Article: 25 Predictions For the 2025 Red Sox

[Daniel Fox]

Actually, it's more like 30 predictions once you count all the two-parters.

Happy New Year, Red Sox Nation! I don't know about you, but the best thing about watching that ball drop at midnight was the ability to wash away the disappointment of the 2024 baseball season. This year brings with it a new chance for the Boston Red Sox, and with a stacked farm system, emerging young core, and brand-new ace, it should be a memorable season for the Old Towne Team. Here are 25 predictions for the 2025 Red Sox:

1. The Red Sox add at least one more back-end reliever.

While the starting pitcher and first base market have been depleted through the first two months of free agency, the late-inning reliever market has barely been touched. I think the Red Sox succeed in their choice to wait out the market and an experienced reliever falls into their lap. I don’t think it will be Tanner Scott, who is reported to be looking for a four-year, $80-million contract, but I expect them to land one of either Kirby Yates, Carlos Estevez, or Jeff Hoffman.

2. The right-handed bat addition is very underwhelming.

There is no question that the Red Sox are going to add a right-handed bat. Pretty much every time Craig Breslow talks, he mentions how they need to balance the lineup that is overflowing with left-handed bats. However, based on the remaining free agent options and their reported lukewarm interest in Alex Bregman, I don’t think people are going to be happy with who is coming to town. The two names I think make the most sense are (unfortunately) Taylor Ward and Randall Grichuk.

3. Vaughn Grissom wins the Opening Day second base job.

Part of the reason the Red Sox haven’t been aggressive enough to add more offense is their belief in their existing core of unproven youngsters. Whether it turns out to be justified, the Red Sox still think highly of Vaughn Grissom, and though his first season in Boston was mostly a disaster, he did impress during his final week with the big league club. I think he comes into spring training healthy and motivated and shows enough to win the second base job for opening day.

4. What to do with Kutter Crawford becomes the major spring training storyline.

It’s a bizarre feeling for the Red Sox to seemingly have too much starting pitching, but with the emergence of young arms like Quinn Presiter and Richard Fitts and the additions of Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, the Red Sox suddenly have a very crowded rotation. Once it becomes evident to everyone that Lucas Giolito will be ready for opening day, all eyes will turn to Kutter Crawford. Though he won’t be happy about it, he is going to be the odd man out of the rotation and begin the season in the bullpen

5.  Garrett Crochet signs a long-term extension.

Last spring,  the Red Sox signed both Ceddanne Rafaela and Brayan Bello to long-term deals, both of which I viewed as unnecessary at the time (as well as one year later). This spring, however, the Red Sox will make the correct move and sign Garrett Crochet to a long-term deal. They've already invested so much prospect capital into the acquisition that it only makes sense to go all-in financially as well, even if he carries injury risk. Let’s call it a back-loaded 8-year, $150-million deal that carries him through his age-33 season.

6. Justin Slaten wins the closer job; Liam Hendriks disappoints.

As much as I hate to admit it, one player I believe will disappoint in 2025 is Liam Hendriks. It’s extremely difficult for any player to return to form after missing nearly two full years, and that's even more true for a 36-year-old. Once it becomes clear Hendriks no longer possesses top-tier stuff, the Red Sox will give Justin Slaten the first shot at the closer’s role, and he should excel in the role with his upper-90s fastball and excellent control.

7. Roman Anthony arrives in May.

Though there will be plenty of voices clamoring to put Roman Anthony on the Opening Day roster, I think the Red Sox play it safe and send him down to Triple A for a little more seasoning. After a month, however, it will become clear that Anthony is simply too good for minor-league pitching. The Red Sox will have no choice but to promote him at the beginning of May, at which time he will become the everyday left fielder.

8. Ceddanne Rafaela settles into a utility role.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s defense has never been in question, but a .270 on-base percentage as a rookie raised serious doubts about his ability to be an everyday big leaguer. After a slow start in 2025, the Red Sox will transition him to a utility role upon Anthony’s call-up. He will still be a below-average hitter, but his defensive versatility will allow him to be a valuable contributor to the team and generate around 2.0 WAR.

