Article: Why the Red Sox Think Kristian Campbell Is Ready

[Davy Andrews]

Breaking down the reasons the Red Sox didn't let an ugly spring training dissuade them from breaking camp with Kristian Campbell.

Sunday’s news that highly-ranked prospect Kristian Campbell will be breaking camp with the Red Sox, presumably as the starting second baseman, answered one of the team's most pressing questions. It also raised some big questions. It’s still somewhat surprising, both because of Campbell’s inexperience and because the Red Sox didn’t have to make this move. They had a perfectly solid placeholder in David Hamilton. Yes, Hamilton is better suited to a bench role, but he showed last year that he can absolutely fill in and provide league-average production as an everyday second baseman. This wasn’t a move made out of desperation. The team clearly thinks that Campbell is ready for a shot. So let’s talk about why.

Campbell’s batting performance during spring training was undeniably bad. He batted .167 and struck out more than 30% of the time. He ended with a wRC+ of just 59, meaning he was 41% worse than a league-average hitter. As a frame of reference, the worst wRC+ put up by a qualified hitter during the 2024 season was 10 points higher than that. A 59 wRC+ is catastrophically bad. However, there are some encouraging signs to be found; you just really have to be looking for them.

Although Campbell’s strikeout rate was ugly, he also walked an excellent 17% of the time and ran a solid 26% line drive rate. Moreover, his .233 BABIP was extremely low. In the short sample size of spring training, getting unlucky on a few balls that should’ve fallen in for hits is enough to make you look much worse than you really are. Campbell also hit well during the Spring Breakout (homering, as did Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer), but those games didn’t count toward official spring training stats. Most important is that Campbell looked better as the spring went on, making better swing decision and hitting the ball harder. Just ask Alex Cora, who told reporters, “I saw some underlying numbers and he’s trending in the right direction and he’s hitting the ball hard and not chasing. He’s a good hitter.” Campbell started out 1-for-17 and ended going 7-for-31. That’s still not great, but it’s definitely an improvement.

Because JetBlue Park isn’t set up for Statcast, Campbell hit just 12 balls that were tracked, but he recorded a 58% hard-hit rate and 92.4 average exit velocity on them. That’s a tiny sample size, but it’s encouraging because those are excellent numbers. Among Red Sox players with at least 10 tracked balls in play, Campell’s hard-hit rate ranked second (behind spring training god Trayce Thompson) and his exit velocity ranked third (behind Thompson and Anthony).

Lastly, Campbell’s defense was impressive throughout the spring. He made several highlight plays both at second and other stops on his grand defensive tour of JetBlue Park. Campbell doesn’t necessarily have a solid defensive position just yet, which is one of the reasons the Red Sox moved him all over the diamond. He’ll almost certainly make some ugly mistakes as the team’s everyday second basemen. He’s an athlete and he’ll improve, but it might not always be pretty because he'll be learning the finer points not in the relative anonymity of the minors but in Boston in front of a whole lot of eyeballs.

So those are the reasons for optimism. As previously mentioned, you really have to dig for them. That said, it’s important to remember that Campbell had already given the Red Sox some excellent reasons to dig. It starts with his performance over the last two seasons. Simply put, Campbell has never failed to hit at any stop in the minors. Here are the wRC+ marks he put up at each stop along the way, starting at the complex league and ending in Worcester: 189, 132, 173, 197, 139. What those very high numbers mean is that at his very worst, Campbell was still 32% better than the league-average hitter. That’s how you rack up awards and vault into a consensus top-10 prospect in the game. Moreover, keep in mind that Campbell was raking like this while in the middle of a pretty serious overhaul to his swing. The Red Sox changed his batting stance and swing path and had him undergoing training to improve hit bat speed. That’s a lot to relearn, and somehow, none of it even caused him to slow down a bit. For comparison, I’d point you to Alex Bregman, who undertook a weighted bat program last offseason and faced enormous struggles during the early months as he tried to adapt his new swing to actual game action. Here’s how Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs, who ranked Campbell the seventh-best prospect in baseball, described Campbell’s offense:

Quote

[Th]ere isn’t a pitch type, location, or velocity threshold where you really encounter a red flag….He crushes mistakes in the middle of the plate and squibs hard-hit contact around the diamond on pitches closer to the edges of the zone. And unlike a lot of the powerless college bat-control mavens who go on Day Two of the draft, Campbell isn’t undersized or unathletic; he’s a strapping 6-foot-3 guy with explosive rotational athleticism. This isn’t a skills-over-tools type who fails to check the physical scouting boxes; this is a projectable athlete who has only played high-level baseball for two seasons.

Campbell is going to struggle in Boston. Even after the changes the Red Sox implemented, his swing is still unorthodox, and it will likely look bad at times. Maybe he’ll struggle right away as he did in spring training, and maybe it will happen later, but there’s simply no way he won’t face serious struggles against big-league pitching. He’s 22 years old and he’s barely played at all in Triple-A. In fact, he’s played just 75 total games above Single-A! That’s not even half a season. This is an aggressive promotion, and there’s no guarantee that it will work. However, if the Red Sox really do feel that Campbell is ready, and are willing to let him figure some things out in Boston, it’s absolutely the right move.

