What are the Red Sox's Prospects Actually Worth?

Hard to argue with any of this, but if they're thinking of moving Duran (or Abreu) in the off season, you hold onto The Password for now. Let Refsnyder walk away, and have him as your 4th outfielder/DH.

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You'd think OF would be locked in, but Rafaela is a 2b apparently. 

That's just a needs must right now. 

4 hours ago, Nick John said:

Outfield is locked for the next half decade with Anthony, Rafaela and Abrue. Not to mention who knows what happens with Duran. By the time you need to worry about the outfield again you'll have younger guys making their way through the system again. 

Nick, completely disagree on one outfielder.  Abreu is a platoon player who should be the first guy traded to solve multiple problems he causes.

1 - He CAN'T hit LH pitchers.  Fans can argue this season he's not as bad in the past, but the sample size is far too small compared to his career where he is hitting under .200!!  Remember, with his slightly higher average this season his career number is STILL below .200.  That's very bad.  He's a late inning pinch hitter at best who only shows well on defense when he's against the very weak competition in RF in the AL.  Otherwise, he has no shot at a GG.

2 - To be fair, his GG is a joke.  He finished behind both Duran and Rafaela in 2024 in defensive metrics but won a GG because his biggest competition was Soto who is a very average outfielder defensively.  Put Rafaela in RF instead and he probably wins Platinum Gloves for the next decade.

3 - Team defense is important and to maximize outfield defense Duran needs to play CF, Rafaela needs to play RF the most difficult field for 81 of his games and Anthony needs to be the next great LFer after Ted, Yaz and Rice.

4 - By carrying Abreu on the roster, you also have to carry Refsnyder for the 40% of the games when LH starters face BOS.  That's a huge waste of a roster slot.  There is no room for a platoon hitter when you only get 13 hitting slots on the roster.  9 starters and 4 reserves at Catcher, Middle infielder, Corner infielder and Outfield.

5 - The only way to salvage Abreu and his streaky home run hitting talent is to use Refsnyder and Abreu as the DH and 4th outfielder.  That eliminates the $18Million a year Yoshida who is a better all around DH than Abreu since he hits both LH and RH pitchers.

In the end, Abreu has less talent than Duran, Rafaela and Anthony and they should be the starting outfield.  Abreu swings for the fences all the time like a young Devers but with far less ability to consistently hit for average and his hot streaks and cold streaks are frequent while only facing RH pitchers.  His .212 average in May and his .222 average in July offset his .295 average in April and his .271 average in June.  He is a model of inconsistency.  He's grossly over-rated by fans, the media and especially by Cora.  Unfortunately, people around baseball see him for what he is and that's why in comparison to Duran, he has next to no value as he should.

Trading Devers was addition through subtraction and Abreu being traded would be the same thing, addition through subtraction.  The future outfield would be set with Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  Yoshida cand finally get time to prove his worth as a DH.  Campbell can return to play 1B while Mayer returns to play 2B, Story SS and Bregman 3B. 

The only hole right now is at catcher because nothing in Narvaez' past performance suggests he can maintain his hot start to the season.  He's a back-up catcher at best as the Yankees realized.  It's great that he's had a career year like Wong did last year but that doesn't change the fact that his past performance like Wong's is below league average at the MLB level and at the MiLB level.  Teel was our answer for the future and now we need a new one.  Narvaez has the skills to be the future back-up catcher.

9 hours ago, Nick John said:

Outfield is locked for the next half decade with Anthony, Rafaela and Abrue. Not to mention who knows what happens with Duran. By the time you need to worry about the outfield again you'll have younger guys making their way through the system again. 

I don't think this at all.  Abreu is near the top of the guys the Sox would trade for a premium return.  So is Duran.  Anthony in a corner is safe.  Rafaela is PROBABLY safe.  He makes very little money and - if he did not improve another lick at the plate - would be a top 5 CF overall in the game.  Garcia could easily supplant Abreu in the Sox pecking order given his ability in RF and the strides HE has made at the plate.

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Nick, completely disagree on one outfielder.  Abreu is a platoon player who should be the first guy traded to solve multiple problems he causes.

1 - He CAN'T hit LH pitchers.  Fans can argue this season he's not as bad in the past, but the sample size is far too small compared to his career where he is hitting under .200!!  Remember, with his slightly higher average this season his career number is STILL below .200.  That's very bad.  He's a late inning pinch hitter at best who only shows well on defense when he's against the very weak competition in RF in the AL.  Otherwise, he has no shot at a GG.

2 - To be fair, his GG is a joke.  He finished behind both Duran and Rafaela in 2024 in defensive metrics but won a GG because his biggest competition was Soto who is a very average outfielder defensively.  Put Rafaela in RF instead and he probably wins Platinum Gloves for the next decade.

3 - Team defense is important and to maximize outfield defense Duran needs to play CF, Rafaela needs to play RF the most difficult field for 81 of his games and Anthony needs to be the next great LFer after Ted, Yaz and Rice.

4 - By carrying Abreu on the roster, you also have to carry Refsnyder for the 40% of the games when LH starters face BOS.  That's a huge waste of a roster slot.  There is no room for a platoon hitter when you only get 13 hitting slots on the roster.  9 starters and 4 reserves at Catcher, Middle infielder, Corner infielder and Outfield.

5 - The only way to salvage Abreu and his streaky home run hitting talent is to use Refsnyder and Abreu as the DH and 4th outfielder.  That eliminates the $18Million a year Yoshida who is a better all around DH than Abreu since he hits both LH and RH pitchers.

In the end, Abreu has less talent than Duran, Rafaela and Anthony and they should be the starting outfield.  Abreu swings for the fences all the time like a young Devers but with far less ability to consistently hit for average and his hot streaks and cold streaks are frequent while only facing RH pitchers.  His .212 average in May and his .222 average in July offset his .295 average in April and his .271 average in June.  He is a model of inconsistency.  He's grossly over-rated by fans, the media and especially by Cora.  Unfortunately, people around baseball see him for what he is and that's why in comparison to Duran, he has next to no value as he should.

Trading Devers was addition through subtraction and Abreu being traded would be the same thing, addition through subtraction.  The future outfield would be set with Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  Yoshida cand finally get time to prove his worth as a DH.  Campbell can return to play 1B while Mayer returns to play 2B, Story SS and Bregman 3B. 

The only hole right now is at catcher because nothing in Narvaez' past performance suggests he can maintain his hot start to the season.  He's a back-up catcher at best as the Yankees realized.  It's great that he's had a career year like Wong did last year but that doesn't change the fact that his past performance like Wong's is below league average at the MLB level and at the MiLB level.  Teel was our answer for the future and now we need a new one.  Narvaez has the skills to be the future back-up catcher.

 

Abreu led the AL in multiple defensive metrics in RF last year.  He is a flawed player, but he is a strong plus at RF.  He leads in the AL this year.  

The tricky thing with Duran is that he was good in CF last season, but it is also the only season he has had in the bigs where he has been above average anywhere.  It is quite possible that 2024 was the outlier.