Article: Hunter Greene, Rumored Red Sox Trade Target, Will Cost an Arm, A Leg, and More

[notin]

On 10/20/2025 at 3:13 PM, moonslav59 said:

Well, notin thinks Greene is not a top 10 SP'er, so that's not close to Skenes talk.

I'm sure they'll ask for Tolle or Early, but they may take all offense. You say Anthony, but maybe it could be Duran & Mayer with Garcia as a possible third.

That would create a Sox need for 3B and 2B.

Greene averages about 125 IP per season.  I can’t make him a top ten SP until he starts hitting a minimum of 150 IP per season regularly.  He has every ability except for two - availability and durability…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Greene averages about 125 IP per season.  I can’t make him a top ten SP until he starts hitting a minimum of 150 IP per season regularly.  He has every ability except for two - availability and durability…

I don't disagree, but being 72nd in IP is not all that bad.

150 seems about as arbitrary as any other number between 125 and 175.

Of course, he'd be much better with more IP.

They gave up a lot for Crochet and extended him to big money on less than averaging 125.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, but being 72nd in IP is not all that bad.

150 seems about as arbitrary as any other number between 125 and 175.

Of course, he'd be much better with more IP.

They gave up a lot for Crochet and extended him to big money on less than averaging 125.

Crochet averaged less because he spent most of his career as a reliever.  Greene has always been a starter. 91 games. 91 starts…

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Crochet averaged less because he spent most of his career as a reliever.  Greene has always been a starter. 91 games. 91 starts…

That works in Greene's favor.  BTW, he only had under 22 GS once in his 4 year career.

Crochet had an injury, too.

I still am not all hung up on him being 72nd in GS in the last 3 years. He's 55th in GS in the last 4 seasons, but of course many more durable pitchers weren't in the bigs in 2022.

I'm not disagreeing with your point. He needs to pitch more for me to think of him as top 10, as well, but when he pitches, and it's still quite a bit, he has some numbers that show he looks like he's top 10 or close to it.

We did not know Crochet would be top 10, either. We worried about him being able to go over 160 or 170 IP, and also injury and durability/stamina. I recognize he's a different case, but when you can see a pitcher has nasty stuff and a pretty nice size sample size, sometimes you roll the dice. Greene's sample size is just under 500 IP. Crochet's was 219. That does matter, too.

[Dirtywater433]

The Reds need a CF pretty badly. 

TJ Friedl was -10 DRS and 1 OAV. He makes the plays hit at him, but he has zero range for a CF. He's a LF.

So I got to say, if there's one team that can pull off a Hunter Greene trade, it'll be the Sox. Duran is similar to TJ Friedl in limited time in CF, but was a stalwart in 2024 in CF. So I guess it depends on their evaluation on Duran in CF.

I'd pull the trigger on Perales, Campbell, and Duran. Campbell probably end up in RF for them. Not ideal, but it's better than RF Fenway. 

I'm skeptical the Reds do it, but the outfield market is shot. The Reds need outfielders. They need a RF and a CF pretty desperately.

If they stuck a gun to my head and wanted Abreu over Duran, I'd still do it, but it would feel less great. The Sox need RF for Abreu, he's been a great fit there since they got him. This team was way worse in September when he went down. I don't think there's much coincidence to that.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Dirtywater433 said:

The Reds need a CF pretty badly. 

TJ Friedl was -10 DRS and 1 OAV. He makes the plays hit at him, but he has zero range for a CF. He's a LF.

So I got to say, if there's one team that can pull off a Hunter Greene trade, it'll be the Sox. Duran is similar to TJ Friedl in limited time in CF, but was a stalwart in 2024 in CF. So I guess it depends on their evaluation on Duran in CF.

I'd pull the trigger on Perales, Campbell, and Duran. Campbell probably end up in RF for them. Not ideal, but it's better than RF Fenway. 

I'm skeptical the Reds do it, but the outfield market is shot. The Reds need outfielders. They need a RF and a CF pretty desperately.

If they stuck a gun to my head and wanted Abreu over Duran, I'd still do it, but it would feel less great. The Sox need RF for Abreu, he's been a great fit there since they got him. This team was way worse in September when he went down. I don't think there's much coincidence to that.

We could also trade Rafaela, Campbell and maybe upgrade on Perales or add Clarke/Valera/Fajardo or Sandlin. I'm not sure CIN agrees. They'd want Tolle or Early id no Abreu or Duran.

Rafaela, Duran & Perales would do it.

