The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[mvp 78]

Dobbins - Injured

Crawford - Injured

Sandoval - Injured

Fitts - Injured

Harrison - bad in AAA

Giolito - needs to be re-signed

That's why people have suggested trading for a SP. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Our SP situation begs for relief:

Crochet - Has it all. A true top of the rotation piece who anchors your entire lineup both reg season and playoffs
Bello - Has emerged as a true #2.  Theyve even started letting him go through opposing lineups a third time, something only reserved for a few pitchers. 
Tolle - A stud of a prospect and a 6'6 lefty who dominates every stop.  A must have in your rotation next year
Gio - Will need to be resigned but really has come on as of late.  Looking like a #2 himself who prob slots in as our #4
Dobbinss - A rookie leaving quite the impression before an injury zapped the remainder of his sesaon. But he looks like he can pitch in MLB
Sandoval - A wildcard who last we saw was a #3 , might get squeezed due to all these studs
Criswell - A guy who has come to earn our trust if ever needed for a spot start
K. Crawford - Another forgotten man who should be much higher than way down here.  Dude was a #2 pitcher as recently as 2-3 years ago and now hes our what #8?
7 of our top 10 prospects are SP. One has been previously mentioned.  One is too young and one is prob for the pen. So heres another 4, pitchers 9,10,11,12
Fitts/Weis - not bad for #13,14

Oops forgot Kyle Harrison

Meanwhile, when I sort by OPS+, of the full-timers that are guaranteed to be here for next year - Abreu is second. Duran is third. They are only behind Anthony, who is likely to have a bit of a sophmore slump next year when the league adjusts

So we traded our best hitte this year (devers) and now you want to trade our new by default one of our best hitters because you can foresee us needing 12 pitchers when I just named you 15

Devalue offense much?

We need 2-3 good hitters, Id sign one and trade some of our surplus of arms for one.

Our lineup last night went 
Rookie
Guy who is going to opt out and we could lose
Story (not really a #3 guy and an injury risk, so we're not looking great here)
Journeyman
Journeyman
Career minor leaguer
Catcher 
Noodlebat
Rookie

But tell me how we need to trade offense because you want 5 excellent starers and 7 great ones behind them.

Even if we open the DH slot for an OF'er, we can't play them all. I guess Rafaela at 2B would allow 5 to play. We still have 7 that all deserve to play, either as platoon (Ref, if he returns and maybe Abreu & Duran) or by Cora's insistence (Yoshida.)

LHB: Anthony, Abreu, Duran & Yoshida

RHB: Rafaela (reverse splits), Jh Garcia, Campbell

I'm NOT okay with Rafaela at 2B or SS, unless for a short term emergency, so to me, it's 4 slots for 7 guys. If we rid Cora of the Yoshida choice, this winter, it's still 6 for 4 slots. Maybe Ref retires and we have a manageable 5 for 4 slots, with one being Jh Garcia mostly on the bench in a platoon role. That could be doable, but I also think it's a waste of value putting even our worst defensive OF'er (arguable Duran) at DH near FT or on some sort of rotation/rest basis. Duran's value on another team as an OF'er is way higher than to the Sox as a DH, and that goes even more so with Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela, assuming they DH some games.

All the pitchers you listed are here, this year, and we still have only 3 solid SP'ers, with one likely to become a FA. No way am I pencilling in Sandoval, Dobbins & Crawford into meaningful SP'er roles, until we see they are healthy and back. Dobbins proved nothing. Sandoval and Crawford have promise, as does Dobbins, but neither none are even close to sure bets to take over Gio's #3 slot, and even as 4/5's I wonder. As much as we needed SP'ers, this year, Criswell got one start. He's on your list. You also added Harrison at the last minute, and he has yet to start a game during a time where we used pen games, Criswell for one start and now called up a prospect over him.

I feel very strongly we need two #2/3 type starters- one, if we get Gio to come back.

I'm not saying our offense needs no help or additions, but we will have Anthony for the full season and hopefully Bregman, as well. Much of our everyday roster is pre-prime and nearing prime quickly. I expect more growth than sophomore slumps. We also added Lowe.

