Article: What are the Red Sox's Prospects Actually Worth?

[Nick John]

The MLB trade deadline is today! The Red Sox appear to be in the middle of most rumors as they attempt to acquire talent that will help get them back into the playoffs for the first time since 2021. With a loaded farm system, they have plenty of pieces to move, but realistically, what might each of their top prospects be worth? We’ll be looking at three prospects who could be shipped out by the end of the trade deadline and what similar players were able to get back in a trade.

For the sake of simplicity, I will being using the MLB Pipeline rankings when it comes to the prospects discussed.

Jhostynxon Garcia, OF, Red Sox #2 Prospect

Why He Should be Traded
Garcia is a talented young outfielder who is blocked from playing in Boston. He’s a Top-100 prospect on MLB Pipeline and with the Red Sox outfield being set for presumably the next half-decade, there’s no reason to not make him available in the right trade. 2024 was a bit of a coming out party for Garcia as he played well at three different stops in the minor leagues, to the point he was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. 2025 has been more of the same, as he’s shown he’s capable of handling Triple-A pitching just fine. The only issue is there’s no room for him in Boston. It would only make sense to move someone of his caliber while his value is at its (likely) highest. As they say, “You have to give something to get something,” and well, Garcia might be the best piece they could give up in a trade, depending on who you ask.

Recent Trade Comparison: Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javier Báez and Trevor Williams (2021)
In no way am I saying Garcia is going to be the next Armstrong, but the two players are similar when it comes to their prospect rankings near the deadline. Armstrong was the Mets’ fifth-ranked prospect in 2021 and wasn’t even a Top-100 prospect at the time of the trade (though that was due to a serious injury). Garcia himself is a fringe Top-100 prospect (MLB Pipeline has him as one, but other prospect lists don’t). The Mets were able to turn their fifth-best prospect in 2021 into a two-time All-Star who, at the time, had 22 home runs, and a pitcher in Williams who gave them 32 1/3 innings of 3.06 ERA baseball between the bullpen and rotation. A power-hitting bat and a steady relief arm are two things the Red Sox currently need, and if Garcia could deliver them all by himself, it would be a fair trade.

Mikey Romero, SS, Red Sox #8 Prospect

Why He Should be Traded
Romero was drafted back in 2022 and was viewed as one of the best hitters in that draft’s high school class, and he’s shown it when healthy. The problem is his health, as he’s missed time in every season of his professional career due to various injuries. This year, he’s currently on pace to play the most games in his career while also improving his walk rate. This is a situation where a player's talent is being held back by availability. If you can move him in a deal while his value is rather high (he’s in Boston’s top 10) and improve the major league roster, you must do it. There’s no guarantee his body will hold up. Add to it that the infield at the major league level is packed for the time being, and Romero may not see a chance to reach the majors here.

Recent Trade Comparison: Nick Yorke traded for Quinn Priester (2024)
We don’t need to look far to see a trade that could fit something similar for Romero. Nick Yorke was Boston’s sixth-ranked prospect last year but had no path to the majors. He had put up a decent season in 2024 up to the trade deadline and the Red Sox, not wanting to risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft, decided to move him. In the deal, they got a former first-round pick back in Quinn Priester, someone who had previously been a Top-100 prospect but had struggled in the majors with Pittsburgh. The Red Sox acquired him with the thought of retooling his pitch selection and having him be starting pitching depth for the remainder of the 2024 season. The only difference here is that that Yorke had played more games than Romero, and he had a better offensive campaign up to the trade deadline last season.

James Tibbs III, OF, Red Sox #5 Prospect

Why He Should be Traded
Tibbs, being one of the main returning pieces for Rafael Devers, makes it odd to think that the Sox only acquired him to trade him. Well, much like Garcia. he has no path to the majors in Boston. as he’s expected to be limited defensively to left field and possibly first base. Because of that, it would make sense for Boston to move him before he loses value. A first-round pick last season, he was viewed as having one of the best combinations of swing decisions and hard contact in the draft. Since coming to the Red Sox organization, he hasn’t been as good, putting up only a .609 OPS in 28 games. The Red Sox would be wise to move him in a deal, even if he's unlikely to be the centerpiece in a blockbuster. Tibbs is still full of potential, and it’s likely that another team would love to add him to their system and tap into that potential.

Recent Trade Comparison: Greg Deichmann and Daniel Palencia traded for Andrew Chafin 2021
While the trade was a two-for-one, the main piece was Deichmann, who was the A’s ninth-ranked prospect in 2021 and was having a better offensive season than Tibbs has had with Portland so far. The A’s were able to get, at the time, a valuable left-handed pitcher who had been working as a set-up man in Chicago. Of course, Palencia was a fireballer who has turned into a star closer for the Cubs, highlighting the risk of trading prospects in deals like these.

