A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox averaged 35,994 every game as recently as 2019. They just have to have a good product on the field. 

Can't you just round it off?

35,990

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can't you just round it off?

35,990

Sox fan erasure??? I would never. 

[moonslav59]

One interesting fact about this 2025 team is just how much the depth has carried us in many cases.

We saw some failures, like Toro, after a nice start and DHam, until recently, as well as Newcomb and a few others on the staff, but have a look-see:

Narvaez was the back-up catcher to start the season: he is 7th in catcher fWAR at 2.6!

Toro did okay at 1B for a couple weeks, then was really bad- Lowe seems to have righted the ship.

KC was the opening day 2Bman. Mayer looked okay, but then got hurt. DHam has been awful, until recently.

Mayer did well, when Bregman got hurt.

Our DH's have not taken up the slack left by the Devers trade.

Our OF depth has been off the charts (Anthony, namely.)

Houck was our #2, Crawford maybe the #5, Dobbins the #10 or so, and Sandoval was supposed to be our 4/5 by August. Gio missed some time. We've done okay with SP'er dpeth, but traded away Priester.

Our pen depth has been sketchy, but even if you take away Chapman & Whitlock, the rest of the pen has a better ERS than our starters, as a whole.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox fan erasure??? I would never. 

When 1 is cancelled, we all are!

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox averaged 35,994 every game as recently as 2019. They just have to have a good product on the field. 

Cannot you say that about any pro sports team???

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Cannot you say that about any pro sports team???

COL puts a dreadful product on the field and they average 29,779 every game. Tampa doesn't draw no matter how good they are. Angels average over 32k!

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think just 1-2 plays can skew Story from a top 3-5 metrics gut to a 0 DRS and +1 OAA.

I would have to disagree.  Defensive metrics are very unreliable in small sample sizes.  Because there are so few defensive chances in a season (as opposed to offensive chances), one or two bad plays can greatly skew the overall rating.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I would have to disagree.  Defensive metrics are very unreliable in small sample sizes.  Because there are so few defensive chances in a season (as opposed to offensive chances), one or two bad plays can greatly skew the overall rating.

It depends on the position. Story gets almost as many combined putouts and assists per year as plate appearances. Duran gets about a third of the amount. 

[Kimmi]

8 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I have 3 other octogenarians on my softball team in NC who are also long term Red Sox fans. One of them claims it takes 600 AB's to determine the type of hitter a player will turn into. He is pretty astute so i take his input seriously. Rafaela has 1076 while Anthony has over 270. Rafaela has been a 246 average hitter who lacks plate  discipline. He's okay if his defensive prowess is linked with his offense. Anthony has been exceptional so far but is likely to have his difficulties as pitchers seek his weaknesses, but he looks like a star in the making. What do think of my friend's rule of thumb?

First of all, let me tell you again how impressed and happy I am to hear that you and your fellow octogenarians are still playing softball.  

As far as the 600 ABs to determine the type of hitter a player will turn into, that sounds like a fair number overall.  Different offensive stats require different samples sizes to "stabilize", some of which are larger than 600 ABs, others of which are smaller than 600 ABs.

Per Fangraphs, here are the stabilization points for some offensive statistics.  Note that some are given in ABs and others are given in PAs.

BA - 910 ABs

OBP - 460 PAs

SLG - 320 ABs

K rate - 60 PAs

Walk rate - 120 PAs

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Cannot you say that about any pro sports team???

How about the Rays over the years?

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I would have to disagree.  Defensive metrics are very unreliable in small sample sizes.  Because there are so few defensive chances in a season (as opposed to offensive chances), one or two bad plays can greatly skew the overall rating.

Not for a SS. Story has had over 500 chances, this year. 2 plays does not move him from a DRS or +10-15 to zero.

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It has to be because when Ceddanne is in his swing-at-every-pitch mode, no viewers can reach through our TVs and hold his arms back. And no matter how loudly we yell, "TAKE A PITCH" he can't hear us -- or worse, ignores us.

It really annoys me that the players won't listen to what I'm yelling at them.

[Kimmi]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox averaged 35,994 every game as recently as 2019. They just have to have a good product on the field. 

If the team is winning, the fans will come.  It's not about having the superstar players like Ohtani.  It's about winning.

