A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

Of course I would love to move ahead of the Yankees and the Blue Jays, but the most important number right now is the 5-game lead we have over Texas to stay in the playoffs.  With 18 games remaining, if we play .500 ball, that would give us 88 wins.  Texas would have to win 14 of 18 games to tie, in which case they would have the advantage because of the head to head record against us.

The Red Sox are in pretty good shape.  That said, stranger things have happened.  Please Red Sox, no September collapse.

Yes, making the playoffs is the first priority, especially after making it just once since 2018. That's once in 6 seasons, and this is season 7.

That being said, we play NYY & TOR, and so we have a real say in our chances at winning the division and perhaps skipping the first round of playoffs. 

That is a worthy secondary goal. Of course, the goal is to take one game at a time and doing our best to win as many as we can, at least until that game result no longer matters, if ever.

[moonslav59]

3 GB TOR

2.5 DET

1.0 NYY

+1.5 HOU

+3.5 SEA (last WC)

+5.0 TEX (on the outside, now.)

We have the 8th best record in all MLB:

-0.5 LAD for 7th

-1.0 NYY for 6th

-1.5 CHC for 5th (The Sox are 1.5 games away from a top 5 team!)

[mvp 78]

Playoff odds:

TEX 18%

CLE 8%

They haven't been making up any ground. As the days roll on by, it gets less and less likely the Sox miss out on the playoffs this year unless they really take a swoon. Sox were 6.5 up on TBR in 2011 today. It would take that kind of collapse at this point. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Playoff odds:

TEX 18%

CLE 8%

They haven't been making up any ground. As the days roll on by, it gets less and less likely the Sox miss out on the playoffs this year unless they really take a swoon. Sox were 6.5 up on TBR in 2011 today. It would take that kind of collapse at this point. 

Can't see it. In 2011, the pitching completely fell apart.

The '11 starters were epically bad in September: Lackey 9.13 ERA, Beckett 5.48, Lester 5.40, Wakefield 5.25... and then there was stud reliever Daniel Bard -- 10.64. Even Pap was toast by the end, blowing the last game (with a little help from Crawl Cawful).

[moonslav59]

I'm looking more at the teams ahead of us than those behind us. All those teams have weak areas and have struggled at some point is the last month or two (or three.)

People point to the Astros as a model organization, and rightfully so, but only COL has a higher chase rate, and ATH have a lower pitches seen per PA that they do, this year.

I think HOU is 25th in runs scored.

 

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, making the playoffs is the first priority, especially after making it just once since 2018. That's once in 6 seasons, and this is season 7.

That being said, we play NYY & TOR, and so we have a real say in our chances at winning the division and perhaps skipping the first round of playoffs. 

That is a worthy secondary goal. Of course, the goal is to take one game at a time and doing our best to win as many as we can, at least until that game result no longer matters, if ever.

I agree with everything you posted here.

It would be really nice to overtake the Yankees and the Blue Jays.  Tough task, but not impossible.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Kimmi said:

I agree with everything you posted here.

It would be really nice to overtake the Yankees and the Blue Jays.  Tough task, but not impossible.

We may be able to pass them by going 2-1 vs both. A sweep or one and 2-1 vs the others gives us plus odds on passing one. I'm not getting ahead of myself. That won't be easy to do. We could go 1-5 vs the two.

I wish they played each other before the final game but too bad they don't.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Playoff odds:

TEX 18%

CLE 8%

They haven't been making up any ground. As the days roll on by, it gets less and less likely the Sox miss out on the playoffs this year unless they really take a swoon. Sox were 6.5 up on TBR in 2011 today. It would take that kind of collapse at this point. 

If the Red Sox have another collapse like that, I might have to retire from baseball fandom.  

[Kimmi]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We may be able to pass them by going 2-1 vs both. A sweep or one and 2-1 vs the others gives us plus odds on passing one. I'm not getting ahead of myself. That won't be easy to do. We could go 1-5 vs the two.

