Article: The Red Sox Should Be Worried About Trevor Story

[Davy Andrews]

The shortstop just hasn't been able to keep things going since he joined the Red Sox. It's time to start wondering whether he ever will.

We need to talk about Trevor Story. The shortstop has played through three of the six years on his contract with the Red Sox. Over those first three years, he has played in one season’s worth of games, run a wRC+ of 87 (making him 13% worse than the average batter), and posted 3.5 fWAR. According to FanGraphs, 45 different players have provided more value than Story at short over that period. However, Story’s defense has been excellent, so on a per-game basis, he’s been an extremely solid player. It’s perfectly understandable to assume that next season, he’ll be back to full health and he’ll keep on playing well. Still, there are some serious reasons to doubt that assumption, and I’d like to go over them with you.

Why has Story’s bat been so much worse over the past few years? For starters, he strikes out a lot. He’s struck out nearly a third of the time since he moved to Boston. He walked a lot during his very abbreviated 2024 season, but that hasn’t historically been a strength for him either. He’s also likely had some luck propping up his numbers on balls in play. According to DRC+, a stat created by Baseball Prospectus that grades players not just according to their outcomes, but the process that goes into their hitting, Story has been something like 30% worse than the average hitter of the past two seasons. It’s not hard to see why. His contact quality has cratered, a really concerning development for anyone, but especially for a player who has suffered a shoulder injury. In 2021 and 2022, Story’s 90th percentile exit velocity ranked in the 79th and 78th percentiles, respectively. It fell to the 50th in 2023 and all the way to the ninth in 2024. It was a small sample size, but still, that's ugly. Even if Story’s power bounces back some, his bat just doesn’t seem like a smart bet going forward. 

If Story can’t keep up league-average production at the plate, it’s going to put a whole lot of pressure on his glove. The good news is that his glove is great! It’s great right now. The problem is that he’s 32 years old, and his arm grades out as one of the weakest in baseball. He put up a career-low sprint speed in 2024, and this is right around the time that you’d expect a player to slow down. Maybe Story has the quickness and skills to keep playing great defense for a few more years, but that’s probably not the world's safest bet.

Just to recap: there’s good reason to mistrust Story’s bat, and we’re also right around the time that we should expect to his glove to start dropping off. Now, maybe none of this comes to pass. Story has really been through it on the injury front, and he so deeply deserves the chance to show people why the Red Sox went out and got him. It was wonderful to see him return at the end of the season and contribute. If, after a healthy offseason, he’s able to regain some strength and hit the ball harder, he could absolutely have a great year. Still, it’s important to be clear-eyed about the middle infield situation.

The Red Sox were the worst team in baseball at second base in 2024, and at the moment, the team’s plan there appears to consist of hoping that Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell reach out and grab the job. That’s not necessarily a bad plan, but it carries quite a bit of risk. Take a moment to assume the following hypothetical: Neither prospect comes up and shines right away, Story isn't able to contribute much at short, and lastly (as is almost certain at this point) the Red Sox don’t get much production out of the catcher spot either. All of a sudden, the team that spent most of the offseason talking about all the ways it was going to improve is a complete wasteland up the middle, where great teams are supposed to be their strongest.

The Red Sox are at an interesting point in the win curve. While you could be excused for not considering them real contenders during the 2024 season, they weren’t eliminated until the very end of the season. Several lineup spots are already filled by players who range from excellent to solid: Jarren Duran in left field, Ceddanne Rafaela in center, Wilyer Abreu in right, Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first, and Masataka Yoshida at DH. You might not personally believe in every single one of those players, but in nearly every case, it’s hard to argue that the incumbent is unlikely to put up league-average production at the very least next season. Yoshida doesn’t blow you away, but he’s an above average hitter even for a DH. Rafaela doesn’t hit at all, but if he gets regular reps in center field, his defense can more than cover for that. With a roster like this, it’s a bit harder to add significantly because whoever you bring in doesn’t just need to be good, they need to be significantly better than the solid players they’re replacing. That’s one of the reasons Juan Soto’s free agency was so frenzied. There’s simply no such thing as a team that wouldn’t be much, much better with Juan Soto.

Shortstop and second base are two positions where the Red Sox could really stand to get much better, and if their current plan there doesn’t work out. Things might not be pretty.

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[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Story is what he is, at this point. Anything we get from him is a bonus going forward.

I'm more worried about anyone who thinks the Red Sox can contend with Story in his 30s hitting 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the batting order.

[moonslav59]

If he hits .680-.700 he'll be a net plus- not a plus worth $23M, but still better than Rafaela, DHam & Co.

If he hits .720-.740, it would make a difference.

.760-.780 is about his ceiling, IMO. That would be nice.

Maybe he has one .800 year in him, left.

His D is among the best of the best.

[mvp 78]

Story will have a 4 WAR season this year. 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story will have a 4 WAR season this year. 

I hope you are right. I have not given up on him.

[drewski6]

I honestly think if he can stay healthy, hes very far from a problem.  Maybe when you consider his contract, but thats a sunk cost.

[sk7326]

His defense will let him be at least a viable starter.  Now, the OP is right.  The Statcast batted ball rates plummeted for Story last season ... and we have to see whether that is sample size theater, whether his shoulder was causal, or whether he is just washed.  

I give him enormous credit for coming back during the season last year.  He has just been cursed,  

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Story will have a 4 WAR season this year. 

If he does, think he opts out?  This is the season in which he has that option, and the SS market looks fairly week next off-season…

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

If he does, think he opts out?  This is the season in which he has that option, and the SS market looks fairly week next off-season…

I doubt it, but you never know. I don't think he's beating his current contract on the open market. The injury history is pretty scary. 

[mvp 78]

Story last September: 

119 wRC+

790 OPS

5 SB

 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I doubt it, but you never know. I don't think he's beating his current contract on the open market. The injury history is pretty scary. 

I suppose if he has a 4 fWAR season, he might try for a deal longer than his remaining two years, even if the AAV isn’t as good.  Those years might not be as available if he waits out his deal.

 

I guess it depends what he values more - years or money.  And whether or not he can actually put up a 4 fWAR season…

[Davy Andrews]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I doubt it, but you never know. I don't think he's beating his current contract on the open market. The injury history is pretty scary. 

I'm inclined to agree. I think he'd have to put up a true monster season in order to risk it.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I suppose if he has a 4 fWAR season, he might try for a deal longer than his remaining two years, even if the AAV isn’t as good.  Those years might not be as available if he waits out his deal.

 

I guess it depends what he values more - years or money.  And whether or not he can actually put up a 4 fWAR season…

It's your mvp lock of the year! 

[Larry Cook]

I think story’s production over the past three years reflects the injuries!  I do not know if he can go a year without injury, but I think he gets Wally pipped sometime around July for Mayer. 

[moonslav59]

Conversely, if he can stay healthy, maybe he can have the time to find a groove and stay in it for long enough to show real value.