Rumor: Red Sox Named Finalist in Juan Soto Sweepstakes as Decision (Maybe?) Nears

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I kinda think Story was as big as JD, but within the context of losing Bogey, shortly afterwards, and the constant injuries to Trevor, it pales compared to JD.

The Story signing was one of the most underwhelming big money signings ever.  Partially because, of course, many assumed he just represented a cheaper replacement for the soon-to-be-gone Xander.

The yucks just keep coming the last last 5 years.      

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Story signing was one of the most underwhelming big money signings ever.  Partially because, of course, many assumed he just represented a cheaper replacement for the soon-to-be-gone Xander.

The yucks just keep coming the last last 5 years.      

I remember diving in very deep to the signing at the time.  One could argue Story at that point in time was better because he had better defense.

The argument was Story was helped out by Coors field, well seeing how Fenway is a hitters ballpark as well at the time I compared their away stats.  Bogaerts and Story had .002 OPS between them.  

The signing was underwhelming because ever since he's signed he's been plagued by injury and been unable to stay on the field.

In an alternate reality, a healthy Trevor Story has been an all star for the Boston Red Sox. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Story signing was one of the most underwhelming big money signings ever.  Partially because, of course, many assumed he just represented a cheaper replacement for the soon-to-be-gone Xander.

The yucks just keep coming the last last 5 years.      

Story was NOT a big signing. It was an afterthought. JD Martinez was seen as a big fish that we landed. 

The 2B/SS's in the '22 offseason ahead of Story at the time:

Correa

Seager

Semien

Baez (moon's guy at the time if I remember correctly)

Story's contract was only the 10th highest of that offseason and the contract came right before ST. Most people really didn't see the fit. For FA's that offseason, he had the 30th highest fWAR from 2021. 

JD was a guy that was targeted the whole offseason. He was coveted. He had a clear fit. There was excitement when he signed. That's not the case with Story.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

In an alternate reality, a healthy Trevor Story has been an all star for the Boston Red Sox. 

How many alternate realities would we have to create until that one occurs? 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I remember diving in very deep to the signing at the time.  One could argue Story at that point in time was better because he had better defense.

The argument was Story was helped out by Coors field, well seeing how Fenway is a hitters ballpark as well at the time I compared their away stats.  Bogaerts and Story had .002 OPS between them.  

The signing was underwhelming because ever since he's signed he's been plagued by injury and been unable to stay on the field.

In an alternate reality, a healthy Trevor Story has been an all star for the Boston Red Sox. 

Were you excited at the time about it?  I was kind of in the "scratching my head" group.  It just seemed so blatantly obvious he was here to replace Xander.  

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

How many alternate realities would we have to create until that one occurs? 

a million? ONE? WTF knows.  Guys get hurt, some guys stay healthy. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Were you excited at the time about it?  I was kind of in the "scratching my head" group.  It just seemed so blatantly obvious he was here to replace Xander.  

At the time I thought it wasn't just insurance, but also a long term fix at 2B if they were able to resign Bogaerts.  This was the year before the shift ban, and the Sox may have seen the coming increase of value in up the middle defense on both sides. 

It can both be true that they wanted to extend Bogaerts, and they had Story there to possibly move there if they could not.  

 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

At the time I thought it wasn't just insurance, but also a long term fix at 2B if they were able to resign Bogaerts.  This was the year before the shift ban, and the Sox may have seen the coming increase of value in up the middle defense on both sides. 

It can both be true that they wanted to extend Bogaerts, and they had Story there to possibly move there if they could not.  

 

But as we know their offers to Bogaerts were laughably short.  

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But as we know their offers to Bogaerts were laughably short.  

They literally extended him, he opted out.  They didn't want to re-extend him by more than a few years. 

REALLY kind of looking like the right decision right now tbh. 

There's also a difference between your first offer and your final offer.  Bogaerts already signed an extension, he already got his lesser security payday, it was obvious he was opting out and looking to maximize his pay day. 

We really can't be mad at Boston for not signing him to 11 years.  Looks like we dodged a massive bullet. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

They literally extended him, he opted out.  They didn't want to re-extend him by more than a few years. 

