Article: Analyzing Red Sox's Pitching Staff Going Forward From 2025 MLB Trade Deadline

[Finley Rogan]

The MLB trade deadline has officially passed and with it, any chance for major moves going forward for the remainder of the season. In effect, the Red Sox are organizationally set until the season ends in the fall. In acquiring pitchers Dustin May and Steven Matz, the Red Sox were a light buyer, emphasis on the "light". Many fans are not content with how Craig Breslow handled the deadline, wishing he acquired even more talent, especially at first base and in the rotation. Regardless, the acquisitions do add two more bodies to an already-crowded pitching staff. Let's go through the guys who will have an impact going forward.

Five-Man Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Walker Buehler, Dustin May

It has been impossible to guess anything related to the Red Sox's pitching personnel this season, but this quintet seems like the five guys if the team sticks with a traditional rotation. Tanner Houck’s injury opened up a new hole, which the team quickly filled at the trade deadline. Enter Dustin May, who will (reportedly) make his debut on Sunday and will likely become a rotation regular. May has an injury riddled past, but he has already surpassed his career high in innings this season (by nearly double). With Richard Fitts sent down, the rotation seems to be quite set for now. Once September hits and the roster expands, the Red Sox may opt for another starter depending on the length Dustin May is giving them. The logical next man up candidates are Kyle Harrison and Fitts.

Clearly, things can change; any of the guys in the rotation could get injured or struggle mightily. That is why getting to September is key for this group. After that, there can suitable depth for a more flexible approach to late-season innings.

Bullpen Sure-Things: Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson, Greg Weissert, Garrett Whitlock, Jordan Hicks, Steven Matz

Fringe Guys: Jorge Alcalá, Chris Murphy, Brennan Bernardino, Cooper Criswell, Luis Guerrero, Nick Burdi, Zach Kelly, Jovani Moran

The Red Sox have had a relatively stable bullpen in recent weeks, but they still await the return of Justin Slaten. The guys in the inner circle of Alex Cora’s trust remain the same, with a new addition brought into the fold in Steven Matz. He will look to replace Brennan Bernardino, who was sent down this week to make room for the former Cardinal. The rest of the mainstays will remain in their roles, as the Red Sox did not acquire any help for the back-end of the bullpen. 

Otherwise, we will continue to see the same stream of guys out of the seventh and eighth spots in the bullpen. Any of the guys in the fringe-tier are candidates for those two spots, and each is as likely as the next. One point of interest going forward is how many high-leverage innings Jordan Hicks will pitch in, as he just returned to a high-leverage role immediately after starting for two years. If one thing is clear, it is that the return of Justin Slaten in the late innings will be a huge boost to an improved Red Sox relief group.

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[dannycater]

Sox 9-1 in last 10 Crochet starts and he threw zeros in 7 IP in the only Sox loss in 10 inn v. Halos on June 24. He is Cy Young but Skubal will probably beat him out. Guy is such a Stopper. He is Tiant, Pedro, Rocket, Schilling...he gets it done.

[Maxbialystock]

Anyone here remember the pricey but very good Sox pitching staff of 2018 with studs like Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Kimbrel, Eovaldi, et al?  

Their team ERA was 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB..

This year's no good, stinking, rotten pitching staff which Breslow refused to get any real help for has a team ERA of 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB.  

The Sox are now play their 4th Division leader in 2+ weeks and are 5-5 (1-2 @ Cubs, 1-2 @ Phillies, 2-1 Dodgers, and 1-0 Astros).  

Meanwhile the local and national sports press--and a bunch of us here on talksox--have said the Sox midseason acquisitions have doomed the Sox to failure.  

Kind of reminds me of the local and national sports press announcing the Sox were dead, dead, dead when they sent Devers to the Giants.  To be honest, I loved Devers as the DH here, but also thought sending him away was necessary.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Anyone here remember the pricey but very good Sox pitching staff of 2018 with studs like Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Kimbrel, Eovaldi, et al?  

Their team ERA was 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB..

This year's no good, stinking, rotten pitching staff which Breslow refused to get any real help for has a team ERA of 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB.  

The Sox are now play their 4th Division leader in 2+ weeks and are 5-5 (1-2 @ Cubs, 1-2 @ Phillies, 2-1 Dodgers, and 1-0 Astros).  

