A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They have absolutely been the model MLB team over the last decade, based on a combination of success and payroll management.

And, they got a guy to run the show from TBR- kinda like we did.

(He got his job with TB as a result of a Bloom recommendation.)

[moonslav59]

American League Only....

The Sox have 3 of the top 10 SP'ers (120+ IP) in ERA-. We also have 2 of the top 10 RP'ers (50+IP) in ERA-.

23 Chapman (nearly half the next guy!) 2.3 fWAR 1st

42 Cleavinger

44 Munoz

49 Vasil

50 Hader (IL)

55 Newcomb (remember him?)

56 Abreu

58 Armstrong

59 Whitlock (#9) He's 5th in IP by RP'ers (1.7 fWAR is 4th)

Does any other team have a better 1-2-3 SP and 1-2 RP quintet?

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox have the best record in the AL since June 7th. That's nearly 3 months.

Here are some numbers:

9-1 Giolito 2.26

9-5 Bello 2.68

9-1 Crochet 3.27

Chapman 0.31 ERA & Whitlock 1.67 ERA

OPS Leaders 99+ PAs

.867 Story

.860 Romy

.859 Anthony (IL)

.822 Abreu (IL)

.815 Duran

.808 Refsnyder

.740 Bregman

.731 Rafaela

.676 Narvaez

.654 Yoshida

.567 Wong

(DHam .613 in 84 PAs)

[notin]

14 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What’s the Sox record vs LAA?

1-5.  You’re right.  That clearly makes the Dodgers the superior team and not overrated at all…

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought the conversation was about the 2021 trade deadline deals.

Was it?  I responded to a seemingly blanket statement about traded Braves prospects.  I wouldn’t expect the Braves to give up anything good while acquiring fungible salary dumps like Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. 
 

If you only meant that brief period, I will tell Mr. Langeliers to back off…

[mvp 78]

Masa to the minors when? 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Masa to the minors when? 

Masa for Senga when? December!

🤪

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Masa to the minors when? 

When Anthony and Abreu return?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

When Anthony and Abreu return?

Maybe when the first one returns, assuming it's 2025.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe when the first one returns, assuming it's 2025.

I don’t think they can afford to get rid of him before then…

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think they can afford to get rid of him before then…

Probably not. We have very few options vs RHPs, until one comes back.

DHam has been awful vs RHPs, this year, despite doing better in the past few weeks.

Romy has a short sample size of recent borderline success v R.

It looks like Jh Garcia is not being considered, and he's a RHB- like KC.

[moonslav59]

I think the next time we need a SP'er, we should call up Harrison and see what he can do for us. (Demote Murphy- the BB King. Like that one?)

These opener games have gone okay for us, this year, but we were pushing our luck and burning out the pen.

I'd also call up Jh Garcia and demote Eaton.

[moonslav59]

10 guys on the 60 Day and 6 on the shorter ILs.

60 Day: Houck, Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Winckowski, Hendriks, Perales, Guerrero, Casas & Mayer. (Guerrero is rehabbing: the rest are done.)

10-15 Day: Anthony, Abreu, Fitts, Criswell, Hicks & Grissom.

We have just 5 healthy players, not counting Guerrero, on the 40 and in the minors: Harrison, Jh Garcia, K Campbell, Moran & I Campbell.

Possible players that could be added by DFA'ing someone or moving an injured player to the 60 Day (like Grissom, Criswell or Hicks):

SP: Early, Uberstine (Rule 5)

RP: Sandlin (Rule 5 but doing poorly) Burdi

1B/3B Toro

2B/3B Romero

DH Hickey (Rule 5 and on a hot streak)

[Randy Red Sox]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably not. We have very few options vs RHPs, until one comes back.

DHam has been awful vs RHPs, this year, despite doing better in the past few weeks.

Romy has a short sample size of recent borderline success v R.

It looks like Jh Garcia is not being considered, and he's a RHB- like KC.

i just know the current team is not near as much fun to watch as it was before Mayer and Anthony went down.

h

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i just know the current team is not near as much fun to watch as it was before Mayer and Anthony went down.

Just win, and it will be fun.

Losing both Anthony and Abreu, at the same time hurts as much as Mayer & Anthony, IMO.

Every team has injuries, so I hate crying about it, but these 3 hurt. Losing Casas and Devers before made staying healthy even more important. Losing so many SP'ers has forced us to go 12-13 deep and have pen games.

[Larry Cook]

Still winless since Anthony went on the disabled list 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Still winless since Anthony went on the disabled list 

It's like all the air was let out of the tire.

[illinoisredsox]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Still winless since Anthony went on the disabled list 

They’ve also run into a couple teams on hot streaks.  The Pirates were on a 9-3 run when they came to Boston and when they left, went home and swept the Dodgers.  (I know, that was before Anthony went down).