I wish they played each other before the final game but too bad they don't.

Yeah, we can't get ahead of ourselves.  We need to take care of business against the As first.  As they say, one game at a time.

How nice it is to be playing meaningful baseball in September.

[Hitch]

I'm not remotely worried about missing the playoffs. We'll be there. 

I'm desperate for us to get that home series in the wildcard, though.

If we had everyone healthy, I'd fancy us to nab the division, but pretty unlikely right now.

But no concerns over getting there.

[moonslav59]

I'm looking at winning the division and being a top 2 seed for the first round bye.

If that goal becomes too remote, I'll start looking at the next wish- home field in the WC series. Hopefully one of these wishes is alive to the end, or we clinch one earlier.

If it comes down to making the playoffs or not, I'm not thinking about it. If we ever end up real close, that would suck.

[moonslav59]

I cherry picked the date, but still...

AL since June 30th: (about 60 games)

39-21 BOS (23-14 in last 37)

37-23 TOR (23-14)

34-26 KCR (21-16)

34-27 TEX (19-19)

33-28 SEA (19-18) & CLE (16-11)

32-28 NYY (23-14)

32-27 ATH (20-16)

30-30 BAL (18-19)

29-30 DET (20-16)

28-32 HOU (18-19)

27-33 CWS (16-21)

26-35 LAA (15-22)

24-36 MIN (13-25)

24-35 TBR (17-19)

Since AUG 21st

12-5 TEX

12-6 BOS

11-6 NYY

10-6 TBR

10-7 CWS

8-7 TOR

9-8 HOU & CLE

8-8 SEA

8-9 KCR & ATH

7-10 BAL

6-9 DET (collapse?)

6-11 LAA

6-12 MIN

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Rookies who played this year for the Sox

K Campbell .664 OPS in 284 PAs (AAA)

C Narvaez (6 gms w NYY in '24)

R Fitts 5.00 in 45 IP on IL (4 starts in '24)

H Dobbins 4.13 in 61 IP (IL)

L Guerrero 4.15 in 17.1 IP on IL  (10 IP in '24)

R Anthony .859 OPS in 303 PAs (IL)

M Mayer .674 in 136 PAs (IL)

Jh Garcia .619 in 9 PAs (AAA)

P Tolle 7.56 in 8.1 IP

C Early 0.00 in 5IP

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Rookies who played this year for the Sox

P Tolle 7.56 in 8.1 IP

C Early 0.00 in 5IP

Last night early did not have great command of his fastball, which rendered his nasty change up less effective. And he hardly threw the change up last night. 
 

let’s hope the fastball command is back on his next start. 
 

meanwhile Mullins is still in Portland??? 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Last night early did not have great command of his fastball, which rendered his nasty change up less effective. And he hardly threw the change up last night. 
 

let’s hope the fastball command is back on his next start. 
 

meanwhile Mullins is still in Portland??? 

Mullins started this year in GRE and carries significant injury risk. I think they are intentionally going slow with him. 

[mvp 78]

Mullins's career notes from SP:

Has battled injuries throughout his career. Was highly regarded out of high school, ranked as high as the top 50 in the 2019 draft class at times, but opted to attend Auburn after an injury-plagued senior spring caused his stock to fall. His sophomore and junior college seasons both ended prematurely due to injury, the latter resulting in Tommy John surgery. Did not make his professional debut until August 2023 after rehabbing from the procedure. Missed much of May 2025 with shoulder fatigue after an early-season promotion to Portland.

This section is not usually just a download of injuries and reasoning as to why a guy has missed extended time.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Last night early did not have great command of his fastball, which rendered his nasty change up less effective. And he hardly threw the change up last night. 
 

let’s hope the fastball command is back on his next start. 
 

meanwhile Mullins is still in Portland??? 

POR's season ends Sunday. I still don't get why Mullins never got the call to WOO.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

POR's season ends Sunday. I still don't get why Mullins never got the call to WOO.

