Rumor: Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox?

[Matthew Lenz]

On a recent Baseball Tonight podcast, Buster Olney said "I think it’s a slam dunk he’s going to be traded, and the two teams I’m watching are the Mets and the Red Sox.”

This would be a great get for a Red Sox team that needs an "Ace" to lead their already solid rotation. While the cost will require a massive amount of prospect capital, Olney further stated that “teams that are trying to acquire Crochet know that he will sign an extension" so this would be more than just a two-year "rental".

The 25-year-old southpaw became a full-time starter in 2024 after three seasons in a relief role and posted a 3.58 ERA / 2.69 FIP and an elite 29.6% K-BB rate across 146 innings. His 97 mile-per-hour fastball was one of the most effective pitches in baseball holding opponents to a .198 batting average and producing a run value of 15. He also has a cutter, sweeper, and changeup.

Yes, the price will be immense but acquiring an elite 25-year-old, controllable starter is hard to pass up.

View full rumor

[Duran Is The Man]

elite?

[notin]

3.02 ERA in the first half.  5.12 ERA in the second, and only pitched 38 IP after the break.   I’d go very light on the prospect capital…

[moonslav59]

Too unproven to give a big package.

Abreu, DHam and Dobbins?

[Duran Is The Man]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Too unproven to give a big package.

Abreu, DHam and Dobbins?

that's more than fair IMHO.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

that's more than fair IMHO.

They probably get a better offer.

Would you offer?

Abreu, Arias and Dobbins

or

Abreu, DHam and Fitts

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Too unproven to give a big package.

Abreu, DHam and Dobbins?

That’s one of those deals that works on BTV but might not interest the White Sox relative to other offers…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

3.02 ERA in the first half.  5.12 ERA in the second, and only pitched 38 IP after the break.   I’d go very light on the prospect capital…

Why not? Boston hasn't acquired a starting pitcher who had a good first half for the White Sox and a bad second half in at least... a year.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

That’s one of those deals that works on BTV but might not interest the White Sox relative to other offers…

Hey, they had good luck with the last Abreu!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Too unproven to give a big package.

Abreu, DHam and Dobbins?

This should be worth it to both clubs. Keep the Big Four, Casas and Duran. Abreu is blocking Anthony, and is the top trade chip by default.

I'm also not trading Arias this winter -- not with the uncertainty of Mayer's durability the past two seasons. One of them may be the shortstop of future Boston core teams, but Arias is noted for his glove, while Mayer's potential is more with his elite bat.

Plus, Trevor Story is under contract for three more years, and the next time he goes on the IL we should get to see and evaluate Mayer on the big league stage.

Trade for Crochet and sign Manaea, a starter who worked well with Andrew Bailey in San Fran in 2023. Sign Higashioka to partner with Wong. Higgie has a productive righty bat, hitting 17 homers last season. 

Spend the rest of the budget on the bullpen.

[notin]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This should be worth it to both clubs. Keep the Big Four, Casas and Duran. Abreu is blocking Anthony, and is the top trade chip by default.

I'm also not trading Arias this winter -- not with the uncertainty of Mayer's durability the past two seasons. One of them may be the shortstop of future Boston core teams, but Arias is noted for his glove, while Mayer's potential is more with his elite bat.

Plus, Trevor Story is under contract for three more years, and the next time he goes on the IL we should get to see and evaluate Mayer on the big league stage.

Trade for Crochet and sign Manaea, a starter who worked well with Andrew Bailey in San Fran in 2023. Sign Higashioka to partner with Wong. Higgie has a productive righty bat, hitting 17 homers last season. 

Spend the rest of the budget on the bullpen.

I’d be surprised if the Sox were able to acquire Crochet without giving up one of the Big Four.  I think that offer is beatable and probably by a few teams.

Of course, sometimes things that shock me do happen. (Shout out to Nick Pivetta.) And the White Sox did take what appeared to be a very light and beatable package for Erick Fedde.

Manaea received a QO, about as surprising as Pivetta receiving one.  I think that keeps the Sox away.  The Sox weren’t bad enough to get a protected first rounder, were they?

[mvp 78]

Mayer for Crochet straight up. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer for Crochet straight up. 

Close call, for me. Mayer stock has fallen, in my eyes, but I'm not sure by this much. If an extension was part of the deal, I'd be okay with it.

I also like Arias, a lot.

Would you and the CWS do Mayer and Rafaela for Crochet and Roberts?

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Close call, for me. Mayer stock has fallen, in my eyes, but I'm not sure by this much. If an extension was part of the deal, I'd be okay with it.

I also like Arias, a lot.

Would you and the CWS do Mayer and Rafaela for Crochet and Roberts?

I guess that would mean Duran is the fulltime CFer and Robert is LF for the next 3 years? Fine. Robert is a big injury risk guy.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer for Crochet straight up. 