REALLY kind of looking like the right decision right now tbh. 

There's also a difference between your first offer and your final offer.  Bogaerts already signed an extension, he already got his lesser security payday, it was obvious he was opting out and looking to maximize his pay day. 

We really can't be mad at Boston for not signing him to 11 years.  Looks like we dodged a massive bullet. 

That's not the argument though.  Everyone agrees the contract he actually got was ridiculous.  The argument is that they could have retained him for a much more reasonable number if they really tried, instead of letting it get to the auction stage. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

That's not the argument though.  Everyone agrees the contract he actually got was ridiculous.  The argument is that they could have retained him for a much more reasonable number if they really tried, instead of letting it get to the auction stage. 

I vehemently disagree with that.

Bogaerts ALREADY signed an extension, he could of honored it to the end and made money.  His decision to opt out was all about maximizing his market.  When guys do that, they don't sign extensions unless they're getting what they think they will get in the market. 

What do you think Scott Boras thought Bogaerts was going to get?

 

[Hugh2]

Let me reiterate, I don't believe that number was reasonable.  That's why the Sox let him walk, and I think they legit would have matched but they didn't see anyone out there offering close to $300 million. 

Sox were wrong, they miscalculated and it ended massively working out in their favor. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I vehemently disagree with that.

Bogaerts ALREADY signed an extension, he could of honored it to the end and made money.  His decision to opt out was all about maximizing his market.  When guys do that, they don't sign extensions unless they're getting what they think they will get in the market. 

What do you think Scott Boras thought Bogaerts was going to get?

 

Bogaerts himself said he was just expecting a good fair negotiation and that the offer he got (one extra year for $30 million) was so disappointing that they didn't even respond to it. 

And he had shown himself to be very fair on that first extension, regardless of Boras. 

[notin]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story was NOT a big signing. It was an afterthought. JD Martinez was seen as a big fish that we landed. 

The 2B/SS's in the '22 offseason ahead of Story at the time:

Correa

Seager

Semien

Baez (moon's guy at the time if I remember correctly)

Story's contract was only the 10th highest of that offseason and the contract came right before ST. Most people really didn't see the fit. For FA's that offseason, he had the 30th highest fWAR from 2021. 

JD was a guy that was targeted the whole offseason. He was coveted. He had a clear fit. There was excitement when he signed. That's not the case with Story.

Was the JD Martínez signing really any different than Story?

JD signed very late (Feb 26) and was never really connected to any other teams.  Boston had a clear need and Martínez was a Dombrowski favorite, and that meant JD was immediately linked to Boston right away, but other than incumbent Arizona (where JD achieved Legend Status in a mere half-season) there were no other rumors.  The negotiations were probably dragged out because Boras was reportedly asking for $300mill and had written some sort of treatise about the “King Kong of Slug,” but that was all just posturing in the end.  There was no bidding war, and Martínez ultimately settled for well under half the reported asking price.

 

Really we haven’t seen Boston aggressively outbid anyone for a big contract since David Price…

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bogaerts himself said he was just expecting a good fair negotiation and that the offer he got (one extra year for $30 million) was so disappointing that they didn't even respond to it. 

And he had shown himself to be very fair on that first extension, regardless of Boras. 

Look, if we are going to blast the Red Sox for not extending guys they should have.....shouldn't they get credit for refusing to pay top dollar for a guy who has shown to NOT be worth it in his later years?

I feel like we can't play both sides of that.  Gotta pick one. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Was the JD Martínez signing really any different than Story?

JD signed very late (Feb 26) and was never really connected to any other teams.  Boston had a clear need and Martínez was a Dombrowski favorite, and that meant JD was immediately linked to Boston right away, but other than incumbent Arizona (where JD achieved Legend Status in a mere half-season) there were no other rumors.  The negotiations were probably dragged out because Boras was reportedly asking for $300mill and had written some sort of treatise about the “King Kong of Slug,” but that was all just posturing in the end.  There was no bidding war, and Martínez ultimately settled for well under half the reported asking price.

