Article: Dustin May Isn't the Starter Red Sox Fans Wanted, but He Isn't the Worst Starter They Could Have Gotten

[Nick John]

The trade deadline has come and gone as the Red Sox only made two moves in an attempt to help improve their roster. Acquiring Steven Matz of the St. Louis Cardinals and Dustin May of the Los Angeles Dodgers, it seems they planned to beef up their pitching. And while it wasn’t the deadline many were hoping for, there may be a silver lining when it comes to Dustin May.

May, a former top prospect of the Dodgers and a talented, yet oft-injured pitcher, was the only rotation help that arrived at the deadline. Just 27 years old, May hasn’t reached his prime just yet. but injuries have left him with limited time on the field as he missed most of 2021 from requiring Tommy John surgery and then pitched in six games in 2022 after rehabbing only to have his season end on September 24 due to lower back tightness.

The 2023 campaign was more of the same, needing a Tommy John revision surgery in early July after being on the injured list since mid-May. He would only make nine starts that season and go on to miss the entire 2024 season due to injury rehab and then later needing surgery for an esophageal tear.

The 2025 season has seen May at his healthiest since 2020, and he has pitched to mixed results. In 19 appearances, May has gone 6-7 with a 4.85 ERA in 104 innings pitched. In that span, he’s walked 43 batters for a 9.5% walk rate and has struck out 97 batters for a 21.5% strikeout rate. May has not been a big-time strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout per nine innings of 8.39 on the season. Despite that number looking rather pedestrian, it is actually considered to be above average. In fact, it would actually be the second-highest out of all Red Sox starters, just behind Garrett Crochet. Compared to the rest of the American League, it would also place him just behind Max Fried’s 8.40 mark.

Looking at his walks per nine innings, May would immediately be the second-worst out of all starters on the staff with a 3.72. The only starter he would be better than would be Walker Buehler. However, despite having a high walk rate, opponents hitting .243 against him and a WHIP of 1.35, May has managed to strand runners at a 70.1% rate.

This has been, in part, due to May’s ability to get ground balls while needed. On the season. May has gotten opposing batters to hit the ball on the ground 43.8% of the time, which is unfortunately a career-worst for the pitcher, but a promising floor for such an important metric. On the opposite end, he’s allowing fly balls at a career-high 37.8% rate and has given up 16 home runs on the season. In his previous five seasons pitching combined, he had only given up 19 home runs. One thing is for certain with May: he will need to get the ball more on the ground at Fenway than he did pitching with the Dodgers, especially as he’s allowing a hard-hit rate of 35% and an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph. Batters have hit him hard when they make contact.

One positive to build off of for May is his four-seam fastball, as batters are hitting just .111/.168/.206 against it on the season. While Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey seems to like movement more than straight gas, May might benefit from relying more on a four-seamer that averages around 95.5 mph. It has also been his second-best pitch in terms of generating whiffs, with opposing batters whiffing at a 26.2% rate against the offering, so an increase in its usage could result in more swings and misses in his game. One pitcher who has seen an improvement this season when relying more on his fastball is May’s new teammate Brayan Bello, who has looked like a different pitcher after honing in on his fastball usage. Plus, another similarity between the two is the two pitchers rely on similar pitches, as two of Bello's top three most-used pitches are his sinker and sweeper, just like May.

The other three pitches in May’s arsenal this year are his cutter, sinker and sweeper (though FanGraphs has it listed as a slider). May dropped his curveball and changeup rates this season and altered his pitch usage. The sweeper is his main pitch now, being tossed 41.1% of the time, while his sinker has been his second-most used pitch at 36.1%. The four-seam fastball has been used 16.1%, and finally the cutter has been tossed just 6.7% of the time, a downgrade from the 14.8% usage it saw in 2023. That may be for the best, as his cutter has been his worst pitch this season, opponents hitting .520/.406/.840 against it. In the same vein, May has also seen trouble with his sinker, as opponents have a slash line of .285/.347/.589 to go along with 10 of May’s 16 home runs allowed being from the sinker. That's not to say either pitch is a lost cause, but if the Red Sox would like to streamline his effectiveness for the season's second half, they could encourage May to deploy a heavier fastball-sweeper mix.

May is very much a rental starter, expected to fill in the back-end of the rotation from now until the end of the season in a better manner than Richard Fitts or Walker Buehler has done so far. Likely to slot in as the team’s number four pitcher, May will just be expected to go out there and provide five or six competitive innings as the team looks to make the playoffs. It isn’t a bad upgrade to the rotation, but when it’s the only upgrade, it can look bad. Had the Red Sox acquired a second starting pitcher to go along with him, fans may have looked at this move in a better light. And, if he can improve his sinker even slightly, there’s a chance the Red Sox might have got an exciting young pitcher they could attempt to re-sign for cheap. If it doesn’t work out, then they can let him walk in the offseason.

