Article: More Red Sox Trade Rumors from the GM Meetings: What Would a Garrett Crochet Trade Look Like?

[Davy Andrews]

The Red Sox are reportedly in the thick of the Crochet sweepstakes. What would they have to give up to make a deal happen?

The General Manager Meetings in San Antonio wrapped up on Thursday, and a few small pieces of news made the headlines. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported, “there’s now an industry-wide sense that the Sox have arrived at a more clear-eyed and ambitious stage of roster-building than they pursued a year ago.” Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged that the team is looking for an ace to lead a staff that performed very well but lacked a top-end starter in 2024. “I think we have to,” Breslow said. “We have lofty goals. We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation. I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”

There are free agent options available in Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell, along with pitchers in the next tier, like Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Sean Manaea, and Yusei Kikuchi. You could certainly argue that the Red Sox would hold onto their top prospects and sign one of those pitchers. Even for a team that’s ready to run a payroll that reaches the luxury tax, keeping young, cost-controlled talent at key positions is part of what helps create sustainable success. We just watched the Orioles get accused of “prospect hoarding” for years as they built themselves into one of the best teams in baseball, only shelling out for pitching help once they were ready to compete for a championship. For that reason, I’d like to focus on the most obvious trade candidate today: left-handed starter Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. According to Sean McAdam of MassLive, the Red Sox are definitely involved in talks for Crochet. He wrote:

Quote

“I think they’re right in the thick of things,” said a baseball person with knowledge of the White Sox’ thinking. “It will come down to (what they’re willing to offer), but from a talent standpoint, they match up well. They didn’t show as much interest (as others) at the trade deadline (last summer), but the interest has increased in the offseason and they’re sending the message: ‘We want to be involved in this, we want to be involved in these talks.’

“I definitely think they’re one of five or so teams that are legitimate, real teams that match up prospect-wise.”

When the White Sox consider trading Crochet, they already have a framework in mind: the Dylan Cease deal from March of this year. That’s not just speculation. General manager Matt Getz told reporters, “In our minds, we’ve got a threshold [for making a deal], and it is nice to have [the Cease trade] to work off of that wasn’t too long ago.” What did the Padres give the White Sox in order to land Cease? In exchange for two arbitration years of a legitimate ace, they received middle reliever Steven Wilson along with three prospects: Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, and Samuel Zavala. Thorpe and Iriarte, both pitchers, were mature top-100 prospects; FanGraphs had just ranked Iriarte 61st and Thorpe 73rd when the trade went down, and they both made their debuts this season. Zavala, a teenaged outfielder, was considered little more than a lottery pick and he did not hit in 2024.

If the Red Sox were to land Crochet, they'd be sending position players rather than pitchers. The White Sox would be happy with that. Getz told Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, "We are focusing on position player return, That is our primary focus in any trade talks. The right players have to be there. We can’t force anything. We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear."

As it happens, the Red Sox currently have four non-pitching prospects who rank in the top 100 on FanGraphs’ board and six who rank in the top 100 according to MLB Pipeline. The Big Four, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel, and Kristian Campbell, are all ranked in the top 20 according to MLB Pipeline, which puts them at least a couple tiers above Thorpe and Zavala. Players like Braden Montgomery, Franklin Arias, and Miguel Bleis. are much more analogous to Thorpe and Zavala, two players on the back half of the top 100, except for one crucial detail: they're younger and much further from being big-league ready than the talent the White Sox got when they traded Cease. Mayer and Anthony are both considered among the very best prospects in the game, while FanGraphs has Teel ranked 42nd and Bleis 54th. There are rumors that Anthony is considered untouchable, and you have to think Teel is unlikely to be moved, as the Red Sox very much need catching help, both in the present and for the long haul. They still need one catcher to fill out the roster, and by far the best option in a lackluster free agent market is Danny Jansen, who finished the season with the Red Sox.

The other issue is that Boston's glut of outfielders means that the team might be willing to part with Wilyer Abreu. Considering Jarren Duran's breakout season and Ceddanne Rafaela's long-term contract, Abreu seems most likely t o be the odd man out. On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine the White Sox surrendering their last blockbuster trade piece without prying away either of Boston’s crown jewels in Mayer or Anthony. Given that they’re several tiers above the prospects the White Sox got for Cease, if they were to move, I would then expect two or three lesser prospects to go along as well. This is all speculation, but the point is that if the Red Sox were to make a deal for Crochet, it would likely look pretty different from the Cease deal.

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[mvp 78]

The White Sox are going to ask for too much for a guy who has only thrown 219 innings and is only controllable through 2026. 

Sorry, Cease is NOT comparable. 

[Bellhorn04]

I think I'd rather some other team stitch together a deal for him.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think I'd rather some other team stitch together a deal for him.

I would NOT trade multiple top 100 guys for him. He couldn't pitch the whole season. He didn't want to be traded during the year. He has no track record. We see pitchers fall off really quick due to injury. This guy seems like he'd be a prime case for that. 

[Bellhorn04]

He also kind of sucked when he pitched in the second half.

This guy does seem to have all the makings of a wildly overhyped player.  

[mvp 78]

 

[Hitch]

McAdam has said that he thinks Abreu and Crawford plus another low to mid prospect gets it done. 

 

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat personally. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

McAdam has said that he thinks Abreu and Crawford plus another low to mid prospect gets it done. 

 

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat personally. 

I'd do Abreu, Crawford and Fitts. It may not work out, but it's a great upside play and doesn't kill you if it fails. 

[Hitch]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I'd do Abreu, Crawford and Fitts. It may not work out, but it's a great upside play and doesn't kill you if it fails. 

