What's up with Ceddanne?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Except Rafaela has been more than a 1 WAR player.

1.2 fWAR per 160

3.0 bWAR per 160.

He was 0.9 last season in 152 games. He won't play 160 this year either and projecting him off a small sample size seems silly at this point. The fWAR calc doesn't project out like that. In his career, 202 G, 1.4 fWAR. That's all we can go by. If you want to extrapolate those career numbers out to per 160, it gets you to 1.1 fWAR. 

[Bellhorn04]

bWAR treats him vastly better.

And thereby hangs a tale.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

bWAR treats him vastly better.

And thereby hangs a tale.

But what's the $ value of bWAR vs fWAR? And why is his bWAR from last year almost 2 wins higher than over on FanGraphs? 

I don't want to go down this crooked path today. 🤧

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He was 0.9 last season in 152 games. He won't play 160 this year either and projecting him off a small sample size seems silly at this point. The fWAR calc doesn't project out like that. In his career, 202 G, 1.4 fWAR. That's all we can go by. If you want to extrapolate those career numbers out to per 160, it gets you to 1.1 fWAR. 

I didn't call him a 1 WAR player. I just responded to him being called one.

BTW, 1.4/202 is not equal to 1.1/160. Not trying to nitpick, but just responding.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I didn't call him a 1 WAR player. I just responded to him being called one.

BTW, 1.4/202 is not equal to 1.1/160. Not trying to nitpick, but just responding.

Yes it is.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes it is.

My bad. 1.11.

bWAR would be 2.38.

[Bellhorn04]

bWAR, what is it good for?

It's very good for Ceddanne Rafaela!

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

My bad. 1.11.

bWAR would be 2.38.

Just remember who the accountants are on here, buddy… These green visors aren’t for show. My 10 key time is legit.

[Kimmi]

On 4/22/2025 at 7:25 PM, mvp 78 said:

I had the same question the day the deal was signed. He needs to exceed expectations to make the deal worthwhile for the Sox.

What I'm saying is that if the Sox hadn't extended him, and he exceeds expectations, people would be criticizing the FO for not extending him.

No one knows how these things are going to work out.  It's a risk worth taking, IMO.  Also, IMO, it was a good deal.  I think his defense alone pretty much makes it worth it.  I agree that he needs to show a little more on offense.  Honestly, I was rather surprised when I returned to this site and read the posts about Rafaela not being worth the contract.

[Kimmi]

On 4/23/2025 at 8:25 AM, Hitch said:

I was thinking this exact thing last night as Casas scuffled again before the big hit - if we'd signed him to an extension (and a meaty one at that), the complaints would be pouring in right now. 

There's a relatively simple idea that baseball fans in particular need to be more comfortable with than most sports fans I believe - you can make the right decision and still get the wrong outcome.

Revisionism can be a real pain in the arse in this sport. Mainly because fans in general have very short memories.

That is so true about making the right decision and getting the wrong outcome, both on the business side of things and with game situations.  I've also seen plenty of in game decisions that were "bad" decisions, but they ended with a good outcome.

When they work, whether it's a good decision or not, it makes the involved parties look like geniuses.  When they don't work, not so much.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

What I'm saying is that if the Sox hadn't extended him, and he exceeds expectations, people would be criticizing the FO for not extending him.

No one knows how these things are going to work out.  It's a risk worth taking, IMO.  Also, IMO, it was a good deal.  I think his defense alone pretty much makes it worth it.  I agree that he needs to show a little more on offense.  Honestly, I was rather surprised when I returned to this site and read the posts about Rafaela not being worth the contract.

I agree, and think of it this way: if we hadn't extended him, I think many would be saying his offense still has upside promise and that his defense looks A1.

I'm not sure how long a leash he gets on his offense, but he doesn't start making more than $2.3M until 2027. For all we know, he may not be around, then (gone or traded,) but he has a lot of time to bring up his offense to match his pay.

[Kimmi]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, and think of it this way: if we hadn't extended him, I think many would be saying his offense still has upside promise and that his defense looks A1.

I'm not sure how long a leash he gets on his offense, but he doesn't start making more than $2.3M until 2027. For all we know, he may not be around, then (gone or traded,) but he has a lot of time to bring up his offense to match his pay.

As people have said before, neither Rafaela nor his contract is the problem.  

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

As people have said before, neither Rafaela nor his contract is the problem.  

I really like Rafaela and am far from giving up on his offense.

I love great D, especially up the middle. That being said, I'm not sure how bad an offense is supported by his reat D, decent base running  and position flexibility.

I used to think .700, but maybe .650 or .675 is enough, these days.

I'm also a big fan of Anthony and think he should/will be a big success in MLB. He's not bad on D, and I like Duran's CF D, as well, so I'm torn.

 

[Kimmi]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Rafaela and am far from giving up on his offense.

I love great D, especially up the middle. That being said, I'm not sure how bad an offense is supported by his reat D, decent base running  and position flexibility.

I used to think .700, but maybe .650 or .675 is enough, these days.

