A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But when people talk about how bad all the other FA are doing that we didnt get, and jumping for joy...

To me, the only hitters that looked interesting were Bregman and Hoskins as a bench bat (due to his pull air tendencies and small contract). Brez was willing to use a lot of prospect capital to acquire Contreras (great!), Gray (ok!) and others (um). If they really weren't all in on bringing back Bregman, pull the deal to get Marte. He can play 2b for a few years and then transition to 1b when Contreras leaves. If you don't like the Marte deal, go get Paredes and push the deal over the finish line (DD was always able to). 

[notin]

50 minutes ago, Old Red said:

To me the point that the Red Sox won more games after Devers left, and that the offense didn’t drop off much of anything, but that the Red Sox would have won more games, and they would have scored more runs if Devers would have stayed IMO, and not to mention once again that he could have made the difference in the postseason against the YANKEES.

But the point is that largely the same post-Devers lineup that was producing 4.84 RPG last year Is now only producing 3.71 RPG (not counting their 5 runs off Weston Wilson).  And while they’re without Bregman, they do have Willson Contreras putting up Bregman numbers from last year…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

But the point is that largely the same post-Devers lineup that was producing 4.84 RPG last year Is now only producing 3.71 RPG (not counting their 5 runs off Weston Wilson).  And while they’re without Bregman, they do have Willson Contreras putting up Bregman numbers from last year…

If this year's Sox 3b can just replicate the 96 wRC+ last year's Sox 1b, everything will be just fine then. 

Durbin is basically hitting like '25 Wong instead. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If this year's Sox 3b can just replicate the 96 wRC+ last year's Sox 1b, everything will be just fine then. 

Durbin is basically hitting like '25 Wong instead. 

Well, let’s not forget about Story and, until 4 days ago, Duran.

As little faith as I have in Durbin, I do think he can reach Abraham Toro production…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, let’s not forget about Story and, until 4 days ago, Duran.

As little faith as I have in Durbin, I do think he can reach Abraham Toro production…

Or go with my other alignment with Yoshida at DH, Anthony (when back) in LF, Duran in CF, and Rafaela, Mayer and Story at 2b, 3b and SS in some arrangement that doesn’t have Story at SS.  
 

Durbin can sit out for a bit.

 

Or call up Braiden “the Unlikely Savior”Ward..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

But the point is that largely the same post-Devers lineup that was producing 4.84 RPG last year Is now only producing 3.71 RPG (not counting their 5 runs off Weston Wilson).  And while they’re without Bregman, they do have Willson Contreras putting up Bregman numbers from last year…

Let's face it, the real problem isn't that Durbin wasn't anything like the front office or media projected -- "he pulls in the air; he's gonna hit 20+ homers at Fenway!"

As you point out, Durbin has a fatal case of sophomoreyetis (what we blamed as the reason we couldn't get any good girls freshman year... though we couldn't wait until we were sophomores).

But it still could've worked out if Anthony didn't catch it, too. He didn't have to be a superstar, but just repeat his half of a rookie year over a full season.

If you believe hitting is contagious and there are valid reasons it's a saying, then maybe a couple of the guys who delivered last night will stay hot, and Roman can relax, see some crushable pitches and heat up himself.

If he can stay on the field like an indestructible 21-year old male...

 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, let’s not forget about Story and, until 4 days ago, Duran.

As little faith as I have in Durbin, I do think he can reach Abraham Toro production…

Toro was really hot for a few weeks there...

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Or call up Braiden “the Unlikely Savior”Ward..

Can he play 2b? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If the return for Sale wasn't a dog turd, I think it'd be easier to understand that trade. Whatever internal scouting/metrics they had on Grissom was a big time failure. What's really cool is he's now OPS'ing over 800 for LAA. 🤪

Weird that they mentioned DHam doing better with MIL, and he is not, and should have mentioned Grissom, instead.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Weird that they mentioned DHam doing better with MIL, and he is not, and should have mentioned Grissom, instead.

Hamilton had a 746 OPS at the time he was playing vs BOS. On that same date, Grissom hadn't had a MLB PA in '26 yet. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hamilton had a 746 OPS at the time he was playing vs BOS. On that same date, Grissom hadn't had a MLB PA in '26 yet. 

