Article: Red Sox and Diamondbacks Should Be Discussing Josh Naylor as Trade Deadline Nears

[Nick John]

As a unit, Red Sox first basemen are currently hitting .240/.299/.388 with 23 doubles, one triple, 10 home runs and 44 RBIs. To go along with that, they’ve walked 26 times while striking out in 81 at-bats. It isn’t awful production, but at such a valuable offensive position, the team could use an upgrade for the stretch run.

One team that could match up in a trade would be the Arizona Diamondbacks, as the team is currently 48-50, 10 games out of the NL West and 4 ½ games out of a wild card spot. With a franchise-record payroll hovering around $190 million, it’s likely they’ll look to shed some payroll. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that rival executives believe the Diamondbacks will sell off players who will be free agents in hopes of getting young pitching back in return.

In his last season before free agency, Josh Naylor is making just under $11 million for the team and it’s unlikely the team looks to re-sign him with around $112 million tied up in just ten players for the 2026 season. Arizona will be looking for a way to round out their roster without spending more than they did this season, and the Red Sox would line up perfectly as a trade partner to get cheap, young talent.

Naylor himself is having another strong season, slashing .294/.361/.456 with 18 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 58 RBIs. Though what may be most impressive this season is the way he’s cut back on striking out, that number down to just 46 as of this writing. Naylor is a veteran bat that can provide power from the left side of the plate, something the Sox have missed with the loss of Triston Casas and the trade of Rafael Devers. His ISO this season is sitting at .162, the lowest figure since he became a full-time player in 2022, but it's not like he's sacrificed a ton of in-game power for his current production.

This is also shown in his career low home run percentage of just 3.0%, a number that should increase if he stops playing his home games at Chase Field. The dimensions of the two parks are slightly different, as Fenway is well known for its Green Monster and rather weird dimensions around the park. Where right field is 335 feet at Chase Field, the shortest distance in Fenway for right field would only be 302 feet and right-center is 380 feet compared to Chase Field’s 376 feet.

Continuing the difference, Fenway has the triangle in right-center as well, measuring out to 420 feet while the furthest distance is 413 at Chase Field. This is where it starts to change. Straight away at Fenway is only 390 feet, a whole 17 feet shorter for someone like Naylor who has hit the ball this season to center at a 48.8%. Unfortunately, Naylor has only gone opposite field on 12.3% of his batted balls this season, preferring to either pull or go straight back to the middle of the field, meaning he may not get to take a ton of advantage of the Green Monster if he joins the Red Sox.

When looking at his spray chart, it seems he’s very much a more right-center or left-center hitter instead of straight away. Should he manage to hit the ball more on a line drive or in a manner where it wouldn’t hang up in the outfield, Naylor could see many doubles be hit across the outfield grass at Fenway.

What’s also another positive of Naylor is his consistency when hitting the ball hard. Since becoming a full-time player, Naylor has never had an exit velocity under 89 mph, that trend continues in 2025 as he’s hitting balls at 89.1 mph and for a hard hit rate of 41.5%, the highest since his 2022 season in Cleveland. Likewise, he doesn’t strike out much as his season number is just 12.5% of his at-bats while also walking at a career high 9.5% of his at-bats. To put his strikeout rate into consideration, it would be the best on the team when not including Masataka Yoshida who has only appeared in five games on the season. Add to it that he does something that is very important for a playoff run: hits with runners in scoring position. In 105 plate appearances in the first half, he hit .303 with runners in scoring position, that number increased to .306 with two outs. Add to it that he has some playoff experience while with Cleveland, and he could be a valuable addition to the offense just from his experience alone.

