Are we good enough now?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. You win.

Finally!

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Finally!

Until Holobetz wins the Cy Young.... LOL!

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Until Holobetz wins the Cy Young.... LOL!

Yeah, I could see the Rays getting him as a Rule 5 pick. 😩

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, I could see the Rays getting him as a Rule 5 pick. 😩

Then him winning the CYA. Right!

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Then him winning the CYA. Right!

Then being traded to the Dodgers and having career killing injuries. 

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Playoff crapshoot theory (6th seeds):

2022 - TBR loses in WC, PHI makes WS

2023 - TOR loses in WC, AZ makes WS

2024 - DET makes ALDS, NYM makes NLCS

Anecdotal evidence.

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, cp176 said:

I guess just about everyone posting here would have liked to have seen more done to improve us.  Probably there could have been something more substantial.  I just think that the asking price would likely have been way too high.  I like our current team.  I’m going to continue to enjoy them.  I can see why everyone wanted Duran.  I’m glad that I still get to enjoy him in a Sox uniform.  The lack of a Grissom move still puzzles me.  Regardless of what he has faced for pitching, he has done everything that he could do.  

I am in complete agreement.  We have no idea what the asking price was for any player.  We may or may not make the playoffs.  I think we have a good chance to do so.  Enjoy the ride.

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, notin said:

I would be surprised if the Twins didn’t ask for Roman Anthony for Ryan, and the counter argument that that is unrealistic is bunk.  Not likebthevTeins needed to deal Ryan; they control him until 2028.

Matz made sense, and Bloom clearly still has some fascination for Blaze Jordan.  But May is a disappointment, especially since the Sox traded away a better and more controllable SP (Priester) earlier this year, and I’m not sure if he paid more for May than he received for Priester…

Yeah, the Priester trade is one that might end up biting us (more than it already has.)  May should eat some innings for us, which is not without some value, and will hopefully keep us in most games.

[sk7326]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Playoff crapshoot theory (6th seeds):

2022 - TBR loses in WC, PHI makes WS

2023 - TOR loses in WC, AZ makes WS

2024 - DET makes ALDS, NYM makes NLCS

As a very old man, I have seen 83 and 85 win teams win it all, and an 84 win team make the world series just 2 seasons ago.  The Red Sox have the starting pitching that can get hot for 3 weeks.  Now, I'd love more - but winning the World Series literally requires only that much.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Yeah, the Priester trade is one that might end up biting us (more than it already has.)  May should eat some innings for us, which is not without some value, and will hopefully keep us in most games.

It does suck, now.

The deal was more about the long run, so I try to give the GM some slack.

There were reasons, but they all ring hollow, now. 

[Maxbialystock]

One nutty thread. 

We are at game 111 (last night) and the Sox are 60-51 and  5-5 against four Division leaders over the past 2+ weeks. 

The pitching staff, ERA 3.74, ranked 8th in MLB, has the exact same numbers as the pricey one in 2018.  Crochet, Bello, and Giolito are the best starting threesome since 2018,  and even the bullpen is looking pretty good lately.

The Sox hitting is ranked 4th in MLB in runs scored and 5th in OPS--and that's after sending Devers to the Giants on June 16th.   The defense is as good as I can remember despite those errors--LF, RF, CF, 3b, SS, and catcher are all above average in DWAR's.   Bregman is back and making a difference.  Anthony is amazing and leading off because his OBP is .400.  Duran is sneaking back toward last year's numbers and is tied for the Sox lead in rbi's.  Rafaela and Story are exceeding expectations at bat and in the field.  Cora has four outfielders and employs them brilliantly.  Mayer is injured and Campbell bombed, but both have solid potential.  

But here on Talksox none of that counts.  Pessimism rules and the postseason is out of reach.  

To be honest, that could happen because the 2025 Sox are playing the toughest schedule in MLB.  

 

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

On 7/31/2025 at 7:11 PM, notin said:

They are a good team, which why this was such a disappointing deadline…

Could you be more specific, please?  I ask because I thought we needed a really good starter. However,  Crochet, Bello, and Giolito are the best starting threesome since the 2018 Sox.  Plus the Sox team ERA is 3.74 and ranked 8th in MLB--same as the 2018 Sox.  

 

[moonslav59]

Just less than a third of the season to go, so a lot still to be determined. Our last few seasons have seen some epic failure to end the season, but this team has a different "feel" to me.

