8/03. Astros vs Sox. 11:35AM EST

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He has 75 Ks in 401 PAs. Last year, he had 151 in 571 (OVER 26% K Rate.) Yes, he had 45 in his last 169 PAs, when he may have tired, but if he does that again, he'll end up with 120 in 570, which is a big improvement.

I'm not saying we should expect further improvement, but I think we can safely think he may stay near his current K rate, which is under 19%. Last year, he was ranked 22nd out of 129 qualified batters in K rate- now it's 96th out of 158. He's actually in the lower half!

The K:BB went from 151-15 to 75:17. That was one of the worst ratios in MLB history (about 10 to 1) to 4.4 to 1.

The league BB/K is now 0.38. Rafaela is at 0.23, this year (17th worst) WITH ANOTHER 14 players within 0.05 from his mark. Last year he was dead last at 0.10 with only 2 players near him.

Why do you seem to discount the chance of a young player improving on his weakest area?

I believe you already said as much-that he is never going to have much plate discipline. As the season progresses I expect his Ks will increase as he and everyone else gets tired.

We’ll see. 

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No Giolito is

Ryan is much better 

ERA last I checked was 2.83

Gio is about a run higher. Still good-but Ryan is better 

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

We don't even know what Breslow offered or didn't offer. I don't think Duran was the deal breaker for the Twins. 

I know what he offered: not enough 

[Maxbialystock]

4 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I don’t care whether or not any other team picked up a #2 starter. It’s a need THIS team has that wasn’t met. As I wrote there are now half a dozen teams favored to win a pennant ahead of the Flops. Had Breslow done his job that would not be so. ESPN gave the team an “F” for their trade deadline effort. In contrast the Mariners got an A. 
Are you happy with the results at the deadline?

Need, yes.  Necessity, doubtful.  Expensive because it's a seller's market, almost certainly.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

45 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I know what he offered: not enough 

In July it's a seller's market, so the price in players and prospects would be big for a #2 starter.  

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Ryan is much better 

ERA last I checked was 2.83

Gio is about a run higher. Still good-but Ryan is better 

Ok, on that sample size, yes, but...

Since May 17th:

2.81 Giolito

3.11 Ryan

Since June 5th:

2.17 Gio

2.73 Ryan

[Maxbialystock]

52 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Ryan is much better 

ERA last I checked was 2.83

Gio is about a run higher. Still good-but Ryan is better 

Gio is a work in progress.  HIs first start was April 30.  His May ERA was 4.85, June 3.04, and July-August 2.92.  Of those last 6 starts 4 were on the road @ Twins, Phillies, Cubs, and Nationals.  Today's 8 IP and 1 ER were against a Division leader, as were the Cubs and Phillies.  

Same for Bello, whose first start was April 22 and whose May ERA was 4.03.  But it was 2.87 in June and 2.79 in July against the Dodgers, Cubs, Rays, Rockies,, Reds, and Twins--and 39 innings pitched.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ok, on that sample size, yes, but...

Since May 17th:

2.81 Giolito

3.11 Ryan

Since June 5th:

2.17 Gio

2.73 Ryan

You beat me to it.  

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

In July it's a seller's market, so the price in players and prospects would be big for a #2 starter.  

Yup.

How many teams traded for a number 1 or 2?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

I believe you already said as much-that he is never going to have much plate discipline. As the season progresses I expect his Ks will increase as he and everyone else gets tired.

We’ll see. 

He will likely never get to the plus side of plate discipline, but he doesn't have to, especially as the whole league moves towards his end of the spectrum.

I do think he can still improve, but maybe not at this pace (2025>2026.)

[FredLynn]

37 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Need, yes.  Necessity, doubtful.  Expensive because it's a seller's market, almost certainly.  

 

 

 

 

 

One position the Red Sox haven’t really done a good job at developing is pitching. Ryan has two more years of team control. Having a rotation that includes Crochet, Ryan, and Bello as anchors is an excellent start to maintaining a winning team. Of course he would have been expensive but we do have a better chance of developing position players than pitching. I think we have maybe one potential excellent pitching in the pipeline. That’s it. (I don’t keep track of our minor league prospects like others here do).

I think Breslow should have made it happen.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

No Giolito is

Heck, I like Bello too.  We have three excellent starters right now, of whom Crochet is a true ace.  Plus, as moonslav has pointed out, the bullpen has actually been pretty good.

I don't think Buehler has bad stuff, but do think his control stinks.  Criswell looked really good. 

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Heck, I like Bello too.  We have three excellent starters right now, of whom Crochet is a true ace.  Plus, as moonslav has pointed out, the bullpen has actually been pretty good.

I don't think Buehler has bad stuff, but do think his control stinks.  Criswell looked really good. 

Add Ryan and we would likely be set for several years.