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[mvp 78]

If the Sox are so data driven, why isn't JetBlue set up for Statcast? Or do you think the Sox have internal means to measure and aren't worried about sharing? 

[Hugh2]

So Campbell made the team before Mayer and Anthony just as I predicted.  I poke at Notin, I had to have my fun. 

Honestly, a tad just a wee bit surprised.  I agree with the last 4 sentences to a T.  I figured the Sox may use Campbells struggles as a reason to give him just a little bit more seasoning in AAA and see if Hamilton/Grissom could figure things out. 

I was a little late to the Campbell bandwagon because I read into the scouting reports about his unorthodox swing and the pessimism that created.   But last year he slowly turned all his doubters into believers and a lot of those concerns have been eased. 

Nothing is guaranteed in this life, and you're not a good mlb player until you're a good mlb player.  But you have to love the trajectory this kid is on. 

[moonslav59]

Let's hope Campbell's hot time in Mexico carries over to the start of the season.

I can't believe we are so close to opening day!

[moonslav59]

Here are a couple questions:

1. What batting slot will Campbell have in August?

2. If he plays mostly 2B, where will he end up ranked out of the 30 2Bmen with the most innings at 2B?

(I wanna say 2nd for Q1, but I'm going with 5th. I'm going to guess 14th on D.)

[Larry Cook]

I will admit, I did not see Campbell starting the year in Boston. But I hope he has a great season! I think he made the team because: 
1.) he bats right handed. Hamilton and Mayer bat left handed! 
2.) his path to Boston was very clean. Romy is hurt. Bergman needs to play 3B. (Devers should never wear a fielding glove again between the white lines.) 
 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I will admit, I did not see Campbell starting the year in Boston. But I hope he has a great season! I think he made the team because: 
1.) he bats right handed. Hamilton and Mayer bat left handed! 
2.) his path to Boston was very clean. Romy is hurt. Bergman needs to play 3B. (Devers should never wear a fielding glove again between the white lines.) 
 

I'd still like to see how Devers would compare to Casas at 1B defense... someday. Maybe, next year.

[Bellhorn04]

It's early but all of the big 3 have shown their potential to be the real deal this spring.   

[Larry Cook]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's early but all of the big 3 have shown their potential to be the real deal this spring.   

These 2 games in Mexico, I thought Mayer was outstanding. 
Let’s hope he does well at Worcester 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

These 2 games in Mexico, I thought Mayer was outstanding. 
Let’s hope he does well at Worcester 

Mayer looks pretty darn close to ready.  Anthony might be ready too.  It's just a matter of how making room for them comes about.   

[Larry Cook]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Mayer looks pretty darn close to ready.  Anthony might be ready too.  It's just a matter of how making room for them comes about.   

Story has to be hearing footsteps behind him!!!!

[moonslav59]

I wonder if any team would be interested in Story, assuming we pay some cash or take back a big contract to balance the cost out.

Notin mentioned a Story for Murphy trade, a while back. That would greatly improve our catching while giving mayer and instant shot at the SS job. The problem is what if he struggles?

We owe Story something like $77M/3, and Murphy is owed $60M/4. His tax hit is just $12.2 a year, which is half Story's. How about Story + $6M a year and Wong for Murphy?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's early but all of the big 3 have shown their potential to be the real deal this spring.   

Mayer's biggest issue has been staying healthy. Looking good on the field hasn't really been a problem for him. He's always been a smooth defender and can demolish RHP. 

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Story has to be hearing footsteps behind him!!!!

I'm rooting for Story this year, but another injury and his career is basically over. 

The best thing for the Sox is for Story to hit like 2019 and opt out or be traded.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's early but all of the big 3 have shown their potential to be the real deal this spring.   

Have to give credit to management for going with Campbell and trying to finally stabilize what has been a problem area since Machado's dirty slide. The Sox could've easily gone with another platoon -- Hamilton's arguably been their best player this Spring -- and sent KC down for more control. Instead, they chose him from the Big Three to win Rookie of the Year and get the org another draft pick.

I don't expect a great start for the club, though, until the rotation is fully healthy (if ever) and the bullpen sorts itself out. Gotta also be patient while Devers, Abreu and maybe even Story ease back into their grooves. 

Most posters watching the majority of these preseason games have to agree this team looks best when all of the Big Three are in the line-up. Mayer and Anthony should be called up as soon as the Sox secure that extra year of control... then let's see where we're at by Memorial Day.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Have to give credit to management for going with Campbell and trying to finally stabilize what has been a problem area since Machado's dirty slide. The Sox could've easily gone with another platoon -- Hamilton's arguably been their best player this Spring -- and sent KC down for more control. Instead, they chose him from the Big Three to win Rookie of the Year and get the org another draft pick.

I don't expect a great start for the club, though, until the rotation is fully healthy (if ever) and the bullpen sorts itself out. Gotta also be patient while Devers, Abreu and maybe even Story ease back into their grooves. 

Most posters watching the majority of these preseason games have to agree this team looks best when all of the Big Three are in the line-up. Mayer and Anthony should be called up as soon as the Sox secure that extra year of control... then let's see where we're at by Memorial Day.

It might depend on how well or poorly, Rafaela, Abreu and Story are doing, too. (Health, too.)