[Kimmi]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It depends on the position. Story gets almost as many combined putouts and assists per year as plate appearances. Duran gets about a third of the amount. 

I don't disagree that shortstops typically get more chances than an outfielder.  Even so, a couple of bad plays can skew defensive metrics significantly.  I'm just going by everything I've read on the subject.

[Kimmi]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not for a SS. Story has had over 500 chances, this year. 2 plays does not move him from a DRS or +10-15 to zero.

There might be some other reasons for the drop, but two plays can skew the data significantly.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Kimmi said:

There might be some other reasons for the drop, but two plays can skew the data significantly.

It can some, but I doubt 2 bad plays means 2 DRS lost, let alone an 8-10 drop.

He was at +10 in 540 innings from 2023-2024. He's at -1 in more than double the innings, this year. If you prorate the '23-'24 numbers, he'd be at +20, meaning he dropped 21 DRS.

[Larry Cook]

Should crochet be skipped once or twice in the rotation in September????

Criswell is injured but we got Tolle Harrison and early that could get some spot starts for us!!!!

[Larry Cook]

Lowe going on paternity leave and refsynder returning 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Should crochet be skipped once or twice in the rotation in September????

Criswell is injured but we got Tolle Harrison and early that could get some spot starts for us!!!!

I think we just limit Crochets pitch counts and when we get Sept days off, he'll get extra days here and there.

It's not a bad idea to have him just skip a start on a rotation with a day off.

[Hitch]

If we're within striking distance of the Division (especially with the best record up for grabs) I don't see us skipping Crochet. 

[cp176]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

If we're within striking distance of the Division (especially with the best record up for grabs) I don't see us skipping Crochet. 

Kind of looks like Cora feels the same way.  I don’t think that the plan is for any of the big 3 to skip a start at this point in the season.  

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Kind of looks like Cora feels the same way.  I don’t think that the plan is for any of the big 3 to skip a start at this point in the season.  

Agreed, but I doubt we want him ending the season with the most IP in te AL, like he is, right now.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, cp176 said:

Kind of looks like Cora feels the same way.  I don’t think that the plan is for any of the big 3 to skip a start at this point in the season.  

It may change once a postseason birth is more secure. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It may change once a postseason birth is more secure. 

Good point.

I do think limiting Crochet's IP or pitches will begin, soon. he leads the AL in IP and is o.1 IP from leading MLB.  This, after a worry about his ability to pitch 150+ IP in the bigs.

Note" Crochet is so good and relatively "efficient" that he leads the league in IP, but he is 8th in pitches thrown. That still might be higher than planned, but you gotta do what you gotta do as a manager.

[mvp 78]

Slaten activated

Moran optioned to AAA

refsnyder activated

Lowe to the paternity list

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Slaten activated

Moran optioned to AAA

refsnyder activated

Lowe to the paternity list

When Lowe comes back? Eaton demoted?

Sept call-ups?

Harrison or Tolle?  Kelly?

Abreu may take up the Sept slot... Campbell or Sogard over Eaton?

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When Lowe comes back? Eaton demoted?

Sept call-ups?

Harrison or Tolle?  Kelly?

Abreu may take up the Sept slot... Campbell or Sogard over Eaton?

I heard that Abreu is progressing slowly and may take a while. I doubt if Campbell is the callup. Personally, I'd take Sogard or Eaton over anyone else (without looking into the overall math right now). 

Not sure how they weigh Tolle vs Harrison. Tolle is far superior, but may have an innings limit. If there is no innings limit, they'll roll with Tolle. If Tolle as an innings limit, he'll be used as a opener or in the bullpen at most. Maybe they just go with Harrison due to the previous MLB service time. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I heard that Abreu is progressing slowly and may take a while. I doubt if Campbell is the callup. Personally, I'd take Sogard or Eaton over anyone else (without looking into the overall math right now). 

Not sure how they weigh Tolle vs Harrison. Tolle is far superior, but may have an innings limit. If there is no innings limit, they'll roll with Tolle. If Tolle as an innings limit, he'll be used as a opener or in the bullpen at most. Maybe they just go with Harrison due to the previous MLB service time. 

Good summary of how it likely is.

[Larry Cook]

Who pitches for us tomorrow night? 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Who pitches for us tomorrow night? 

May’s turn, right?