However, despite his continued success, there are questions surrounding Naylor. His home run pace has dropped significantly from hitting 31 last season to now being on pace for around 18 home runs, to how his barrel percentage and chase rates are worse this season. Despite that, I think he would benefit from coming to Boston and working in the same hitting lab that developed Roman Anthony into the number one prospect in all of baseball along with revitalizing the careers of Rob Refsnyder and Romy González and transformed Ceddanne Rafaela from a free-swinging, first-pitch-chasing batter into one of the most clutch hitters in all of baseball for the past two months. Working under Pete Fatse and the rest of the Sox hitting department could help Naylor increase his bat speed and tweak his launch angle to help bring back some of his power that is missing this season. In doing so, the team would manage to find their cleanup hitter for the remainder of the season, something they have clearly lacked all year, and lengthen their lineup even more by sliding Carlos Narváez further down the lineup.

While González and Abraham Toro have handled the position admirably following the loss of Casas for the season, both players should not be relied upon to handle full time at-bats to this degree. González has shown to hit both right-handed and left-handed pitching this season but the question surrounding him is whether his body can hold up. Already, he’s missed around a month after a freak collision with Josh Smith of the Texas Rangers and heading into the All-Star break was “banged up” according to manager Alex Cora. González may also be better suited for an infield super-utility role where he could spell either Alex Bregman or Marcelo Mayer at third base or second base while also being slotted into the starting lineup against left-handed pitchers to protect the rookie Mayer. The addition of Naylor would take the need of González at first base away and allow the infielder to provide support to the entire infield.

Toro, on the other hand, started hot for the Red Sox but in his last 21 games played before the All-Star break he hit .214/.291/.257 with three doubles and seven RBIs. Offensively, he hasn’t brought much to the team and in his last 33 at-bats is just 6-for-33, good for a .182 batting average entering the second half. He has been extremely lucky at the plate, boasting a .299 batting average for balls in play despite providing the second lowest exit velocity of his career since the 2021 season at 86.4 mph. Though unqualified due to a lack of at-bats, Toro would rank near the bottom when it comes to exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard hit rate, bat speed and chase percentage, all of which Naylor would be an improvement over.

With only half a season remaining on his contract too, Naylor could be had for cheap when it comes to prospect capital. During the offseason he was acquired from Cleveland for Slade Cecconi who entered the 2024 season was the Diamondbacks’ 17th-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline. A former first-round pick in the 2020 MLB draft, Cecconi pitched in 27 games across parts of two seasons, making 17 starts for Arizona. He would struggle, allowing 70 earned runs in 104 innings pitched for a 6.06 ERA and only striking out 84 batters in that span.

The Diamondbacks may regret trading him as he’s figured things out this season in Cleveland as he sports a 4-4 record in 10 starts, tossing 55 innings and having a 3.44 ERA. With there being question marks surrounding the rotation after this season for Arizona, he could have been a key piece in the coming seasons.

Looking at the starting pitchers currently under contract for the 2026 season, the Diamondbacks don’t have many. Without including those who are arbitration eligible, Arizona only has three starters on their roster for 2026; Corbin Burnes, Eduardo Rodríguez, and Brandon Pfaadt, who will combine for $55.2 million in salary. And to make it worse, Burnes is likely to miss a good portion of the 2026 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery he had back in June. Ryne Nelson is going to slot into the rotation as well, but he’s still pre-arbitration.

So, how does this line up with the Red Sox being a good trade partner for Arizona? The Red Sox have a lot of young pitching that is close to being ready for the major leagues if not already ready. While their current Triple-A pitching staff may not be enticing in a trade, if you look at Portland, there are two pitchers the Red Sox could possibly be willing to move in a trade. David Sandlin and Connelly Early are young pitchers who have risen up the Red Sox prospect rankings, but following the development of their 2024 draft prospects and the many pitching selections they made in the 2025 draft, one or even both may become expendable, and Arizona may have interest in one of them to hold down a rotation spot in 2026 for them.

Looking at the original deal Arizona made for Naylor, would it seem out of place to offer up Sandlin in a straight one-for-one trade? Sandlin may lack the major league experience that Cecconi had, but he’s shown this season to have a lively arm that has struck out 81 batters in 74 1/3 innings. With a fastball that can top out at 99 mph in game and paired with a slider that is viewed as potentially being a plus offering, Arizona could view him as either a mid to backend rotation arm or a key bullpen piece on an extremely cheap contract

Should the Diamondbacks want more than just a single pitcher back for Naylor, the Red Sox could offer a trade of multiple arms they may not have much desire to keep around. Could Arizona possibly be swayed into accepting something along the lines of Tyler Uberstine and Hayden Mullins? The pair are the 21st and 23rd-ranked prospects in the system by SoxProspects. Given his status as a rental bat, that could be enough to get the deal done.

