Article: The Red Sox Need a Lefty Arm More Than a Righty Bat

[Davy Andrews]

Yes, the Red Sox could use a right-handed bat, but their need for a left-on-left bullpen arm is even more acute.

It’s a fun time to be a Red Sox fan. Although the 2024 season almost certainly didn’t go quite as well as you might have hoped, the team is bursting with prospects, young big-league talent, and potential. It’s a time for dreaming big, and those dreams should include offseason spending. The Red Sox have indicated that they’ll be making big moves over the winter, so you should absolutely be drooling over the list of pending free agents like it’s a dessert menu. Like many other outlets, we here at Talk Sox have written a lot of words about the team’s need for a right-handed hitter to balance out the overwhelmingly left-handed lineup. However, I’d like to point out something pretty simple: Boston’s need for left-handed pitching is more pressing than its need for right-handed hitting.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, when they were at the plate, the Red Sox found themselves with the platoon advantage 59% of the time in 2024, which ranked seventh in baseball. Having a lineup stacked with lefties will help toward that end, as most pitchers (and most people) are right-handed. But let’s look at the other side of the coin. In 2024, Boston pitchers faced 6,154 total batters, and they had the platoon advantage in 50.6% of those plate appearances. That was the absolute lowest percentage in baseball. The league average was 57.5%, 25 of the 30 teams were above 55%, and no other team was below 52.5%. The Red Sox were dead last – emphasis on dead. 

The reason for this was simple: They had no lefties. Left-handed pitchers were on the mound for just 10.8% of their total plate appearances, which ranked 28th out of the 30 teams. When they faced left-handed hitters, the Red Sox had the platoon advantage just 7% of the time. 27 of the other 29 teams were above 24%. By FanGraphs WAR, here were Boston’s five most valuable left-handed pitchers in 2024:

1. James Paxton, who made three starts with the Sox before injuring his calf.
2. Cam Booser, who ran a solid 3.38 ERA and 3.80 FIP over 42.2 relief innings.
3. Brennan Bernardino, who ran a serviceable 4.06 ERA and 4.15 ERA over 51 relief innings.
4. Joe Jacques, who pitched 1.2 innings and allowed one earned run.
5. Dominic Smith, who pitched three innings and is not a pitcher.

Booser put up a genuinely nice season, and Bernardino was solid, despite taking a step back from a great 2023 campaign. But that’s really it. Bernardino ranked 12th on the team in innings pitched and Booser ranked 14th. No lefty was in the top 10. No other lefty threw more than 18 innings for the Red Sox this season. Dom Smith – who again is a first baseman – was their fifth-most valuable left-handed pitcher.

At this point, I want to stop and make it clear that I’m not the world’s biggest worrier about platoon advantage. Generally speaking, I think it’s much more important to just go out and get the best players you can and deploy them wisely. The Mariners 52.5% of the time, which ranked them in 29th place, just ahead of the Red Sox, and the Mariners arguably had the best pitching staff in baseball. They had righties pitching 93.7% of the time, and because their righties were really good, it worked out just fine. Besides, these days, there’s a lot more to batter-hitter matchups than handedness. You can also look at how the hitter does against certain pitch types, or to get even more in the weeds, how their bat path lines up against the pitcher’s arm angle and pitch shapes. Every team in baseball is looking at this information while making matchup decisions. Pitching-savvy teams like the Rays work hard to keep a great deal of arm-angle diversity on their staff.

That said, this stuff does matter, and it matters all the when you’re talking about relievers. If you’ve got a great lefty, you can save them for a high-leverage moment where they can have an outsized effect on the outcome of the game. I’m not saying that the Red Sox need to go out and stock up on left-handed arms, but having one real left-handed weapon coming out of the bullpen would fill a real hole on the roster. 

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[moonslav59]

Good article.

We certainly need a LH's RP'er, and I'll go farther and say the need for a RHB is overblown. I'd like one, yes, but it's not as high a priority as a LH's RP, a solid SP and another solid RP'er or three.

Just get a serviceable RHB catcher, and count of Story, Campbell and Ref to do the rest. Also, Anthony is no platoon player. He hits lefties, very well. 

[notin]

I’ve been saying - top priority should be Tanner Scott…

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ve been saying - top priority should be Tanner Scott…

I'm a very new member of the Tanner Scott bandwagon, he would look good in red. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm a very new member of the Tanner Scott bandwagon, he would look good in red. 

IDK, his changeup REALLY concerns me. RV/100 of -2.1 offsets his 2.5 for the 4 seamer. Would he be able to survive if he scrapped it and became a two pitch pitcher?!?!? He's also the WRONG SIDE OF 30. 

[Hugh2]

Casas has put up a .772 OPS vs. lhp and might even improve so if he's healthy we're not losing much in the infield, we might even better vs. LHP than RHP if Campbell excels and Story stays healthy.  

It's hard to bank on Rookie, but Roman Anthony shows promise, despite being a left handed hitter facing left handed pitching does not phase him one bit.  In 2023 he put up a .902/1.092 OPS vs. LHP in Greenville then Portland and in 2024 he put up a .893/.915 OPS vs. LHP in Portland and then Worcester. 

