Article: Extending Roman Anthony Should Be a Priority for the Red Sox This Offseason

[Patrick Callahan]

The future is now for the Red Sox. It's time to make sure the best prospect in baseball stays in Boston.

The Boston Red Sox have big plans this offseason and nobody knows exactly what they are. Spending big money or prospect capital on a starting pitcher looks to be a guarantee, as is finding a way to add an impact right-hander to the lineup. Triston Casas also seems to be on the docket this offseason, whether that means the Red Sox will him for starting pitching or extend him (like they should). In my opinion, it's possible that Fenway Sports Group put out these rumors as a bargaining ploy, hoping to entice Casas to find a middle ground at the negotiating table, but there's no way to know. The team could have avoided this by extending him before he played a major-league game and had the chance to be one of the best hitters in baseball. That brings us to Roman Anthony, the team's (and maybe the sport's) top prospect. Craig Breslow should sign Roman Anthony to a long-term contract and have him penciled into the lineup on Opening Day. After watching this year’s playoffs, two things are clear: rookies are capable of performing in the playoffs at the highest stage, and you must spend in order to win.

Before the season started, the Milwaukee Brewers signed Jackson Chourio to an eight-year, $82-million contract before he'd ever played a game in the major leagues. Some people called them crazy, and some people pleaded with their teams to do the same with their top prospect. Those in the latter camp proved to be right. Chourio had a spectacular season and proved that he's well worth the contract. In San Diego, rookie Jackson Merrill was even better. Chourio was the higher-rated prospect but after both of their respective rookie seasons, if Merrill were to get an extension today it would likely overshadow Chourio’s. This is exactly what the Red Sox are dealing with right now with Casas, and it might be avoidable with Anthony.

Since the trade of now three-time World Series champion Mookie Betts, the Boston front office has made it abundantly clear that the goal is to build a strong core of young talent, then supplement it with free-agent acquisitions. With the arrival of the team's top prospects imminent, it is time to pay EVERYONE. Casas will certainly be asking for (and hopefully get) a large deal, and Anthony could be the cornerstone of one of the most historic franchises in sports for what might, in a few years, be pennies on the dollar in a few years.

The trend of handing out extensions to young, unproven players has been accelerating, across the league. The Red Sox did it just last year with Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela. As a highly-rated prospect who received an average annual value in excess of $10 million, Chourio would be more apt comparison to Anthony than Bello or Rafaela. Anthony will no doubt want more than Chourio, but that's a good benchmark for a potential extension.

There's no way to know what either side might have in mind in terms of either years or dollars, but Breslow should be prepared sign Anthony long-term and commit to the plan of developing and keeping the team's major-league talent, then making free-agent splashes to supplement the roster. With all the young talent ready to fight for major league spots, it's time to make definitive, franchise-altering moves. Locking up the number one prospect in baseball should be at the top of the list.

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[Bellhorn04]

Obviously this is mostly about Anthony, but since you also brought an extension for Casas into it a couple of times, I think he's fair game too!

Casas might actually be more of a case for caution in these early extensions. 

There's plenty to like about Casas's power and his patient, methodical approach at the plate. 

But now for the reality check:

In 840 MLB PA's, Casas has an fWAR of 2.7, which makes him roughly an average player on a rate basis.  His WAR gets hammered by poor defense and lack of speed - as it should. 

The other issue of course is that Casas had a long and troubling stint on the IL due to an injury in his rib cage area.  No one really knows if this is an injury that will continue to hinder his career.

For those reasons I think the Sox may have lucked out in Casas turning down their first extension offer, and he might not get a second.  I like him because he's homegrown, he has a personality and he has the aforementioned power and excellent approach at the plate.  But the hard cold reality is that the rest of his game is weak, and overall he's probably an average MLB first baseman with injury concerns.  All of which just illustrates that it isn't always a slam dunk to tie up the kids, with some you're better off to get the cheap production while it lasts.    

[Larry Cook]

The outfield has 

left handed batter Duran in left field. Defense is average plus. Had a great year offensively. Speed to burn. 4 more years of control! Is he a core member of our team going forward or is he a one year wonder? 

