Wilyer Abreu Should Be Next In Line For A Contract Extension

I'm not sold on an Abreu extension. 

Abreu is hitting .227 with a .664 OPS vs. lefties this year. 0 HR and 2 RBI's and his career line is even worse than that.  To be fair the Sox give him very little exposure to lefties, only 103 career at bats. 

I like Wilyer, I'm happy with him as a player and wouldn't even hate if they gave him a chance to hit lefties (although I do have my doubts if he ever will). But there's no need to extend him. 

He will be 30 years old when he plays his first season out of team control.  The Sox control Abreu throughout his 20's. Also a lot of his value comes in his defense, which is great, but that's not rewarded the same way that home runs and SLG % and he will probably always live in that 450-500 at bat range max the way they use him.  That's not a guy who is going to kill you in arbitration.

Again I like Wilyer, and just because I don't think he should be extended doesn't mean I don't see him on this team.  I just don't think there's a real big risk in not having him in Boston 2030 and beyond. 

24 minutes ago, notin said:

I think it’s best to hear some actual extension terms first.  Would a 5 year $25mill extension (with options?) be a deal breaker?

No, that would be fine, but why would Wilyer ever sign that when guys next to him like Rafaela and Campbell are getting much more?

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Because they’re younger, which makes them more valuable and adds years to their extension.  But if you’re not sure like, what about 5 years $35mill?  That puts his AAV between the two you named…,

Yeah but that's just the thing, they have him under control until his age 30 season, or thru his age 29.  As good as he is, is he going to age into his 30's? I just don't see any real value in extending, the Sox already have him for another 4.5 years.

Sometimes I think you just take the team control.  I'd rather roll the dice on guys like Campbell. 

No offense but giving a contract of any length to a platoon outfielder when it's the organization's deepest position makes very little sense.  Remember he hits .273 vs right-handed pitchers and .194 against left-handed pitchers.   That's exactly why he is a platoon player and at best a back-up when Anthony comes to the MLB.  

Duran is an all-star, Rafaela proves daily that he might be one of the best defensive CF in the game and Anthony is a better fielder and hitter than Abreu so why would he get a long-term contract rather than being traded to get something the team might need since we are still a .500 team?  Let's get more pitching with Abreu and Yoshida.  

If you look at Abreu's stats, he's a streaky hitter.  He hits great in April and August, poorly in May and September, and between .250 and .265 in June and July.  Duran, Rafaela and Anthony with Refsnyder as the 4th outfielder makes Abreu completely expendable.  

More splits on Abreu show he's hitting .211 at home and .312 on the road.  He's hitting .227 vs lefties but he's hitting .176 versus left-handed starters.  He hit .295 in April and .208 in May so far.  He's hitting .042 with 2 outs and RISP which seems to be a common problem this season.  

Rafaela on the other hand who he is competing with him as Anthony's promotion is not too far away is hitting .271 at home and .205 on the road.  As far as clutch stats go, he's hitting .364 with 2 outs and RISP which begs the question why is he still hitting 9th when the team average with 2 outs and RISP is .216?  Almost .150 points less than Rafaela. 

The batting order is such a critical aspect to winning and Cora has failed miserably at putting together batting orders that work.  Think about that.  As good as the data has been with regard to hitting vs pitching, how good could it have been with a better, more logical batting order?  Why haven't Campbell or Rafaela been batting 2nd, especially in April when Campbell was red hot?  Or Rafaela now that he's done well in May?  Duran is hitting now, add a righty in the 2nd slot and Devers RBI opportunities would jump.   Without a power hitting right-hander other than Bregman, (who needs to stay behind Devers right now) the team desperately needs a trade to get one which would allow Bregman to move to the 2 hole and the new power bat would fill the 4 hole to protect Devers.

This team's manager also needs to recognize who is hot faster and adjust the line-up accordingly.  Did you know Rafaela has gone from worst at Ks to best at Ks so that issue has been eliminated.  Even more reason for Cora to move him up in the order and Abreu down until Abreu heats up again in June.  

Too much time is spent right now on thinking about extensions.  These young guys haven't earned them yet so give it time to see if they deserve it.   We need wins not contracts.