Red Sox (Buehler) vs Astros (Brown): 8/13/25, 7:10pm

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

21 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

19 games with 10 or more runs scored can make looking at total runs for the season misleading . Like I posted earlier the Dodgers lead MLB in runs scored and have only had 5 games where they scored 10 or more runs.

Watching as many games as you can will keep you better educated about this team than looking at a bunch of stats. My eye test tells me that this team is weak on timely hitting, weak on not chasing bad pitches, weak on putting the ball in play (too many K's)and having only one starter you feel good about.

This being said I guess we all should be happy (surprised)the Sox are still in the PO hunt.

PS: The Sox BP has been better than expected.

[Soxlover]

No more away games for me!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, Soxlover said:

No more away games for me!

Unfortunately, there's still more away games for the Sox.

[Soxlover]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Cora should allow Romy to play 1st for the remainder of the season.

Agreed, but that pretty much makes Rafaela the FT 2Bman.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

27 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

Agreed, but that pretty much makes Rafaela the FT 2Bman.

No problem. Duran plays an excellent CF.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Watching as many games as you can will keep you better educated about this team than looking at a bunch of stats. My eye test tells me that this team is weak on timely hitting, weak on not chasing bad pitches, weak on putting the ball in play (too many K's)and having only one starter you feel good about.

This being said I guess we all should be happy (surprised)the Sox are still in the PO hunt.

PS: The Sox BP has been better than expected.

It seems that way, but...

.755 season OPS

.766 RISP

.771 Men on Base

But then again...

.705 RISP w 2 outs

.730 High Leverage

.669 Late & Close

Losing 2 series in a row sucks. Outscoring the Astros and Padres in each series does not change anything.

It's timely hitting and spreading out the hits & homers that seems to be the issue with out offense. That's not really a skill set. It's not something you can fix or even trade for.

I'm not sure what can be done. I've suggested some line-up tweaks, but I'm not sure how that addresses these two issues.

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Watching as many games as you can will keep you better educated about this team than looking at a bunch of stats. My eye test tells me that this team is weak on timely hitting, weak on not chasing bad pitches, weak on putting the ball in play (too many K's).

But if you're only watching Sox games and not looking at stats, how do you know how other teams compare in these areas?

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's timely hitting and spreading out the hits & homers that seems to be the issue with out offense. That's not really a skill set. It's not something you can fix or even trade for.

I'm not sure what can be done. I've suggested some line-up tweaks, but I'm not sure how that addresses these two issues.

The biggest uncontrollable issue is the quality of the opposing pitching.  

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But if you're only watching Sox games and not looking at stats, how do you know how other teams compare in these areas?

I do look at stats. For example the stats tell me the Sox lead MLB in errors. My eyes tell me the Sox are strong defensively except for 1st base.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The biggest uncontrollable issue is the quality of the opposing pitching.  

This is true. Good pitching beats all kinds of hitting. However, the Sox hitting philosophy of swing hard in case you hit it does make it easier for the better pitchers in the league to dominate them.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I do look at stats. For example the stats tell me the Sox lead MLB in errors. My eyes tell me the Sox are strong defensively except for 1st base.

OK, but it's the part about our offense not being as good as their stats that's the real issue here.  And I do get what you're saying.  I just think the same principle applies to other teams too.  We always tend to focus on the weaknesses of our own team.

The Astros are a good team.  We went 4-2 against them, all after the trade deadline.  That's good.  

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, Nineintime said:

This team was 63-57 last year at this time 7 games out of first.   This team is positioned to be another 500 or less team like they were a year ago.  There is just no it factor.  Can’t beat good teams on the road or at all for that matter. Not constructed to compete with the big boys.  

They have winning records against the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros, but I guess they don't count.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The biggest uncontrollable issue is the quality of the opposing pitching.  

Agreed, and sometimes you even catch a bad to average pitcher having a great night.

Also, playing certain teams when they are doing well or poorly, have new injuries or just catching them when their 3-4-5 starters are scheduled to pitch.

You figure the randomness evens it all out, but it never can perfectly.

As you know, I live outside Houston, and for some reason, we always play the Astros in August- home and away about a week apart. Every year. It seems it should be mixed up from year to year and H & A series should be more spread out.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They have winning records against the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros, but I guess they don't count.

Sox are very good at home and not great on the road. Going 2-4 on this tough road trip isn't the end of the world. I said at the start of the HOU series that a sweep wouldn't change my mind about this team. The rest of the schedule looks very manageable. The next few series are against some teams they should take care of business against: MIA/BAL/NY/BAL/PIT. They can basically end this pathetic Yankees season next weekend with a 4 game sweep. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are very good at home and not great on the road. Going 2-4 on this tough road trip isn't the end of the world. I said at the start of the HOU series that a sweep wouldn't change my mind about this team. The rest of the schedule looks very manageable. The next few series are against some teams they should take care of business against: MIA/BAL/NY/BAL/PIT. They can basically end this pathetic Yankees season next weekend with a 4 game sweep. 

I think there's plenty of randomness in the home/road splits too.  For whatever reason this year we've been feasting at Fenway like in days of old.  And Pythagoras is perplexed by our 27-34 road record with +17 differential.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think there's plenty of randomness in the home/road splits too.  For whatever reason this year we've been feasting at Fenway like in days of old.  And Pythagoras is perplexed by our 27-34 road record with +17 differential.

The crazy amounts of blowouts skew the Pythagoras win total. I'm not the biggest fan of that model to begin with. I think it needs to have some guardrails built in. 

[Bellhorn04]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The crazy amounts of blowouts skew the Pythagoras win total. I'm not the biggest fan of that model to begin with. I think it needs to have some guardrails built in. 

Yeah, in baseball I think Pythagoras is pretty much wiped out by Random-ass.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, in baseball I think Pythagoras is pretty much wiped out by Random-ass.

Any runs allowed by position players should be taken out of the equation at the very least. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Any runs allowed by position players should be taken out of the equation at the very least. 

That's a pretty small tweak though.

Personally I've never seen any explanation for why Pythagorean record even matters.  Maybe early in the season it might tell you something.

But we've seen teams with big variances sustained over entire seasons, so what does it matter?

 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's a pretty small tweak though.

Personally I've never seen any explanation for why Pythagorean record even matters.  Maybe early in the season it might tell you something.

But we've seen teams with big variances sustained over entire seasons, so what does it matter?

 

Yeah, it's just another thing for us to ruminate on here. Ultimately, it doesn't really have much bearing on whether a team will continue to perform well over the remainder of the season or not. 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

The Red Sox lead the majors with 19 games of 10 runs or more.  The average appears to be 8.5 or so games (I couldn't find a league average but teams tied at #13 have 9 games and teams at 15 have 8).  So that is 10+ games where they scored a lot of garbage time runs and that skews the stats.

And I absolutely believe Romy should always play 1st base, I'm so done with Toro.