Should the Red Sox tap into the potential and skill that had him renowned as a top prospect before injuries, this trade could age extremely well. If not... well, let's hope James Tibbs gets crowded out of a busy Dodgers' roster, too.

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[Sawxfan]

Dustin May may not be the worst starter the Red Sox could have gotten, but he is pretty darn close! Aside from his extremely alarming 7.02era away from Dodger Stadium, he ranks in the bottom 25% of all pitchers in expected batting avg, hard hit %, he also ranks in the bottom 17% in expected ERA, fastball run value, avg exit velo, chase %, and whiff %. So to sum it up, he can't fool hitters, he can't miss bats, he is getting barreled up way too often, and he is giving up too much hard contact which is leading to far too many runs. This is not exactly the recipe for a quality starting pitcher to lean on down the stretch!

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Sawxfan said:

Dustin May may not be the worst starter the Red Sox could have gotten, but he is pretty darn close! Aside from his extremely alarming 7.02era away from Dodger Stadium, he ranks in the bottom 25% of all pitchers in expected batting avg, hard hit %, he also ranks in the bottom 17% in expected ERA, fastball run value, avg exit velo, chase %, and whiff %. So to sum it up, he can't fool hitters, he can't miss bats, he is getting barreled up way too often, and he is giving up too much hard contact which is leading to far too many runs. This is not exactly the recipe for a quality starting pitcher to lean on down the stretch!

Velocity has been creeping back up the last few starts.  Away home splits? Wanna use those, well his expected HR% would have been the lowest at Fenway.

offspeed stuff is still decent, velo is returning, with some reasonable projection he’s probably a huge upgrade over Buehler right now.

[Sawxfan]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Velocity has been creeping back up the last few starts.  Away home splits? Wanna use those, well his expected HR% would have been the lowest at Fenway.

offspeed stuff is still decent, velo is returning, with some reasonable projection he’s probably a huge upgrade over Buehler right now.

I am probably a huge upgrade over Buehler right now, so that isn't saying much.

[Hugh2]

33 minutes ago, Sawxfan said:

I am probably a huge upgrade over Buehler right now, so that isn't saying much.

Taking a guy who is one of the worse starters in baseball this season and replacing him with a serviceable starter is saying a whole lot.  
 

it’s not the guy behind Crochet I wanted but it’s certainly an upgrade to the rotation.  Or bullpen.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Dustin May is a gamble.  He's a calculated risk.  I think it was an excellent use of resources.  Breslow spent next to nothing on a player who was trending upward at age 25 before hurting his arm.  He comes back and has a freak accident that was life threatening and survives it but it costs him recovery time.  Now in 2025 he starts like most TJ surgery pitchers with unusually bad control.  As the season progresses his consistency is crap as he tries to find his way back to his 2023 performance level, 2.63 ERA, 0.938 WHIP and 5.4 H/9.  The last number is key because it shows dominance as a pitcher.  The three seasons prior to his arm injury in 2023 he put up 6.3, 6.3 and 5.4 H/9 numbers.  His dominance as a pitcher was trending up and his ERA showed his run prevention was improving.  These are all great signs for his future, then his injury derailed him. 

The big question is can he come back to form.  Why not pick him up and have him work with Breslow's pitching coaches to see if they can get him back on track over the last few months of the season.  If not, he did not cost much.  If they can, he could be a SP2 rather than a SP3 or SP4.  Lots of upside and worst case, 3 months of downside at a small price.

It's not a flashy solution but it may be a surprising solution going forward.  An excellent pitcher at next to no cost.  Let's hope the coaching staff can get him back to an ERA+ of 165, a sub 3.00 ERA and continue to lower his WHIP from the 2025 1.13.  

It wasn't a home run trading for Dustin May but it was a very solid gamble that could pay off very well in the future.

[Duran Is The Man]

i don't subscribe to BTV but i saw somewhere that the Sox MASSIVELY overpaid for the oft-injured May. maybe someone can post the numbers.

[jad]

So that's where the bar is set now?  "Not the worst ..."

[moonslav59]

Just one good start by Criswell is enough for me to put him above May & Buehler. That's how badly I view our 4-5 slots, right now.

I have way more faith in Buehler than May. Don't ask me why.