Our pitching is ranked:

3rd in ERA-  (88) Pen 2nd/SP 9th

10th in fWAR (not far from 7th or 8th or 12th) SP: 16th/Pen: 5th

10th in xFIP and 13th in FIP

We've let up 65 unearned runs and many more that were more on the D than the pitcher. 

Top AL contenders UnERs allowed

65 BOS

50 SEA

41 DET & NYY

35 HOU & TOR

32 TEX

Fangraphs has our offense ranked 11th (not really close to 10th.) We are ranked 7th in everyday player fWAR due to an questionable ranking of 3rd in DRS. We are 10th in wRC+, but just 1 behind DET & PHI and 3 behind the NYM.

We are 5th in OPS at .753, but the home .787 OPS skews those numbers. We are 10th in away OPS, so to me, we look a lot like the 10th best offense in MLB and the 10th best staff in MLB.

That's not too bad, since a balanced team seems to do better than ones with major weaknesses.

[Maxbialystock]

On 7/31/2025 at 7:32 PM, moonslav59 said:

We are now relying on Toro to catch a second wind or K Campbell to do better at 1B than he did at 2B.

We are relying on Buehler to come back to even a shadow of what he used to be AND stay healthy.

We are now relying on Harrison or Dustin May to not suck as our 5th starter.

We cannot have any regression from Crochet, Gio, Bello, Chapman and most of our pen.

We need Bregman to stay over .900.

We need Rafaela to stay near .750 and others to hold their 2026 numbers.

We need Story to keep hitting like he has since early June.

We need about 15-20 things to go right or keep going right to be "good enough."

Other teams have hopes in newly acquired players and just keeping status quo with the ones they still have.

I'd say we are barely good enough to nab the last WC slot, but we need to stay ahead of the improved M's and Rangers. We might be able to pass the Yanks or maybe TOR, but not HOU or DET.

I see it differently.  However, because the Sox are playing the toughest schedule in all of MLB, I can't argue too much with your last paragraph.

To repeat what I've already said, this Sox pitching staff has the same team ERA, 3.74, and the same ranking, 8th, as the 2018 Sox.  The hitting isn't nearly as good as 2018, but the defense is better. 

And this.  Breslow last offseason signed Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, Narvaez, and Buehler.  Plus this season the Sox brought up Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell.  Story is worlds better than he has been for the Sox.  Rafaela is too. Narvaez is a huge improvement at catcher.  Giolito is finally paying off, and Bello seems to be finding himself.    Granted, Buehler stinks, but in July he pitched 22.2 innings in 4 games with an ERA of 3.57.  Two of those games were quality starts. 

Based on those observations, I think the 2025 Sox have been a transitional team and are now hitting their stride.  I suspect the departure of Devers helped.  

The glass is not half empty.  

[Maxbialystock]

On 7/31/2025 at 7:32 PM, moonslav59 said:

We are now relying on Toro to catch a second wind or K Campbell to do better at 1B than he did at 2B.

We are relying on Buehler to come back to even a shadow of what he used to be AND stay healthy.

We are now relying on Harrison or Dustin May to not suck as our 5th starter.

We cannot have any regression from Crochet, Gio, Bello, Chapman and most of our pen.

We need Bregman to stay over .900.

We need Rafaela to stay near .750 and others to hold their 2026 numbers.

We need Story to keep hitting like he has since early June.

We need about 15-20 things to go right or keep going right to be "good enough."

Other teams have hopes in newly acquired players and just keeping status quo with the ones they still have.

I'd say we are barely good enough to nab the last WC slot, but we need to stay ahead of the improved M's and Rangers. We might be able to pass the Yanks or maybe TOR, but not HOU or DET.

I see it differently.  However, because the Sox are playing the toughest schedule in all of MLB, I can't argue too much with your last paragraph.

To repeat what I've already said, this Sox pitching staff has the same team ERA, 3.74, and the same ranking, 8th, as the 2018 Sox.  The hitting isn't nearly as good as 2018, but the defense is better. 

And this.  Breslow last offseason signed Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, Narvaez, and Buehler.  Plus this season the Sox brought up Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell.  Story is worlds better than he has been for the Sox.  Rafaela is too. Narvaez is a huge improvement at catcher.  Giolito is finally paying off, and Bello seems to be finding himself.    Granted, Buehler stinks, but in July he pitched 22.2 innings in 4 games with an ERA of 3.57.  Two of those games were quality starts. 