Same. If you can sign him to an extension as is being rumoured too - I think it's almost a no brainer.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Same. If you can sign him to an extension as is being rumoured too - I think it's almost a no brainer.

If they trade for him, an extension needs to get done within a week or two. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Both Abreu and Crochet will be 26 in June. With the surplus of young position players, the Red Sox have to be willing to swap Wilyer for an All-Star lefty starting pitcher.

2024 Abreu: 3.5 WAR 15 HR 58 RBI 125 Ks .253 BA .781 OPS

Here's another young outfielder Boston recently traded, with age 26 batting stats in the year he also won a Gold Glove...

2016 Benintendi: 2.6 WAR 17 HR 73 RBI 97 Ks .276 BA ,766 OPS

Here's one more BoSox farmhand who was once traded for a pitcher (except the arm was attached to a 37-year old), and his age 26 Gold Glove season...

1994 Bagwell: 8.2 WAR 39 HR 116 RBI 65 Ks .368 BA 1.201 OPS

Moral of the Post: trade Wilyer Benintendi for Crochet... but don't trade any Bagwells.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Both Abreu and Crochet will be 26 in June. With the surplus of young position players, the Red Sox have to be willing to swap Wilyer for an All-Star lefty starting pitcher.

2024 Abreu: 3.5 WAR 15 HR 58 RBI 125 Ks .253 BA .781 OPS

Here's another young outfielder Boston recently traded, with age 26 batting stats in the year he also won a Gold Glove...

2016 Benintendi: 2.6 WAR 17 HR 73 RBI 97 Ks .276 BA ,766 OPS

Here's one more BoSox farmhand who was once traded for a pitcher (except the arm was attached to a 37-year old), and his age 26 Gold Glove season...

1994 Bagwell: 8.2 WAR 39 HR 116 RBI 65 Ks .368 BA 1.201 OPS

Moral of the Post: trade Wilyer Benintendi for Crochet... but don't trade any Bagwells.

The Bagwells would be Campbell, Anthony Bleis, Cespedes and maybe Montgomery. I'm not saying they will be, but they are the guys with that ceiling. Unfortunately, you have to risk it and trade high ceiling guys from time to time. 

Bagwell 1998 New Britain Red Sox:

136 G

4 HR

422 OBP

457 SLG

73 BB

57 K

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The Bagwells would be Campbell, Anthony Bleis, Cespedes and maybe Montgomery. I'm not saying they will be, but they are the guys with that ceiling. Unfortunately, you have to risk it and trade high ceiling guys from time to time. 

Bagwell 1998 New Britain Red Sox:

136 G

4 HR

422 OBP

457 SLG

73 BB

57 K

Those 4 HRs (you meant to type 1990, his last year in the minors) is why Lou Gorman should've consulted his farm directors and scouts, who knew Bagwell's potential.

That season he led the Eastern League in hits, doubles, triples, total bases, and was second in OBP, OPS and BA -- .333, one point behind a guy with over 100 less PA.

Jeff's 4 HR were second to team-leader Eric Wedge's 5... don't know if you've ever been to the "old" Beehive Stadium, but back then the bees themselves had to be on steroids to fly from home plate over the fence.

At the time, I think the all-time NB season record was held by Ellis Burks -- who hit 14 total. Mo Vaughn, who was from Connecticut, led the club one year with 8.

[harmony]

Should the Red Sox trade Walter Abreu, Kutter Crawford and two prospects for Garrett Crochet?

https://fansided.com/mlb-rumors-red-sox-garrett-crochet-trade-white-sox-protecting-big-4

A year ago today Baseball Trade Values assigned Crochet a negative trade value:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/146753

 

 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Those 4 HRs (you meant to type 1990, his last year in the minors) is why Lou Gorman should've consulted his farm directors and scouts, who knew Bagwell's potential.

That season he led the Eastern League in hits, doubles, triples, total bases, and was second in OBP, OPS and BA -- .333, one point behind a guy with over 100 less PA.

Jeff's 4 HR were second to team-leader Eric Wedge's 5... don't know if you've ever been to the "old" Beehive Stadium, but back then the bees themselves had to be on steroids to fly from home plate over the fence.

At the time, I think the all-time NB season record was held by Ellis Burks -- who hit 14 total. Mo Vaughn, who was from Connecticut, led the club one year with 8.

He was a little bit of a different hitter in 1998!

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, harmony said:

Should the Red Sox trade Walter Abreu, Kutter Crawford and two prospects for Garrett Crochet?

https://fansided.com/mlb-rumors-red-sox-garrett-crochet-trade-white-sox-protecting-big-4

A year ago today Baseball Trade Values assigned Crochet a negative trade value:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/146753

 

 

I think Crochet is too unproven to give up a top 4-5 prospect. For all we know, Crawford might be better, next year.

[harmony]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Crochet is too unproven to give up a top 4-5 prospect. For all we know, Crawford might be better, next year.

A podcaster proposes a trade of Garrett Crochet for Wilyer Abreu, Franklin Arias, Yoeilin Cespedes and Wikelman Gonzalez:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3Fl-mZsukA

At 8:45.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, harmony said:

A podcaster proposes a trade of Garrett Crochet for Wilyer Abreu, Franklin Arias, Yoeilin Cespedes and Wikelman Gonzalez:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3Fl-mZsukA

At 8:45.

Take out Arias and I'd do it. Take out only Cespedes, and It's a close call.

[Larry Cook]

What does an extension for crochet look like??? 

[moonslav59]

Let me just say this: if Crochet is an ace, then so is Houck, and we already have one.

(I'd like Crochet in our rotation, but not at the cost some seem to think it will be.)