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[Hitch]

Hard to argue with any of this, but if they're thinking of moving Duran (or Abreu) in the off season, you hold onto The Password for now. Let Refsnyder walk away, and have him as your 4th outfielder/DH.

[mvp 78]

Giving up two OFers would be quite the move for sure. I guess you'd be then throwing Campbell to LF? 

[Nick John]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Giving up two OFers would be quite the move for sure. I guess you'd be then throwing Campbell to LF? 

Outfield is locked for the next half decade with Anthony, Rafaela and Abrue. Not to mention who knows what happens with Duran. By the time you need to worry about the outfield again you'll have younger guys making their way through the system again. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Nick John said:

Outfield is locked for the next half decade with Anthony, Rafaela and Abrue. Not to mention who knows what happens with Duran. By the time you need to worry about the outfield again you'll have younger guys making their way through the system again. 

You'd think OF would be locked in, but Rafaela is a 2b apparently. 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You'd think OF would be locked in, but Rafaela is a 2b apparently. 

That's just a needs must right now. 

[moonslav59]

I'd keep Jh Garcia.

I'd trade Romero or Arias- not  both.

I'd trade Tibbs or Bleis- maybe both.

I'd include pitchers like Early, Sandlin, Uberstine, Mullins, Paez, Wehunt & Monegro is deals that bring back a controlled pitcher.

I'd consider trading K Campbell over Jh Garcia, because I think he'd bring back a much better controlled pitcher. A Campbell, Romero & Sandlin trade sounds like the best I'd give up to get a very nice SP'er with 3+ years of control or a much better one with 1-2 years of control with hopes of extending.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, Nick John said:

Outfield is locked for the next half decade with Anthony, Rafaela and Abrue. Not to mention who knows what happens with Duran. By the time you need to worry about the outfield again you'll have younger guys making their way through the system again. 

Nick, completely disagree on one outfielder.  Abreu is a platoon player who should be the first guy traded to solve multiple problems he causes.

1 - He CAN'T hit LH pitchers.  Fans can argue this season he's not as bad in the past, but the sample size is far too small compared to his career where he is hitting under .200!!  Remember, with his slightly higher average this season his career number is STILL below .200.  That's very bad.  He's a late inning pinch hitter at best who only shows well on defense when he's against the very weak competition in RF in the AL.  Otherwise, he has no shot at a GG.

2 - To be fair, his GG is a joke.  He finished behind both Duran and Rafaela in 2024 in defensive metrics but won a GG because his biggest competition was Soto who is a very average outfielder defensively.  Put Rafaela in RF instead and he probably wins Platinum Gloves for the next decade.

3 - Team defense is important and to maximize outfield defense Duran needs to play CF, Rafaela needs to play RF the most difficult field for 81 of his games and Anthony needs to be the next great LFer after Ted, Yaz and Rice.

4 - By carrying Abreu on the roster, you also have to carry Refsnyder for the 40% of the games when LH starters face BOS.  That's a huge waste of a roster slot.  There is no room for a platoon hitter when you only get 13 hitting slots on the roster.  9 starters and 4 reserves at Catcher, Middle infielder, Corner infielder and Outfield.

5 - The only way to salvage Abreu and his streaky home run hitting talent is to use Refsnyder and Abreu as the DH and 4th outfielder.  That eliminates the $18Million a year Yoshida who is a better all around DH than Abreu since he hits both LH and RH pitchers.

In the end, Abreu has less talent than Duran, Rafaela and Anthony and they should be the starting outfield.  Abreu swings for the fences all the time like a young Devers but with far less ability to consistently hit for average and his hot streaks and cold streaks are frequent while only facing RH pitchers.  His .212 average in May and his .222 average in July offset his .295 average in April and his .271 average in June.  He is a model of inconsistency.  He's grossly over-rated by fans, the media and especially by Cora.  Unfortunately, people around baseball see him for what he is and that's why in comparison to Duran, he has next to no value as he should.

Trading Devers was addition through subtraction and Abreu being traded would be the same thing, addition through subtraction.  The future outfield would be set with Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  Yoshida cand finally get time to prove his worth as a DH.  Campbell can return to play 1B while Mayer returns to play 2B, Story SS and Bregman 3B. 

The only hole right now is at catcher because nothing in Narvaez' past performance suggests he can maintain his hot start to the season.  He's a back-up catcher at best as the Yankees realized.  It's great that he's had a career year like Wong did last year but that doesn't change the fact that his past performance like Wong's is below league average at the MLB level and at the MiLB level.  Teel was our answer for the future and now we need a new one.  Narvaez has the skills to be the future back-up catcher.