Meanwhile the local and national sports press--and a bunch of us here on talksox--have said the Sox midseason acquisitions have doomed the Sox to failure.  

Good pitching staff comparisons for '18 and '25. Hopefully, Matz will be this year's Eovaldi, and May will have a week in October like Price did. Maybe even Harrison will find it by then.

Bad generalization on deadline reactions, though -- no one said Matz and May doom the Sox to failure. But a lot have said they expected Boston to get more reinforcements and pay for more talent... only because the CBO and President told us they would.

[moonslav59]

I think I'd rather give Criswell another start or two over May, but I doubt that happens. Criswell does much better starting than in the pen. He was one of our top 3-4 SP'ers, last year in many categories.

Out of our 5 SP'ers in 2024 with 85+ IP, here is how Criswell did:

2nd in ERA (3.49) to Houck (70 points higher than #3 Pivetta at 4.19.)

2nd in ERA- at 83 (Pivetta was 100, Crawford 104 & Bello 107)

3rd in HR/9 (1.06, just 0.01 from Bello at #2)

T4th in OPS Against (.726 w Pivetta and just .002 from Bello and .024 from Crawford)

4th in FIP (4.21, just .02 from Bello & .06 from Pivetta)

4th in WHIP (1.235)

[Nick]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think I'd rather give Criswell another start or two over May, but I doubt that happens. Criswell does much better starting than in the pen. He was one of our top 3-4 SP'ers, last year in many categories.

Out of our 5 SP'ers in 2024 with 85+ IP, here is how Criswell did:

2nd in ERA (3.49) to Houck (70 points higher than #3 Pivetta at 4.19.)

2nd in ERA- at 83 (Pivetta was 100, Crawford 104 & Bello 107)

3rd in HR/9 (1.06, just 0.01 from Bello at #2)

T4th in OPS Against (.726 w Pivetta and just .002 from Bello and .024 from Crawford)

4th in FIP (4.21, just .02 from Bello & .06 from Pivetta)

4th in WHIP (1.235)

Surprise that our super duper analytical staff didn't see that.......

So is this what you see? (by controlled years starting in 2026)

1 Crochet-6

2 Bello-5

3 Dobbins-5

4 Fitts-5

5 Criswell-4

6 Harrison-4

7 Kutter-3

8 Houck-2

9 Sandoval-1

10 Tolle 6+ (#1 prospect)

11 Perales 6+ (#3 prospect)

12 Witherspoon (#4 prospect)

13 Clarke (#6 prospect)

14 Early (#8 prospect)

15 Sandlin (#9 prospect)

 

 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Nick said:

Surprise that our super duper analytical staff didn't see that.......

So is this what you see? (by controlled years starting in 2026)

1 Crochet-6

2 Bello-5

3 Dobbins-5

4 Fitts-5

5 Criswell-4

6 Harrison-4

7 Kutter-3

8 Houck-2

9 Sandoval-1

10 Tolle 6+ (#1 prospect)

11 Perales 6+ (#3 prospect)

12 Witherspoon (#4 prospect)

13 Clarke (#6 prospect)

14 Early (#8 prospect)

15 Sandlin (#9 prospect)

All of these guys listed could see a MLB GS in 2026. That's pretty impressive rotation depth.

Add Giolito, since I doubt he reaches 140 IP for 2025, which would make the 2026 option mutual. He'd need 66.1 IP over his possible 10 more GS. Maybe Wink might be a SP in '26.

It's hard to know if Crawford & Sandoval will be ready on opening day, and Houck is a total mystery, but all 3 have legit claims to a rotation slot. I'd slot a 100% healthy staff like this:

1. Crochet

2. Giolito

3. Bello

4. Houck (making an assumption, here)/ Tolle, if he's ready.

5. Dobbins (also on the IL)

6. Sandoval (same here)

7. Crawford (once again)

8. Harrison

9. Fitts

10. Tolle (by May or June)

11. Perales (by July)

12. Criswell

13. Sandlin (more ML ready than the two draftees, IMO)

T14. Witherspoon, Clarke and Early

The pen list is longer, even without including converted SP options. It's not as high quality, though, especially w/o Chapman & Wilson.

[ocaladick]

Seems like nobody mentioned Hicks when talking about pitching. That's good - lets send him to the minors to learn how to throw a strike instead of a game and then forget him.  Why is he in the bigs?