9. Brayan Bello takes a step forward; Tanner Houck takes a step back.

After a fantastic 2023 season, a spring training extension, and an Opening Day starting nod, hopes were high for Brayan Bello in the 2024 season. Yet while he showed flashes of brilliance, Bello struggled with spotty command and ended with a 4.49 ERA.  If there is any reason for optimism, it is that he was considerably better down the stretch, with a 3.66 mark over the last three months and a solid 89/35 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. As he enters his age 26 season and his second year under the tutelage of Andrew Bailey, I predict that Bello will carry over the progress he made in the second half and have a career-best year.

On the flip side, I think that Tanner Houck will take a small step backward. I still believe he will be a quality major-league starter, but expecting him to repeat a 3.12 ERA seems unrealistic. His mediocre control and middling strikeout numbers point more to a mid-rotation starter than one who can lead a rotation.  I think the 4.11 ERA he had after June 6 is closer to the production we can expect to move forward.

10. We are all thankful for the rotation depth.

It didn’t take long for the Red Sox rotation depth, or lack thereof, to be exposed in 2024. With Lucas Giolito lost for the year in spring training and Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, and Garrett Whitlock going down in April, the Red Sox were forced to give starts to the likes of Josh Winckowski and Chase Anderson, which turned out about as well as anybody could have expected.

Here’s a secret: The Red Sox are going to have starters on the injured list this year. No team has ever gone through an MLB season with all five guys making 33 starts. Yet unlike in previous seasons, the Red Sox are prepared for the inevitable injuries due to their deep collection of upper minors pitching depth. Whether it be intriguing young hurlers like Quinn Priester, Hunter Dobbins, and Richard Fitts or experienced veterans like Cooper Criswell or Patrick Sandoval, the Red Sox will finally have acceptable major league alternatives to turn to, and we will all be grateful for it.

11. The All-Stars: Triston Casas, Rafael Devers, Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello.

For the first time since 2021, the Red Sox will send four players to the Midsummer Classic in Atlanta. From the offense, Rafael Devers will get the start for the American League at third base in his fourth All-Star selection, and Triston Casas will make his first All-Star team as Vladimir Guerrero’s backup. On the pitching side, Garrett Crochet will make his second straight All-Star team in his first season with the Red Sox, while Brayan Bello’s aforementioned breakout season will result in a surprise All-Star selection. One other note: I wanted to fit Trevor Story on this squad as well, but as long as Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. still play in the American League, it’s going to be an uphill battle.

12. Wilyer Abreu gets traded at the deadline.

With the team's abundance of both left-handed hitters and outfielders, Wilyer Abreu was a prime trade candidate entering this offseason, but with the club able to obtain their ace by dealing only minor leaguers, it now seems that Abreu will at least start the season on the big league roster. This prediction is far less an indictment of Abreu than a numbers game: Once Anthony comes up, the Red Sox will have four outfielders (five if you count Campbell) for three spots. It’s not every day that a controllable, Gold-Glove outfielder with an above-average bat is available on the market, and I predict that the Red Sox will use Abreu to address one of their other needs.

13. Kristian Campbell is an everyday player in the second half...in left field.

Though some people believe that Kristian Campbell will start the year in the big leagues, I think it’s important to remember that this is a guy who started 2024 in High A and had his season cut short by injury. He will start the season getting a little more experience at Triple A, but like Roman Anthony, he will quickly prove too good for the minor leagues. The above trade of Wilyer Abreu will not only create a clear path for everyday at-bats for Anthony but also free up a spot in left field for Campbell.

14. Trevor Story plays 150 games, wins a Gold Glove.

It’s been a disastrous first three years in Boston for Story, with almost comically bad injury luck, but that is going to end in 2025. Barring any wayward pitches breaking his hand or shoulders popping out of sockets on a routine dive for a ground ball, Story is going to re-esablish himself as the leader of both the team and the infield. Though Bobby Witt Jr. is an incredible defender, the difference in the Red Sox defense from 2024 to 2025 will be too noticeable to deny Story his first Gold Glove.

15. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers combine for 65 home runs and 220 RBIs.

Due to a variety of injuries, ailments, and slumps, we’ve only gotten a glimpse of what these two sluggers can do back-to-back in the order. As one of the industry's foremost Triston Casas believers, I think he has the potential to put up a stat line like prime Anthony Rizzo: 30 to 35 home runs, over 100 RBIs, and an on-base percentage of around .380. This will take the pressure off Devers and give him more pitches to hit, and with a pair of healthy shoulders, he will post a season similar to 2021 (.279/.352/.538 38 HR 113 RBI).