Arizona is currently on an 8-2 run against the Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox.

It’s not always who you play. It’s when you play them.

That being said, the bigger issue is they look lifeless.  That’s different than winless

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

They’ve also run into a couple teams on hot streaks.  The Pirates were on a 9-3 run when they came to Boston and when they left, went home and swept the Dodgers.  (I know, that was before Anthony went down).

Arizona is currently on an 8-2 run against the Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox.

It’s not always who you play. It’s when you play them.

That being said, the bigger issue is they look lifeless.  That’s different than winless

So true. There is so much luck involved in baseball, and that is one reason they play 162 games.

We need to turn this around, and quickly.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So true. There is so much luck involved in baseball, and that is one reason they play 162 games.

We need to turn this around, and quickly.

As Cora rearranges the deck chairs, there's a shortage of life rafts. Don't panic, this Sox ship will paddle into the PO's and then immediately sink. Season ticket holders and children first.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's like all the air was let out of the tire.

Unfortunately, it was the tire with the most tread left on it.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

They’ve also run into a couple teams on hot streaks.  The Pirates were on a 9-3 run when they came to Boston and when they left, went home and swept the Dodgers.  (I know, that was before Anthony went down).

Arizona is currently on an 8-2 run against the Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox.

It’s not always who you play. It’s when you play them.

That being said, the bigger issue is they look lifeless.  That’s different than winless

Very sensible.  You've said this before, but it bears repeating.  

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Very sensible.  You've said this before, but it bears repeating.  

According to the GT the Sox are playing the Angels today, so that may be a break for the Sox.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

 

That being said, the bigger issue is they look lifeless.  That’s different than winless

I think this is an accurate assessment. They just look disinterested on offense. I think bregman has checked out on us. 
 

Bregman has not been the same player since he came back from injury!!!  
 

I really hope Mayer can play a full season in 2026. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

They just look disinterested on offense. I think bregman has checked out on us. 
Bregman has not been the same player since he came back from injury!!!  
 

He was hitting the ball pretty hard for outs for a while.

I'm not sure about "Checking out," as some players just have slumps that are not related to being disinterested or checking out.

The injury may be a factor, but he should be over it by now.

Unless he starts hitting, we may not have much hope.

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He was hitting the ball pretty hard for outs for a while.

I'm not sure about "Checking out," as some players just have slumps that are not related to being disinterested or checking out.

The injury may be a factor, but he should be over it by now.

Unless he starts hitting, we may not have much hope.

Duran and Bregman have gone into a huge slumps when we really need all hands on deck 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Duran and Bregman have gone into a huge slumps when we really need all hands on deck 

There is time to snap out of it.

BTW, Duran has hit .840 in last 34 games.

.810 last 13 games.

1.014 last 6 games.

We need more slumpers like Duran.

[moonslav59]

Not bad losing 3 out of 4 and still just 3.5 from the ALE lead!

3.0 behind DET for #2 in AL.

1.5 behind the damn Yankees. (Losing ground to them sucked!)

up 1.0 on HOU.

up 3.5 on SEA

up 5.0 on WC (TEX) and 5.5 on KCR/6.0 CLE

We have the 8th best record in MLB (+0.5 on SDP)

-0.5 from LAD (7th)

[moonslav59]

The next 9 games:

BOS: 3 at ATH, (day off THU) 3 NYY (HUGE GAMES!) and 3 ATH 

NYY: (Day off MON) 3 v DET, 3 at BOS and 3 at MN

TOR: (Day off MON) 3 v HOU, 3 BAL, 4 at TBR

DET: (Day off MON) 3 at NYY, 3 at MIA, 3 v CLE

HOU: (Day off MON) 3 at TOR, 3 at ATL, 3 v TEX (then 3 v SEA)

SEA: 3 v STL, 4 v LAA, 3 at KCR (3 at SEA)

Very telling week plus, coming up.

[Kimmi]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not bad losing 3 out of 4 and still just 3.5 from the ALE lead!

3.0 behind DET for #2 in AL.

1.5 behind the damn Yankees. (Losing ground to them sucked!)

up 1.0 on HOU.

up 3.5 on SEA

up 5.0 on WC (TEX) and 5.5 on KCR/6.0 CLE

We have the 8th best record in MLB (+0.5 on SDP)

-0.5 from LAD (7th)

Of course I would love to move ahead of the Yankees and the Blue Jays, but the most important number right now is the 5-game lead we have over Texas to stay in the playoffs.  With 18 games remaining, if we play .500 ball, that would give us 88 wins.  Texas would have to win 14 of 18 games to tie, in which case they would have the advantage because of the head to head record against us.

The Red Sox are in pretty good shape.  That said, stranger things have happened.  Please Red Sox, no September collapse.