Article: The Red Sox's Present and Future in the Middle Infield is Complicated

[Finley Rogan]

In what has been an up-and-down season for the Red Sox, the middle infield has struggled mightily. Shortstop Trevor Story, and second base options David Hamilton and Kristian Campbell have combined for a 0.0 fWAR. That level of production is unacceptable for a team possessing postseason aspirations.

Campbell has already been sent down, and Hamilton could be next once Alex Bregman is activated, although I expect recently-promoted Nate Eaton to be the next player sent back to Worcester. It does, however, remain unclear where Campbell will play when he is recalled, as he has been getting work in at first base in Triple-A.  The logical idea is that when Bregman returns, the Red Sox will shift Marcelo Mayer over to second base, and Hamilton will return to a bench role.

At shortstop, Trevor Story has turned the page after his awful start to the season. He has a 121 wRC+ since May 30th, although his season total is 75, demonstrating just how awful Story was in the first two months. The fact remains that Story is just not a good player anymore, his defense being average at best while he works with a career-low walk rate of 4%. Story remains a good baserunner, and it seems like he has enough in the tank to continue to have good stretches of play like the one he is in now. All that is to say, despite the lackluster production, Story will continue to play shortstop every day throughout the rest of the season. Once the offseason arrives, the Red Sox may reconsider their long-term outlook with Story, considering Marcelo Mayer is ready to go. The best hope for the rest of season is that the shortstop can produce at a league-average level and continue to mix in some power.

When a team gives a player a multi-year deal with a big financial obligation like the Red Sox did with Story, they feel more compelled to give them an extended runway before seeking a potential out by either cutting the player or seeking a trade. Hamilton is a different story for Boston, as they did not sign him long-term in free agency and the team does not need to give him an extended opportunity for production. Many fans believe he has already had ample time to show that he belongs on this year's roster and failed to do so. In his 111 plate appearances this season, Hamilton has struggled mightily, slashing .179/.209/.292. Those are not numbers that justify a big league roster spot. It would be different if Hamilton could bring elite defensive value while finding his stride at the plate like Ceddanne Rafaela, but that is simply not the case. Aside from his 95th percentile sprint speed and baserunning ability, Hamilton has not demonstrated defensive or offensive skills that excite. Any role going forward will be centered around base-running – his 6.2 BsR ranked 10th among all players in the majors last season. There are tools for Hamilton to be a decent infielder, but if Campbell is recalled after Bregman’s return from injury, an option down to Worcester could be in his future.  

That leaves Marcelo Mayer as the likely second baseman by mid-July, and he will potentially be platooning with Campbell once he returns. Mayer has just 13 at-bats against left-handed pitchers and has struck out five times. Yes, the sample is small, but it is hard to imagine the Red Sox being comfortable with Mayer playing second base night in and night out. This is where Campbell comes into the fold, the rookie owning a passable 97 wRC+ against left-handed pitching during his time in the majors. There is also a scenario against left-handers where the Red Sox opt for Romy Gonzalez at second, to go along with Abraham Toro at first. Flexibility will likely be the route the Red Sox take at second base this season, barring a buy-side trade deadline acquisition which seems unlikely. 

The issue with the second base position for the Red Sox is that all of their options have major weaknesses. Mater still hasn’t found his consistent stride at the plate, and although we trust his glove, he made his debut at second base Tuesday night. Hamilton quite simply can’t hit, and Campbell, who is the best hitter of the bunch, has shown no defensive ability this season and is near unplayable at times in the infield. 

The best case for the Red Sox is that they can rely on a semi-productive Story at shortstop while leaning into the rookies and finding some offense from Mayer and Campbell at second. I expect David Hamilton to be shuttled on and off the active roster for the remainder of the season. I doubt any of the infielders are traded (in a sell-side deal), as the Red Sox lack big league depth at those positions. And, let's not get it twisted, a middle infield with Story at shortstop and a rotation at second base can still present some high-end outcomes, especially with the talent players like Campbell and Mayer possess.

Just don't expect this group to carry the team at any point. And come the offseason, the Red Sox will need to commit to a long-term plan up the middle.

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[Hitch]

28 minutes ago, Finley Rogan said:

The fact remains that Story is just not a good player anymore, his defense being average at best while he works with a career-low walk rate of 4%. 