Right handed batter rafeala in centerfield. Defense is above average. Has a lot to work on offensively and chasing bad pitches. Above average speed. Signed a long term contract earlier this year. will the bat improve if he plays one position in 2025? 
 

left handed batter abreau in right field. Defense is above average. Had a decent year with the bat, but huge splits and should sit versus lefties. Average speed. 5 years of control. Is he an ascending player or trade bait? 
 

right handed bat refsynder. Below average to decent defender. Had a decent year with the bat. Huge splits, hits lefties well! Below average to decent speed. Will he retire or play out the contract? 
 

The elephant  in the room is left handed bat Anthony! Defense is average. The bat had the potential to be outstanding. Speed is average plus.  Only 20 years old! Does he start the year in Worcester ????

Outfield looks to be positioned well for the next 5 years with Montgomery and Gracia in the pipeline! 

[Hitch]

I'd trade Casas and Abreu for pitching. Take the risk and extend Anthony if you can.  I'm glad we didn't sign Casas now (I was calling for it). 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not really in favor of trading Casas, but if the team decides to do something dramatic and move Devers to first, that's obviously a different story.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not really in favor of trading Casas, but if the team decides to do something dramatic and move Devers to first, that's obviously a different story.

That would definitely be my reason for it. If they've no interest in moving Devers across, there's less scope for it.

 

But I share the same concerns you've highlighted above. 

[mvp 78]

22 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The outfield has 

left handed batter Duran in left field. Defense is average plus. Had a great year offensively. Speed to burn. 4 more years of control! Is he a core member of our team going forward or is he a one year wonder? 

Right handed batter rafeala in centerfield. Defense is above average. Has a lot to work on offensively and chasing bad pitches. Above average speed. Signed a long term contract earlier this year. will the bat improve if he plays one position in 2025? 
 

left handed batter abreau in right field. Defense is above average. Had a decent year with the bat, but huge splits and should sit versus lefties. Average speed. 5 years of control. Is he an ascending player or trade bait? 
 

right handed bat refsynder. Below average to decent defender. Had a decent year with the bat. Huge splits, hits lefties well! Below average to decent speed. Will he retire or play out the contract? 
 

The elephant  in the room is left handed bat Anthony! Defense is average. The bat had the potential to be outstanding. Speed is average plus.  Only 20 years old! Does he start the year in Worcester ????

Outfield looks to be positioned well for the next 5 years with Montgomery and Gracia in the pipeline! 

Anthony hasn't shown the split issues that Duran has always shown. He should be better at the MLB level vs LHP than Duran. Abreu has a big split concern. Duran has a mild split concern. Not worried about Anthony yet. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony hasn't shown the split issues that Duran has always shown. He should be better at the MLB level vs LHP than Duran. Abreu has a big split concern. Duran has a mild split concern. Not worried about Anthony yet. 

This is as good a reason as any to deal a prospect or two for roster needs -- when pro evaluators tout your org with its deepest prospect capital in years, and before these Top 100 hopefuls reach the big leagues...

... that is; before potential flaws, deficits and warts are exposed that may diminish trade returns.

At times like this, it's also vital for the front office to trust its farm brass -- and not make them cry, like Lou Gorman did when he gave away Jeff Bagwell.

[mvp 78]

Would love the Sox to do some long term extensions. Anthony would be high on my list. 

[moonslav59]

On 11/3/2024 at 9:03 AM, Larry Cook said:

The outfield has 

left handed batter Duran in left field. Defense is average plus. Had a great year offensively. Speed to burn. 4 more years of control! Is he a core member of our team going forward or is he a one year wonder? 

Right handed batter rafeala in centerfield. Defense is above average. Has a lot to work on offensively and chasing bad pitches. Above average speed. Signed a long term contract earlier this year. will the bat improve if he plays one position in 2025? 
 

left handed batter abreau in right field. Defense is above average. Had a decent year with the bat, but huge splits and should sit versus lefties. Average speed. 5 years of control. Is he an ascending player or trade bait? 
 

right handed bat refsynder. Below average to decent defender. Had a decent year with the bat. Huge splits, hits lefties well! Below average to decent speed. Will he retire or play out the contract? 
 

The elephant  in the room is left handed bat Anthony! Defense is average. The bat had the potential to be outstanding. Speed is average plus.  Only 20 years old! Does he start the year in Worcester ????

Outfield looks to be positioned well for the next 5 years with Montgomery and Gracia in the pipeline! 

I would say Duran is an excellent defensive player.

I am not worried about Anthony's splits, right now. I am worried about Abreu's splits. Rafaela's splits are close together, but neither is good.