Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's the whole thing.  We don't know how they come up with their version of WAR, or even if they have their own version.  Just taking a look at bWAR v fWAR, there is a difference of 0.9 WAR.  Theoretically, 0.9 * 6 years * $10M/WAR is a difference of $54M.  And that's without an inflation factor.  I'm not bagging on BTV, but a long duration * even a small difference, yields a large variance.

Yes, I get what you mean about the long deals.

Add 1 WAR and it adds 7.

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, drewski6 said:

This is more penciling in than I am comfortable doing at this point in time.  I think we need to expect injuries and slumps and breakouts. Every season has twists and turns.  As of this very moment, Im not looking to hand away Duran because "4 OF'ers", Duran has been durable and has hit a lot of doubles and right now is probably our #3 hitter.

Im not against Harper, but at this point in time, Im not willing to swap Duran for Harper.

Fair enough. I don't think you're 'handing him' away. You're clearing some salary and bringing in a power bat to play DH, while freeing up the roster from a virtually useless Masa and Casas. 

It'll never happen, and I'm not even sure it should, but as much as I like Duran - he's 4th outfielder right now and will stay that way unless something happens. Which is fine in itself, not many, if any teams have that sort of cover, but Harper isn't nothing, and brings an element this team badly misses - power. 

Regardless, it doesn't feel like a Brez move. I was mostly just mostly putting it down to stress test it in my mind. 

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, Old Red said:

Heard an interview with TC this morning from the Fort. He said Mayer’s can go anywhere from being the starting 2B to being sent to Woo, and trying to work his way back up to Boston. TC said this is a big ST for Mayer’s, because he hasn’t proven anything yet, and especially being able to stay on the field.

This is why I made the argument to trade Mayer for Marte (or another) earlier in the off season (though no way I do the Marte trade with Early as well!). Mayer is on a knife edge. Could really go either way and I'd rather the known quantity. 

Now he's staying, with luck, he really kicks on, but I would not be surprised if he turns out to be a relative bust in relation to his sky-high expectations a year or two ago. His health and bat have a long way to go yet...

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

This is why I made the argument to trade Mayer for Marte (or another) earlier in the off season (though no way I do the Marte trade with Early as well!). Mayer is on a knife edge. Could really go either way and I'd rather the known quantity. 

Now he's staying, with luck, he really kicks on, but I would not be surprised if he turns out to be a relative bust in relation to his sky-high expectations a year or two ago. His health and bat have a long way to go yet...

I'd have bitten the bullet and traded Mayer + Tolle for Marte. (I'd expect a prospect back, but I'd do the deal without one.)

We are in a 3-5+ year window, right now. KMarte could start a steep decline at any moment. I fully understand the gamble, but Mayer & Tolle are gambles, too.

Marte is a switch hitting power bat, who also gets on base enough and plays 2B pretty well. We could have still done the Durbin & Contreras deals, and even IKF would be okay, but we'd probably have to save some money to pay for KMarte. Maybe deal Sandoval with no IKF.

Of course, trading Duran and his $7.7M AAV might have been done.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd have bitten the bullet and traded Mayer + Tolle for Marte. (I'd expect a prospect back, but I'd do the deal without one.)

We are in a 3-5+ year window, right now. KMarte could start a steep decline at any moment. I fully understand the gamble, but Mayer & Tolle are gambles, too.

Marte is a switch hitting power bat, who also gets on base enough and plays 2B pretty well. We could have still done the Durbin & Contreras deals, and even IKF would be okay, but we'd probably have to save some money to pay for KMarte. Maybe deal Sandoval with no IKF.

Of course, trading Duran and his $7.7M AAV might have been done.

I don't do that deal either. I'd have done Mayer and Harrison, but no more. The Marte contract is good but we were getting the lesser years of him. I've no problem the Red Sox telling them to go away when asking for both Mayer and Tolle/Early.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I don't do that deal either. I'd have done Mayer and Harrison, but no more. The Marte contract is good but we were getting the lesser years of him. I've no problem the Red Sox telling them to go away when asking for both Mayer and Tolle/Early.

