Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What if the ChiSox held off until Monty was a 2+ fWAR guy before promotion? 🤩

2WAR/1million = 2:1 War to millions paid.

Does Crochet make 22.5M? Well he better have 45 WAR because if he doesnt , Monty is the better asset. Bad trade! 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

This is the extent of his MiLB service. He's barely played and hasn't really knocked the door down. ST numbers don't really matter. Are we chomping at the bit to put Mickey Gasper on the 26 man roster? If the ChiSox really want to build something, jumping the gun on Montgomery isn't a smart move especially for a farm that is still middle of the pack.

I lean agree.  It might be something other than pure wins/losses contributing to a call up.  Like maybe they have a TV deal up for renewal and young players = more eyes. Nobody wants to watch a team of journeyman struggle but its always fun to watch the up-and-comers, even if they lose because then those losses are "growing pains / flashes of whats to come",  It gives a reason to care even if the team stinks. 

[mvp 78]

ChiSox are projected to be the worst team in the league. Adding Montgomery to the mix won't help with viewers or attendance. Adding Mookie in 2014 didn't pop any ratings for the Sox. 

 

[moonslav59]

I doubt the CWS add him for opening day, but the kid is probably already better than someone on their 26. They suck.

2027 is probably when they start strongly considering adding him, and even then, they may wait until he gains another year of control, assuming the rules are the same.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, drewski6 said:

But youve said many times its all about WAR/$ , no?    If Braden Montgomery has a projected 1.3WAR at min wage (round to 1m). Thats 1.3 War / $ (in millions). 

Cedanne is $6.5m (tax hit, which you always use) and is projected 4.7m WAR.  So thats .72 War/$$

So according to your own logic, Monty (this year) is almost double the value of Cedanne!  What a bargain! And what about next year when Montgomery gives you 2.5m on a 1m tax hit (2.5 War/ $ in millions)!  And the year after , he may even be a 4m on a 1m tax hit ( a whopping 4 WAR / $ in millions).

So over next 3 years , Monty is like a cumulative 7.8/WAR(in millions) over the next 3 yars but Cedanne is only like 2.5m  So Monty is worth 3 Cedannes!!!!!  

Or maybe this is exactly why WAR / $ is a grossly oversimplified metric.

 

Why are you comparing Montgomery, who will be lucky to start in AAA for the WS, to Raffy?  And FG projects Monty for a 0.0 WAR.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

57 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Why are you comparing Montgomery, who will be lucky to start in AAA for the WS, to Raffy?  And FG projects Monty for a 0.0 WAR.

So if a ballplayer is worth no Wins and not a negative WAR, then he's a complete Zero -- the definition of a Replacement Player...

(... who I always equated as one of us, walking down the street with a ticket to the ballpark, but stopped by a team official with an offer of a one-night stipend to wear the laundry and stumble around on the diamond because they needed one more guy to field a Nine and not forfeit so they didn't have to refund all the other fans).

[notin]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

ChiSox are projected to be the worst team in the league. Adding Montgomery to the mix won't help with viewers or attendance. Adding Mookie in 2014 didn't pop any ratings for the Sox. 

 

The White Sox don’t draw fans unless the team is far ahead in first place.  I when I go, it’s honestly nearly 40-50% Red Sox fans…

[moonslav59]

Quentin Priester has a nerve issue is his shoulder.

The injury is “in that thoracic outlet syndrome family.”

-MLBTR

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Quentin Priester has a nerve issue is his shoulder.

The injury is “in that thoracic outlet syndrome family.”

-MLBTR

Breslow, you stiff. 

[drewski6]

18 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Why are you comparing Montgomery, who will be lucky to start in AAA for the WS, to Raffy?  And FG projects Monty for a 0.0 WAR.

2 reasons.

1. Because the question posed was why would they ever call him up this early and so I operated from a standpoint that he'd be called up (not to imply that I agree he should be - just tried to think of a reason why a team would consider it)

2. To take a cheap shot at your WAR / $$ is everything belief because its an oversimplification.  WAR/$$ is a good great way to view a contract , sure, but saying [insert anything] is all about [insert anything] is false.  

WAR/$ is not the be-all, end-all way of evaluating a contract/potential FA contract because nothing is the be-all, end-all way of evaluating a contract/potential FA contract.

Now regarding the cheap shot - I am making an effort to be less of a "dingus" to you and at least it wasnt personal this time.  