Our OF would be...

LF: Anthony/Campbell

CF: Jh Garcia (Anthony)

RF: Abreu/Garcia

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We could also trade Rafaela, Campbell and maybe upgrade on Perales or add Clarke/Valera/Fajardo or Sandlin. I'm not sure CIN agrees. They'd want Tolle or Early id no Abreu or Duran.

Rafaela, Duran & Perales would do it.

Our OF would be...

LF: Anthony/Campbell

CF: Jh Garcia (Anthony)

RF: Abreu/Garcia

Ewww, no. 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ewww, no. 

We'd be pinning a lot of hopes on Campbell and/or Garcia to do very well.

Too great a risk- agreed.

I doubt CIN does the deal for Rafaela, Campbell, Perales & Clarke.

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That works in Greene's favor.  BTW, he only had under 22 GS once in his 4 year career.

Crochet had an injury, too.

I still am not all hung up on him being 72nd in GS in the last 3 years. He's 55th in GS in the last 4 seasons, but of course many more durable pitchers weren't in the bigs in 2022.

I'm not disagreeing with your point. He needs to pitch more for me to think of him as top 10, as well, but when he pitches, and it's still quite a bit, he has some numbers that show he looks like he's top 10 or close to it.

We did not know Crochet would be top 10, either. We worried about him being able to go over 160 or 170 IP, and also injury and durability/stamina. I recognize he's a different case, but when you can see a pitcher has nasty stuff and a pretty nice size sample size, sometimes you roll the dice. Greene's sample size is just under 500 IP. Crochet's was 219. That does matter, too.

Not sure why you keep bringing up Crochet.  His career doesn’t change that Hunter Greene has very obvious durability issues.  And citing “only started less than 22 games one time in 4 years” really isn’t the evidence against this that you appear to have presented it as.

Greene has talent.  No one questions that.  I would overpay for him.  But not to the level many seem to think it would require.  It’s all moot anyway because if the Reds are trading him, they know something.  They’re not moving their ace to get outfield offense.  The Sox need hitting, too, but you don’t hear rumors about trading Crochet.

Greene will be a Red next year.  I feel much more confident about that statement than I do about saying the same for Lodolo, and especially for Singer…

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We'd be pinning a lot of hopes on Campbell and/or Garcia to do very well.

Too great a risk- agreed.

I doubt CIN does the deal for Rafaela, Campbell, Perales & Clarke.

I doubt it, too.

They need outfielders that can hit. Neither Rafaela nor Campbell have shown that ability yet…

[notin]

Krusty postulated earlier that the Reds hold “all the cards.”

But they are team with the specific needs.  They need an outfielder that 1) can provide offense 2) remain affordable and 3) potentially play CF if they need to move Friedl to LF.  Duran is on a very short list here.  Especially since none of Roman Anthony, Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford figure to be available any time soon.

Not sure why the Sox are expected to overpay by so much.  Sure the Reds have the option of looking elsewhere, but is there a better fit for them that is available?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Krusty postulated earlier that the Reds hold “all the cards.”

But they are team with the specific needs.  They need an outfielder that 1) can provide offense 2) remain affordable and 3) potentially play CF if they need to move Friedl to LF.  Duran is on a very short list here.  Especially since none of Roman Anthony, Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford figure to be available any time soon.

Not sure why the Sox are expected to overpay by so much.  Sure the Reds have the option of looking elsewhere, but is there a better fit for them that is available?

I think they can work out a deal. Not sure it has to be a one for one or even include Duran TBH. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they can work out a deal. Not sure it has to be a one for one or even include Duran TBH. 

They *could* make a deal, or they can continue to have fun eating frog legs on their yachts and look at the roster and say, fixing this is not worth my sunday, Im going back to the caviar

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Krusty postulated earlier that the Reds hold “all the cards.”

But they are team with the specific needs.  They need an outfielder that 1) can provide offense 2) remain affordable and 3) potentially play CF if they need to move Friedl to LF.  Duran is on a very short list here.  Especially since none of Roman Anthony, Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford figure to be available any time soon.

Not sure why the Sox are expected to overpay by so much.  Sure the Reds have the option of looking elsewhere, but is there a better fit for them that is available?

We have "specific needs" too, so it's about even on who needs what the other team has more, IMO.

We need a #2 SP'er, and they have 3-4 of them. They need an OF'er or two and we have 5-6 of them.

I also don't see a GM thinking, "This team desperately needs __X___, so I'm going to force them to pay more than teams that don't need __X___ as much."