 

[moonslav59]

Abreu's career numbers vs LHPs before 2025 is too small to know much, as well, especially when you consider it was his first 77 PAs in the bigs. That sample size is not much bigger than 2025's, alone.

.627 in 49 PAs in 2025.

.514 in 77 PAs from 2023-2034.

BTW... Duran is...

.572 in 2025 in 156 PAs- a sample size bigger than Abreu's career Sample size!

,680 from '23-'24 in 279 PAs- a sample size big enough to judge.

2024-2025

.627 Duran in 386 PAs

.572 Abreu in 116 PAs.

Oh, and by the way, Duran's first years in the bigs vs LHPs:

.438 in 84 PAs in '21

.449 in 42 PAs in '22

That's about the same sample size as Abreu's career, and Duran was given a chance to bat more vs LHPs, eventually.

.

 

[sk7326]

9 hours ago, Nick John said:

Outfield is locked for the next half decade with Anthony, Rafaela and Abrue. Not to mention who knows what happens with Duran. By the time you need to worry about the outfield again you'll have younger guys making their way through the system again. 

I don't think this at all.  Abreu is near the top of the guys the Sox would trade for a premium return.  So is Duran.  Anthony in a corner is safe.  Rafaela is PROBABLY safe.  He makes very little money and - if he did not improve another lick at the plate - would be a top 5 CF overall in the game.  Garcia could easily supplant Abreu in the Sox pecking order given his ability in RF and the strides HE has made at the plate.

[sk7326]

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Nick, completely disagree on one outfielder.  Abreu is a platoon player who should be the first guy traded to solve multiple problems he causes.

1 - He CAN'T hit LH pitchers.  Fans can argue this season he's not as bad in the past, but the sample size is far too small compared to his career where he is hitting under .200!!  Remember, with his slightly higher average this season his career number is STILL below .200.  That's very bad.  He's a late inning pinch hitter at best who only shows well on defense when he's against the very weak competition in RF in the AL.  Otherwise, he has no shot at a GG.

2 - To be fair, his GG is a joke.  He finished behind both Duran and Rafaela in 2024 in defensive metrics but won a GG because his biggest competition was Soto who is a very average outfielder defensively.  Put Rafaela in RF instead and he probably wins Platinum Gloves for the next decade.

3 - Team defense is important and to maximize outfield defense Duran needs to play CF, Rafaela needs to play RF the most difficult field for 81 of his games and Anthony needs to be the next great LFer after Ted, Yaz and Rice.

4 - By carrying Abreu on the roster, you also have to carry Refsnyder for the 40% of the games when LH starters face BOS.  That's a huge waste of a roster slot.  There is no room for a platoon hitter when you only get 13 hitting slots on the roster.  9 starters and 4 reserves at Catcher, Middle infielder, Corner infielder and Outfield.

5 - The only way to salvage Abreu and his streaky home run hitting talent is to use Refsnyder and Abreu as the DH and 4th outfielder.  That eliminates the $18Million a year Yoshida who is a better all around DH than Abreu since he hits both LH and RH pitchers.

In the end, Abreu has less talent than Duran, Rafaela and Anthony and they should be the starting outfield.  Abreu swings for the fences all the time like a young Devers but with far less ability to consistently hit for average and his hot streaks and cold streaks are frequent while only facing RH pitchers.  His .212 average in May and his .222 average in July offset his .295 average in April and his .271 average in June.  He is a model of inconsistency.  He's grossly over-rated by fans, the media and especially by Cora.  Unfortunately, people around baseball see him for what he is and that's why in comparison to Duran, he has next to no value as he should.

Trading Devers was addition through subtraction and Abreu being traded would be the same thing, addition through subtraction.  The future outfield would be set with Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  Yoshida cand finally get time to prove his worth as a DH.  Campbell can return to play 1B while Mayer returns to play 2B, Story SS and Bregman 3B. 

The only hole right now is at catcher because nothing in Narvaez' past performance suggests he can maintain his hot start to the season.  He's a back-up catcher at best as the Yankees realized.  It's great that he's had a career year like Wong did last year but that doesn't change the fact that his past performance like Wong's is below league average at the MLB level and at the MiLB level.  Teel was our answer for the future and now we need a new one.  Narvaez has the skills to be the future back-up catcher.

 

Abreu led the AL in multiple defensive metrics in RF last year.  He is a flawed player, but he is a strong plus at RF.  He leads in the AL this year.  

The tricky thing with Duran is that he was good in CF last season, but it is also the only season he has had in the bigs where he has been above average anywhere.  It is quite possible that 2024 was the outlier.