Sounds like a valid reason.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, the only hitters that looked interesting were Bregman and Hoskins as a bench bat (due to his pull air tendencies and small contract). Brez was willing to use a lot of prospect capital to acquire Contreras (great!), Gray (ok!) and others (um). If they really weren't all in on bringing back Bregman, pull the deal to get Marte. He can play 2b for a few years and then transition to 1b when Contreras leaves. If you don't like the Marte deal, go get Paredes and push the deal over the finish line (DD was always able to). 

I was all about Marte or Paredes.  Not sure AZ was wild about my Duran/Bello offer.  Never even returned my calls…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Can he play 2b? 

Yes.  Can he play it well?  No idea…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Toro was really hot for a few weeks there...

… which was nice except he had the job for a few months…

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Just get 9 bats and figure out where they play later?  I’ve never seen that work. 

Durbin (admittedly my focus) isn’t the problem because they chose position over offense in the same way Schwarber would be the problem because they chose offense and ignored position.   The Sox did need an infielder.  There’s no getting around that.  
 

The problem is that Durbin was clearly not the infielder they needed, at least not yet.  Of course most of the hard-hitting free agents that were available, at least as free agents (Bregman, Bichette) are not off to much better starts.  And the rumored trade candidates only seemed to be available at the expense of the more notable names on the young pitching depth chart.

 

 

There is getting around that.  For example, if we had a great DH, then Durbin wouldnt be a huge problem because we could count on a steady stream of runs from the top of lineup and could focus on cheap defensive players to fill whatever is left over after we go get the studs.

And in 2026 where there is a lot of cross-training and people are changing position to accommodate all sorts of combos....I think us, and most teams, have the ability to fit in elite bats.  Its hard to build a team without defensive versatility in 2026. 

But we are left behind because we look at players through the lens of their position.  If you replace Durbin with Yordan Alvarez we are better.  And we have enough defensive versatility to make it work.

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

There is getting around that.  For example, if we had a great DH, then Durbin wouldnt be a huge problem because we could count on a steady stream of runs from the top of lineup and could focus on cheap defensive players to fill whatever is left over after we go get the studs.

And in 2026 where there is a lot of cross-training and people are changing position to accommodate all sorts of combos....I think us, and most teams, have the ability to fit in elite bats.  Its hard to build a team without defensive versatility in 2026. 

But we are left behind because we look at players through the lens of their position.  If you replace Durbin with Yordan Alvarez we are better.  And we have enough defensive versatility to make it work.

And if you replace Durbin with Manny Machado, we’re even better because Machado can make pays at third base the others cannot…

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, the only hitters that looked interesting were Bregman and Hoskins as a bench bat (due to his pull air tendencies and small contract). Brez was willing to use a lot of prospect capital to acquire Contreras (great!), Gray (ok!) and others (um). If they really weren't all in on bringing back Bregman, pull the deal to get Marte. He can play 2b for a few years and then transition to 1b when Contreras leaves. If you don't like the Marte deal, go get Paredes and push the deal over the finish line (DD was always able to). 

Plenty of good bats change hands every year, and btw (not directing this at you) the de-prioritization of getting (and keeping) stud hitters didnt start this offseason.  Its like every year we subtract a bat and then just cross our fingers that it will magically be replaced.  And I think you are seeing a team that shows the flaw of that logic. Logic being : "we never struggle to hit"

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

And if you replace Durbin with Manny Machado, we’re even better because Machado can make pays at third base the others cannot…

Sure, but 2 way studs are not often available.  But yes, my point is go get elite players.  Machado would be welcomed.

[moonslav59]

Paredes now has a .362 OBP and a .760 OPS.

His 3 HRs and 6 2Bs are low, but he's a much better batter than Durbin, Mayer, Monasterio & IKF.