BTV hates it but the White Sox probably love it.

Id do Teel before Mayer personally…

[win red sox]

Cease was traded for the #85 prospect, the number 7 and 8 in in padres system and a reliever.  I might be out of pocket here but Mayer would be be a significant overpay.  Trading Mayer to me would be a mistake unless it was for a Sale type pitcher. What's the odds of Story missing significant time? If he does play most of the season is his contract moveable next off-season? As for a trade package for Crochet I would draw the line at:

mlb #95 Arias

system #8 Bleis

system #11 Sandlin

system #12 Fitts

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, win red sox said:

Cease was traded for the #85 prospect, the number 7 and 8 in in padres system and a reliever.  I might be out of pocket here but Mayer would be be a significant overpay.  Trading Mayer to me would be a mistake unless it was for a Sale type pitcher. What's the odds of Story missing significant time? If he does play most of the season is his contract moveable next off-season? As for a trade package for Crochet I would draw the line at:

mlb #95 Arias

system #8 Bleis

system #11 Sandlin

system #12 Fitts

 

I'd rather trade Mayer than give up Arias, Bleis, Sandlin and Fitts. 

[win red sox]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather trade Mayer than give up Arias, Bleis, Sandlin and Fitts. 

Wow. Ok this I don't get.  Bleis's. stock has dropped off significantly. Sandlin is a potential 7th inning reliever and Fitts is a up and down starter which we have plenty of.  So you must be hung up on Arias is going to be better than Mayer.  Interesting.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, win red sox said:

Wow. Ok this I don't get.  Bleis's. stock has dropped off significantly. Sandlin is a potential 7th inning reliever and Fitts is a up and down starter which we have plenty of.  So you must be hung up on Arias is going to be better than Mayer.  Interesting.

Sandlin has starter upside. The Red Sox and scouts still believe he's a starter going forward. I haven't heard SoxProspects even hint at a bullpen role going forward. If he was a relief profile, he wouldn't be ranked anywhere near the top 10. 

Bleis started off slow at Salem, but ended very strong. He struggled after a move to Greenville and was popping everything up. The belief is that an offseason tweak will turn things around for him.

Arias showed a lot of potential in FCL. He struggled at Salem as many hitters due because that park is awful and it's a big transition. I'm not super high on him but am interested in following him going forward. 

Fitts is an up and down guy now, but provides 6 years of value for an MLB arm going forward. 

Mayer is an oft injured SS who struggles with offspeed pitches and has split concerns. He is not the high ceiling prospect that some people believe he is. He won't be a perennial All Star. He won't match the production of Xander Bogaerts. His best case scenario is a tier below like Brandon Crawford, a valuable starter long term who may have some breakout seasons here and there. 

[mvp 78]

To me, I just believe there's value in the quantity and quality of prospects # 7, 8, 11 and 12 vs the quality of this # 2. 

If the trade was Arias, Fitts and Sandlin vs Mayer, I'd probably rather have Mayer. It's just the overall quantity and quality of the people added to the trade that gave me pause as well as my overall feelings on Mayer. 

[win red sox]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, I just believe there's value in the quantity and quality of prospects # 7, 8, 11 and 12 vs the quality of this # 2. 

If the trade was Arias, Fitts and Sandlin vs Mayer, I'd probably rather have Mayer. It's just the overall quantity and quality of the people added to the trade that gave me pause as well as my overall feelings on Mayer. 

I think we just have different opinions on Mayer's future and that's fine.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I guess that would mean Duran is the fulltime CFer and Robert is LF for the next 3 years? Fine. Robert is a big injury risk guy.

The White Sox only owe Robert $19 million. Would it be worth it to a rebuilding team shedding payroll to exchange him for Rafaela, who is under contract for $44 million?

They might prefer instead a top prospect making MLB minimum wage.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The White Sox only owe Robert $19 million. Would it be worth it to a rebuilding team shedding payroll to exchange him for Rafaela, who is under contract for $44 million?

They might prefer instead a top prospect making MLB minimum wage.

I don't know what Robert's value is at the moment. He's a big injury guy coming off a bad year, but has team control through 2027. I'm not sure what team would give up a top prospect for him. 

[Larry Cook]

Abreau, Hamilton and criswell for crochet 

[moonslav59]

On 11/7/2024 at 10:00 AM, mvp 78 said:

I guess that would mean Duran is the fulltime CFer and Robert is LF for the next 3 years? Fine. Robert is a big injury risk guy.

I'm not sure we want Roberts, but he's a better hitter than Rafaela and bats RH'd. He'd have to hit better to make losing Rafaela's glove worth it.

Keeping the trade simple, makes more sense. Mayb e we could pry a RP'er from the CWS with Crochet for Mayer, but do they have anyone?

Maybe Soroka? (5 BB/9 but a 68 ERA-)