 

Really we haven’t seen Boston aggressively outbid anyone for a big contract since David Price…

Yes, people were EXCITED for JD. People didn't give a s*** about Story. JD coming here was a big deal as the Sox were trying to win a WS. Story wasn't a big deal as the Sox were clearly a waning franchise.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Was the JD Martínez signing really any different than Story?

JD signed very late (Feb 26) and was never really connected to any other teams.  Boston had a clear need and Martínez was a Dombrowski favorite, and that meant JD was immediately linked to Boston right away, but other than incumbent Arizona (where JD achieved Legend Status in a mere half-season) there were no other rumors.  The negotiations were probably dragged out because Boras was reportedly asking for $300mill and had written some sort of treatise about the “King Kong of Slug,” but that was all just posturing in the end.  There was no bidding war, and Martínez ultimately settled for well under half the reported asking price.

 

Really we haven’t seen Boston aggressively outbid anyone for a big contract since David Price…

Yes, it was different.  As you say everyone knew we wanted JD.  No one knew we wanted Story.  That's different.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Look, if we are going to blast the Red Sox for not extending guys they should have.....shouldn't they get credit for refusing to pay top dollar for a guy who has shown to NOT be worth it in his later years?

I feel like we can't play both sides of that.  Gotta pick one. 

Who? Xander? Xander was worth it in 2023. He was injured last season. Time will tell. The Padres overpaid, but I think the smaller Sox deal we were discussing at the time still would have made sense. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Look, if we are going to blast the Red Sox for not extending guys they should have.....shouldn't they get credit for refusing to pay top dollar for a guy who has shown to NOT be worth it in his later years?

I feel like we can't play both sides of that.  Gotta pick one. 

Any credit they get for Bogaerts is wiped out by Story, so a wash at best.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If you believe Cohen will not be outbid, then it can't be an embarrassment to lose the bidding war.

We'll know it's all a sham, if we lose and don't pivot to spending big on at least 2 of the remaining 5 or 6 high end FAs on the market- or one with a blockbuster trade include.

Offering Soto $45-50M a year, and losing out, followed by spending $25-30M on plan B won't cut it for this poster. If, instead, we go all out on plan B, I'll cut some slack, even if it does not end up working out.

What does "all out mean?" At minimum:

1. Burnes and or Fried

2. Scott, Hoffman, Holmes or Estevez

3. Teoscar, Bregman or Adames or a trade for a big RHB

4. D Jansen or some capable catcher to bridge to Teel

(5) We might also need a trade to add one more piece to cover expected injuries.

To be honest, I have serious doubts we do even 1, 3 and 4.

 

i think Teoscar is going to resign with the Dodgers. this was probably their Plan B after getting outbid on Soto.

[Duran Is The Man]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story was NOT a big signing. It was an afterthought. JD Martinez was seen as a big fish that we landed. 

The 2B/SS's in the '22 offseason ahead of Story at the time:

Correa

Seager

Semien

Baez (moon's guy at the time if I remember correctly)

Story's contract was only the 10th highest of that offseason and the contract came right before ST. Most people really didn't see the fit. For FA's that offseason, he had the 30th highest fWAR from 2021. 

JD was a guy that was targeted the whole offseason. He was coveted. He had a clear fit. There was excitement when he signed. That's not the case with Story.

i hated the Story signing then and now. i wanted Semien.

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Any credit they get for Bogaerts is wiped out by Story, so a wash at best.

They've certainly made their share of bad free agent signings over the last several years. 

Here's what I think NEVER happened. 

Scout "sir we've done extensive analysis of this guy called Trevor Story, on paper he's just as good maybe even better than Xander Bogaerts, but we believe his arm is about to blow up and he's going to provide almost no value going forward"

Bloom " shiiiiiiiiiiit give that guy a fat check, we need him on our roster" 

Conversations that never happened. 

Point is, the guys at the top pulling all the strings are only as good as the information they're being fed.  Sox have allegedly made massive changes in their structure and a ton of investment into their scouting and development departments the last few years. 

They obviously have seen the problem and are trying to fix it. 

Hopefully they're putting that to the text this offseason. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i hated the Story signing then and now. i wanted Semien.