My personal mantra is: People say everything happens for a reason but the truth is the opposite. Nothing happens for a reason.  Anything that has ever happened ever has happened because of a combination of MULTIPLE reasons.  

[moonslav59]

ST'ing should never be used to project season stats, but we have some eye-popping numbers, so far...

2.176 Duran

1.563 Contreras

1.438 Rafaela

1.206 Eaton

1.189 Gasper

1.093 Durbin

1.086 Story

1.016 IKF

.940 Narvaez

.900 Ward

.816 Mayer

.809 Ferguson

.797 Castro, .754 McDonough, .735 Hickey

.623 KC, .616 Anthony, .611 Romero, .586 Thaiss

.437 Abreu, .382 Sogard, .247 Wong

WBC

1.654 Yoshida

1.412 Duran

1.238 Cheng

 

 

 

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I am making an effort to be less of a "dingus" to you

I'm unaffected by it.  I care more about being right, and about as importantly, why I am wrong.

IRT the WAR/$$$, because of the way players are paid, the model is not linear.  The current salary structure pays veterans far better than they pay kids.  The correct comparison for Montgomery would be other minimum wage players.  The correct comp for Ceddanne is likely other young-ish players with long-term contracts.  The correct comp for Crochet is likely other FAs.  There are always some cross-over, but you can never compare a high-priced FA, like Alonso for example, to a 3rd year player like Busch for example, on a WAR/basis.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm unaffected by it.  I care more about being right, and about as importantly, why I am wrong.

IRT the WAR/$$$, because of the way players are paid, the model is not linear.  The current salary structure pays veterans far better than they pay kids.  The correct comparison for Montgomery would be other minimum wage players.  The correct comp for Ceddanne is likely other young-ish players with long-term contracts.  The correct comp for Crochet is likely other FAs.  There are always some cross-over, but you can never compare a high-priced FA, like Alonso for example, to a 3rd year player like Busch for example, on a WAR/basis.

And also because studs are rare.  I will accept this though.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

And also because studs are rare.  I will accept this though.

This is really imprecise, but a necessary part of the equation.  Guys like Alonso & Bregman are just good players.  Guys like Judge, Ohtani, etc., play on a much higher level.  Same with guys like Skubal, Skenes, etc.  I'm paying a good bit more $$$/WAR for the truly elite guys,

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

This is really imprecise, but a necessary part of the equation.  Guys like Alonso & Bregman are just good players.  Guys like Judge, Ohtani, etc., play on a much higher level.  Same with guys like Skubal, Skenes, etc.  I'm paying a good bit more $$$/WAR for the truly elite guys,

Indeed.

How many "elite" players have the Sox signed, this century?

I count two: Manny & Price.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed.

How many "elite" players have the Sox signed, this century?

I count two: Manny & Price.

Pedro and Crochet were both trade-and-extend guys.  The whole 'elite' thing means that there are very few of them.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Pedro and Crochet were both trade-and-extend guys.  The whole 'elite' thing means that there are very few of them.

Yup. We've traded for more than we signed, as I'd add Sale.

In system? Betts and _____?

[harmony]

On 2/7/2026 at 7:32 AM, harmony said:

This week ZiPS released its three-year projections, including these numbers for Marcelo Mayer and Ben Williamson:

2026: MM 1.0 WAR in 88 games; BW 2.0 WAR in 134 games

2027: MM 1.1 WAR in 93 games; BW 1.7 WAR in 133 games

2028: MM 1.4 WAR in 98 games; BW 1.8 WAR in 130 games

In total, ZiPS projects Mayer with 3.5 WAR in 279 games (1.25/100) and Williamson with 5.5 WAR in 397 games (1.39/100).

FanGraphs’ 2026 projections from eight sources generally offer similar parallels:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats/batting#dashboard

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ben-williamson/33197/stats/batting#dashboard

Mayer and Williamson each come with six years of team control; neither is likely to attain Super Two status after the 2027 season.

Nevertheless, Baseball Trade Values assigns Mayer $50.9 million in surplus value and Williamson $7.8 million in surplus value.

Does Mayer cling to a trade value based on a top prospect sheen that may have worn off?

Let's revisit a February forum discussion after Tampa Bay second baseman Ben Williamson went 2-for-4 with a walk, two runs and one RBI in the Rays' win over the Red Sox on Thursday.

At the time, the debate was whether a Boston package of Marcelo Mayer and Kyson Witherspoon was comparable to Seattle's trade of Williamson and Jurrangelo Cijntje for St. Louis infielder Brendan Donovan.