Based on those observations, I think the 2025 Sox have been a transitional team and are now hitting their stride.  I suspect the departure of Devers helped.  

The glass is not half empty.  

[Maxbialystock]

On 7/31/2025 at 7:32 PM, moonslav59 said:

We are now relying on Toro to catch a second wind or K Campbell to do better at 1B than he did at 2B.

We are relying on Buehler to come back to even a shadow of what he used to be AND stay healthy.

We are now relying on Harrison or Dustin May to not suck as our 5th starter.

We cannot have any regression from Crochet, Gio, Bello, Chapman and most of our pen.

We need Bregman to stay over .900.

We need Rafaela to stay near .750 and others to hold their 2026 numbers.

We need Story to keep hitting like he has since early June.

We need about 15-20 things to go right or keep going right to be "good enough."

Other teams have hopes in newly acquired players and just keeping status quo with the ones they still have.

I'd say we are barely good enough to nab the last WC slot, but we need to stay ahead of the improved M's and Rangers. We might be able to pass the Yanks or maybe TOR, but not HOU or DET.

I see it differently.  However, because the Sox are playing the toughest schedule in all of MLB, I can't argue too much with your last paragraph.

To repeat what I've already said, this Sox pitching staff has the same team ERA, 3.74, and the same ranking, 8th, as the 2018 Sox.  The hitting isn't nearly as good as 2018, but the defense is better. 

And this.  Breslow last offseason signed Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, Narvaez, and Buehler.  Plus this season the Sox brought up Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell.  Story is worlds better than he has been for the Sox.  Rafaela is too. Narvaez is a huge improvement at catcher.  Giolito is finally paying off, and Bello seems to be finding himself.    Granted, Buehler stinks, but in July he pitched 22.2 innings in 4 games with an ERA of 3.57.  Two of those games were quality starts. 

Based on those observations, I think the 2025 Sox have been a transitional team and are now hitting their stride.  I suspect the departure of Devers helped.  

The glass is not half empty.  

[dgalehouse]

The question was " Are we good enough now "?  The simple answer is, yes, we are. This is the best Red Sox team in several years.  

[Hugh2]

This team is easily the best team they've had since 2021.  Hopefully they have some magic like that team did.....hopefully just a few games more magic. 

[Hugh2]

I don't expect this team to win a world series, and I'm certainly not betting on it or expecting it, but I think they have enough talent on this roster that if they got hot and stayed hot at the end of the year.....they could surprise a lot of people.  

Obviously every season stings when you don't win the last game, but I could feel good about a playoff berth with these youngsters getting a series or two of experience in the postseason. 

I remember being disappointed during those 2016 and 2017 seasons, but I think the experience they earned those years helped them tremendously in 2018,m and obviously JDM and Price helped push them over that hump. 

[moonslav59]

Barely good enough to make the 5th or 6th playoffs slot. (maybe 50% odds)

Slight chance of still winning the division (maybe 15- 20%)- thanks to TOR not being bold at the deadline.

The chances of going to the WS are slight (5-10%)- winning it is an extreme longshot (1-4%), IMO.

Had we traded for Ryan or Keller and a decent 1B platoon, I think we'd be top 3 in the AL with much better odds of winning the AL (maybe 25-35%) and a decent chance at a ring (10-20%)

I looked at fangraphs after writing the above, and they have this...

Odds of making playoffs:

90%+ DET, TOR, NYY & HOU (in that order)

82% SEA

66% BOS (9% chance to win ALE. TOR 58%/NYY 33%)

35% TEX

15% KCR & CLE

Win WS

10% NYY

7-8% SEA, DET, TOR (in order)

3% BOS

2% TEX

NL Teams winning WS

20% LAD

12% PHI

7% NYM, CHC

5% SDP, MIL

Basically, 10 teams have a better chance at a ring than us, but 4 AL teams do.

[sk7326]

Right now this team is kind of a spiritual cousin to the 1999 Red Sox who lost in the ALCS to the - well, you know ... the rotation is actually fairly similar

1. A true blue ace.  Obviously 1999 Pedro is one of the best pitchers in history - which is an unfair comparison to Crochet, but Crochet has been one of the two best pitchers in the AL so far and deserves that respect.

