contreras?

They don't have Devers for half the season. Uncertainty for health of various players. Regression from Chapman.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They don't have Devers for half the season. Uncertainty for health of various players. Regression from Chapman.

I’m sure someone will step up and fill the whiny bitch void left by trading Devers.

Sure players like Chapman will take a step or two backwards.  But players like Abreu could easily take even more steps forward.  
 

But I withhold any real predictions until I see the actual product.  At least on paper…

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

After all winter deals are done, yes.

Since some posters think the RS are finished spending, I think that should be part of their prediction.  Since I think the RS have at least one more big move, I'm predicting 94 wins.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I predict other moves will be made…

I do, too. 

The thing is that other teams are not done adding either, especially the Yanks & Jays.

As of now, it does look like the over/under should be 84.5.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m sure someone will step up and fill the whiny bitch void left by trading Devers.

Sure players like Chapman will take a step or two backwards.  But players like Abreu could easily take even more steps forward.  
 

But I withhold any real predictions until I see the actual product.  At least on paper…

Most likely to complain Power Rankings:

Duran

Casas

S Gray

Bello

 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Since some posters think the RS are finished spending, I think that should be part of their prediction.  Since I think the RS have at least one more big move, I'm predicting 94 wins.

We have a surplus of OF'ers and can make a trade that even saves JH money, so we are not done, IMO.

I would not trade Duran for Paredes and Sousa, but I think HOU would, and we'd save money on the AAV/Tax line. Are we better? We found our 3Bman and maybe Paredes hits as well as the 2026 Duran, but our roster balance would be improved, and we'd have a decent LH'd RP'er, too.

Does that trade add wins?

[JoeBrady]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not trade Duran for Paredes and Sousa

It's light, but the fit is very attractive.  Maybe King instead of Sousa might be slightly more enticing.  Adding Abreu for one year is also interesting.  My main sticking point would be them getting three years of Duran while we'd only get two years of Paredes.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's light, but the fit is very attractive.  Maybe King instead of Sousa might be slightly more enticing.  Adding Abreu for one year is also interesting.  My main sticking point would be them getting three years of Duran while we'd only get two years of Paredes.

Paredes is a greater need for the Sox and his bat would play well at Fenway. Duran is a good player, but I'd be fine with a one for one deal there. 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's light, but the fit is very attractive.  Maybe King instead of Sousa might be slightly more enticing.  Adding Abreu for one year is also interesting.  My main sticking point would be them getting three years of Duran while we'd only get two years of Paredes.

I thought about King over Sousa. He's younger and has a similar K:BB rate.

Abreu has one year at about $5M arb.

I doubt HOU gives us both King and Sousa with Paredes, but BTV still rates it an almost 2:1 value give by the Sox.

How about this:

BOS: Paredes, Donovan & Sousa

HOU: Duran & Sandlin

STL: Matthews & Neyens

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Paredes is a greater need for the Sox and his bat would play well at Fenway. Duran is a good player, but I'd be fine with a one for one deal there. 

I really like Paredes and think his 11 value on BTV is way too low. Maybe Duran's 46 is too high, but I think Duran for Paredes, King AND Sousa is still an overpay by the Sox.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Paredes and think his 11 value on BTV is way too low. Maybe Duran's 46 is too high, but I think Duran for Paredes, King AND Sousa is still an overpay by the Sox.

Moving Duran for Paredes plus prospects is a win IMO. Instead of King, just load up on a few more prospects to help a farm system that is going the wrong direction.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Moving Duran for Paredes plus prospects is a win IMO. Instead of King, just load up on a few more prospects to help a farm system that is going the wrong direction.

Well, I think we really need a LH'd RP'er and HOU has two good ones.

I don't think now is the time to build up the farm, but I get your point. If Paredes ends up evening up Duran on O and fills our great need at 3B (and back-up 1B,) then maybe it's not a bad idea.

BTV values HOU prospects as such:

22 Neyens SS

11 K Alvarez OF (nope)

10 Matthews SS/2B (MLB, now)

9 Janek C & Mayer P

BTV accepts:

HOU: Duran 46

BOS: Paredes 12, Neyens 22 PLUS King7  or Sousa 5

or

BOS: Paredes 12, Matthews 10, King 7 & Sousa 5

or

BOS: Paredes 12, Neeyens 22 & Matthews 10 (not sure HOU does this.)

How about Duran 46 for Paredes 12, Matthews 10, Janek 9 & King 7?

I'd do Duran for Paredes, Neyens, Janek & Sousa.

[Behindenemylines]

On 12/31/2025 at 12:32 PM, moonslav59 said:

I do, too. 

The thing is that other teams are not done adding either, especially the Yanks & Jays.

As of now, it does look like the over/under should be 84.5.

Agree, Jay's are looking for one more big bat and the Yanks haven't done anything. Wondering if Hal is having money problems. The O's starting pitching has improved a lot. The bottom line is who every has the healthiest pitching will win the AL East.