16. Marcelo Mayer debuts in September, platoons with Grissom.

Of the remaining Big Three, Marcelo Mayer is unquestionably the farthest from the major leagues. With no experience above Double A and an extensive injury history, Mayer will spend the majority of the season at Triple A, where he will impress but not quite force his way to the majors. Much like Triston Casas in 2022 and Ceddanne Rafaela in 2023, the Red Sox will call him up when rosters expand in September and ease him in by platooning him with Grissom.

17. The number one prospect in the system at the end of 2025? Franklin Arias.

With Mayer, Campbell, and Anthony in the majors and Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery in Chicago, there will be a new face at the top of the Red Sox prospects rankings by the end of the 2025 season. Though Miguel Bleis and Yoelin Cespedes will also have a strong case, I’m going to roll with Franklin Arias, who broke out as a borderline top-100 prospect by hitting .355 in FCL and holding his own as an 18-year-old in Salem. I would not be surprised to see Arias make a Campbell-esque leap and end the season as a top-25 prospect.

18. Johanfran Gracia is the breakout prospect of the year.

It was, all in all, a relatively healthy 2024 season for the Red Sox farm system, but the one major exception was catching prospect Johanfran Garcia. After scorching low-A pitching to the tune of a .385/.467/.596 line in 19 games, Garcia suffered a torn ACL in May while rounding first base, prematurely ending what looked to be a special season for the 19-year-old. With a full offseason to recover, Garcia will make a leap similar to the one his brother Jhostyxon Garcia made in 2024 and end 2025 as the consensus best-hitting prospect in the system.

19. Luis Guerrero emerges as a premier setup man.

Luis Guerrero was a breath of fresh air for a decimated and inconsistent Red Sox bullpen, tossing 10 scoreless innings while walking just two batters in a September cup of coffee in 2025. Though new additions and the return of Garrett Whitlock may force him back to Triple-A to start the season, Guerrero will get his chance at some point this season and seize the opportunity. With his high-octane stuff and solid control, Guerrero will quickly move into Alex Cora’s circle of trust and toss critical innings down the stretch.

20. The Red Sox win 88 games and claim the first Wild Card spot.

The Red Sox are far from a perfect team, and there will undoubtedly be growing pains with so many young hitters in their lineup. Fortunately for them, they play in an American League that doesn’t have a great team besides the Yankees. The Orioles have no dependable starting pitchers, the Guardians got worse this offseason, the Tigers and Royals will come back down to earth, the Astros lost two pieces of their core, the Rangers are old and injury-prone, and the Mariners still can’t figure out their offense. The door is open for the Red Sox, and I think they’ll secure the first wild card spot on the back of their pitching depth.

21. Walker Buehler has a big postseason moment.

I haven’t talked yet about Walker Buehler, which is mostly due to the fact that I think he is going to have a solid-but-unspectacular season. One thing we all know about Buehler, however, is that he is at his best when the lights are the brightest. He was brought in in large part due to his postseason experience and veteran moxie, and both will shine through in the opening round. I’m thinking seven innings of one-run ball in a Game 3 clincher to send the Red Sox to the ALDS. 

22. Red Sox come up short in the postseason…because of their offense.

While a Wild Card series victory may have fans dreaming of another miraculous postseason run, the train will end in the ALDS. Surprisingly, it will be the offense that leads to their downfall, as the struggles against left-handed pitching and propensity for strikeouts will stick out like a sore thumb. The Red Sox will steal Game 1 in New York when they knock out Gerrit Cole in the third inning, but Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will throw gems in Games 2 and 3, and though the Red Sox will send the series back to New York, Fried will put the nail in the coffin with another masterpiece in Game 5.

23. Masataka Yoshida gets traded early in the 2025 offseason.

It’s no secret that the Red Sox want to trade Masataka Yoshida, but with three years left on his contract and offseason shoulder surgery, they have been unable to find any takers. I think that Yoshida will have a fine enough season (120 OPS+, .290 batting average) but will still be expendable due to his left-handedness and defensive limitations. The Red Sox will find that teams are much more willing to pay for two years of Yoshida rather than three, especially after a healthy season, and they will finally be able to find a suitor. 