Our offense is 8th in OPS and 4th in runs. If we bring back Bregman, we should get better not worse or the same. Our SP'ers are ranked 11th in ERA with Gio being a big part of keeping it top 15. The starters are 11th in fWAR and 7th in ERA-. Our pen is second in fWAR and ERA-.

Without Gio, our rotation is our highest need area.

Without Bregman, our line-up might pass the rotation in higher need.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dobbins - Injured

Crawford - Injured

Sandoval - Injured

Fitts - Injured

Harrison - bad in AAA

Giolito - needs to be re-signed

That's why people have suggested trading for a SP. 

Im not against it, just want to show Moon how he is like we need to trade our outfield. Even maybe 2 because we cant put a prospect there (Garcia), but hes unwilling to put Tolle in his rotation.

[drewski6]

Id trade for a pitcher, just not Abreu or Duran.

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even if we open the DH slot for an OF'er, we can't play them all. I guess Rafaela at 2B would allow 5 to play. We still have 7 that all deserve to play, either as platoon (Ref, if he returns and maybe Abreu & Duran) or by Cora's insistence (Yoshida.)

LHB: Anthony, Abreu, Duran & Yoshida

RHB: Rafaela (reverse splits), Jh Garcia, Campbell

I'm NOT okay with Rafaela at 2B or SS, unless for a short term emergency, so to me, it's 4 slots for 7 guys. If we rid Cora of the Yoshida choice, this winter, it's still 6 for 4 slots. Maybe Ref retires and we have a manageable 5 for 4 slots, with one being Jh Garcia mostly on the bench in a platoon role.

Rebut: So you need to clear a spot for Garcia, but not Tolle?  Also 5 guys for 4 spots doesnt scream problem to me.  I would understand if we didnt have a very strong rotation going into next year.  But I dont see this as a major problem.

That could be doable, but I also think it's a waste of value putting even our worst defensive OF'er (arguable Duran) at DH near FT or on some sort of rotation/rest basis. Duran's value on another team as an OF'er is way higher than to the Sox as a DH, and that goes even more so with Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela, assuming they DH some games.

Rebut: Im not willing to concede that Durans value to another team was higher than ours.  I think he is our leader, and the team went on a run after the trade deadline because they were pumped he didnt go anywhere.  He is a huge part of our fabric. He is our emotional leader. These guys you want in the playoffs.  I think hes our captain, if Im being honest.  He would for sure be if we didnt have a couple of pro's pros in Breg and Story. I would give him (Duran) the "C" tho.

All the pitchers you listed are here, this year, and we still have only 3 solid SP'ers, with one likely to become a FA. No way am I pencilling in Sandoval, Dobbins & Crawford into meaningful SP'er roles, until we see they are healthy and back. Dobbins proved nothing. Sandoval and Crawford have promise, as does Dobbins, but neither none are even close to sure bets to take over Gio's #3 slot, and even as 4/5's I wonder. As much as we needed SP'ers, this year, Criswell got one start. He's on your list. You also added Harrison at the last minute, and he has yet to start a game during a time where we used pen games, Criswell for one start and now called up a prospect over him.

Rebut: I dont disagree, but it seems to me that you are more willing to take a chance on a positional player than you are on #5 starter.  You are willing to give Garcia a spot next year but not Tolle, for example.

I feel very strongly we need two #2/3 type starters- one, if we get Gio to come back.

Rebut: The other (besides Gio) is Tolle. Plus I always liked K.Craw but I think hes prob best suited for a 5/6 spot. But I wouldnt be against your Keller trade (involving Campbell) or getting a free agent.  I just think that with Crochet, Bello, Tolle, likely Gio - the need for a starter doesnt warrant trading either Abreu or Duran. I would trade Cedanne first because I think our lineup needs the oomph that Duran and Abreu provide because its not exactly 1 to 9.  And yes, I am starting to sound like FredLynn

I'm not saying our offense needs no help or additions, but we will have Anthony for the full season and hopefully Bregman, as well. Much of our everyday roster is pre-prime and nearing prime quickly. I expect more growth than sophomore slumps. We also added Lowe.

