Article: Might Second Base Be the Real Cause of Boston's Third Base Drama?

[Davy Andrews]

All the drama around third base might be telling us even more about the second base situation.

Over the past few days, Red Sox media – including this website – has been understandably focused on the drama at third base. The situation will absolutely iron itself out in time, and it’s hard to fault anyone too much in this situation. We have no idea what Bregman has said behind closed doors, but he’s said all the right things in public. Alex Cora has not chosen his words perfectly, but he’s been pretty clear about where the team stands. Rafael Devers, who was promised that third base was his just two years ago and then spent the whole offseason hearing the Red Sox swear up and down that they had no intention of moving him, has every right to be upset that they’re going back on their word. However things shake out, it’s clear that the team sees Bregman at third and Devers at DH. Our topic for today: What does that mean for second base?

Let’s assume that Kristian Campbell starts the season in Worcester, not exactly a stretch, since he’s only played 19 games at Triple A. In a perfect world, with everyone healthy, I think the team’s best infield looks like this: Devers at third, Trevor Story at short, Bregman at second, Triston Casas at first, and Yoshida at DH. Sure, Devers’ glove would hurt the team. But if you move him to DH and sit Yoshida, then Vaughn Grissom takes over at second, and trading Yoshida’s bat for Vaughn Grissom’s hurts much, much more. The Red Sox know that.

They’re giving Grissom a chance to earn the second base job, but he has a career 81 wRC+, and the advanced defensive metrics haven’t exactly loved his defense. He has yet to demonstrate great plate discipline or the ability to hit the ball hard. It’s entirely possible that the Red Sox believe in Grissom more than the projections do. He’s only 24, and the Red Sox have had a huge amount of success developing hitters in recent years. Grissom showed up to camp with 20 extra pounds of muscle, so he’s clearly focused on improving his bat speed and hitting the ball harder, a major organizational focus. This is his shot. Still, it’s far from a sure thing, and it’s hard to imagine the team putting all its eggs in that particular basket. That means we need to rethink our initial assumption about Campbell starting the season in Worcester.

That’s a lot of preamble, but my point is that the Red Sox must believe that Campbell has a very real chance of breaking camp with the club. With Campbell at second, all of this drama makes much more sense. If he’s on the team, there’s no longer any room for Bregman at second base, so of course they have to move Devers. Unless you're going to take the shortstop job away from Story (not as crazy an idea as it might sound), there's just no other option. Handing the second base job to Campbell would be its own gamble. Once again, he’s played just 19 games at Triple A, and although he’s hit everywhere down the line, he’s also run some crazy BABIPs. Starting him in Boston would be extremely aggressive. The team would need to be sure that he could handle, but also sure that it was in his best interest from a developmental standpoint. Still, the more acrimonious things get at Fenway South, the more it looks like the Red Sox are working on finding a place for the budding star.

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[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Davy Andrews said:

That’s a lot of preamble, but my point is that the Red Sox must believe that Campbell has a very real chance of breaking camp with the club. With Campbell at second, all of this drama makes much more sense. If he’s on the team, there’s no longer any room for Bregman at second base, so of course they have to move Devers. Unless you're going to take the shortstop job away from Story (not as crazy an idea as it might sound), there's just no other option. Handing the second base job to Campbell would be its own gamble. Once again, he’s played just 19 games at Triple A, and although he’s hit everywhere down the line, he’s also run some crazy BABIPs. Starting him in Boston would be extremely aggressive. The team would need to be sure that he could handle, but also sure that it was in his best interest from a developmental standpoint. Still, the more acrimonious things get at Fenway South, the more it looks like the Red Sox are working on finding a place for the budding star.

 

Every season, orgs get criticized for having their best prospects waste AB's in AAA. We have Anthony and Campbell very close to being ready and it's amazing that so many people are just assuming neither will be on the Opening Day roster. If I was the CBO, they'd both make the team out of camp. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Every season, orgs get criticized for having their best prospects waste AB's in AAA. We have Anthony and Campbell very close to being ready and it's amazing that so many people are just assuming neither will be on the Opening Day roster. If I was the CBO, they'd both make the team out of camp. 

Disagree. They have to earn their way, and they haven’t done that yet. If they both have bang out camps then we can have that conversation. What if they don’t have good camps? Neither one of the three top prospects have had many AB in AAA. When it’s time it’s time.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Disagree. They have to earn their way, and they haven’t done that yet. If they both have bang out camps then we can have that conversation. What if they don’t have good camps? Neither one of the three top prospects have had many AB in AAA. When it’s time it’s time.

I don't really care about AAA. Devers only had 38 PA's there before being promoted. If they show they aren't ready in ST, they aren't ready. My assumption is that they show they are more than ready. 

[Bellhorn04]

Good article.  Good point that second base is a riddle in itself.  And that Bregman at second might end up being the best move for the defense.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't really care about AAA. Devers only had 38 PA's there before being promoted. If they show they aren't ready in ST, they aren't ready. My assumption is that they show they are more than ready. 