 

Sweet Jesus! I did not realise it was that low! 

[mvp 78]

Highest swinging strike rate of his career at 24.5% (18.7 is league av). Also highest 1st strike %, strike %, pitches swung at %. Lowest 3-0 count %, 3-1 count %, productive outs %. He's been pretty terrible even when you include his "good" June. 

[Hitch]

Luckily he's on a great contract so not all is lost. 🙄

[TedYazPapiMookie]

When Bregman gets back Story needs to be the fourth infielder subbing at SS and 2B once a month and pinch hitting or pinch running the rest of the time.  Mayer needs to go to SS to see if he has the skills to play defense at that position, not 2B.  Campbell needs to come back up to play 2B to see if he can play the position or go back to his original position at SS if Mayer fails or gets hurt which historically has been one of his biggest issues.  First base needs to be a competition between Toro and Gonzalez.  LF needs to be Anthony, Duran needs to be in CF and Rafaela in RF and then DH can be shared by Abreu against RH pitchers and Toro/Gonzalez vs LH pitchers.  This line-up provides the valuable feedback needed to set a plan for 2026.  2025 is a pipe dream for making the playoffs so do something constructive and start setting the stage for 2026.  Dump Buehler if anyone will have him.  Dump Yoshida if anyone will have him or seriously consider using him as the DH instead of Abreu and dump Abreu at the deadline since you only need one roster spot for DH if Yoshida is the DH.

As far as middle infield goes.  The best two middle infielder hitters based on minor league performance are Campbell and Mayer.  The team must determine if their original plan of Mayer at SS and Campbell at 2B works.  If Campbell struggles at his new position of 2B and Cora won't try Campbell at SS then trade him because another franchise will better respect what he accomplished last year and make him their SS of the future.  His return will be higher than others because he gets the least respect for his accomplishments from the Red Sox organization thanks to Cora.  When Cora chose to sit him, he made a huge mistake as usual.  Breslow can't hang on to players that Cora won't play so trade him while people still remember the Player of the Year award.

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

 

he should act as if it were the training camp that is starting now and ends next season, look at who will fight for a position and see what they can do and trade or release players who may no longer be in the team's plans, give internal competition within the team

[Bellhorn04]

Crazy as it may seem, Story has 18 RBI in June.  We would be even worse without him.  Like I said, crazy.

[mvp 78]

Mayer could quit baseball without telling anyone to join the circus and they still wouldn't put Campbell at SS. 

[Maxbialystock]

For right now and until the Sox decide they have no hope of the postseason, I think they should stay with Bregman (when he returns) at 3b, Story at SS, Mayer at 2b, and whoever (Toro/Gonzalez/Campbell) at 1b.  It wouldn't bother me to move Mayer to SS and Story to 2b.  

I have always said hitting is more important than defense, but right now the Sox pitching needs all they help they can get.  With that infield and an outfield of Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu and Narvaez/Wong catching the Sox would have an above average defense.  

I also kind of like this lineup:  1. Abreu RF, 2. Ref/Yoshida DH, 3. Bregman 3b, 4 Gonzalez/Toro 1b, 5. Narvaez C, 6. Anthony LF, 7 Rafaela CF, 8 Mayer SS/2b,  and 9 Story SS/2b.  

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

2B has been a big weakness for 7 seasons, except for a couple nice half seasons by Story and Kike.

It does look like having either Story or Mayer at 2B (whoever is not at SS) should be an improvement. Improving on bottom 5 might not be enough. We need some vast improvements at positions like 2B and SS.

SS was fine under Bogey's regime, although the defense was lacking. Story's D seems to be back to his norm, and he's been hot, recently, but a 0.0 WAR cannot go on.

I'm confident Mayer will be a significant plus at SS or 2B, in a short time. I'm not confident in Campbell, anymore. A DHam-Romy platoon is okay as depth but not as the go-to plan.

I still have pitching as a higher priority, but middle IF is a high need area.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

15 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer could quit baseball without telling anyone to join the circus and they still wouldn't put Campbell at SS. 

Heck I thought Mayer had already joined the circus!!!  If you are saying the head clown wouldn't play Campbell, I think that's an accurate statement!!  You know how those clowns like to stick together and have no issues with their humorous performances.