Rumor: White Sox Want Wilyer Abreu to Headline A Potential Garrett Crochet Deal

[Matthew Lenz]

On the "Foul Territory" podcast, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com was quoted as saying "I was told that the White Sox have interest in [Wilyer] Abreu and would be satisfied with him headlining -- obviously, not being the only guy in the deal."

This should be viewed as a positive development for the Red Sox who have a surplus in the outfield, especially with prospects Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony close to getting a shot on the Big League roster. They also have a need to diversify their heavy left-handed line up and recently been tied to right-handed hitting outfielder Tesoscar Hernandez.

Abreu is coming off a Gold Glove rookie season at just 25-years-old while carrying a .781 OPS, hitting 15 runs, and stealing 8 bases. His power-over-contact approach results in quality batted ball data but also causes him to chase, whiff, and strikeout at above average rates. 

There hasn't been any indication or substantive rumors as to who the additional piece(s) might be to get the deal done, but McAdam would go on to say "They'd have to put in much more than that, including a pretty good prospect to go with him."

So what else do you think needs to be added to the deal for the Red Sox to acquire this young Ace?

View full rumor

[mvp 78]

I'd be all over that deal, I just don't believe its veracity. 

[Hugh2]

WIlyer Abreu/Franklin Arias/Wikelman Gonzelz for Garret Crochet. 

Then go out and sign Soto/Fried/Scott.

2025 world series champions. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

WIlyer Abreu/Franklin Arias/Wikelman Gonzelz for Garret Crochet. 

Then go out and sign Soto/Fried/Scott.

2025 world series champions. 

Relegate the ChiSox to AAA if that trade happens. 

 

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Relegate the ChiSox to AAA if that trade happens. 

 

Aren't they already an AAA team? 

[notin]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Relegate the ChiSox to AAA if that trade happens. 

 

Hey they didn’t get where they are by making a bunch of smart trades…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Aren't they already an AAA team? 

Not yet, but it’s one of their stretch goals for 2025…

[Hugh2]

BTV accepts.

Hey, this all plays into the fact that we don't know how teams internally evaluate players. 

Wilyer put up a 3.1 WAR as pretty much a platoon player and that's insane.  If they think he can mature into a guy who can hit LHP better they think he's a potential superstar. 

Then again, the report that the White Sox would accept Wilyer as the headliner could be erroneous but if we take it at face value that's a fair trade. 

[harmony]

56 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV accepts.

Hey, this all plays into the fact that we don't know how teams internally evaluate players. 

Wilyer put up a 3.1 WAR as pretty much a platoon player and that's insane.  If they think he can mature into a guy who can hit LHP better they think he's a potential superstar. 

Then again, the report that the White Sox would accept Wilyer as the headliner could be erroneous but if we take it at face value that's a fair trade. 

Many teams can make a Garrett Crochet offer that Baseball Trade Values accepts.

With Crochet as the apparent top trade target among starters, the White Sox may wait for an offer that represents an overpay at Baseball Trade Values.

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, harmony said:

Many teams can make a Garrett Crochet offer that Baseball Trade Values accepts.

With Crochet as the apparent top trade target among starters, the White Sox may wait for an offer that represents an overpay at Baseball Trade Values.

Perhaps, I built that trade around the rumor that they like Abreu as a headliner.  I'm not going to get hung up who the 2nd or 3rd guy in that trade will be. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

BTV accepts.

Hey, this all plays into the fact that we don't know how teams internally evaluate players. 

Wilyer put up a 3.1 WAR as pretty much a platoon player and that's insane.  If they think he can mature into a guy who can hit LHP better they think he's a potential superstar. 

Then again, the report that the White Sox would accept Wilyer as the headliner could be erroneous but if we take it at face value that's a fair trade. 

What does BTV say about the Crochet for Dominguez & Jones? 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What does BTV say about the Crochet for Dominguez & Jones? 

Overpay, but not as bad as I suspected.

 

Crochet has a surplus value of $42.2mill.  Dominguez has a surplus value of $25 mill.  Jones has a surplus value of $33.5mill.

Abreu has a surplus value of $30.3mil, putting him $28mill below the Yankee offer.  Kutter Crawford ($24mill) on his own makes up a big difference.  Or a combo of Braden Montgomery ($15mill) and Franklin Arias ($11.5) mill would also get you closer.

A trade of Abreu and either Montgomery or Arias is close to value on BTV and worth considering.  A trade of all three is far, far less favorable.  For 2 arb years of Crochet, that package makes me explore other alternatives.

A package of Abreu and Crawford?  My first thought is “Yes! Obviously!”  But second thoughts do make me wonder how much of an upgrade is Crochet over Crawford?  

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Overpay, but not as bad as I suspected.