I'm also a big fan of Anthony and think he should/will be a big success in MLB. He's not bad on D, and I like Duran's CF D, as well, so I'm torn.

 

It's understandable to want Anthony on the team right now.  I get it.  Anthony will get his chance soon enough.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

It's understandable to want Anthony on the team right now.  I get it.  Anthony will get his chance soon enough.

Our worst positions, offensively, are C, 1B and CF.

Our top prospects play OF and middle IF. None are catchers or 1Bmen, so that puts the squeeze on Rafaela and Refsnyder.

We are 28th in catcher OPS at a really bad .513 clip. The defense is much better, so to me we can handle one black hole, if it's at catcher. .513 is 81 points below #15.

We are 23rd in 1B OPS at .595, which is mayb e worse than .513 at catcher, especially since Casas is an awful defender. .595 is 97 behind the #15 team.

We are 19th in CF OPS at .638, which is just 46 behind #15. That's one big game away from being right in the missle. The great D makes it acceptable, on paper, but when you have 3 players significantly under their positional norm or mean, I can't help but think we should try to upgrade one of the three slots.

This is not the time of the year major trades are made, so we look at options within the system, and Anthony jumps out at us, both out of a positional upgrade need and the fact that he's the top prospect in the nation and widely regarded as ML ready.

I have been a fierce defender of keeping Refsnyder starting vs every lefty we face, but even I am willing to allow Rafaela playing as Abreu's platoon, starting some games as Duran and Anthony need rest, and also becoming the number one back-up at SS, 2B and maybe even 3B. If someone could move to 1B, we coudl find even more time for Rafaela, but I don't see Bregman, Campbell, Story, Duran or Abreu playing there. (Maybe Ref coudl replace Romy as the 1B platoon, but Cora has yet to play him at 1B, so that is not likely an option.)

With injuries bound to happen. I think things might work themselves out on their own.

 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, Kimmi said:

What I'm saying is that if the Sox hadn't extended him, and he exceeds expectations, people would be criticizing the FO for not extending him.

No one knows how these things are going to work out.  It's a risk worth taking, IMO.  Also, IMO, it was a good deal.  I think his defense alone pretty much makes it worth it.  I agree that he needs to show a little more on offense.  Honestly, I was rather surprised when I returned to this site and read the posts about Rafaela not being worth the contract.

There are more people on this site saying it's a good deal than I've seen anywhere else. Even the SoxProspects guys think the deal was unnecessary. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, and think of it this way: if we hadn't extended him, I think many would be saying his offense still has upside promise and that his defense looks A1.

I'm not sure how long a leash he gets on his offense, but he doesn't start making more than $2.3M until 2027. For all we know, he may not be around, then (gone or traded,) but he has a lot of time to bring up his offense to match his pay.

Now you have a 6AAV guy for the life of the contract going against the CBT with a notoriously cheap ownership. Why? It just doesn't make sense if you're betting on upside for a guy who is glove first. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Now you have a 6AAV guy for the life of the contract going against the CBT with a notoriously cheap ownership. Why? It just doesn't make sense if you're betting on upside for a guy who is glove first. 

Sure, but thats not exactly mutually exclusive with what Kimmi/Moon are saying.

I understand your position that player-types have varying market values and defense first guys generally dont command the same dollars, and just looking at WAR/$ can be misleading because it matters how that WAR is being generated (from a replaceability perspective, from a market value perspective). You can look at the deal and be puzzled.

But this does not necessarily mean that a) the best move at this point in time is to move Cedanne (not implying you are saying this) or b) that had we not extended him, the lack of extension would have been criticized too (fair or unfair)

[drewski6]

MVP, with all due respect - I think you are overestimating how much $6m/yr buys you these days.  A defensive fourth OF for $6m/yr may be an asset.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, but thats not exactly mutually exclusive with what Kimmi/Moon are saying.

I understand your position that player-types have varying market values and defense first guys generally dont command the same dollars, and just looking at WAR/$ can be misleading because it matters how that WAR is being generated (from a replaceability perspective, from a market value perspective). You can look at the deal and be puzzled.

But this does not necessarily mean that a) the best move at this point in time is to move Cedanne (not implying you are saying this) or b) that had we not extended him, the lack of extension would have been criticized too (fair or unfair)

I don't really care what they do with Rafaela. Trade him, bench him, make him the starting CFer. 

I also don't think people would be screaming about an extension for him as nobody is really upset over a lack of an extension for Hamilton, Slaten, Casas, Crawford, Houck, Abreu, etc. Wilyer has outperformed Rafaela since being called up in '23 and not one person has questioned the lack of extension. Using bWAR (favorable to Rafaela), Abreu has a career 5.5 war while Ceddanne is at 3.6. Where are the Wilyer Warriors banging the drum on getting this extension signed? He's a great defender AND mashes! 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

MVP, with all due respect - I think you are overestimating how much $6m/yr buys you these days.  A defensive fourth OF for $6m/yr may be an asset.