Mayer & Harrison for Neto, maybe, but LAA probably says no.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer & Harrison for Neto, maybe, but LAA probably says no.

No way do they say yes to that. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

No way do they say yes to that. 

True, even if we added Witherspoon or Valera.

Do you think it takes a bigger offer for Neto or KMarte?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

No way do they say yes to that. 

...and with all the SSs we drafted, why didn't we get one like Neto?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, even if we added Witherspoon or Valera.

Do you think it takes a bigger offer for Neto or KMarte?

Neto could command more due to the contract size. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

...and with all the SSs we drafted, why didn't we get one like Neto?

Yorke - hit over power

Mayer - all around player

Romero - power over hit (hasn't made it to MLB yet)

Angels rushed guys to the bigs and it hasn't always worked out (Schanuel, Paris, Adell). 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yorke - hit over power

Mayer - all around player

Romero - power over hit (hasn't made it to MLB yet)

Angels rushed guys to the bigs and it hasn't always worked out (Schanuel, Paris, Adell). 

...and 

Cannon (43) & Lugo (69) in '19

Cutter Coffey (41) in '22 (Meidroth at 129 might have been our best choice)

Zanetello (50) & Anderson (89) in '23

[JoeBrady]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

...and with all the SSs we drafted, why didn't we get one like Neto?

They picked higher.

[JoeBrady]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Angels rushed guys to the bigs and it hasn't always worked out (Schanuel, Paris, Adell). 

It always works out poorly, yet they continue to do so.  Moore is the latest.  He was on roughly a 200-K pace in AA & AAA.  That almost never works.  So they promote him, and he has a 230-K pace, almost exactly what you would expect.  So they come 4th in HRs and 25th in runs scored.  And seemingly don't understand that that was because they struck out more than any team in BB, by a lot.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It always works out poorly, yet they continue to do so.  Moore is the latest.  He was on roughly a 200-K pace in AA & AAA.  That almost never works.  So they promote him, and he has a 230-K pace, almost exactly what you would expect.  So they come 4th in HRs and 25th in runs scored.  And seemingly don't understand that that was because they struck out more than any team in BB, by a lot.

Even if the players eventually work out in year 3 or 4, the years of control are already halfway over. It just makes no sense. There is every reason in the world to give a player an extra few years of seasoning prior to being promoted (years of control, PPI, better developed tools).

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if the players eventually work out in year 3 or 4, the years of control are already halfway over. It just makes no sense. There is every reason in the world to give a player an extra few years of seasoning prior to being promoted (years of control, PPI, better developed tools).

Absolutely. This is why they added things like prospect promotion incentives.  It made too much sense to keep dudes down as long as possible , so you get their prime years under rookie contracts and their late prime in arb years lol.  It was too exploitable.  It was unfair to the players becaue they couldnt hit FA before 31 and everyone took advantage.......

.....except the Angels (lololol)

[drewski6]

How you luck into Trout and Ohtani and have like nothing to show for it.....Im not even mad, Im impressed.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

How you luck into Trout and Ohtani and have like nothing to show for it.....Im not even mad, Im impressed.

In '22 when Trout had 40 HR, Ohtani had 34 (9.6 bWAR with pitching) and Sandoval had an ERA under 3, the rest of the offense was so bad (4 everyday starters under 700) that the Angels were 25th in runs, 24th in defense, 1st in k%. Record was 73-89! 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In '22 when Trout had 40 HR, Ohtani had 34 (9.6 bWAR with pitching) and Sandoval had an ERA under 3, the rest of the offense was so bad (4 everyday starters under 700) that the Angels were 25th in runs, 24th in defense, 1st in k%. Record was 73-89! 

That would be hard to do again even if they tried lol

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

That would be hard to do again even if they tried lol

I have faith they could do just as bad. 

Josh Hamilton 5/125

Rendon 7/245

Pujols 10/240

Upton 5/106

The Vernon Wells trade was pretty bad too. 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I have faith they could do just as bad. 