Rebut: So we assume Bregman is coming back and pencil him when talking about next years lineup but not Gio. This is why I worded my post strongly (apologies).  I want you to see this inconsistency.

Our offense is 8th in OPS and 4th in runs. If we bring back Bregman, we should get better not worse or the same. Our SP'ers are ranked 11th in ERA with Gio being a big part of keeping it top 15. The starters are 11th in fWAR and 7th in ERA-. Our pen is second in fWAR and ERA-.

Rebut: 8th isnt good enough, and Abreu is one of our most consistent sources of power.  And Duran brings the intangibles that I look for in a "postseason" player. The intensity.

Without Gio, our rotation is our highest need area.
Our entire infield is in flux.  Story is always an injury risk, Bregman is likely to opt out, Im not counting on Casas and in addition we have no DH. Plus catcher this is half your lineup. Im not sure Im willing to concede this, but I would hate to lose Gio without an equivalent.  Again, Im mostly against trading Duran or Abreu.

Without Bregman, our line-up might pass the rotation in higher need.

Rebuts within (edit)

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Id trade for a pitcher, just not Abreu or Duran.

I would because the other OFers are Rafaela and Anthony. No reason to carry 4 guys for 3 spots, especially when 3 of them are LHB and 2 have massive split issues. 

They were looking to trade one of the OFers, Masa and Casas last offseason. I think we see a shakeup this offseason. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dobbins - Injured

Crawford - Injured

Sandoval - Injured

Fitts - Injured

Harrison - bad in AAA

Giolito - needs to be re-signed

That's why people have suggested trading for a SP. 

How many times have we counted on injured pitchers to come back and be in form? Many never even comeback when expected. Hardly any comeback close to their old form.

Houck is out until 2027. He was our ace, last year and slotted #2, this year. Bello's ascension has been great and needed, but Giolito leaving would certainly make a solid #2/3 type SP'er the highest need. (Assuming Bregman comes back.)

C: Narvaez & Wong- Check

1B: Lowe, Casas & Campbell -better than we looked FOR THE FIRST 3+ MONTHS OF 2025.

2B: Mayer, DHam, Romy, Grissom (Campbell) - high need area, if Mayer is hurt.

SS: Story, Mayer (Arias?)

3B: Bregman? Mayer, Romero

LF: Anthony, Duran & Campbell/Yoshida

CF: Rafaela, Anthony & Jh Garcia

RF: Abreu, Jh Garcia (Anthony)

DH: Casas, Garcia, Campbell, Romy

That looks sweet, to me. We are deep everywhere but rightside infield. Id be fine with trading for Ryan, nontendering Lowe & signing Alonso, who'd be cheaper than signing Cease.

[moonslav59]

So you need to clear a spot for Garcia, but not Tolle?  Also 5 guys for 4 spots doesnt scream problem to me.  I would understand if we didnt have a very strong rotation going into next year.  But I dont see this as a major problem.

Tolle will have every opportunity to win a rotation slot, this year and next. We could trade for Ryan and Keller and Tolle has an opening, assuming Gio bolts. Plus, even if we brought back Gio and added two solid SP'ers to replace Buehler & May, chances are one will be hurt and Tolle as the #6  could start 30 games in 2026.

[moonslav59]

Im not willing to concede that Durans value to another team was higher than ours.  I think he is our leader, and the team went on a run after the trade deadline because they were pumped he didnt go anywhere.  

My point was about Duran as our DH vs MIN's LF'er. One of our plus defenders in the OF needs to DH for all of them to play.

[moonslav59]

I dont disagree, but it seems to me that you are more willing to take a chance on a positional player than you are on #5 starter.  You are willing to give Garcia a spot next year but not Tolle, for example.

We have a set everyday player list that are mostly "known values." As with many of our pitchers, injuries are a concern and likely, but we are super deep everywhere but 1B, 2B and maybe 3B, unless Mayer can stay healthy.

My "spot" for Garcia was a weakside platoon in RF, currently held by Ref.

