Red Sox (Bello) vs Blue Jays (Varland): 9/25/25, 7:07pm

[Brandon Glick]

By virtue of their 4-2 head-to-head record over the Astros this year, the Red Sox's magic number is down to 1! Clinch day!

[moonslav59]

Sox could be in before they even play. HOU plays this afternoon.

It's hard to imagine DET catching fire, when they play us, but stranger things have happened, this year.

I hope we can rest our starters. If HOU loses, today, we can pitch Bello for maybe 50-60 pitches and pull him. No more regular season starts for Crochet or Gio.

Give the scrubs all the innings they can handle. Keep Chapman sharp by pitching him Saturday.

[vegasbob]

Assuming the  26 year old Brayan Bello is healthy after 161 innings of mixed results , it is time for him to step up and  be a winner today, even if Astros lose to A's.  I'm saying Houston will win, so the heat will be on Bello to perform. 

Ready to be proven wrong, but I think Brayan could be immature and unready for pressure and intensity like today and the playoffs could provide .

Realize that today's Dominican, Venezuelan,  have  been the product of baseball academies with no emphasis on education .  Like many of American college football players, they are not well prepared for the prime time, criticism  and potential wealth that comes with their position.

I would love to see Bello throw a 6 inning 1 runner and get the most meaningful win in the last 4-7 years.

But also look at Varland's stats over the last 3 games . Sox hitters have their work carved out too

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox could be in before they even play. HOU plays this afternoon.

It's hard to imagine DET catching fire, when they play us, but stranger things have happened, this year.

I hope we can rest our starters. If HOU loses, today, we can pitch Bello for maybe 50-60 pitches and pull him. No more regular season starts for Crochet or Gio.

Give the scrubs all the innings they can handle. Keep Chapman sharp by pitching him Saturday.

Interesting.  Bello's ERA in September so far is 5.85.  

 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Interesting.  Bello's ERA in September so far is 5.85.  

 

4.05 bb/9 SEPT (Bad Bello)

2.21 bb/9 JUN - AUG (Good Bello)

4.95 bb/9 APR - MAY (Bad Bello)

[mvp 78]

This is Varland's first GS this year. He has an 851 OPS as SP. 

I've read that he's just working as an opener. 

[mvp 78]

Varland then Lauer then? Have not seen anything announced. 

[vegasbob]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This is Varland's first GS this year. He has an 851 OPS as SP. 

I've read that he's just working as an opener. 

Likely accurate, MVP.   It's worth seeing that in a game critical for BJ's to win ALE, they best they can muster is an opener.

In an elimination game, the Astros run out old friend Framber Valdez who throws  "mistakes" at his catcher , and has lost his last 4 starts posting an almost 5 ERA in away games.  Go away , Fraamber

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

Assuming the  26 year old Brayan Bello is healthy after 161 innings of mixed results , it is time for him to step up and  be a winner today, even if Astros lose to A's.  I'm saying Houston will win, so the heat will be on Bello to perform. 

Ready to be proven wrong, but I think Brayan could be immature and unready for pressure and intensity like today and the playoffs could provide .

Realize that today's Dominican, Venezuelan,  have  been the product of baseball academies with no emphasis on education .  Like many of American college football players, they are not well prepared for the prime time, criticism  and potential wealth that comes with their position.

I would love to see Bello throw a 6 inning 1 runner and get the most meaningful win in the last 4-7 years.

But also look at Varland's stats over the last 3 games . Sox hitters have their work carved out too

Quite a leap on grouping Dominicans into this stereotype. 

Papi and Pedro sure help prove your point.... NOT!

[moonslav59]

Over Bello's career, his opponents have a .733 OPS Against.

In certain categories, he seems to do better under pressure:

.709 Men on Base

.677 RISP

.631 RISP w 2 outs

.608 Late & Close and .685 High Leverage

[illinoisredsox]

2 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Likely accurate, MVP.   It's worth seeing that in a game critical for BJ's to win ALE, they best they can muster is an opener.

In an elimination game, the Astros run out old friend Framber Valdez who throws  "mistakes" at his catcher , and has lost his last 4 starts posting an almost 5 ERA in away games.  Go away , Fraamber

It’s not an elimination game for the Astros.  Yes, a loss eliminates them from beating out the Red Sox but they are 1 game behind the Tigers for the final WC slot.  Houston can still claim that spot, although it’s a long shot as they don’t hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers.

[d-money]

Stros up 2-0. Just win tonight and take care of business. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Over their last 5 games, all losses, the Astros have scored 2 runs with a team batting average of ,136. Today they have their hitting shoes on and lead the A's 2-0 after one.

[mvp 78]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Over their last 5 games, all losses, the Astros have scored 14 runs with a team batting average of ,136. Today they have their hitting shoes on and lead the A's 2-0 after one.

Game over. 😭

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Game over. 😭

Error correction.That should have been 2 runs, not 14.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Astros leading 5-0 in the second. Doesn't look like any help from the A's today.

[moonslav59]

Astros up 5-0, now.

[d-money]

5 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Astros leading 5-0 in the second. Doesn't look like any help from the A's today.

win tonight and that’s it. 

[moonslav59]

How about Raleigh hitting #59 and 60, last night? Maybe Judge does not win the MVP.

[Maxbialystock]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Raleigh hitting #59 and 60, last night? Maybe Judge does not win the MVP.

Judge's OPS is 1.136.  Raleigh's is .959.  Judge's WAR is 9.3, Raleigh's 7.2.  

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Judge's OPS is 1.136.  Raleigh's is .959.  Judge's WAR is 9.3, Raleigh's 7.2.  

Looks like a clear win for the catcher.

[moonslav59]

Although schedule are more balanced, now, teams still play more games vs their own division.

Although MIL (NLC) and PHI (NLE) have the best records in MLB, the ALE has the best 2nd place record, the best 3rd place record, the second best 4th place record and the best last place record. That's not easy to do, when you have a .500 record vs each other.

The Sox went 32-19 vs the ALE, 29-30 v the rest of the AL and 26-22 vs the NL.

TOR mopped up on the NL (30-18) and ALW (19-12) but went just 41-38 vs the ALE+ALC.

NYY has a losing record in the ALE and is 40-22 vs the rest of the AL

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Judge's OPS is 1.136.  Raleigh's is .959.  Judge's WAR is 9.3, Raleigh's 7.2.  

I might compare their WARs if they both played outfield. But Cal's defensive position is only the most important of all regulars on the diamond -- and he backstopped a division champion.

[FredLynn]

One more win and the Flips label goes away. I’m sure that’s enough of an incentive for them. 
Bello is due for a good game. 

[d-money]

Here we go. Just get the W plz. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

BREG has been good at talking to his fellow players this season proving talk isn't cheap.

[FredLynn]

Bello getting out of the first is half the battle 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Thanks Vlad 

[d-money]

15 pitches  for bello that inning. 

[FredLynn]

Rafaela Ks without seeing a strike.