Maybe they are being extra careful with him 

[moonslav59]

TOR & NYY lost.

We coulda, shoulda....

[Larry Cook]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

TOR & NYY lost.

We coulda, shoulda....

A .500 road trip beats a losing road trip 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

POR's season ends Sunday. I still don't get why Mullins never got the call to WOO.

At this point, it's only a few appearances. Not sure it's a big deal. Maybe trying to hide him from evaluators and models? IDK. 

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

TOR & NYY lost.

We coulda, shoulda....

Flip side - it'd be worse if they won.  

[Bellhorn04]

Rangers are really hot now.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At this point, it's only a few appearances. Not sure it's a big deal. Maybe trying to hide him from evaluators and models? IDK. 

I mentioned that, too.

If he goes unprotected and unselected, maybe it will look more like a reason.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Flip side - it'd be worse if they won.  

So, true.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rangers are really hot now.

'25 Sox - 4 games up on TEX

'11 Sox - 5.5 games up on TBR

Sox just need to keep doing their thing and go 9-6 or 8-7. 95% chance of playoffs per FanGraphs.

TEX next 6: NYM/HOU

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Texas has just as good as chance to oust Seattle, Houston or New York from the playoffs as Boston, who has more wins than all of them.

[moonslav59]

 

The Final 5 for the final 6:

BOS: 3 NYY, 3ATH, 3 at TBR, 3 at TOR, 3 DET (Not an easy ending)

NYY: (DET today) 3 at BOS, 3 at MIN, 4 at BAL, 3 CWS, 3 BAL (after BOS, the easiest)

TOR: (HOU today) 3 BAL, 4 at TBR, 3 at KCR, 3 BOS, 3 TBR (kinda middle)

DET: (@NYY today) 3 at MIA, 3 CLE, 3 ATL, 3 at CLE, 3 at BOS (Not easy)

SEA: 4 LAA,  3 at KCR, 3 at HOU, 3 COL, 3 LAD (Not easy at all.)

HOU: (@TOR today) 3 at ATL, 3 TEX, 3 SEA, 3 at ATH, 3 at LAA (next 10 are tough)

_________________________________________________

Longshots:

TEX: 3 at NYM, 3 at HOU, 3 MIA, 3 MIN, 3 at CLE (pretty tough)

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Texas has just as good as chance to oust Seattle, Houston or New York from the playoffs as Boston, who has more wins than all of them.

I agree. I'm worried about the Sox getting into the playoffs, not the other teams. 

If the Sox go 8-7 or better, they should get in. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

The Final 5 for the final 6:

BOS: 3 NYY, 3ATH, 3 at TBR, 3 at TOR, 3 DET (Not an easy ending)

NYY: (DET today) 3 at BOS, 3 at MIN, 4 at BAL, 3 CWS, 3 BAL (after BOS, the easiest)

TOR: (HOU today) 3 BAL, 4 at TBR, 3 at KCR, 3 BOS, 3 TBR (kinda middle)

DET: (@NYY today) 3 at MIA, 3 CLE, 3 ATL, 3 at CLE, 3 at BOS (Not easy)

SEA: 4 LAA,  3 at KCR, 3 at HOU, 3 COL, 3 LAD (Not easy at all.)

HOU: (@TOR today) 3 at ATL, 3 TEX, 3 SEA, 3 at ATH, 3 at LAA (next 10 are tough)

_________________________________________________

Longshots:

TEX: 3 at NYM, 3 at HOU, 3 MIA, 3 MIN, 3 at CLE (pretty tough)

NYY's cake schedule is why FanGraphs gives them a 99% playoffs chance. 

However, Sox sweep, plus 7 vs BAL isn't as easy as it looks. BAL has been pretty good if you ignore the first two months of the season or whatever. They won't rollover. Maybe BAL can pull a miracle and replicate '11 again?