Though one thing is certain, if the Diamondbacks want young arms back in return for Naylor, the Red Sox have plenty of young arms they could offer from their system, especially after drafting 15 pitchers in this year’s draft. If the Red Sox want to make the playoffs, they have to upgrade certain positions and first base is one of them. Craig Breslow has shown he’s not afraid to make a trade, and if he thinks Naylor is right for the team, then you can bet he'll be in contact with Arizona’s front office leading up to the trade deadline.

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[moonslav59]

I'd like to see us get him, but at what return?

I'd offer Casas & Romero. Maybe Casas & Early or Sandlin.

I doubt any of these get the job done.

Would anyone offer Casas, Romero & Sandlin?

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to see us get him, but at what return?

I'd offer Casas & Romero. Maybe Casas & Early or Sandlin.

I doubt any of these get the job done.

Would anyone offer Casas, Romero & Sandlin?

Seems like a lot for a rental bat.  Who's the last real rental bat the Sox acquired - Steve Pearce?  They gave up Espinal for him. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems like a lot for a rental bat.  Who's the last real rental bat the Sox acquired - Steve Pearce?  They gave up Espinal for him. 

I would do Casas & Sandlin.

I probably would do Casas & Romero, but if we lose Bregman, we may wish we didn't.

Casas and Early might be okay, as we just added so many pitchers in the draft.

Ideally, we'd offer Casas and Mullins and cross our fingers.

[mvp 78]

Per Statcast:

Naylor career HR: 97

Career AZ: 96

Career Fenway: 69

I don't believe putting him in Fenway is going to improve his power at all. Simply plotting his spray chart onto a different field doesn't show us what he'd actually do at Fenway. 

Is it worth it to trade Sandlin for two months of a -2 OAA 1b that won't be tearing the cover off the ball down the stretch? If you really believe this team is going to make some noise in October I guess.  

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is it worth it to trade Sandlin for two months of a -2 OAA 1b that won't be tearing the cover off the ball down the stretch?   

Nope.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe putting him in Fenway is going to improve his power at all. Simply plotting his spray chart onto a different field doesn't show us what he'd actually do at Fenway. 

Is it worth it to trade Sandlin for two months of a -2 OAA 1b that won't be tearing the cover off the ball down the stretch? If you really believe this team is going to make some noise in October I guess.  

I prefer Yandy Diaz and his righty bat. He's had a little more pop than Naylor; with 15 HRs, only Abreu has more on these Sox. 

Think home runs are overrated? Boston blasted 15 in the 10-game win streak, then got blanked the first two games at Wrigley Field, when the Cubs scored 8 of their 10 runs on 6 longballs. But Abreu and Bregman went yard yesterday and the Red Sox won.

21st Century Red Sox World Series MVPS: Manny, Mike Lowell, Big Papi, Steve Pearce.

All slugged home runs to help win rings.

The 50-year celebration of the '75 Sox has put spotlight back on the two most memorable hits of their final Series: Fisk's walkoff and Carbo's 3-run game-tying pinch HR.

And for kids growing up in the origins of Red Sox Nation as we know it, Topps baseball cards immortalized key moments from the 1967 Impossible Dream season in the '68 set: "Yaz Smashes Two Homers" (Gm 2, #152) and "Petrocelli Socks Two Homers" (Gm 6, #156). Collect them all.

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I prefer Yandy Diaz and his righty bat.

Rays exercised his '26 option, so I'm not sure they'd trade him. I know they are in the process of being sold, but I don't think that impacts short term salary like this. 

I also don't think he'd be a Fenway masher.