Anthony LF/RF/CF and Campbell/garcia

Rafaela CF. Garcia

Abreu-Garcia, Anthony RF

If we trade Abreu. instead, shuffle it up, some and Gracia has a minor "slot."

I am not trading for Ryan to squeeze Tolle out. Tolle can and should win a slot by pitching well.

[moonslav59]

The other (besides Gio) is Tolle. Plus I always liked K.Craw but I think hes prob best suited for a 5/6 spot. But I wouldnt be against your Keller trade (involving Campbell) or getting a free agent.  I just think that with Crochet, Bello, Tolle, likely Gio - the need for a starter doesnt warrant trading either Abreu or Duran. I would trade Cedanne first because I think our lineup needs the oomph that Duran and Abreu provide because its not exactly 1 to 9.  And yes, I am starting to sound like FredLynn

 

I'd be fine with Campbell for Keller & cash with no Ryan trade and no Gio returning, but I'd see that as staying even with 2025, at best, as Keller is not likely to pitch like the '25 Gio in '26.

I have the same faith or less in Crawford, Criswell and others than I had in March. Dobbins stock went up, but he's injured. Houck is gone, and he was my #2 in March.

[moonslav59]

Our entire infield is in flux.  Story is always an injury risk, Bregman is likely to opt out, Im not counting on Casas and in addition we have no DH. Plus catcher this is half your lineup. Im not sure Im willing to concede this, but I would hate to lose Gio without an equivalent.  Again, Im mostly against trading Duran or Abreu.

 

Then, advocate for a trade of Rafaela  (or garcia & Campbell) for an infielder(s).

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I would because the other OFers are Rafaela and Anthony. No reason to carry 4 guys for 3 spots, especially when 3 of them are LHB and 2 have massive split issues. 

They were looking to trade one of the OFers, Masa and Casas last offseason. I think we see a shakeup this offseason. 

It seems obvious to me. It did last season, too and now we feel more confident about Anthony & Rafaela as FT'ers, than last winter.

A deal will be made. 100%. With Campbell looking more liek a LF'er or DH than a 2Bman and Jh Garcia in the mix, both RHBs, maybe trading a LHB is not as clear cut as last winter, but IMO we are NOT trading Anthony or Rafaela. We could trade Campbell, Garcia and Yoshida and get all the other 4 OF'ers playing time via the DH slot, but why waste plus D at DH, when another team values the guy more in the OF? 

I also think a Casas/Romy platon at DH might be a good one. (Lowe at 1B w Romy)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Alonso is a guaranteed 30-40 home run man -- the Red Sox have no one they can say that about.

Most of Boston's best winning weeks this summer were keyed by the longball, but a consistent power threat would boost their status for sure.

We've seen how most of this batting order fares vs. elite pitching, and postseasons often feature showdowns where one or two big swings make the difference in contenders advancing. 

Everyone has the right to bear arms, but the Sox could use a few more grizzlies in their well-regulated militia.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Alonso is a guaranteed 30-40 home run man -- the Red Sox have no one they can say that about.

Most of Boston's best winning weeks this summer were keyed by the longball, but a consistent power threat would boost their status for sure.

We've seen how most of this batting order fares vs. elite pitching, and postseasons often feature showdowns where one or two big swings make the difference in contenders advancing. 

Everyone has the right to bear arms, but the Sox could use a few more grizzlies in their well-regulated militia.

Trading for Ryan, instead of paying $30M/yr for a solid SP'er might allow us to sign a guy  like Alonso.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Dobbins - Injured

Crawford - Injured

Sandoval - Injured

Fitts - Injured

Harrison - bad in AAA

Giolito - needs to be re-signed

That's why people have suggested trading for a SP. 

This is about 2026.  Outside of Houck and maybe Fitts, all those other names will be back.

Harrison just turned 24 and has 188 MLB IP to his name.  He’s been below average but has time to improve.  He will be in the 2026 starting pitcher picture at some point…

 

[notin]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading for Ryan, instead of paying $30M/yr for a solid SP'er might allow us to sign a guy  like Alonso.

