Rumor: Are The Red Sox Shopping Triston Casas?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe wrote on Saturday that "several major league sources" are reporting that the Red Sox have been actively shopping first baseman Triston Casas in trade talks this winter.

After Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said earlier that the team was not interested in shopping Casas, something appears to have changed. Coupled with the pursuit of Juan Soto and speculation that Rafael Devers may move off third base, it will be hard to find consistent playing time for Casas if all those stars align.

Casas, still only 24, posted a 120 OPS+ last season and isn't arbitration-eligible. He is under team control until after the 2028 season.

View full rumor

[Thunder]

I have heard that the Pirates are very interested in a deal. Obviously, they have a plethora of young talent in the minors to give us. 
 

I would also love to see Casas dealt here for my own selfish reasons, assuming he must get dealt at all. Option #1 of course is staying in Boston

[Larry Cook]

Are these sources really credible???

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

Are these sources really credible???

Alex Speier certainly is.

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Alex Speier certainly is.

You trust him? 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

You trust him? 

As much as I trust any Red Sox source, sure.  He has a good track record of only reporting stuff that's real.

[Larry Cook]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

As much as I trust any Red Sox source, sure.  He has a good track record of only reporting stuff that's real.

So you put more stock in the occasional hit than all the other misses????

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

So you put more stock in the occasional hit than all the other misses????

What do you consider a miss?  He's not making predictions, just reporting credible rumors.

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What do you consider a miss?  He's not making predictions, just reporting credible rumors.

Seems like last year he threw out a lot of garbage about us being in on the big 4, none of that was real 

[harmony]

32 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Seems like last year he threw out a lot of garbage about us being in on the big 4, none of that was real 

On what is that conclusion based?

The Red Sox may have been in negotiations with all four Big 4 without submitting a winning bid.

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Seems like last year he threw out a lot of garbage about us being in on the big 4, none of that was real 

These things happen when you're covering the Interest Kings. 

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Seems like last year he threw out a lot of garbage about us being in on the big 4, none of that was real 

When did he link the Sox to Matt Chapman or Cody Bellinger?  And everyone linked the Sox to Jordan Montgomery.  Multiple times.

 

I trust Speier infinitely more than the Internet Rumor Mills like Savage Sports or Hector Gomez (or whatever) whose sole goal is to increase hits by “reporting” what people want to hear…

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

When did he link the Sox to Matt Chapman or Cody Bellinger?  And everyone linked the Sox to Jordan Montgomery.  Multiple times.

 

I trust Speier infinitely more than the Internet Rumor Mills like Savage Sports or Hector Gomez (or whatever) whose sole goal is to increase hits by “reporting” what people want to hear…

We must remember the big 4 differently, but I never said you should stop following spire if he you like him. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We must remember the big 4 differently, but I never said you should stop following spire if he you like him. 

The big four last year were Snell, Montgomery, Chapman and Bellinger.

Speier (and everyone else) linked Boston to Montgomery.  He probably linked us to Snell, which is believable and probably happened.

 

But Chapman and Bellinger?  I don’t recall him or anyone else establishing that connection, and I very much wanted the Sox in on Chapman…

[Larry Cook]

Would Pittsburgh be interested in sending us jones for cassas and a prospect ? 

[moonslav59]

We should know that Casas has been our best left batter vs LHPs since 2022 (180+ PAs)

.772 Casas

.746 Devers

Only Refsnyder (.910)  hit lefties better on our whole roster.

If you lower the PAs to 100:

.910 Ref

.879 Romy

.772 Casas

.746 Devers

.743 Story

.694 Wong

2024 only:

1.179 O'Neill

.941 Ref

.879 Romy

.877 Wong

.772 Jansen

.758 Casas

.687 Devers

.665 Duran

.603 Rafaela (reverse splits)

.565 Yoshida (did much better in '23)

.532 Abreu and DHam (Both should platoon until they prove themselves.)

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Would Pittsburgh be interested in sending us jones for cassas and a prospect ? 

Sure, if that prospect was Kristian Campbell.

 

On BTV, a deal of Casas and Yoelin Casper’s is fair, but I’m not entirely sure Pitt is interested in that deal.  On that site, Casas’ value is roughly equal to that of Johan Oviedo.  I don’t think Boston should be interested in that deal…

[Deja Doh]

We should be shopping Devers.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

We should be shopping Devers.

With today's contract costs, he's now a bargain, at his age.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

So you put more stock in the occasional hit than all the other misses????

Let’s not conflate “a contract was not signed” with “a miss” on reporting a rumor. Teams have *loads* of conversations that end up going nowhere. It doesn’t mean the conversation didn’t happen or that there wasn’t real intent behind it.

I encourage people interested in rumors to read this piece from Matt Trueblood on how deals are reported and often fall apart.

The (It's Not a) Life and (So It Can't Be a) Death of That Wild Garrett Crochet-to-Cubs Trade Rumor - Cubs - North Side Baseball

NORTHSIDEBASEBALL.COM

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For a day on which nothing actually happened, a lot sure did happen on Thursday, eh? Let's clean up a mess.

 

[mvp 78]

22 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Alex Speier certainly is.

Speier is at the Passan level of trustworthiness IMO. 

[harmony]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With today's contract costs, he's now a bargain, at his age.

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rafael Devers a surplus value of only $11.9 million with nine years and $266 million remaining on his contract.

This year Devers ranked 27th among position players in fWAR, which is in line with his ranking of 28th among position players over the past three seasons combined. FanGraph valued his 2024 production at $33 million and his three-year production at $100.2 million.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2024&season=2024

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024

This year Jarren Duran posted his single-season breakout but Devers is the highest ranked Red Sox -- position player or pitcher -- in fWAR over the three-year period. 

Setting three-year fWAR as an arbitrary parameter for established production, the Seattle Mariners have three of the Top 20 pitchers and two of the Top 20 positions players. Four of those five Mariners are younger than Devers and Duran and all remain under team control for at least three seasons.

Devers has produced modest surplus value under his long-term contract but the issue is whether Devers will continue to produce over the remaining nine years.

[moonslav59]

I still think Castillo gets traded. I'm not sure the Sox work out as a fit, and I'd rather have Lopez or Crochet. (I agree, SEA will not want Yoshida, even if they include Garver or Haniger to cut down on Yoshi's cost.)

I think the Sox may end up biting the bullet and trading Mayer for 2 years of Crochet, and hope extend him. That might "free up" enough money for us to win the Bregman or Teoscar sweepstakes, or we settle on Walker or some trade for a big RHB.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, harmony said:

Baseball Trade Values assigns Rafael Devers a surplus value

Setting three-year fWAR as an arbitrary paramenter for established production, the Seattle Mariners

There are only two teams on TalkSox: the Red Sox and the Mariners.