If he's elite, and it looks like he could be, you have to throw the lefty righty thing out the window.  Sometimes really good hitters just hit pitchers....weird I know. 

That might be enough if you can fill in the gaps with righty bench bats, guys like Refsnyder, and maybe another piece. 

Here's a consideration, the Sox as a team put up a .728 OPS vs. LHP compared to a .747 OPS vs. RHP. 

Yeah, pitching is priority. 

[Bellhorn04]

On the RH bat thing, here's what might be the most telling 2024 split:

Red Sox LHB at Fenway .775

Red Sox RHB at Fenway .698

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

On the RH bat thing, here's what might be the most telling 2024 split:

Red Sox LHB at Fenway .775

Red Sox RHB at Fenway .698

O'Neilll: 808 Home, 883 Away

Refsnyder: 776 Home, 875 Away

Wong: 788 Home, 732 Away

Romy: 695 Home, 745 Away

Rafaela: 661 Home, 667 Away

[mvp 78]

I think the RHB's they had were very flawed. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’ve been saying - top priority should be Tanner Scott…

As much as I rant about adding a solid SP'er, I agree that Tanner Scott should be target #1.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’ve been saying - top priority should be Tanner Scott…

As an informed fan, I would be remiss if I wasn't intrigued and interested in Scott, and plan to closely monitor his status as the market develops throughtout the offseason, using all available resources to keep abreast of competitive offers -- as long as they make sense (and we don't lose phone or internet services).

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

IDK, his changeup REALLY concerns me. RV/100 of -2.1 offsets his 2.5 for the 4 seamer. Would he be able to survive if he scrapped it and became a two pitch pitcher?!?!? He's also the WRONG SIDE OF 30. 

At least you read my rhetoric.  Most of it, anyway. (And I don’t blame you there; it’s not all worth reading.)

But the one caveat I have always made is free agency is usually a good place for relievers, especially when compared to starters.  Because at least relievers often take much shorter deals and for much lower AAVs.  They can also impact more games in a season than a starter…

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Casas has put up a .772 OPS vs. lhp and might even improve so if he's healthy we're not losing much in the infield, we might even better vs. LHP than RHP if Campbell excels and Story stays healthy.  

It's hard to bank on Rookie, but Roman Anthony shows promise, despite being a left handed hitter facing left handed pitching does not phase him one bit.  In 2023 he put up a .902/1.092 OPS vs. LHP in Greenville then Portland and in 2024 he put up a .893/.915 OPS vs. LHP in Portland and then Worcester. 

If he's elite, and it looks like he could be, you have to throw the lefty righty thing out the window.  Sometimes really good hitters just hit pitchers....weird I know. 

That might be enough if you can fill in the gaps with righty bench bats, guys like Refsnyder, and maybe another piece. 

Here's a consideration, the Sox as a team put up a .728 OPS vs. LHP compared to a .747 OPS vs. RHP. 

Yeah, pitching is priority. 

.728 vs .747 seems like an inconsequential difference.  There’s no clear quantification,” with OPS but that comes down to something in the neighborhood of 1 single per 100 at bats…

[moonslav59]

While minor league splits don't always translate to the bigs, I think it is safe to think Anthony will do okay vs LHPs. I'm not so sure about Mayer. Campbell is a RHB who could be a big plus in that area. The return of Story may help. Replacing O'Neill will not be easy, but I doubt we spend big on getting a top RHB. We have too many greater needs. We may try to add a RHB at catcher.

On the pitching side, I do think we need a solid LH's RP'er, but our biggest need is a closer and set-up man, regardless of which arm they throw with. Sure, making one a lefty makes sense, but getting 2 solid RH'd RP'ers and a decent LH RP'er would be fine with me.

Bernardino looked like he might be the guy.

.708 OPS Against in 2023 (.459 v LHB)

.588 OPS Against 1st half '24, but then .980 over the second half.

Maybe he can regain his form, but one could argue he was just a fluke for about 1.5 seasons.

Some numbers that might calm the fears about not having LH'd RP'ers: OPSA vs LHBs

.549 Slaten

.513 Whitlock (career: .689 v LHB/.695 v RHB)

.444 Guerrero (just 18 PAs)

Maybe Whitlock is the pen solution v LHBs.

[notin]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While minor league splits don't always translate to the bigs, I think it is safe to think Anthony will do okay vs LHPs. I'm not so sure about Mayer. Campbell is a RHB who could be a big plus in that area. The return of Story may help. Replacing O'Neill will not be easy, but I doubt we spend big on getting a top RHB. We have too many greater needs. We may try to add a RHB at catcher.

On the pitching side, I do think we need a solid LH's RP'er, but our biggest need is a closer and set-up man, regardless of which arm they throw with. Sure, making one a lefty makes sense, but getting 2 solid RH'd RP'ers and a decent LH RP'er would be fine with me.

Bernardino looked like he might be the guy.

.708 OPS Against in 2023 (.459 v LHB)

.588 OPS Against 1st half '24, but then .980 over the second half.