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they can work out a deal. Not sure it has to be a one for one or even include Duran TBH. 

I think it would have to include Duran or Abreu. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it would have to include Duran or Abreu. 

Agreed, and for Greene, I doubt Abreu moves thr needle nearly as much as Duran does.

Lodolo for Abreu doesn’t seem unrealistic, or at least seems more realistic that Duran for Greene…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have "specific needs" too, so it's about even on who needs what the other team has more, IMO.

We need a #2 SP'er, and they have 3-4 of them. They need an OF'er or two and we have 5-6 of them.

I also don't see a GM thinking, "This team desperately needs __X___, so I'm going to force them to pay more than teams that don't need __X___ as much."

Wasn’t that the logic behind Greene for Duran, Abreu, Perales, Tolle, and Romero or whatever it was that was proposed earlier?

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed, and for Greene, I doubt Abreu moves thr needle nearly as much as Duran does.

Lodolo for Abreu doesn’t seem unrealistic, or at least seems more realistic that Duran for Greene…

They might like the extra year of control, the much better defense and the added power.

I think Abreu could be done with the platoon label, but he's also gotta stay healthy.

For Greene, we'd need to add key pieces with either Duran or Abreu, and better ones, if it's Wilyer.

I'd be happy with Abreu for Lodolo, but I'd prefer to keep Wilyer for RF. With no trades made, I see Duran as our 2026 DH and an OF of Anthony in left, Rafaela in center and Abreu in right. Trade the DH not the RF'er.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it would have to include Duran or Abreu. 

Yeah, Lodolo for Abreu seems to make a little bit more sense for both teams TBH. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, Lodolo for Abreu seems to make a little bit more sense for both teams TBH. 

Would you do Duran, Campbell or Garcia plus Clarke for Greene?

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would you do Duran, Campbell or Garcia plus Clarke for Greene?

IDK. He's got quite the injury transaction listing. He was a 4 fWAR guy at 150 IP and that's where he peaked. That's Duran every year. Seems like a lot to give up for a guy who misses a ton of time. I'd rather find pitchers that have a better track record. 

That used car might look really good in the listing, but the oil stains on the driving should make you think twice. 

[Dirtywater433]

It seems like Duran and Campbell are the sweet spot to get Greene. TJ Friedl screams 4th outfielder. Duran and Campbell taking over CF and LF.

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm okay with 6-7 year deals on 28-29 year olds, 5-6 on 30-31 year olds.

I'm sympathetic to your views. I have suggested JH, Brez & Co. look into deal for guys like E Suarez and Merrill Kelly, who are likely too old to get 5+ years.

Not too long ago, I thought that any deal over 4 years was too long, especially for any player already in their 30s.  These days, contracts have become so outrageous that a 4-year contract is almost considered a short-term deal.  And there is seemingly no end in sight to the outrageousness.

A 30-year old player is already considered past his prime.  Not that he can't still have some very good years left, but you're paying for past performance.

Extending your young players before they reach free agency is now the way to go.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Extending your young players before they reach free agency is now the way to go.

We've done this, and may end up missing on one or two, but we aren't likely to win without some kind of major boost. 

4 years deals don't get those big boost guys, anymore

[Krusty]

Lodolo for Duran is a deal the Reds might do.  They would rather move Singer but he isn’t going to bring in the hitter they want.  Greene would require a multi player package and I’m not sure the Reds have the stomach to trade their ace and face the fan backlash.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Krusty said:

Lodolo for Duran is a deal the Reds might do.  They would rather move Singer but he isn’t going to bring in the hitter they want.  Greene would require a multi player package and I’m not sure the Reds have the stomach to trade their ace and face the fan backlash.

You call Krall.  I’ll call Breslow…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, notin said:

You call Krall.  I’ll call Breslow…

Just don't call him a stiff.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just don't call him a stiff.

Fine! You call Breslow…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Krusty said:

Lodolo for Duran is a deal the Reds might do.  They would rather move Singer but he isn’t going to bring in the hitter they want.  Greene would require a multi player package and I’m not sure the Reds have the stomach to trade their ace and face the fan backlash.

Lodolo for Duran even saves us $3.5M. That may not seem like much, but if the goal is to spend up to but below the tax line, $48M might get us two really good players while $44.5M may get just one plus a decent other one.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Lodolo for Duran even saves us $3.5M. 

Music to JH's ears. He needs that for his boat. 

https://www.superyachtfan.com/yacht/elysian/