Article: Wilyer Abreu Should Be Next In Line For A Contract Extension

[Alex Mayes]

Wilyer Abreu has been the third-best hitter on the Boston Red Sox. The statistics may not fully support that, but the eye test proves it. When he steps up to the plate, you feel confident that he’s going to come through and make contact. He’s a Gold Glove right fielder and should be in the conversation for the award again this year. Coming into the season, he made some changes to his game that will benefit him in seasons to come as well. He’s hitting for more power, swiping more bases, and being far more patient at the plate.

There are a few things that have helped Abreu tap into more power this season. First, his batting stance has opened up just a bit. He is now standing a bit more shallow in the box compared to last season, from 31” to 29.5”; he's added almost four inches of distance between his feet from 26.8” to 32.5”, and his stance has gone from 20 degrees open to 22 degrees open. This means he’s a bit more open, and he’s able to sit on his back leg more to tap into some power he has been lacking in his pro career. What this has allowed him to do is hit four fewer home runs so far this season, 11, than he did all of 2024, 15, raising his slugging percentage from .459 to .503. When he puts the ball in play, there’s a better chance that he’s going to put it over the fence or put a solid enough charge into it that he will wind up with a multi-base hit. 

Despite his sprint speed going from the 55th percentile in 2024 to the 48th percentile this season, Abreu has swiped half of the total bases from last season already. He’s not a speed demon, and he never will be, but already notching four stolen bases this season bodes well for his stolen base total as he keeps playing. What those stolen bases do, though, is put him in a position to score on most balls in play. He’s being more aggressive, and it’s paying off.

What’s most impressive, though, is that Abreu is far more patient at the plate this season than he has been before. In 2024, he held a strikeout percentage of 28% and worked a walk rate of 8.9%. This season, he has lowered his strikeout percentage to 20.1% and increased his walk rate to 11.6%. He’s working deeper in counts and forcing pitchers to either come over the plate to him, where he should make them pay with his newfound power, or he’s laying off ball four and taking a walk. Either way, he’s putting himself in a position to get on base and score. It’s also paying off in his whiff percentage. In 2024, he whiffed 29.6% of the time. In 2025, he reduced that to 18.3%, well below the league average of 21.9%. Combine his power, base stealing, and patience at the plate, and suddenly we’re looking at a contributing player who deserves to be in the extension conversation.

I’ve only touched on Wilyer Abreu’s offensive production here, but he’s still playing elite defense in right field. Wilyer should be looked at as a core member of the Boston Red Sox, and he’s proving over and over again why. It’s time for Alex Cora and the front office to trust him more than a platoon outfielder, let him play against lefties, and reward him with a contract extension.

(h/t Baseball Savant and FanGraphs)

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[Hugh2]

I'm not sold on an Abreu extension. 

Abreu is hitting .227 with a .664 OPS vs. lefties this year. 0 HR and 2 RBI's and his career line is even worse than that.  To be fair the Sox give him very little exposure to lefties, only 103 career at bats. 

I like Wilyer, I'm happy with him as a player and wouldn't even hate if they gave him a chance to hit lefties (although I do have my doubts if he ever will). But there's no need to extend him. 

He will be 30 years old when he plays his first season out of team control.  The Sox control Abreu throughout his 20's. Also a lot of his value comes in his defense, which is great, but that's not rewarded the same way that home runs and SLG % and he will probably always live in that 450-500 at bat range max the way they use him.  That's not a guy who is going to kill you in arbitration.

Again I like Wilyer, and just because I don't think he should be extended doesn't mean I don't see him on this team.  I just don't think there's a real big risk in not having him in Boston 2030 and beyond. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure how you can advocate an extension for Abreu without explaining the plan for Anthony.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not sure how you can advocate an extension for Abreu without explaining the plan for Anthony.

1. The extension would be cheap as he's a platoon guy. 

2. Anthony doesn't want to be extended. 

3. It's probably just moving on from Duran, which Alex has advocated for numerous times.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not sold on an Abreu extension. 

Abreu is hitting .227 with a .664 OPS vs. lefties this year. 0 HR and 2 RBI's and his career line is even worse than that.  To be fair the Sox give him very little exposure to lefties, only 103 career at bats. 

I like Wilyer, I'm happy with him as a player and wouldn't even hate if they gave him a chance to hit lefties (although I do have my doubts if he ever will). But there's no need to extend him. 

He will be 30 years old when he plays his first season out of team control.  The Sox control Abreu throughout his 20's. Also a lot of his value comes in his defense, which is great, but that's not rewarded the same way that home runs and SLG % and he will probably always live in that 450-500 at bat range max the way they use him.  That's not a guy who is going to kill you in arbitration.

Again I like Wilyer, and just because I don't think he should be extended doesn't mean I don't see him on this team.  I just don't think there's a real big risk in not having him in Boston 2030 and beyond. 

 

I think it’s best to hear some actual extension terms first.  Would a 5 year $25mill extension (with options?) be a deal breaker?

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not sure how you can advocate an extension for Abreu without explaining the plan for Anthony.

If you’re not sure, read the article.  Exactly what he did…

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not sure how you can advocate an extension for Abreu without explaining the plan for Anthony.

Do the Red Sox really have a plan for anything? Masa off in exile. Story taking up space, and payroll. Throwing things against the wall at see what sticks at 1B. Not to mention everyone’s favorite son’s chafing at the bit down at Woo, but No apparent place for them in Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

If you’re not sure, read the article.  Exactly what he did…

Anthony is not mentioned.  No idea why you posted this.  mvp did get my point and responded to it.

[Hugh2]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

I think it’s best to hear some actual extension terms first.  Would a 5 year $25mill extension (with options?) be a deal breaker?