[Maxbialystock]

51 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I prefer Yandy Diaz and his righty bat. He's had a little more pop than Naylor; with 15 HRs, only Abreu has more on these Sox. 

Think home runs are overrated? Boston blasted 15 in the 10-game win streak, then got blanked the first two games at Wrigley Field, when the Cubs scored 8 of their 10 runs on 6 longballs. But Abreu and Bregman went yard yesterday and the Red Sox won.

21st Century Red Sox World Series MVPS: Manny, Mike Lowell, Big Papi, Steve Pearce.

All slugged home runs to help win rings.

The 50-year celebration of the '75 Sox has put spotlight back on the two most memorable hits of their final Series: Fisk's walkoff and Carbo's 3-run game-tying pinch HR.

And for kids growing up in the origins of Red Sox Nation as we know it, Topps baseball cards immortalized key moments from the 1967 Impossible Dream season in the '68 set: "Yaz Smashes Two Homers" (Gm 2, #152) and "Petrocelli Socks Two Homers" (Gm 6, #156). Collect them all.

 

In the most relevant Sox era, the John Henry era of the four WS wins, the Sox right now are ranked 9th in MLB in dingers.  In 2018, best Sox season ever, they were 8th.  In 2007 they were 12.  In 2004 they were 5th and in 2013 they were 6th.  

Earl Weaver, probably the best Orioles manager ever, believed in good pitching and the 3 run dinger.  

[notin]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rays exercised his '26 option, so I'm not sure they'd trade him. I know they are in the process of being sold, but I don't think that impacts short term salary like this. 

I also don't think he'd be a Fenway masher.

Sox have been linked to him…

[notin]

On 7/20/2025 at 8:20 AM, moonslav59 said:

I would do Casas & Sandlin.

I probably would do Casas & Romero, but if we lose Bregman, we may wish we didn't.

Casas and Early might be okay, as we just added so many pitchers in the draft.

Ideally, we'd offer Casas and Mullins and cross our fingers.

With Seattle and Texas involved, the deadline market for 1b is surprisingly competitive.  But not so much that Naylor will command a huge price as a two month rental. I think every name mentioned on his own is an overlay here.

And if AZ demands to much, move on towards O’Hearn or Bell or Hoskins or Santana or Diaz or Ty France…

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

In the most relevant Sox era, the John Henry era of the four WS wins, the Sox right now are ranked 9th in MLB in dingers.  In 2018, best Sox season ever, they were 8th.  In 2007 they were 12.  In 2004 they were 5th and in 2013 they were 6th.  

Earl Weaver, probably the best Orioles manager ever, believed in good pitching and the 3 run dinger.  

… and defense.

He didn’t start Mark Belanger at SS because he was afraid of missing out on those 9 RBIs…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Sox have been linked to him…

Well I don't think Fenway would be a good fit for his skills.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

With Seattle and Texas involved, the deadline market for 1b is surprisingly competitive.  But not so much that Naylor will command a huge price as a two month rental. I think every name mentioned on his own is an overlay here.

And if AZ demands to much, move on towards O’Hearn or Bell or Hoskins or Santana or Diaz or Ty France…

For me, it just depends on the price tag. Sandlin? Seems a little high. Romero, Bleis, Cespedes, Paez, Monegro or similar? Sounds better to me. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Earl Weaver, probably the best Orioles manager ever, believed in good pitching and the 3 run dinger.  

Earl's O's also had one of the best defensive teams in big league history, with three fielders among the best ever at their positions.

I agree with the adage about shaking the baseball tree -- where 10 gloves fall out for every 1 bat -- but if you're building a club around pitching, you'd better have good D to support it...

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

With Seattle and Texas involved, the deadline market for 1b is surprisingly competitive.  But not so much that Naylor will command a huge price as a two month rental. I think every name mentioned on his own is an overlay here.

And if AZ demands to much, move on towards O’Hearn or Bell or Hoskins or Santana or Diaz or Ty France…

I'm thinking even Casas + Early is too much for a rental 1Bman, but I think I'd go that high for a good one. (No more, though.)