It doesn't matter what it buys you on the open market, the Sox didn't have to spend it. 

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't really care what they do with Rafaela. Trade him, bench him, make him the starting CFer. 

I also don't think people would be screaming about an extension for him as nobody is really upset over a lack of an extension for Hamilton, Slaten, Casas, Crawford, Houck, Abreu, etc. Wilyer has outperformed Rafaela since being called up in '23 and not one person has questioned the lack of extension. Using bWAR (favorable to Rafaela), Abreu has a career 5.5 war while Ceddanne is at 3.6. Where are the Wilyer Warriors banging the drum on getting this extension signed? He's a great defender AND mashes! 

Fair enough on your points re: your doubt that people would be questioning why no question had one not been given.

My main point is this: "I don't really care what they do with Rafaela. Trade him, bench him, make him the starting CFer." 

A guy you can live with at CF for $6m just doesnt scream like "why would they do this?"

ALso - I understand you saying that they are cheap and youd rather have the 6m in that context. But sometimes its what you buy that makes you cheap - you arent not cheap just because you bought something.

For example, my gal called me cheap for buying a cellphone that wasnt an iphone or a samsung. Still cost me $400. Im not cheap, but this was a cheap purchase (even though i spent $400) because the alternative was a more expensive phone.

I dont care what BTV says (and Im not even sure what it says) thats not a hard to move contract or a negative value contract. Someone would take it and give you something for it.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fair enough on your points re: your doubt that people would be questioning why no question had one not been given.

My main point is this: "I don't really care what they do with Rafaela. Trade him, bench him, make him the starting CFer." 

A guy you can live with at CF for $6m just doesnt scream like "why would they do this?"

ALso - I understand you saying that they are cheap and youd rather have the 6m in that context. But sometimes its what you buy that makes you cheap - you arent not cheap just because you bought something.

For example, my gal called me cheap for buying a cellphone that wasnt an iphone or a samsung. Still cost me $400. Im not cheap, but this was a cheap purchase (even though i spent $400) because the alternative was a more expensive phone.

I dont care what BTV says (and Im not even sure what it says) thats not a hard to move contract or a negative value contract. Someone would take it and give you something for it.

So what kind of phone did you buy?

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My main point is this: "I don't really care what they do with Rafaela. Trade him, bench him, make him the starting CFer." 

A guy you can live with at CF for $6m just doesnt scream like "why would they do this?"

ALso - I understand you saying that they are cheap and youd rather have the 6m in that context. But sometimes its what you buy that makes you cheap - you arent not cheap just because you bought something.

He was already on the roster and was highly unlikely to make more than his extension via arbitration. I just don't see the reason now for the extension and didn't see the reasoning back then aside from "hey fans, we're trying." However, Bello's makes sense due to the rising cost in pitcher salaries. I think simply extending Bello would have been enough for fans. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So what kind of phone did you buy?

haha, motorola

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He was already on the roster and was highly unlikely to make more than his extension via arbitration. I just don't see the reason now for the extension and didn't see the reasoning back then aside from "hey fans, we're trying." However, Bello's makes sense due to the rising cost in pitcher salaries. I think simply extending Bello would have been enough for fans. 

Thats fair, I dont remember my reaction to the extension. I think I remember being a little puzzled.

My only point is all salaries are rising. Understood defense first position players may not be at the same pace as pitchers, but I think that inflation is undeniable and needs to be considered and may be one of the reasons they extended him.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

haha, motorola

Do you like it?

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats fair, I dont remember my reaction to the extension. I think I remember being a little puzzled.

My only point is all salaries are rising. Understood defense first position players may not be at the same pace as pitchers, but I think that inflation is undeniable and needs to be considered and may be one of the reasons they extended him.

I'm only vocal about this position at the moment as I was called out for it a few weeks ago. If someone believes it is a good extension, great! It doesn't bother me. It bothers some other posters that I don't think it was a good extension though. 

Now I'm going to say some nice things about Ceddanne:

813 OPS last 13 G

Hard Hit % up to 43.7 

Barrelling the ball more

EV is up

xBA, xSLG, xWOBA all are career highs

His best OPS months last season were May, June and July. 

5/20-8/21: 773 OPS

I think there's a chance he goes on a nice little streak here as he's playing about as well as he ever has and the underlying metrics show it. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Now you have a 6AAV guy for the life of the contract going against the CBT with a notoriously cheap ownership. Why? It just doesn't make sense if you're betting on upside for a guy who is glove first. 

I totally get your point. I think they felt his offense would improve to a point where he earned the money. That may be just be a .700 to .725 OPS over his last few higher paying seasons.

He could reach those marks.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally get your point. I think they felt his offense would improve to a point where he earned the money. That may be just be a .700 to .725 OPS over his last few higher paying seasons.

He could reach those marks.

The point of an extension isn't "to earn the money." The point of the extension is so that the player isn't able to leave after arbitration. If he's hitting 750 with great defense, the Sox could still afford to re-sign Ceddanne when FA comes around without much trouble. He's not getting a max contract.