Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Romy is not the Sox best hitter.  He looks deceivingly good because he does excel vs LHP, and he was given a disproportionate number of plate appearances against them.

Not so much.

198 PAs vs RHPs

143 PAs vs LHPs

That is more vs LHPs  than a FT'er gets percentage wise, but Romy started 38 vs R and 38 v L.

[Larry Cook]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

And I think the Sox are going to try to upgrade over Lowe/Toro/Romy at 1b.  I think Alonso is on their radar because 1) he likely won’t command the same money as Bregman or Bichette and 2) I can’t stand him, and the Sox seem to love grabbing names off that list…

Why didn’t we grab him last off season when Casas was also coming off an injury 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Why didn’t we grab him last off season when Casas was also coming off an injury 

Casas was apparently 100% to start the 2025 season.

Had we figured out Romy would hit .718 vs RHPs, we might have played him there earlier and more often.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Why didn’t we grab him last off season when Casas was also coming off an injury 

We spent our allowance on Bregman…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Not so much.

198 PAs vs RHPs

143 PAs vs LHPs

That is more vs LHPs  than a FT'er gets percentage wise, but Romy started 38 vs R and 38 v L.

143 out of 341 PAs (42%) vs LHP is absolutely disproportionate…

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

143 out of 341 PAs (42%) vs LHP is absolutely disproportionate…

It's not even close to a normal platoon.

The norm would be 29% v LHPs. I guess 13% fro the norm is technically disproportionate, but IMO, it's not that far off. Hardly anyone is 71-29.

Most short-side platoons bat more than 50% v L.

[Randy Red Sox]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not even close to a normal platoon.

The norm would be 29% v LHPs. I guess 13% fro the norm is technically disproportionate, but IMO, it's not that far off. Hardly anyone is 71-29.

Most short-side platoons bat more than 50% v L.

why so much discussion on a guy who should be a back-up if we truly want to contend?

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

why so much discussion on a guy who should be a back-up if we truly want to contend?

Not much else to talk about.

I kinda like Romy, but I hope we don't count on him as a FT'er, next season, just because he happened to hit .718 v RHPs.

He is a damn good back-up or platoon bat.

[Randy Red Sox]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not much else to talk about.

I kinda like Romy, but I hope we don't count on him as a FT'er, next season, just because he happened to hit .718 v RHPs.

He is a damn good back-up or platoon bat.

i agree with that on Romy.  Winter meetings Dec 7-8. That is when things MAY finally happen. MLB FA is a complete joke.

[Larry Cook]

What is the priority for this offseason? 
 

number 2 starting pitcher or

big bat??? 

[Randy Red Sox]

37 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

What is the priority for this offseason? 
 

number 2 starting pitcher or

big bat??? 

BOTH. 1

[Randy Red Sox]

both--1 without the other is useless. And if Bregman is gone we need TWO big bats--1 LH and 1RH

[moonslav59]

One may be more important than the other, but both are such high needs that we might as well call it a tie.

We also need a 3rd major add.

Big Bopper (1B, 3B/2B)

SP2

3B/2B or 1B (see #1)

 

[Larry Cook]

How about for 2026, we acquire two quality starting pitchers, and keep all our current outfielders instead!!! 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

How about for 2026, we acquire two quality starting pitchers, and keep all our current outfielders instead!!! 

Can you explain how we play 4 FT OF'ers in 3 slots?

Do you want Duran, the worst defender of the 4 to DH most games?

How is Duran at DH bring us the same value he'd have on another team as an OF'er?

We have 4 very plus OF'ers along with 2 very good young depth pieces and the chance of bringing Ref back. We also have Yoshida, who the brass seems to think is meant for LF not DH.

We have great needs at SP2, 1B and 2B/3B (or both.) It seems so simple to me. All the ingredients are in line for a trade.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/13/2025 at 1:47 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

schwarber is not leaving Philly-bank on it

He is the key DD guy.  I think they come to terms with Realmuto, but not certain.  But Schwarber stays.  I need  Polymarket site for these things.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/20/2025 at 7:05 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

Masa and Ref at DH doesn't get it done at all.  Tother they might total 25 HR'S. I could easily see it happening though.