I get all that, and everyone is different. Like I said when it’s time it will happen, but it won’t be automatically. All three will get plenty of AB in ST. Cora has already said. Most likely the results of those AB will determine the 26 for a few of them. Mayer is behind the other 2 in developmental time.

[harmony]

If Trevor Story is cooked, could Alex Bregman be the Red Sox shortstop?

Steamer projects Story with a 2025 wRC+ of 82 with 1.0 WAR in 141 games. The 32-year-old Story is coming off three injury-plagued seasons.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/injuries/_/id/18377/trevor-story

Bregman was drafted as a shortstop and played 129 MLB games at that position although he last played shortstop in 2019. Bregman has played only nine MLB games at second base, most recently in 2018.

Bregman's potential transitions to second base or shortstop are difficult to project.

The move would open up second base for Kristian Campbell, Vaughn Grissom or a sporadic appearance by a healthy Story.

 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I get all that, and everyone is different. Like I said when it’s time it will happen, but it won’t be automatically. All three will get plenty of AB in ST. Cora has already said. Most likely the results of those AB will determine the 26 for a few of them. Mayer is behind the other 2 in developmental time.

"Time" in  the minors?

[notin]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Every season, orgs get criticized for having their best prospects waste AB's in AAA. We have Anthony and Campbell very close to being ready and it's amazing that so many people are just assuming neither will be on the Opening Day roster. If I was the CBO, they'd both make the team out of camp. 

So who are you benching, trading, or cutting to start them?

[Davy Andrews]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't really care about AAA. Devers only had 38 PA's there before being promoted. If they show they aren't ready in ST, they aren't ready. My assumption is that they show they are more than ready. 

You both make good points. From my perspective, it's all about Campbell's development. They need to do whatever they think will maximize his chance of being a great player. Maybe that means jumping into the majors and maybe that means starting in Worcester, but that's got to be the priority.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

So who are you benching, trading, or cutting to start them?

Open to all 3. I'm not a big Grissom guy so I'd deal him. Hamilton is a very low ceiling guy IMO as he can only really play 2b. I'm not worried about moving on from him. Romy has a lot of positional versatility, but I think his production takes a step back this season. Making room in the OF is tougher, but I'd turn Rafaela into a Super UTIL and have Duran be the starting CFer. That opens up one of the corner OF spots for Anthony without having to deal Abreu. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Every season, orgs get criticized for having their best prospects waste AB's in AAA. We have Anthony and Campbell very close to being ready and it's amazing that so many people are just assuming neither will be on the Opening Day roster. If I was the CBO, they'd both make the team out of camp. 

I generally feel aggressive promotions are a good thing. But I'm just not sure about Campbell. He's just so... weird... and runs such high BABIPs that I think I want to see more of him in AAA, facing annoying 28-year-olds who pitch more than throw.

On the other hand, it's far more interesting if he's on the OD roster.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Open to all 3. I'm not a big Grissom guy so I'd deal him. Hamilton is a very low ceiling guy IMO as he can only really play 2b. I'm not worried about moving on from him. Romy has a lot of positional versatility, but I think his production takes a step back this season. Making room in the OF is tougher, but I'd turn Rafaela into a Super UTIL and have Duran be the starting CFer. That opens up one of the corner OF spots for Anthony without having to deal Abreu. 

There is a very strong possibility that Campbell is not blocked by Grissom, Hamilton or Romy, but rather by Bregman.

If that’s the case, are you benching/cutting/trading/demoting Yoshida? 

[notin]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

I generally feel aggressive promotions are a good thing. But I'm just not sure about Campbell. He's just so... weird... and runs such high BABIPs that I think I want to see more of him in AAA.

On the other hand, it's far more interesting if he's on the OD roster.

I have my doubts Campbell steps in and hits MLB pitching better than Yoshida right away.  But I like having him in my back pocket.

I could see Anthony starting over Campbell, because the path is cleaner now that Duran is not a disaster in CF…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sometimes prospects play better when they first make the majors. They're happier there, and not just because of the money, but with easier travel, better meals, better accommodations, and much better playing conditions, on better fields with better lighting, truer hops, easier to see pitches that are more around the plate... until someone finds a flaw in their swing, and "the book" circulates throughout the league.

Usually by the next season, we'll know if they're really ready for The Show. Boston has seen its share lately who weren't.

Meanwhile, there are plenty of guys who struggle out of the gate, like Pedroia or Casas (or Willie Mays) who find it, after adjusting. 

But someone who tears it up in the minors has nothing left to prove by getting sent back down. It's usually that the parent club deems he's just not good enough.

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

How many different threads need to be dedicated to the same topic?

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I generally feel aggressive promotions are a good thing. But I'm just not sure about Campbell. He's just so... weird... and runs such high BABIPs that I think I want to see more of him in AAA, facing annoying 28-year-olds who pitch more than throw.