How long is Giolito signed for?

We have position players. Pitchers, not so much.

Our bullpen is better than pretty good. Best in the AL. Our defense is also good. Pitching and defense wins rings, generally. Adding Ryan would have put us in very good shape 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

One position the Red Sox haven’t really done a good job at developing is pitching. Ryan has two more years of team control. Having a rotation that includes Crochet, Ryan, and Bello as anchors is an excellent start to maintaining a winning team. Of course he would have been expensive but we do have a better chance of developing position players than pitching. I think we have maybe one potential excellent pitching in the pipeline. That’s it. (I don’t keep track of our minor league prospects like others here do).

I think Breslow should have made it happen.

I agree.

We could have afforded an OF'er and a prospect or two not named Anthony or Tolle.

Even losing an OF'er we'd still have a great OF and plenty of OF depth.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Add Ryan and we would likely be set for several years.

How long is Giolito signed for?

We have position players. Pitchers, not so much.

Our bullpen is better than pretty good. Best in the AL. Our defense is also good. Pitching and defense wins rings, generally. Adding Ryan would have put us in very good shape 

I don't think our D has been good, but on paper, they should be, and DRS likes us.

We are 8th in least ERs allowed but 16th in least runs allowed, just 4 away from 19th.

We all have seen how many runs we allowed by defensive mistakes that were not called errors, too.

I think we make a strong run at Ryan, this off season.

 

[FredLynn]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think our D has been good, but on paper, they should be, and DRS likes us.

We are 8th in least ERs allowed but 16th in least runs allowed, just 4 away from 19th.

We all have seen how many runs we allowed by defensive mistakes that were not called errors, too.

I think we make a strong run at Ryan, this off season.

 

Ryan or the equivalent. I don’t keep track of defensive metrics but with Narvaez, Bregman, Story, and Rafaela we are pretty solid by the eye test. I’m sure there is room for improvement in the other positions. This offseason the team has the prospects and the money to build a very good team if you look at where we are now. Just missing a few pieces. Let’s hope they don’t screw it up.

Im available to help them. I texted Breslow my number.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Ryan or the equivalent. I don’t keep track of defensive metrics but with Narvaez, Bregman, Story, and Rafaela we are pretty solid by the eye test. I’m sure there is room for improvement in the other positions. This offseason the team has the prospects and the money to build a very good team if you look at where we are now. Just missing a few pieces. Let’s hope they don’t screw it up.

Im available to help them. I texted Breslow my number.

I do agree that we have lessened the areas of need on O and D,

Our pitching cannot afford another key injury but looks very nice in some areas and okay in others. The 4 & 5 starter slots are highly questionable, but if we can make the playoffs, their importance drops off sharply.

The offseason should be interesting.

1. Bregman or not. (E Suarez or Mayer are options)

2. Closer (Bring Chapman back or sign another one.)

3. SP (Improving on Buehler & Sandoval's 2025 should not be hard, but I think we need to go big, here- Ryan or maybe Keller is enough.)

4. 1B (Unless Campbell shines down the stretch. I'd be okay with Casass-Romy, if we fill 1-3 well enough.)

5. 2B (Mayer, unless he's needed at 3B. Getting some help might still be a good idea. Romy may be needed at 1B or DH platoon, and DHam's days seem numbered. Grissom?)

3 major areas and 2 moderate ones.

[Bellhorn04]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree.

We could have afforded an OF'er and a prospect or two not named Anthony or Tolle.

Even losing an OF'er we'd still have a great OF and plenty of OF depth.

The way Duran is playing, trading him could have really sucked some life out of the offense.  

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I think there’s an excellent chance that they will implode. If you’ve been a Flops fan for as many years as I have you would know that implosions in the dog days of summer are in their blood. It wouldn’t surprise me for it to happen again.

I've been a Sox fan since the late Sixties myself.

They also have more titles than any other team this century, but it hasn't knocked any of the Doubting Thomas out of you.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Actually, Max did.

Max is the anti-Fred. 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The way Duran is playing, trading him could have really sucked some life out of the offense.  

He's been playing great, for sure, but so have Anthony, Rafaela and Abreu/Refsnyder. If it wasn't for Rafaela's need at 2B, one would be benched, since we know YOSHIDA HAS TO PLAY!

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Max is the anti-Fred. 

He meant it, though. He's said it in non anti-Fred posts, too.

Others seem to think our weaknesses are not bad enough to risk messing with clubhouse morale to try and fix it.

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's been playing great, for sure, but so have Anthony, Rafaela and Abreu/Refsnyder. If it wasn't for Rafaela's need at 2B, one would be benched, since we know YOSHIDA HAS TO PLAY!