 

Crochet has a surplus value of $42.2mill.  Dominguez has a surplus value of $25 mill.  Jones has a surplus value of $33.5mill.

Abreu has a surplus value of $30.3mil, putting him $28mill below the Yankee offer.  Kutter Crawford ($24mill) on his own makes up a big difference.  Or a combo of Braden Montgomery ($15mill) and Franklin Arias ($11.5) mill would also get you closer.

A trade of Abreu and either Montgomery or Arias is close to value on BTV and worth considering.  A trade of all three is far, far less favorable.  For 2 arb years of Crochet, that package makes me explore other alternatives.

A package of Abreu and Crawford?  My first thought is “Yes! Obviously!”  But second thoughts do make me wonder how much of an upgrade is Crochet over Crawford?  

 

 

Looks like the answer is 18.2 mill!

[Hugh2]

What BTV doesn’t tell us is how CHW values these guys internally.  If they like Abreu….they like Abreu.  Who knows 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What BTV doesn’t tell us is how CHW values these guys internally.  If they like Abreu….they like Abreu.  Who knows 

All BTV can do is tell you a trade is fair using their model.

 

Their model, for example, says a trade of Crochet and Luis Robert (total surplus value $54.4mill) for Abreu and Crawford ($54.3mill) is spot on.  But I seriously doubt the White Sox go for that. (Maybe they do for Abreu, Montgomery, and Arias?)

I can see why they have interest in Abreu.  He’s a minimum wage Gold Glove 3 WAR right fielder and last year, they had that position manned by Dominic Fletcher and Sadness…

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Looks like the answer is 18.2 mill!

Is Kutter Crawford almost as good as Garrett Crochet? Inquiring minds want to know!

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

All BTV can do is tell you a trade is fair using their model.

 

Their model, for example, says a trade of Crochet and Luis Robert (total surplus value $54.4mill) for Abreu and Crawford ($54.3mill) is spot on.  But I seriously doubt the White Sox go for that. (Maybe they do for Abreu, Montgomery, and Arias?)

I can see why they have interest in Abreu.  He’s a minimum wage Gold Glove 3 WAR right fielder and last year, they had that position manned by Dominic Fletcher and Sadness…

I don’t think Montgomery is going.  But I can see a slight upgrade from Gonzalez in the piece.  
 

if Casas/Houck/The big 4/ Montgomery are involved I want no part of it.

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is Kutter Crawford almost as good as Garrett Crochet? Inquiring minds want to know!

No but he has more team control

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No but he has more team control

And more experience as a starting pitcher…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No but he has more team control

Who cares about team control over a #4/5 starter? 

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think Montgomery is going.  But I can see a slight upgrade from Gonzalez in the piece.  
 

if Casas/Houck/The big 4/ Montgomery are involved I want no part of it.

So no one with any actual appeal in a trade.

I doubt the White Sox have any interest in dealing their best pitcher for Wikelman.  Crochet absolutely has question marks, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be available for anything…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

And more experience as a starting pitcher…

More mediocre experience.

Crawford 23 AND 24: 4.6 bWAR

Crochet 24: 4.1 bWAR 

He's half the pitcher Crochet is. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who cares about team control over a #4/5 starter? 

A team whose fifth starter was some guy named Davis Martin.

Ir maybe it was Martin Davis?  Doesn’t really matter…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

More mediocre experience.

Crawford 23 AND 24: 4.6 bWAR

Crochet 24: 4.1 bWAR 

He's half the pitcher Crochet is. 

You left out that Crochet has 30 more IP in his career than Crawford had last year. Plus one more TJ…

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who cares about team control over a #4/5 starter? 

30 mlb teams?

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

You left out that Crochet has 30 more IP in his career than Crawford had last year. Plus one more TJ…

Kutter Crawford sucks. We all wanted him to have a good season last year and he beefed it big time. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

30 mlb teams?

The other 29 can have Kutter. Sox will hit ding dongs whenever they face him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

More mediocre experience.

Crawford 23 AND 24: 4.6 bWAR

Crochet 24: 4.1 bWAR 

He's half the pitcher Crochet is. 

But by allowing almost twice as many homers!

If the Red Sox do trade Crawford, they must know Giolito (HR king of '23) is coming back or they're confident Bello will give up more longballs... because their rotation has to lead the league in something (besides Most Cy Young Winners the season after leaving Boston).

[notin]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Kutter Crawford sucks. We all wanted him to have a good season last year and he beefed it big time. 

How many “4th/5th starters” made 32 starts, pitched 180 IP, and were worth 2 bWAR?

He’s not a great pithcher, but he is a good one.  And his durability last year has value.

He won’t be part of a trade for Crochet, but that doesn’t make him worthless…

[Hugh2]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The other 29 can have Kutter. Sox will hit ding dongs whenever they face him.

I mean, the #4 #5 starter on most teams isn't that great.