On the other hand, it's far more interesting if he's on the OD roster.

At worst, you send him back to AAA if it's not working out in MLB. It's not like he's out of options or that he wouldn't understand being sent back down. 

His BABIP was crazy high before reaching AAA, but his 333 BABIP in AAA seems normal. He still had a 139 wRC+/898 OPS. He has a great hitters eye, so I think you'd see if he can't handle it very early on if his bb rate plummets or not. 

When you have a guy that could reasonably win the ROY and give you a PPI, I think you put them on the roster right away. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

How many different threads need to be dedicated to the same topic?

All of them. 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Open to all 3. I'm not a big Grissom guy so I'd deal him. Hamilton is a very low ceiling guy IMO as he can only really play 2b. I'm not worried about moving on from him. Romy has a lot of positional versatility, but I think his production takes a step back this season. Making room in the OF is tougher, but I'd turn Rafaela into a Super UTIL and have Duran be the starting CFer. That opens up one of the corner OF spots for Anthony without having to deal Abreu. 

I totally agree.

I can see waiting to trade Grissom, in hopes he can increase his trade value in 2025, but how many times do we say that and don't see it happen?

I like DHam's D at 2B, but he is not a good utility type guy. His ability to steal bases has real value, too, and he could be used as a PR, often. I'm not sure that makes him deserving of a roster spot, with Campbell at 2B FT. I agree that Romy's versatility puts him ahead of DHam and Grissom.

If Anthony and Campbell are on the 26, it should be as FT'ers or near FT'ers, so that would further squeeze the capable players into the minors or a trade. The OF would be squeezed to a point where we just keep 1 IF sub (Romy.) The catcher takes the second sub slot. That leaves room for 5 OF"ers/DH types. Rafaela offers IF depth, so we can roll with 5: Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Anthony and _____? I say REF over Yoshida, as we need his RHB. Yoshida has options, so we don't need to DFA or trade, but a trade would do wonders for our "roster construction." Other options: trade Casas or Abreu. ( don't like those ideas.)

With Anthony and Campbell FT, we almost have to have Bregman at 3B and Devers at DH (or 1B,) unless Campbell plays OF and puts Abreu on the bench (highly doubtful vs RHPs.) and REF vs LHPs (damn!, unless we bench Rafaela- see below.)

1. L Duran LF v R and CF v L

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas 1B/DH

4. L Devers DH/1B

5. R Campbell 2B

6. L Abreu RF vs R/ R Story SS v L

7. R Story SS v R/ L Refsnyder LF v L

8. L Anthony CF v R/ RF v L

9. R Wong or Narvaez C

Bench: Rafaela, a catcher, Ref or Abreu and Romy

 

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I generally feel aggressive promotions are a good thing. But I'm just not sure about Campbell. He's just so... weird... and runs such high BABIPs that I think I want to see more of him in AAA, facing annoying 28-year-olds who pitch more than throw.

On the other hand, it's far more interesting if he's on the OD roster.

You want weird stuff or not, buddy? 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

All of them. 

Not really, it's silly and redundant

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Not really, it's silly and redundant

But what's your take: do you abhor guys that are different, or abhor guys who abhor those that are different?

Northeastern tomorrow -- almost real baseball games!

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But what's your take: do you abhor guys that are different, or abhor guys who abhor those that are different?

Northeastern tomorrow -- almost real baseball games!

Why don't they do the doubleheader NU/BC anymore? They haven't played BC since 2018. Is that the new curse?

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Not really, it's silly and redundant

You're directing this at Brock and the article writers.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You want weird stuff or not, buddy? 

I didn't say his weirdness is a bad thing!

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

When you have a guy that could reasonably win the ROY and give you a PPI, I think you put them on the roster right away. 

To me, this is the biggest reason why if you think a top prospect is anywhere close to ready, you put him on the OD roster. I'm surprised by how many teams ignore these new incentives.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I didn't say his weirdness is a bad thing!

🤔

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

To me, this is the biggest reason why if you think a top prospect is anywhere close to ready, you put him on the OD roster. I'm surprised by how many teams ignore these new incentives.

And I'll say it again, if they sign Anthony and Campbell to extensions prior to Opening Day, those PPI incentives disappear. At that point, there is less of a reason to put them on the Opening Day roster. You can wait 2 weeks and make sure they are still raking in AAA before calling them up. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

To me, this is the biggest reason why if you think a top prospect is anywhere close to ready, you put him on the OD roster. I'm surprised by how many teams ignore these new incentives.

But if we have a Rookie of the Year, and then get another draft pick, that's two guys we have to worry about paying market value to -- or we have to trade them sooner!

Why do we have to be so good all the time -- people will come; it's baseball.

[moonslav59]

How long does a prospect have to stay in the minors to get that "extra year" of team control?