The Red Sox's Present and Future in the Middle Infield is Complicated

In what has been an up-and-down season for the Red Sox, the middle infield has struggled mightily. Shortstop Trevor Story, and second base options David Hamilton and Kristian Campbell have combined for a 0.0 fWAR. That level of production is unacceptable for a team possessing postseason aspirations.

Campbell has already been sent down, and Hamilton could be next once Alex Bregman is activated, although I expect recently-promoted Nate Eaton to be the next player sent back to Worcester. It does, however, remain unclear where Campbell will play when he is recalled, as he has been getting work in at first base in Triple-A.  The logical idea is that when Bregman returns, the Red Sox will shift Marcelo Mayer over to second base, and Hamilton will return to a bench role.

At shortstop, Trevor Story has turned the page after his awful start to the season. He has a 121 wRC+ since May 30th, although his season total is 75, demonstrating just how awful Story was in the first two months. The fact remains that Story is just not a good player anymore, his defense being average at best while he works with a career-low walk rate of 4%. Story remains a good baserunner, and it seems like he has enough in the tank to continue to have good stretches of play like the one he is in now. All that is to say, despite the lackluster production, Story will continue to play shortstop every day throughout the rest of the season. Once the offseason arrives, the Red Sox may reconsider their long-term outlook with Story, considering Marcelo Mayer is ready to go. The best hope for the rest of season is that the shortstop can produce at a league-average level and continue to mix in some power.

When a team gives a player a multi-year deal with a big financial obligation like the Red Sox did with Story, they feel more compelled to give them an extended runway before seeking a potential out by either cutting the player or seeking a trade. Hamilton is a different story for Boston, as they did not sign him long-term in free agency and the team does not need to give him an extended opportunity for production. Many fans believe he has already had ample time to show that he belongs on this year's roster and failed to do so. In his 111 plate appearances this season, Hamilton has struggled mightily, slashing .179/.209/.292. Those are not numbers that justify a big league roster spot. It would be different if Hamilton could bring elite defensive value while finding his stride at the plate like Ceddanne Rafaela, but that is simply not the case. Aside from his 95th percentile sprint speed and baserunning ability, Hamilton has not demonstrated defensive or offensive skills that excite. Any role going forward will be centered around base-running – his 6.2 BsR ranked 10th among all players in the majors last season. There are tools for Hamilton to be a decent infielder, but if Campbell is recalled after Bregman’s return from injury, an option down to Worcester could be in his future.  

That leaves Marcelo Mayer as the likely second baseman by mid-July, and he will potentially be platooning with Campbell once he returns. Mayer has just 13 at-bats against left-handed pitchers and has struck out five times. Yes, the sample is small, but it is hard to imagine the Red Sox being comfortable with Mayer playing second base night in and night out. This is where Campbell comes into the fold, the rookie owning a passable 97 wRC+ against left-handed pitching during his time in the majors. There is also a scenario against left-handers where the Red Sox opt for Romy Gonzalez at second, to go along with Abraham Toro at first. Flexibility will likely be the route the Red Sox take at second base this season, barring a buy-side trade deadline acquisition which seems unlikely. 

The issue with the second base position for the Red Sox is that all of their options have major weaknesses. Mater still hasn’t found his consistent stride at the plate, and although we trust his glove, he made his debut at second base Tuesday night. Hamilton quite simply can’t hit, and Campbell, who is the best hitter of the bunch, has shown no defensive ability this season and is near unplayable at times in the infield. 

The best case for the Red Sox is that they can rely on a semi-productive Story at shortstop while leaning into the rookies and finding some offense from Mayer and Campbell at second. I expect David Hamilton to be shuttled on and off the active roster for the remainder of the season. I doubt any of the infielders are traded (in a sell-side deal), as the Red Sox lack big league depth at those positions. And, let's not get it twisted, a middle infield with Story at shortstop and a rotation at second base can still present some high-end outcomes, especially with the talent players like Campbell and Mayer possess.

Just don't expect this group to carry the team at any point. And come the offseason, the Red Sox will need to commit to a long-term plan up the middle.