2. A good pitcher with an arm trouble history.  Then it was Saberhagen, now it is Giolito.

3. A guy who has been good but has been pretty awful.  Then it was Mark Portugal, now it is Walker Buehler.

4. A manager not shy about McGyvering the rest of the pitching staff.  One era's Jimy Williams is another's Alex Cora.  

This team does not have any offensive force at the level of 1999 Nomar - but there is probably more depth.  

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Right now this team is kind of a spiritual cousin to the 1999 Red Sox who lost in the ALCS to the - well, you know ... the rotation is actually fairly similar

1. A true blue ace.  Obviously 1999 Pedro is one of the best pitchers in history - which is an unfair comparison to Crochet, but Crochet has been one of the two best pitchers in the AL so far and deserves that respect.

2. A good pitcher with an arm trouble history.  Then it was Saberhagen, now it is Giolito.

3. A guy who has been good but has been pretty awful.  Then it was Mark Portugal, now it is Walker Buehler.

4. A manager not shy about McGyvering the rest of the pitching staff.  One era's Jimy Williams is another's Alex Cora.  

This team does not have any offensive force at the level of 1999 Nomar - but there is probably more depth.  

Mr. McGoo could see our #3 is Bello not Buehler.

They both start with a "B."

[Kimmi]

On 8/1/2025 at 10:47 PM, moonslav59 said:

It does suck, now.

The deal was more about the long run, so I try to give the GM some slack.

There were reasons, but they all ring hollow, now. 

As with most trades, it will take a while to truly assess how good or bad this was.  I'm all about the long term, but it sure would be nice to have Priester in our rotation right now.

[Kimmi]

On 8/2/2025 at 1:26 PM, Maxbialystock said:

I see it differently.  However, because the Sox are playing the toughest schedule in all of MLB, I can't argue too much with your last paragraph.

To repeat what I've already said, this Sox pitching staff has the same team ERA, 3.74, and the same ranking, 8th, as the 2018 Sox.  The hitting isn't nearly as good as 2018, but the defense is better. 

And this.  Breslow last offseason signed Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, Narvaez, and Buehler.  Plus this season the Sox brought up Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell.  Story is worlds better than he has been for the Sox.  Rafaela is too. Narvaez is a huge improvement at catcher.  Giolito is finally paying off, and Bello seems to be finding himself.    Granted, Buehler stinks, but in July he pitched 22.2 innings in 4 games with an ERA of 3.57.  Two of those games were quality starts. 

Based on those observations, I think the 2025 Sox have been a transitional team and are now hitting their stride.  I suspect the departure of Devers helped.  

The glass is not half empty.  

Max for president! 

We may or may not make the postseason, but I don't get the pessimism.  We now have the 3rd best run differential in the AL, despite playing some very tough teams since the All Star break.  There is good reason to be optimistic.

[Kimmi]

On 8/2/2025 at 2:06 PM, Hugh2 said:

I don't expect this team to win a world series, and I'm certainly not betting on it or expecting it, but I think they have enough talent on this roster that if they got hot and stayed hot at the end of the year.....they could surprise a lot of people.  

Obviously every season stings when you don't win the last game, but I could feel good about a playoff berth with these youngsters getting a series or two of experience in the postseason. 

I remember being disappointed during those 2016 and 2017 seasons, but I think the experience they earned those years helped them tremendously in 2018,m and obviously JDM and Price helped push them over that hump. 

Winning a World Series is difficult for any team, even for a team who, on paper, should have the best shot.  That being the case, I certainly would not bet on the Red Sox winning it all, nor do I expect the Red Sox to win it all. 

However, do I think the Red Sox have a very good chance of making it into the postseason?  Absolutely.  Do I think the Red Sox have as good a chance of winning the WS once they get into the postseason?  Absolutely.

And yes, it always stings when you get eliminated.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If JH believes that Duran is putting butts in Fenway seats, Duran isn't going anywhere.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

If JH believes that Duran is putting butts in Fenway seats, Duran isn't going anywhere.

I do think he puts more butts... than Abreu does.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Are the Sox good enough now? With their best hitter missing the rest of the season the Sox are much less good enough now.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Are the Sox good enough now? With their best hitter missing the rest of the season the Sox are much less good enough now.

Good enough for what?

To make the playoffs? Yes.

To win the WS if Anthony isn't heathy? Seems unlikely. 

[harmony]

Are the Red Sox good enough?

Probably.

But are we fans good enough? 

Is that even important?