No, that would be fine, but why would Wilyer ever sign that when guys next to him like Rafaela and Campbell are getting much more?

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No, that would be fine, but why would Wilyer ever sign that when guys next to him like Rafaela and Campbell are getting much more?

I don’t see any Red Sox OF being offered any long term extension anytime soon since it doesn’t appear Anthony is interested.

[notin]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Anthony is not mentioned.  No idea why you posted this.  mvp did get my point and responded to it.

The point is an Abreu extension should be considered without taking into account other players, particularly minor leaguers…

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No, that would be fine, but why would Wilyer ever sign that when guys next to him like Rafaela and Campbell are getting much more?

Because they’re younger, which makes them more valuable and adds years to their extension.  But if you’re not sure like, what about 5 years $35mill?  That puts his AAV between the two you named…,

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

The point is an Abreu extension should be considered without taking into account other players, particularly minor leaguers…

That would be your point.  There's nothing about that in the article.

Anthony is just a 'minor leaguer'?

I see you're off to a flying start this morning.  🙃

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Because they’re younger, which makes them more valuable and adds years to their extension.  But if you’re not sure like, what about 5 years $35mill?  That puts his AAV between the two you named…,

Yeah but that's just the thing, they have him under control until his age 30 season, or thru his age 29.  As good as he is, is he going to age into his 30's? I just don't see any real value in extending, the Sox already have him for another 4.5 years.

Sometimes I think you just take the team control.  I'd rather roll the dice on guys like Campbell. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The point is an Abreu extension should be considered without taking into account other players, particularly minor leaguers…

...

[TedYazPapiMookie]

No offense but giving a contract of any length to a platoon outfielder when it's the organization's deepest position makes very little sense.  Remember he hits .273 vs right-handed pitchers and .194 against left-handed pitchers.   That's exactly why he is a platoon player and at best a back-up when Anthony comes to the MLB.  

Duran is an all-star, Rafaela proves daily that he might be one of the best defensive CF in the game and Anthony is a better fielder and hitter than Abreu so why would he get a long-term contract rather than being traded to get something the team might need since we are still a .500 team?  Let's get more pitching with Abreu and Yoshida.  

If you look at Abreu's stats, he's a streaky hitter.  He hits great in April and August, poorly in May and September, and between .250 and .265 in June and July.  Duran, Rafaela and Anthony with Refsnyder as the 4th outfielder makes Abreu completely expendable.  

More splits on Abreu show he's hitting .211 at home and .312 on the road.  He's hitting .227 vs lefties but he's hitting .176 versus left-handed starters.  He hit .295 in April and .208 in May so far.  He's hitting .042 with 2 outs and RISP which seems to be a common problem this season.  

Rafaela on the other hand who he is competing with him as Anthony's promotion is not too far away is hitting .271 at home and .205 on the road.  As far as clutch stats go, he's hitting .364 with 2 outs and RISP which begs the question why is he still hitting 9th when the team average with 2 outs and RISP is .216?  Almost .150 points less than Rafaela. 

The batting order is such a critical aspect to winning and Cora has failed miserably at putting together batting orders that work.  Think about that.  As good as the data has been with regard to hitting vs pitching, how good could it have been with a better, more logical batting order?  Why haven't Campbell or Rafaela been batting 2nd, especially in April when Campbell was red hot?  Or Rafaela now that he's done well in May?  Duran is hitting now, add a righty in the 2nd slot and Devers RBI opportunities would jump.   Without a power hitting right-hander other than Bregman, (who needs to stay behind Devers right now) the team desperately needs a trade to get one which would allow Bregman to move to the 2 hole and the new power bat would fill the 4 hole to protect Devers.

This team's manager also needs to recognize who is hot faster and adjust the line-up accordingly.  Did you know Rafaela has gone from worst at Ks to best at Ks so that issue has been eliminated.  Even more reason for Cora to move him up in the order and Abreu down until Abreu heats up again in June.  

Too much time is spent right now on thinking about extensions.  These young guys haven't earned them yet so give it time to see if they deserve it.   We need wins not contracts.  

[mvp 78]

Abreu has more WAR than Duran or Rafaela, but is a backup. Ok? 

I guess we're doing jumping jacks for Duran's career 628 OPS vs LHP too? 

Jarren Duran WAS an All Star. He won't be an All Star this year and from the looks of it, he won't ever be again. At least Scott Cooper was an All Star twice. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu has more WAR than Duran or Rafaela, but is a backup. Ok? 

I guess we're doing jumping jacks for Duran's career 628 OPS vs LHP too? 

Jarren Duran WAS an All Star. He won't be an All Star this year and from the looks of it, he won't ever be again. At least Scott Cooper was an All Star twice. 

I wanted to make the Scott Cooper reference…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I wanted to make the Scott Cooper reference…

You need to be quicker! 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That would be your point.  There's nothing about that in the article.

Anthony is just a 'minor leaguer'?

I see you're off to a flying start this morning.  🙃

Simple question - do you  think a player is less worthy of an extension because you have a prospect behind him?

First of all, they’re outfielders, plenty of room for both given each can handle any position.  
 

Should any extension for Duran consider Anthony as well?

 

And yes, Anthony is a minor leaguer right now.  He’s well-regarded, but plenty of players equally regarded have had minimal to no career.  
 

Also in many cases, extensions make a player more tradable.  If Abreu signs for Ozzie Albies terms, hes not blocking anyone because even Pitt and Sacra-Vegas can afford that deal.  It’s just an extension right now - no one is saying he gets Devers money.  Or even Rafaela money…

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

You need to be quicker! 

A sentence heard by Scott Cooper all too often…