I still can't believe HOU would have or did said no to Duran for him.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

I was all about Marte or Paredes.  Not sure AZ was wild about my Duran/Bello offer.  Never even returned my calls…

They really wanted Mayer. Sox didn't want to give up Mayer. Is there a Mayer package that's worth it? 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

There is getting around that.  For example, if we had a great DH, then Durbin wouldnt be a huge problem 

But we are left behind because... 

there are too many OFers and not one big bat that is a great fit for DH. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

And if you replace Durbin with Manny Machado, we’re even better because Machado can make pays at third base the others cannot…

Sox fans would get to boo him for 81 home games every season too! 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Plenty of good bats change hands every year, and btw (not directing this at you) the de-prioritization of getting (and keeping) stud hitters didnt start this offseason.  Its like every year we subtract a bat and then just cross our fingers that it will magically be replaced.  And I think you are seeing a team that shows the flaw of that logic. Logic being : "we never struggle to hit"

They lost a bat without a guy that can play that position. If they lost an OF bat, it would have been less of an issue. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They lost a bat without a guy that can play that position. If they lost an OF bat, it would have been less of an issue. 

Because none of the OF bats were as good.  If that OF bat was an elite hitter, I disagree.  But becasue all of the OF bats are like B/B+ hitters , I agree.

Trading prime Betts hurts regardless if you you have a next man up. 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

there are too many OFers and not one big bat that is a great fit for DH. 

Devers to DH, Cedanne to infield.  Done.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They really wanted Mayer. Sox didn't want to give up Mayer. Is there a Mayer package that's worth it? 

Yes for Yordan.

[drewski6]

In a world where we have no elite bats, and none really close, and we are near the bottom in all raking categories and of course stink...There is a chorus of:

We should have gotten this average hitter who can play 3b, we need to swap our ss and 2b positionally, we need a better lefty pen arm, we need to fire a coach, we need to play people consistently at the same lineup order....

Yup, and the titanic needed new deck chairs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is there a Mayer package that's worth it? 

Tolle's calling Joey Chestnut:

https://www.oscarmayer.com/products/00044700000632-classic-wieners-hot-dogs

 

 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

In a world where we have no elite bats, and none really close, and we are near the bottom in all raking categories and of course stink...There is a chorus of:

We should have gotten this average hitter who can play 3b, we need to swap our ss and 2b positionally, we need a better lefty pen arm, we need to fire a coach, we need to play people consistently at the same lineup order....

Yup, and the titanic needed new deck chairs.

The second Duran got consistent PA's, he's really taken off (1310 OPS May). Several of us were asking for that. Duran isn't a guy that can perform well if he's getting too much time on the bench. 

If they had an average hitter at 3b rather than a bottom 5 hitter, would it make a big difference? Of course! 

If they benched Story, moved Rafaela to 2b and Mayer to SS, does the offense become a little better? Most likely! Moving Story to 2b short term at least gives Story a chance to pull himself out of his slump. If he still stinks at the end of May, time to go I guess. He's been one of the worst hitters in all of baseball! 

Is there an easy fix for Roman? Probably not! The levers you have right now Duran/Story/Durbin who were also your worst performers. Either figure out how to get them to play better (check for Duran!) or swap them out for more productive players.

Pining for Devers at this point is worthless. 

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The second Duran got consistent PA's, he's really taken off (1310 OPS May). Several of us were asking for that. Duran isn't a guy that can perform well if he's getting too much time on the bench. 

If they had an average hitter at 3b rather than a bottom 5 hitter, would it make a big difference? Of course! 

If they benched Story, moved Rafaela to 2b and Mayer to SS, does the offense become a little better? Most likely! Moving Story to 2b short term at least gives Story a chance to pull himself out of his slump. If he still stinks at the end of May, time to go I guess. He's been one of the worst hitters in all of baseball! 

Is there an easy fix for Roman? Probably not! The levers you have right now Duran/Story/Durbin who were also your worst performers. Either figure out how to get them to play better (check for Duran!) or swap them out for more productive players.

Pining for Devers at this point is worthless. 

Understood adding all that up and its significant.  And the Duran turnaround is significant on its own laurels (sp?) and it pulled a W out of a would be defeat just yesterday.  Still, it would be nice to have one elite hitter and Im going to keep pining for one until we get one externally or internally.  And of the list of elite hitters, lets say top 20 wrc+ , Devers is one of the least likely to obtain.....So not pining for him, but I am saying that I consider Devers when I justify my disgust for Breslow.  Not because I think Breslow can go get him back, but because the issue was smoothed over when Devers was traded....And I do think that he would have helped in the yankees series last year and thus far this year, even though his SF numbers may stink.

Trading Devers was part of the problem, but Devers is not part of the solution.  If Hous firesales, Im very interested in Yordan.