24. Triston Casas gets a long-term extension.

Fortuently for all of us, this will be the last offseason where we are subjugated to the nonsense of Triston Casas trade rumors. After a healthy, dominant season in 2025, the Red Sox will break open the bank to lock in Casas in the middle of their order for the foreseeable future. I envision a contract similar to the 8-year, $168-million contract Matt Olson received fro, the Atlanta Braves back in 2022.

25. The Red Sox don’t sign any of the big free agent pitchers (again), bring in Marcell Ozuna on a one-year deal.

After the Red Sox missed out on Burnes, Fried, and Snell, I've already seen some people talk about next year’s free-agent class, which is headlined by Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease. I think that we as a fanbase need to accept that after getting burned by David Price and Chris Sale, John Henry is going to be extremely reluctant to hand out long-term deals to pitchers in their 30s. I also think that the aforementioned Tristan Casas extension will take them out of the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sweepstakes. The Red Sox instead will bring in slugger Marcell Ozuna on a one-year deal and slot him into the DH spot that was vacated by the Masataka Yoshida trade.

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[mvp 78]

Taylor Ward doesn't seem like a horrible idea to me. 

 

[mvp 78]

I think Slaten could get the closer's job at some point, but don't think it will be on day one. I think Hendriks will get the first crack at it and will have it for April at least. 

[mvp 78]

Bringing Anthony up in May doesn't make sense as it's too late for PPI and too soon for Super Two protection.

[mvp 78]

If Mayer only debuts in September, he'll still won't have enough MLB experience to take him out of the prospect rankings and will remain #1 prospect, especially in a timeshare. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Mayer only debuts in September, he'll still won't have enough MLB experience to take him out of the prospect rankings and will remain #1 prospect, especially in a timeshare. 

Mayer's late-season injury makes fans forget that he was the Sox prospect leading the Eastern League in batting average before promotion to AAA.

I'm not saying that makes him better than Anthony or Campbell -- only that Marcelo can hang with both as a hitter. Maybe he stays healthy and winds up the surprise breakout big leaguer. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Mayer's late-season injury makes fans forget that he was the Sox prospect leading the Eastern League in batting average before promotion to AAA.

I'm not saying that makes him better than Anthony or Campbell -- only that Marcelo can hang with both as a hitter. Maybe he stays healthy and winds up the surprise breakout big leaguer. 

Mayer's issues are that he struggles against LHP and breaking balls. Maybe he can work on this in AAA in 2025. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer's issues are that he struggles against LHP and breaking balls. Maybe he can work on this in AAA in 2025. 

Or in Boston, since that sums up the average lefty-swinging big leaguer, too.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Or in Boston, since that sums up the average lefty-swinging big leaguer, too.

Harder to work on that kind of stuff in MLB when the stress level is higher and the stuff your facing is that much harder. He may have to depending on Story's health and the other players around him. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer's issues are that he struggles against LHP and breaking balls. Maybe he can work on this in AAA in 2025. 

Mayer's struggles vs LHPs were for real in 2024, but not so much before that year....

2024: .896 v R/.674 v L

2023: .746/.704

2022: .884/.904

2021: .786/.887

[notin]

Quote

 

Why would Taylor Ward be an underwhelming addition?

He had a .873 OPS vs LHP last year, has excellent range and a strong throwing arm, and is capable of playing either corner outfield position.

And he’s a decent hitter, too.  
 

I like the idea.  His biggest issue is he only has one year of control left…

[moonslav59]

My 10 pre-season predictions:

1. We sign no big FA.

2. We sign Carlos Estevez.

3. We trade Abreu to HOU for Luis Garcia & Victor Caratini

4. We start all 3 top prospects in AAA and wait for the extra year of control to kick in.

5. DHam and Grissom start the season as our 2B platoon.

6. Yoshida and Refsnyder start the season as our DH platoon.

7. Whitlock starts the year on the 15 Day IL.

8. Sandoval is placed on the 60 Day IL on opening day.

9. I Campbell is added back to the 40 man, after a nice ST'ing, but starts the year in AAA.

10. Kennedy, Brez & Co continue talking how they made us more competitive and spending more was not an issue.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer's struggles vs LHPs were for real in 2024, but not so much before that year....