Josh Hamilton 5/125

Rendon 7/245

Pujols 10/240

Upton 5/106

The Vernon Wells trade was pretty bad too. 

HAHAHA, Ill concede to you on this one.  The Angels dysfunction is consistently at a level that nobody else in baseball can get to. They are the Nets of the MLB

[notin]

On 2/17/2026 at 3:22 PM, drewski6 said:

Durans go way up if you play him in CF though.

Unless he botches it again…

[notin]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I have faith they could do just as bad. 

Josh Hamilton 5/125

Rendon 7/245

Pujols 10/240

Upton 5/106

The Vernon Wells trade was pretty bad too. 

CJ Wilson 5 years $77.5mill…

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

CJ Wilson 5 years $77.5mill…

I think it was same day (maybe after midnight so technically next day) as Pujols deal too.  Great day to be a Rangers fan haha.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

They picked higher.

Yes, that year. Neto was a 13th pick in 2022.

We picked Teel at #14 in 2023 (not saying a bad pick.)

We picked Montgomery at #12 in '24 (another chunk of the Crochet trade.)

Witherspoon was a 16th pick.

Mayer was the 4th pick!

Yorke 17th.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

How you luck into Trout and Ohtani and have like nothing to show for it.....Im not even mad, Im impressed.

It's an amazing journey.  I complained about every strategy long before they adopted it.  Among my favorites:

• Age doesn't matter.  The one constant was the age of their acquisitions.  Pujols (32), Hamilton (32), Upton (30), Cozart (32), Rendon (30), Soler (33), Wells (32), Hunter (32).  The aging decline curves have long been known, but LAA refuses to acknowledge the science.
• Ks don't count.  They have 8 guys in their lineup that will K at least 150 times if they play the full season.
• Minors don't count.  Between Schanuel, Neto, Adell, Moore & Paris had about 212 AAA ABs, collectively, before they got promoted.

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

...and with all the SSs we drafted, why didn't we get one like Neto?

Neto was a 13th overall pick.
 

The only players  the Sox drafted in that neighborhood since Mayer, they packaged up and shipped out for Garrett Crochet…

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It's an amazing journey.  I complained about every strategy long before they adopted it.  Among my favorites:

• Age doesn't matter.  The one constant was the age of their acquisitions.  Pujols (32), Hamilton (32), Upton (30), Cozart (32), Rendon (30), Soler (33), Wells (32), Hunter (32).  The aging decline curves have long been known, but LAA refuses to acknowledge the science.
• Ks don't count.  They have 8 guys in their lineup that will K at least 150 times if they play the full season.
• Minors don't count.  Between Schanuel, Neto, Adell, Moore & Paris had about 212 AAA ABs, collectively, before they got promoted.

Schanuel was in the majors 2 months after being drafted.  For a position player, thats almost unheard of.  The only other player I can think of to reach MLB within 2 months of being drafted  was Ryan Zimmerman.

Relief pitchers do it all the time.  But position players?  Even the ones like Incaviglia that skip the minors entirely usually debut in April.

(Ok Dave Winfield did debut in MLB within days of being drafted.  But that was over 50 years ago.)

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

The only players  the Sox drafted in that neighborhood since Mayer, they packaged up and shipped out for Garrett Crochet…

Plus, the "throw in" Meidroth.

[moonslav59]

Sox SSs drafted since 2004 (top 4 rounds or notables)

2004: Pedroia (#65)

2007: Ryan Dent (62)

2008: Casey Kelly RHP/SS (30) & Derrick Gibson (77)

2009: David Renfroe (107)

2010: Sean Coyle (110) & Garin Cecchini (143)

2011: 5th Rd. Mookie Betts (172)

2012: Deven Marrero (24)

2014: Michael Chavis (26)

2016: CJ Chatham (51)

2019: Cameron Cannon (43) & M Lugo (69)

2021: Mayer (4)

2022: Romero (24)  Cutter Coffey (41) & Meidroth (129)

2023: Zanetello (50) A Anderson (83) K Campbell (132) J Riemer (133)

2025: Mason White (118)