Analyzing Red Sox's Pitching Staff Going Forward From 2025 MLB Trade Deadline

Anyone here remember the pricey but very good Sox pitching staff of 2018 with studs like Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Kimbrel, Eovaldi, et al?  

Their team ERA was 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB..

This year's no good, stinking, rotten pitching staff which Breslow refused to get any real help for has a team ERA of 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB.  

The Sox are now play their 4th Division leader in 2+ weeks and are 5-5 (1-2 @ Cubs, 1-2 @ Phillies, 2-1 Dodgers, and 1-0 Astros).  

Meanwhile the local and national sports press--and a bunch of us here on talksox--have said the Sox midseason acquisitions have doomed the Sox to failure.  

Kind of reminds me of the local and national sports press announcing the Sox were dead, dead, dead when they sent Devers to the Giants.  To be honest, I loved Devers as the DH here, but also thought sending him away was necessary.  

39 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Anyone here remember the pricey but very good Sox pitching staff of 2018 with studs like Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Kimbrel, Eovaldi, et al?  

Their team ERA was 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB..

This year's no good, stinking, rotten pitching staff which Breslow refused to get any real help for has a team ERA of 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB.  

The Sox are now play their 4th Division leader in 2+ weeks and are 5-5 (1-2 @ Cubs, 1-2 @ Phillies, 2-1 Dodgers, and 1-0 Astros).  

Meanwhile the local and national sports press--and a bunch of us here on talksox--have said the Sox midseason acquisitions have doomed the Sox to failure.  

Good pitching staff comparisons for '18 and '25. Hopefully, Matz will be this year's Eovaldi, and May will have a week in October like Price did. Maybe even Harrison will find it by then.

Bad generalization on deadline reactions, though -- no one said Matz and May doom the Sox to failure. But a lot have said they expected Boston to get more reinforcements and pay for more talent... only because the CBO and President told us they would.

I think I'd rather give Criswell another start or two over May, but I doubt that happens. Criswell does much better starting than in the pen. He was one of our top 3-4 SP'ers, last year in many categories.

Out of our 5 SP'ers in 2024 with 85+ IP, here is how Criswell did:

2nd in ERA (3.49) to Houck (70 points higher than #3 Pivetta at 4.19.)

2nd in ERA- at 83 (Pivetta was 100, Crawford 104 & Bello 107)

3rd in HR/9 (1.06, just 0.01 from Bello at #2)

T4th in OPS Against (.726 w Pivetta and just .002 from Bello and .024 from Crawford)

4th in FIP (4.21, just .02 from Bello & .06 from Pivetta)

4th in WHIP (1.235)

21 minutes ago, Nick said:

Surprise that our super duper analytical staff didn't see that.......

So is this what you see? (by controlled years starting in 2026)

1 Crochet-6

2 Bello-5

3 Dobbins-5

4 Fitts-5

5 Criswell-4

6 Harrison-4

7 Kutter-3

8 Houck-2

9 Sandoval-1

10 Tolle 6+ (#1 prospect)

11 Perales 6+ (#3 prospect)

12 Witherspoon (#4 prospect)

13 Clarke (#6 prospect)

14 Early (#8 prospect)

15 Sandlin (#9 prospect)

All of these guys listed could see a MLB GS in 2026. That's pretty impressive rotation depth.

Add Giolito, since I doubt he reaches 140 IP for 2025, which would make the 2026 option mutual. He'd need 66.1 IP over his possible 10 more GS. Maybe Wink might be a SP in '26.

It's hard to know if Crawford & Sandoval will be ready on opening day, and Houck is a total mystery, but all 3 have legit claims to a rotation slot. I'd slot a 100% healthy staff like this:

1. Crochet

2. Giolito

3. Bello

4. Houck (making an assumption, here)/ Tolle, if he's ready.

5. Dobbins (also on the IL)

6. Sandoval (same here)

7. Crawford (once again)

8. Harrison

9. Fitts

10. Tolle (by May or June)

11. Perales (by July)

12. Criswell

13. Sandlin (more ML ready than the two draftees, IMO)

T14. Witherspoon, Clarke and Early

The pen list is longer, even without including converted SP options. It's not as high quality, though, especially w/o Chapman & Wilson.