The Sox have multiple 1b options already in-house.  While I suspect Lowe will get non-tendered, it’s not my decision.  I’m no fan of Casas, but he isn’t dead yet.  And Campbell is still in the picture.

Instead of Alonso or trading for Ryan, would 31yo Ketel Marte (5 yrs $91mill) left be the smarter target?  THE plus is he’s the best 2b in MLB with a reasonable deal for that honor.  The minus is he’s apparently kind of whiny and seems to have fallen into disfavor with the Diamondbacks…

Duran plus something minor (Jedixson Paez) for Marte and the contract of old friend Eduardo Rodriguez l(2yrs $46mill) works out on BTV..

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

This is about 2026.  Outside of Houck and maybe Fitts, all those other names will be back.

Harrison just turned 24 and has 188 MLB IP to his name.  He’s been below average but has time to improve.  He will be in the 2026 starting pitcher picture at some point…

The list also shows the amount of injuries inflicted upon an MLB rotation. You can't just rely on 5 guys. 

I wouldn't count your chickens on Kyle Harrison being anywhere near the rotation. Traded? Pen? Those two options could be just as likely if not more. 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The list also shows the amount of injuries inflicted upon an MLB rotation. You can't just rely on 5 guys. 

I wouldn't count your chickens on Kyle Harrison being anywhere near the rotation. Traded? Pen? Those two options could be just as likely if not more. 

They will probably use a dozen starters next year, like they do nearly every year.  But they can only have 5 healthy SPs without options on opening day.

If Harrison finds his niche in the bullpen, that’s fine. But I think he gets a chance to start at some point.  Don’t forget that despite already having 188 IP as a starter, he’s only about a year and a half older than Tolle…

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The list also shows the amount of injuries inflicted upon an MLB rotation. You can't just rely on 5 guys. 

I wouldn't count your chickens on Kyle Harrison being anywhere near the rotation. Traded? Pen? Those two options could be just as likely if not more. 

I was surprised and pleased at the depth Brez put together for our 2025 rotation. IMO, it went at least 12 deep, but that included Sandoval who was due back in August, and we all know how those deals work out for the Sox.

Crochet, Houck, Giolito, Bello, Buehler, Crawford

Newcomb, Fitts, Priester, Criswell, Dobbins, Wink/Whitlock

We traded Priester, then traded for Harrison.

We traded newcomb, then traded for D May.

We just called up Tolle, who wasn't even listed in the top 12 to 13 on the winter depth chart.

Now, looking forward: No Houck, Buehler, DMay and Giolito (assuming to mutual option trigger.)

We added Tolle and maybe Early, Perales, Sandlin and someone else.

Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts, Criswell and Wink are all hurt.

One could argue we need two #2s and 2-3 more depth arms.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

They will probably use a dozen starters next year, like they do nearly every year.  But they can only have 5 healthy SPs without options on opening day.

If Harrison finds his niche in the bullpen, that’s fine. But I think he gets a chance to start at some point.  Don’t forget that despite already having 188 IP as a starter, he’s only about a year and a half older than Tolle…

Assuming no Gio, Buehler & D May, our SP'er depth chart for 2026 might look like this:

Crochet

Bello

Sandoval

Tolle

Crawford

Dobbins

Fitts

Harrison

Criswell

Early, Perales, Sandlin, Uberstine, Mullins

(No Houck until 2027)

On paper, this is not as good as the top 12-13 depth chart we had, last fall/winter.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading for Ryan, instead of paying $30M/yr for a solid SP'er might allow us to sign a guy  like Alonso.

I just have a feeling if the Sox wind up close to winning it all this October, that they'll be willing to fork over some Devers' dough to sign another top starting pitcher -- I think they'd prefer that over trading the farm again for one.

The thing is, this front office relies heavily on the odds, and lately, that's about 50-50 that whatever ace stud you ink, he's going to shred his elbow ligaments by Memorial Day.

How do you feel about Framber? WAR shows he's as good as ever, but you'd know how effective he really is because you're closer to the action.