The MLB average last year was 27.5.  If this allows us bigger improvements elsewhere, I am okay with it.  My bigger concern might be that we also need Ref to spell Abreu and/or Duran against tough lefties.

[JoeBrady]

19 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

How about for 2026, we acquire two quality starting pitchers, and keep all our current outfielders instead!!! 

Because we don't need four OFs.  I agree on 2 quality SPs, but if we can trade one of our OFs for an equivalent WAR 1B, 2B, or 3B, why not?

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

He is the key DD guy.  I think they come to terms with Realmuto, but not certain.  But Schwarber stays.  I need  Polymarket site for these things.

Do you feel the same way about Steve Cohen resigning Alonso as well? A reality where we miss on both of them is likely, and scary to me. I just don’t see a lot of Bats out there we could go get that solve our lack of power problem. Ketel Marte trade? Who else? Go trade for Jo Adell? Trying to think of 30+ HR bats we could acquire if we miss on both free agent power bats. 

[UtahSox]

Saw the Masslive report we have shown interest in Donavan from the Cards. Thoughts if we traded Abreu and K Campbell + pitcher for Willson Contreras& Donovan? Then went all the way in on Schwarber, literally just raising the # until he said yes. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Saw the Masslive report we have shown interest in Donavan from the Cards. Thoughts if we traded Abreu and K Campbell + pitcher for Willson Contreras& Donovan? Then went all the way in on Schwarber, literally just raising the # until he said yes. 

It's hard to know what STL's thinking is, but I have to think they'd like to get out from under some large contracts, and BTV has 3 players underwater.

Arenado (please, God, NO!!!) Owed  $27M in '26

W Contreras (we need a 1Bman with some power.) Owed $18M in '26, $18.5M in '27 w $17.5M option for '28 w $5M buyout, so essentially $41M/2 or $54M/3

Sonny Gray (We could use a solid pitcher, but his age is worrisome.) He's owed $35M in '26 w $30M option for "27 and $5M buyout, so $40M/1 or $65M/2.

AAV Numbers are significantly different from what is owed on some:

$30.5 Arenado (They'd have to take Yoshida for me to even consider taking him.) BTV -16 seems like he is way more in the hole.

$24.8M Gray (This is reasonable) BTV -9

$17.5M Contreras (Not bad) BTV -24 (seems harsh)

Donovan is +32 on BTV

BTV would accept Rafaela for Donovan or maybe Campbell.

Donovan + Contreras= $8M value. If we could get STL to take Hicks, maybe Casas, Harrison + Hicks comes close.

[notin]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Do you feel the same way about Steve Cohen resigning Alonso as well? A reality where we miss on both of them is likely, and scary to me. I just don’t see a lot of Bats out there we could go get that solve our lack of power problem. Ketel Marte trade? Who else? Go trade for Jo Adell? Trying to think of 30+ HR bats we could acquire if we miss on both free agent power bats. 

Cohen/Mets didn’t sign Alonso long term a year ago and instead just went with the one year deal.  I have my doubts they view Alonso as a 6-7 year solution and are much more likely to spend their allowance tjis year upgrading their AAAA grade starting rotation.  They might be able to get by with Baty and Vientos handling the corner infield roles.  And if not, they can fix that situation in July…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Cohen/Mets didn’t sign Alonso long term a year ago and instead just went with the one year deal.  I have my doubts they view Alonso as a 6-7 year solution and are much more likely to spend their allowance tjis year upgrading their AAAA grade starting rotation.  They might be able to get by with Baty and Vientos handling the corner infield roles.  And if not, they can fix that situation in July…

I agree. Alonso is now a year older. Sure, he had a better season in '25 than '24, but it was his third best OPS+ season, so it's not like "WOW, he's getting even better."