2024: .896 v R/.674 v L

2023: .746/.704

2022: .884/.904

2021: .786/.887

He hasn't had an OPS above 700 vs LHP since getting to AA in 2023. Duran was able to get it to the 800's in WOO after struggling in POR.

 

 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would Taylor Ward be an underwhelming addition?

He had a .873 OPS vs LHP last year, has excellent range and a strong throwing arm, and is capable of playing either corner outfield position.

And he’s a decent hitter, too.  
 

I like the idea.  His biggest issue is he only has one year of control left…

Maybe underwhelming in terms of name recognition, but who cares about that? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Cartaya to Twins for a minor league arm. 

"He’s received high marks for his defense, including a plus arm according to MLB Pipeline, and improving receiving skills."

My prediction is that the Red Sox already made their trade for their second catcher this year.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He hasn't had an OPS above 700 vs LHP since getting to AA in 2023. Duran was able to get it to the 800's in WOO after struggling in POR.

 

 

True, and it still means he struggled vs LHPs in 2023, despite close splits, that year.

I'm concerned, but it's not like he's struggled every year. Some players just have off year splits. He was hurt, a lot, too, and the sample sizes were not big.

[drewski6]

22. Red Sox come up short in the postseason…because of their offense.

While a Wild Card series victory may have fans dreaming of another miraculous postseason run, the train will end in the ALDS. Surprisingly, it will be the offense that leads to their downfall, as the struggles against left-handed pitching and propensity for strikeouts will stick out like a sore thumb. The Red Sox will steal Game 1 in New York when they knock out Gerrit Cole in the third inning, but Max Fried and Carlos Rodon will throw gems in Games 2 and 3, and though the Red Sox will send the series back to New York, Fried will put the nail in the coffin with another masterpiece in Game 5.

^^YUP!!  The offense will be this teams downfall.  Daniel Fox is saying it, Zips is saying it, Im saying it.  And this is despite the fact that Mr Fox is extremely optimistic on Casas, and still thinks we dont have the bats. Cuz we dont.

 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, and it still means he struggled vs LHPs in 2023, despite close splits, that year.

I'm concerned, but it's not like he's struggled every year. Some players just have off year splits. He was hurt, a lot, too, and the sample sizes were not big.

Yeah, his off year splits were one HR against a bad pitcher in a small sample skewing the OPS to make it look like he was capable of hitting lefties. In 2023 and 2024, he regressed. If you don't believe me, read the SP scouting report:

Needs to improve pitch recognition, especially against breaking balls. Some questions about how his contact skills will translate against more advanced pitching. Seems to struggle to pick the ball up against left-handed pitchers and has had considerable platoon splits throughout his career.

[mvp 78]

I mean, the summary really says a lot:

Platoon and chase concerns hold hit tool back, and when combined with injury question marks, has a wider range of outcomes than you would expect and a decent number of questions to answer for such a highly regarded prospect.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, the summary really says a lot:

Platoon and chase concerns hold hit tool back, and when combined with injury question marks, has a wider range of outcomes than you would expect and a decent number of questions to answer for such a highly regarded prospect.

Regarding the mismatched SOX: I'm either optimistic about Mayer because the Red kept him over Teel, or pessimistic because the White took Teel instead... (when they already had a top catching prospect).

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Regarding the mismatched SOX: I'm either optimistic about Mayer because the Red kept him over Teel, or pessimistic because the White took Teel instead... (when they already had a top catching prospect).

Teel is a LHB, Quero is a RHB. I think most clubs realize they need 2 catchers going forward. Why not have two young ones that will stick around for a while and you can platoon? 

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Mayer only debuts in September, he'll still won't have enough MLB experience to take him out of the prospect rankings and will remain #1 prospect, especially in a timeshare. 

Or maybe he thinks arias is that good!!!!

[notin]

15 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Cartaya to Twins for a minor league arm. 

"He’s received high marks for his defense, including a plus arm according to MLB Pipeline, and improving receiving skills."

My prediction is that the Red Sox already made their trade for their second catcher this year.

You’re predicting something that already happened?

Not sure that’s how predictions work…