And I wanted Dansby Swanson.  Both would of helped this team the last few years. 

So would Jeter Downs if he wasn't a bust. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

And I wanted Dansby Swanson.  Both would of helped this team the last few years. 

So would Jeter Downs if he wasn't a bust. 

Eew...Jeter Downs is kind of begging for the "if my aunt had balls..." line.... 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

And I wanted Dansby Swanson.  Both would of helped this team the last few years. 

So would Jeter Downs if he wasn't a bust. 

Swanson was a year later. Good case to be made that Swanson ages well and his defense provides value for a long time. 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i hated the Story signing then and now. i wanted Semien.

I don’t hate it now, as his defense is better than I realized.  But at the time Story was my least favorite option of all the FA shortstops, and without Coors I referred to him as an “overpaid Paul DeJong.”  But really he’s better than I anticipated.

That said, Bogaerts was always kind of a question mark defensively at SS, something San Diego realized one year into an 11 year contract.  Signing Story served two purposes for Boston. 1. A pre-emotive strike at replacing Bogaerts before he left, and 2. A display to the fans that the Sox were not going to be Tamoa North…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Swanson was a year later. Good case to be made that Swanson ages well and his defense provides value for a long time. 

Better case to be made that the Cubs change his position before that contract expires.  Swanson can field, but his arm is among the weakest of all MLB shortstops. Best range, weak arm.  
 

If the Cubs didn’t have a defensive magician lined up to play CF for the next 5 years, Swanson might be a candidate to move even sooner…

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Eew...Jeter Downs is kind of begging for the "if my aunt had balls..." line.... 

I thought that would get people going, but it has to make you think.  How things could of been different if things turned out differently.  At the very least, you can see the logic in the return, Sox saw a hole that needed to be filled with up the middle in coming years (even if you kept Bogaerts 2nd base has been a hole as well).

You don't have to love the trade to see the forest for the trees here. 

I can't help but look at hypotheticals....like what if, what if Martin Perez had his 2022 in 2021? and/or they picked up one more bullpen piece? Maybe we have a 2021 world series too.  People forget we were just 2 games away from an appearance 3 years ago and they don't wanna believe John Henry is about to go BALLS again despite his constant history of spend/constraint/spend/constraint/spend/constraint. 

Yes, I share your disdain for his in ability to break that cycle and retain a fan favorite (Mookie Betts)

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i hated the Story signing then and now. i wanted Semien.

A lot of people disliked the Story signing, but it was a major one, nonetheless. In terms of money, it was about the same as JD's. His defense was supposed to fix a major problem the Sox had for many seasons before the signing. His away numbers on offense were decent, but not great. They were not too far away from Bogey's away numbers, when signed.

He certainly has underperformed on expectations, due mostly to injuries but to me, it does not change the fact that it was a major addition. Within the context of all the key players we lost, starting with Kimbrell and Betts, it was far from enough, that it's easy to just discount it all together. I get that and don't disagree with that take.

I don't see the Yoshida deal in the same light, although he was mainly a DH, like JD was. When you factor in inflation and rising MLB contracts, the dollar amounts between JD and Yoshida are too far apart to count as close to the same level of signing.

The two year deal for Gio is the next highest deal given to an outsider since JD, and that speaks volumes about what we have done since 2018.

The extensions given to Sale and Nate, then the long gap to the Devers one compared to all the players who walked or were traded away is equally shocking: Betts, Bogey, JD, ERod, Price, Porcello, Beni and eventually Nate and Sale.

No Sox fans is happy about that mass exodus of talent, even if some was over-the-hill, at the time. Not replacing them, in kind, sometimes at even a fraction of their cost was ever-occurring since not replacing Kimbrell & Kelly in 2019. Year-after-year, it seemed more talent walked than was added. Only the farm's resurgence and some surprising input from DD's farm kept us from being bottom 5 in MLB, most years and allowing us to keep some sort of hope for the future..

[notin]

44 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i think Teoscar is going to resign with the Dodgers. this was probably their Plan B after getting outbid on Soto.

Teiscar might want to hear what the Mets say about this if they don’t land Soto.  And possibly even if they do…