I could see us signing Alonso and the Mets signing Bregman. They may just sign another FA 1Bman and use the money on Tucker or a pitcher. They had a .598 OPS in CF in 2025. 1B is an easier slot to fill than OF and pitching.

Yes, they could give Baty and Vientos a shot at 1B and move at the deadline, if needed.

[moonslav59]

I think Alonso likes NY, but I'm not sure he was too happy with the contract offer made last winter. If that was the Sox, some would be saying it was a disrespectful offer, and claim that's why nobody likes to play here, anymore.

[Larry Cook]

On 11/22/2025 at 4:12 PM, moonslav59 said:

Can you explain how we play 4 FT OF'ers in 3 slots?

Do you want Duran, the worst defender of the 4 to DH most games?

How is Duran at DH bring us the same value he'd have on another team as an OF'er?

We have 4 players for 3 positions because Anthony has to play everyday and fortunately he can play all three outfield spots. 

abreau has not proven to me that he can hit left handed pitching. 

the others rotate based on who the opposing pitcher is and if we are at home or away 

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Do you feel the same way about Steve Cohen resigning Alonso as well? A reality where we miss on both of them is likely, and scary to me. I just don’t see a lot of Bats out there we could go get that solve our lack of power problem. Ketel Marte trade? Who else? Go trade for Jo Adell? Trying to think of 30+ HR bats we could acquire if we miss on both free agent power bats. 

 I don't think the Mets are crazy about Alonso.  They didn't sign him long-term last year, thought they easily could have.  I like Adell well enough, but I'm not sure of the fit.  I think he'd look real good in LF for us, but we are already one over the limit on outfielders.   I think if we followed Moon's thinking, and traded both Abreu & Duran, then Adell would be a heck of a target.  Kind of like when I wanted Willingham and wound up with the mega-expensive Crawford.  Adell's 35-HR bat sitting in the 6-slot would be very dangerous.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Arenado (please, God, NO!!!) Owed  $27M in '26

BTV would accept Rafaela for Donovan or maybe Campbell.

I think there is near-0 chance that we target Donovan.  Lefty hitters with split problems is what we are (hopefully) trying to trade away from.  In any case, I'd never trade Ceddanne for Donovan.  Ceddanne is already a better player, with 7 years of control v Donovan's 2 years of control.

And just imho, Arenado is a legit target since StL wants to get rid of him.  It's a matter of how much StL kicks in, and how we add offense at other positions.  Maybe if we acquired Donovan + Arenado for Casas, and signed Alonso for 1st, we'd have a good offense without crippling us salary-wise.

[notin]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I think there is near-0 chance that we target Donovan.  Lefty hitters with split problems is what we are (hopefully) trying to trade away from.  In any case, I'd never trade Ceddanne for Donovan.  Ceddanne is already a better player, with 7 years of control v Donovan's 2 years of control.

And just imho, Arenado is a legit target since StL wants to get rid of him.  It's a matter of how much StL kicks in, and how we add offense at other positions.  Maybe if we acquired Donovan + Arenado for Casas, and signed Alonso for 1st, we'd have a good offense without crippling us salary-wise.

Arenado’s is a step down from Romy Gonzalez in every way except salary.  And Romy dopant be a full time starter.  And with $42mill on the books for the next two years, Arenado becomes an expensive albatross.  
 

Yoshida straight up is the only trade I’d make for Arenado.  And if I thought about it long enough, like say 2 full minutes, I wouldn’t make that deal either…

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to know what STL's thinking is, but I have to think they'd like to get out from under some large contracts, and BTV has 3 players underwater.

Or just for fun, Arenado + Gray + Donovan + $$$ for Jh Gracia and Casas.  How much does StL chip in?  That's $60M in salary relief for three players they are looking to move; almost a complete reset.  The money would have to be compelling, but it would add three players that we need, and leave us the opening for Alonso and then dealing Duran or Abreu for a good SP.

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Arenado’s is a step down from Romy Gonzalez in every way except salary.

Do you think Romy can play 3rd?