In my hypothetical nightmare scenario (I have them too),  Duran gets traded and Rafaela or Abreu get injured. 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I do agree that we have lessened the areas of need on O and D,

Our pitching cannot afford another key injury but looks very nice in some areas and okay in others. The 4 & 5 starter slots are highly questionable, but if we can make the playoffs, their importance drops off sharply.

The offseason should be interesting.

1. Bregman or not. (E Suarez or Mayer are options)

2. Closer (Bring Chapman back or sign another one.)

3. SP (Improving on Buehler & Sandoval's 2025 should not be hard, but I think we need to go big, here- Ryan or maybe Keller is enough.)

4. 1B (Unless Campbell shines down the stretch. I'd be okay with Casass-Romy, if we fill 1-3 well enough.)

5. 2B (Mayer, unless he's needed at 3B. Getting some help might still be a good idea. Romy may be needed at 1B or DH platoon, and DHam's days seem numbered. Grissom?)

3 major areas and 2 moderate ones.

I agree-the offseason will be interesting. But I’m tired of waiting until the offseason. The time to try to compete is now and Breslow again sat on the fence between being buyers and sellers, followed by the usual litany of excuses as to why he didn’t do his job. If this team is as good as many here think it is then why not go all in?

Yet here we are. Hopefully the M&Ms perform.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I agree-the offseason will be interesting. But I’m tired of waiting until the offseason. The time to try to compete is now and Breslow again sat on the fence between being buyers and sellers, followed by the usual litany of excuses as to why he didn’t do his job. If this team is as good as many here think it is then why not go all in?

Because the asking prices were too steep, is the simple answer.  Going all in can backfire for obvious reasons.

Nobody really goes all in.  Even with all the moves that were made, nobody went all in - we know that because Ryan is still with the Twins.

[notin]

20 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I  don’t care whether or not any other team picked up a #2 starter. It’s a need THIS team has that wasn’t met. As I wrote there are now half a dozen teams favored to win a pennant ahead of the Flops. Had Breslow done his job that would not be so. ESPN gave the team an “F” for their trade deadline effort. In contrast the Mariners got an A. 
Are you happy with the results at the deadline?

This is such a copout answer.

Whether or not other teams were able to acquire a “#2” starter is a question about the feasibility of the task. It’s a barometer about the market.   As it was a seller’s market in which closers went for multiple BA Top 100 prospects, it really is worth noting that no top tier starters were traded.

If your answer is the Sox should have done whatever it takes, then we can only assume you would have included Anthony in this deal…

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

This is such a cookout answer.

Whether or not other teams were able to acquire a “#2” starter is a question about the feasibility of the task. It’s a barometer about the market.   As it was a seller’s market in which closers went for multiple BA Top 100 prospects, it really is worth noting that no top tier starters were traded.

If your answer is the Sox should have done whatever it takes, then we can only assume you would have included Anthony in this deal…

No to Anthony. He is off limits. It is Breslow's JOB to get deals done and he didn't do it. According to what I read he didn't even try real hard. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In my hypothetical nightmare scenario (I have them too),  Duran gets traded and Rafaela or Abreu get injured. 

That would suck, but consider this:

We trade Duran and Abreu gets hurt:

LF: Garcia (Yoshida/Refsnyder)

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

Rafaela gets hurt:

LF: Anthony (Yoshida/Refsnyder)

CF: Garcia

RF: Abreu/Refsnyder

I know Jh Garcia is untested, but do you like the above more than this?

We don't trade Duran for Ryan and have this:

Crochet, Giolito, Bello, Sandoval, Harrison (Dobbins & Crawford start season on IL)

not this...

Crochet, Ryan, Giolito, Bello, Sandoval

If one gets hurt, our depth goes one more deep.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

I agree-the offseason will be interesting. But I’m tired of waiting until the offseason. The time to try to compete is now and Breslow again sat on the fence between being buyers and sellers, followed by the usual litany of excuses as to why he didn’t do his job. If this team is as good as many here think it is then why not go all in?

Yet here we are. Hopefully the M&Ms perform.

I don't disagree, but we are doing well, and the deadline is past.

I think trading for someone like Ryan or Keller (or both, if I had my way) will be cheaper in DEC than JUL.

[Bellhorn04]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That would suck, but consider this:

We trade Duran and Abreu gets hurt:

LF: Garcia (Yoshida/Refsnyder)

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

Rafaela gets hurt:

LF: Anthony (Yoshida/Refsnyder)

CF: Garcia

RF: Abreu/Refsnyder

I know Jh Garcia is untested, but do you like the above more than this?

We don't trade Duran for Ryan and have this:

Crochet, Giolito, Bello, Sandoval, Harrison (Dobbins & Crawford start season on IL)

not this...

Crochet, Ryan, Giolito, Bello, Sandoval

If one gets hurt, our depth goes one more deep.

 

This is confusing because I've only been talking about 2025.