Maybe he can regain his form, but one could argue he was just a fluke for about 1.5 seasons.

Some numbers that might calm the fears about not having LH'd RP'ers: OPSA vs LHBs

.549 Slaten

.513 Whitlock (career: .689 v LHB/.695 v RHB)

.444 Guerrero (just 18 PAs)

Maybe Whitlock is the pen solution v LHBs.

While folks on this forum might not be satisfied with the solutions, I think the Sox already know who the closer and setup pitcher will be.  Even if they plan on returning Fulmer back to the rotation.,,

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

While folks on this forum might not be satisfied with the solutions, I think the Sox already know who the closer and setup pitcher will be.  Even if they plan on returning Fulmer back to the rotation.,,

I'm 90% positive they think they have their closer (Hendriks) and back-up closers (Whitlock & Slaten.) I'm not sure how much they are counting on Fulmer, but I think they count him in the 8 man pen, if healthy. They might think we need one other good set-up man and a LH'd RP- tops. We do have a good mix of promising pen arms to fill the 5-8 slots and still have AAA depth. The problem with that, IMO, is that all 6 of those in the mix are question marks, and what often happens is, you end up cycling through 6 or 8 guys, while many fail, until you find 4-5 that might do what is needed..."MIGHT." Then, at any moment, they can get hurt of implode like Bernardino did, this year, Brasier last year and the year before, and Barnes back in '21.

I'd feel a lot better with Hendriks as our closer, if  we also added a top set-up man that could maybe be tried at closer, if Hendriks gets hurt or struggles. (Remember, Uehara was like our 3rd string closer over a decade ago.) That might be the best we can hope for, but I'd add a solid LH'd RP'er, too. We need two really good RP'ers- minimum. I'd like 3 but know that is a pipedream. They think they already added 2 with Hendriks and Fulmer, but they come a far distance from replacing Jansen and Martin.

Anybody that thinks this is a capable pen is kidding themselves, and that is putting it mildly and politely:

Closer: Hendriks

Set-up: Whitlock

Set-up: Slaten

RP4: __ add__ (LHP)

RP5: Criswell

RP6: Fulmer

RP7: Guerrero

RP8: Winckowski/Weissert/Bernardino/I Campbell

Penrod/Kelly/Booser/Shugart

 

I'd love to see our Woo pen be those listed at #7 and lower, at worst. Something like this:

Closer: Tanner Scott

Set-up: Hendriks

Set-up: __LHP__

 

Set-up: Whitlock

Set-up: Slaten

RP6: Criswell

RP7: Winckowski

RP8: Fulmer

Even this pen might not be enough, but the #9-15 depth looks like it should be able to fill 2-3 key slots over the season, but not be slotted as opening day pen arms.

 

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm 90% positive they think they have their closer (Hendriks) and back-up closers (Whitlock & Slaten.) I'm not sure how much they are counting on Fulmer, but I think they count him in the 8 man pen, if healthy. They might think we need one other good set-up man and a LH'd RP- tops. We do have a good mix of promising pen arms to fill the 5-8 slots and still have AAA depth. The problem with that, IMO, is that all 6 of those in the mix are question marks, and what often happens is, you end up cycling through 6 or 8 guys, while many fail, until you find 4-5 that might do what is needed..."MIGHT." Then, at any moment, they can get hurt of implode like Bernardino did, this year, Brasier last year and the year before, and Barnes back in '21.

I'd feel a lot better with Hendriks as our closer, if  we also added a top set-up man that could maybe be tried at closer, if Hendriks gets hurt or struggles. (Remember, Uehara was like our 3rd string closer over a decade ago.) That might be the best we can hope for, but I'd add a solid LH'd RP'er, too. We need two really good RP'ers- minimum. I'd like 3 but know that is a pipedream. They think they already added 2 with Hendriks and Fulmer, but they come a far distance from replacing Jansen and Martin.

Anybody that thinks this is a capable pen is kidding themselves, and that is putting it mildly and politely:

Closer: Hendriks

Set-up: Whitlock

Set-up: Slaten

RP4: __ add__ (LHP)

RP5: Criswell

RP6: Fulmer

RP7: Guerrero

RP8: Winckowski/Weissert/Bernardino/I Campbell

Penrod/Kelly/Booser/Shugart

 

I'd love to see our Woo pen be those listed at #7 and lower, at worst. Something like this:

Closer: Tanner Scott

Set-up: Hendriks

Set-up: __LHP__

 

Set-up: Whitlock

Set-up: Slaten

RP6: Criswell

RP7: Winckowski

RP8: Fulmer

Even this pen might not be enough, but the #9-15 depth looks like it should be able to fill 2-3 key slots over the season, but not be slotted as opening day pen arms.

 

Bres-slow is going to select someone from the rule 5 draft and give them a chance to win a spot in the bullpen. 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Bres-slow is going to select someone from the rule 5 draft and give them a chance to win a spot in the bullpen. 

That might have the same odds as JH spending to within $5M of the tax line or signing Tanner Scott.