Williamson and Mayer have each played 33 games this season, with Williamson posting 0.3 bWAR (0.1 fWAR) and an OPS+ 91 (92 wRC+) while Mayer has posted 0.2 bWAR (0.3 fWAR) and an OPS+ of 86 (81 wRC+).

The small samples are not particularly significant but the numbers are generally in line with projections from multiple sources.

FWIW, Cijntje has posted an ERA of 5.74 in six starts with Springfield of the Double A Texas League while Witherspoon has posted an ERA of 7.06 in six starts with Greenville of the High A South Atlantic League. Cijntje and Witherspoon were the No. 15 overall draft picks in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Let's revisit a February forum discussion after Tampa Bay second baseman Ben Williamson went 2-for-4 with a walk, two runs and one RBI in the Rays' win over the Red Sox on Thursday.

At the time, the debate was whether a Boston package of Marcelo Mayer and Kyson Witherspoon was comparable to Seattle's trade of Williamson and Jurrangelo Cijntje for St. Louis infielder Brendan Donovan.

Williamson and Mayer have each played 33 games this season, with Williamson posting 0.3 bWAR (0.1 fWAR) and an OPS+ 91 (92 wRC+) while Mayer has posted 0.2 bWAR (0.3 fWAR) and an OPS+ of 86 (81 wRC+).

The small samples are not particularly significant but the numbers are generally in line with projections from multiple sources.

FWIW, Cijntje has posted an ERA of 5.74 in six starts with Springfield of the Double A Texas League while Witherspoon has posted an ERA of 7.06 in six starts with Greenville of the High A South Atlantic League. Cijntje and Witherspoon were the No. 15 overall draft picks in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Is there a point here?

Tiny 6 start, pretty close numbered sample sizes are supposed to mean something?

BTW, when is Donovan coming off the IL? He was doing very well, beforehand.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, harmony said:

the debate was whether a Boston package of Marcelo Mayer and Kyson Witherspoon was comparable to Seattle's trade of Williamson and Jurrangelo Cijntje for St. Louis infielder Brendan Donovan.

Very interesting analysis.

[harmony]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is there a point here?

Tiny 6 start, pretty close numbered sample sizes are supposed to mean something?

BTW, when is Donovan coming off the IL? He was doing very well, beforehand.

Today the Seattle Mariners activated 3B Brendan Donovan from the 10-day injured list.

https://www.mlb.com/mariners/roster/transactions

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, harmony said:

Today the Seattle Mariners activated 3B Brendan Donovan from the 10-day injured list.

https://www.mlb.com/mariners/roster/transactions

Thanks to the pressure applied by Moon.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, harmony said:

Today the Seattle Mariners activated 3B Brendan Donovan from the 10-day injured list.

https://www.mlb.com/mariners/roster/transactions

I liked Donovan and BLowe as secondary options (pun intended) and never thought about Durbin till it happened. 

Then again, I also thought about Polanco and ESuarez who is barely better on D than Devers.

I'm just glad it wasn't Bichette.

I liked Breggie but at no where near the offers we and the Cubs made.

[notin]

On 3/14/2026 at 4:56 PM, JoeBrady said:

This is really imprecise, but a necessary part of the equation.  Guys like Alonso & Bregman are just good players.  Guys like Judge, Ohtani, etc., play on a much higher level.  Same with guys like Skubal, Skenes, etc.  I'm paying a good bit more $$$/WAR for the truly elite guys,

I’ve been watching the Cubs a lot the last few years.  
 

This year that team has no one any fan would consider an elite hitter.  Ian Happ is not an elite hitter. They have no pitcher anyone would consider an “ace” and maybe not even a “#1 starter”, a phrase I feel dirty for using.  They did go crazy rebuilding their bullpen this off-season, but most of those acquisitions are injured, along with most of their returning relievers (and 3 starting pitchers).

Also they have two 10 game winning streaks in the past 23 games.

They just have good players that can all hit and all field their positions…

 

[moonslav59]

It's hard to determine who rates to be an "elite bat" over the next 2-3 years.

Using career OPS for a 32-35 year old seems illogical.

Using most recent 2-3 year OPS might be better, but is likely still flawed.

Using just last year has serious flaws, too.

Using age regression charts as part of the calculation is probably helpful, and I think fangraphs projections does this to some extent, but to me it's mostly a stab in the dark, and our track record has pretty much sucked since the JD signing.