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just have a feeling if the Sox wind up close to winning it all this October, that they'll be willing to fork over some Devers' dough to sign another top starting pitcher -- I think they'd prefer that over trading the farm again for one.

The thing is, this front office relies heavily on the odds, and lately, that's about 50-50 that whatever ace stud you ink, he's going to shred his elbow ligaments by Memorial Day.

How do you feel about Framber? WAR shows he's as good as ever, but you'd know how effective he really is because you're closer to the action.

 

Devers's dough went to Anthony and Crochet. The question is where does the savings from Bregman, Giolito, Chapman, Buehler, Hendriks, Matz, Wilson and Refsnyder go? That's 68M for 5ish guys who have to be re-signed or replaced. 

[moonslav59]

There does not appear to be as much money to spend as many seem to think there is. While we have very few expensive arbs, the extensions kicking in are costly.

$3.8M> $28.2 Crochet

$457K> $16.3M Anthony

That's over $40M.

We also added Hicks ($10.3) and Lowe (last arb $10-12M) We can nontender Lowe, but we are stuck with the Hicks contract.

Then, Duran: $3.75M>$8M or 3rd arb.

Now, Bregman and Chapman need to return or be replaced, in kind- likely at more money. Maybe add $10M AAV for those two, combined. We might be at $60M on just these guys, before we even look at signing anybody.

Losing:

$21.1 Buehler

$19.3 Giolito

$5M Hendriks

$2.3 Wilson

$2.1 Refsnyder

That's not $60M.

[moonslav59]

The 2026 Foundation looks a lot better after the Chapman extension!

Next up: Bregman.

[moonslav59]

SP: Crochet, _____, Bello, Giolito, Tolle

RP: Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, 

C: Narvaez, Wong

DH: Duran, Casas/ Romy

1B: Lowe, Casas/Romy

2B: Mayer, DHam/Romy

SS: Story, Mayer

3B: Bregman, Mayer

LF: Anthony, Duran

CF: Rafaela, Duran

RF: Abreu, Garcia

Adding Alonso and trading for Ryan would be a WS contending team.

[moonslav59]

Is it really a far-fetched idea to sign Alonso, Gio & Bregman, then trade Abreu, Casas, Clarke & Mullins for Joe Ryan?

1. Anthony RF

2. Bregman 3B

3. Duran DH/LF

4. Alonso 1B

5. Story SS

6. Garcia LF/DH & Romy DH (Campbell)

7. Mayer 2B (DHam)

8. Narvaez C (Wong)

9. Rafaela CF

Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Ryan, Tolle, Sandoval

Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Dobbins, Weissert, Bernardino

 

[cp176]

On 8/28/2025 at 6:11 PM, moonslav59 said:

He would need to get hurt, IMO, to not trigger the mutual option. The Sox will not limit his innings for the trigger clause to not happen. I am sure of that. He only need 21 IP in 5 or 6 more starts. 

I guess he could have a couple bad games, where they yank him after 1-3 IP, and then it becomes borderline, but I think the odds are he gets the option in his favor. If we are up 7 games with 10 to go, maybe they skip a start, but do you really want to get him mad?

(He shouldn't get mad, since he gave us nothing and earned $19M in 2024, so he owes us one. We shoulda made the clause 200 or 240 IP over 2 seasons.)

If he is pitching just decently, any move to limit his innings pitch count would be i think about as unethical as it can get.  I hope the Sox would never stoop quite that low.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, cp176 said:

If he is pitching just decently, any move to limit his innings pitch count would be i think about as unethical as it can get.  I hope the Sox would never stoop quite that low.

Agreed, and I went a step further and predicted that they would and will not do that.

[moonslav59]

Here are some players who may be traded, non-tendered or are coming off injuries and may not be ready by opening day:

The injured:

Houck: Out until 2027.

Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts, Criswell & Perales

Winckowski & Guerrero

Mayer & Casas

Trade candidates/non tenders/ salary issues

Yoshida & Hicks

Lowe ($10-12M arb?)

Grissom, Eaton & DHam

Kelly, Moran & Guerrero

OF'er (Abreu or Duran?)

That's a lot of injured, questionable and borderline players on the 40.