Article: Where the Red Sox Payroll Stands Right Now

[Davy Andrews]

Looking at Boston's current commitments and its historical spending in order to get a sense of just how much the Red Sox might actually spend during the offseason.

The Red Sox are going to add during the offseason, likely through both free agency and the trade market. Like just about every team in baseball, they could use some more pitching and a good right-handed hitter. Beyond that, we really don’t know much about the team’s plans. Maybe they expect to slot their promising hitting prospects right into the lineup, or maybe they'll slow-play them and land a big-name free agent like Willy Adames or Alex Bregman. One thing we can get a sense of is how much money the team has to play with. Sources like RosterResource, Cot’s Contracts, MLB Trade Rumors, and Spotrac can give us a sense of where the team’s payroll is right now, where it’s been in the past, and how it stacks up against the rest of the league. All of that can give us a better sense of what we might expect going forward, even if we don’t know the plan. So let’s start with what we know.

RosterResource has Boston’s total payroll for this season at an estimated $183,361,623, which makes it the 11th-highest in baseball. I know it feels like the team has been scrimping, but it’s at least worth remembering that as things stand right now, they’re already pretty close to running a top-10 payroll. The other important number relates to the Competitive Balance Tax, also known as the luxury tax. For CBT purposes, RosterResource has the Red Sox at $222,674,123. That number is larger because it factors in things like average annual value adjustments, player benefits, salaries for minor leaguers on the 40-man roster, and so on.

Like every club, Boston has less payroll committed for the 2025 season, because free agents like Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Luis Garcia, Nick Pivetta, Tyler O’Neill, Danny Jansen, and Lucas Sims are coming off the books. If you combine RosterResource’s estimates with the estimated salaries that Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford will receive in arbitration, that brings you to somewhere between $127 and $131 million. All of this is to say that coming into the 2025 season, if the Red Sox wanted to do nothing more than keep the same payroll as they had in 2024, they’d have something like $53 million to play with. If they decided to spend a little bit more, going right up to but not exceeding the luxury tax threshold, they’d probably have an extra $10 million on top of that (in terms of average annual value).

However, recent history tells us that we should probably expect the Red Sox to shoot a little bit higher. The table below shows payroll figures tracked by Cot’s Contracts. The numbers in parentheses are Boston’s rank in each category, and that's what we're interested in.

Year	Opening Day 26-Man	Year End 40-Man	CBT 40-Man
2024	$171,242,167 (12)	N/A	$223,105,947 (12)
2023	$181,207,484 (12)	$203,096,349 (10)	$225,767,320 (12)
2022	$206,553,059 ( 6)	$217,089,051 ( 6)	$236,149,678 ( 5)
2021	$180,147,694 ( 8)	$187,356,913 ( 6)	$207,640,471 ( 6)
2020	$ 73,931,812 (  4)	$  64,338,341 (13)	$184,859,384 (  8)
2019	$236,171,429 (  1)	$228,403,219 ( 1)	$243,653,717 ( 1)
2018	$233,752,429 (  1)	$230,396,923 ( 1)	$239,481,745 ( 1)
2017	$197,041,179 (  3)	$189,218,620 ( 4)	$191,888,422 ( 6)
2016	$197,899,679 (  4)	$200,563,162 ( 3)	$204,012,716 ( 5)
2015	$184,345,996 (  3)	$185,568,958 ( 3)	$199,491,005 ( 3)
2014	$156,350,125 (  5)	$168,178,367 ( 5)	$185,922,329 ( 5)
2013	$154,555,500 (  4)	$176,481,441 ( 3)	$177,774,334 ( 3)
2012	$175,249,119 (  2)	$168,614,614 ( 3)	$177,952,823 ( 2)

As you can see, Cot’s has the Sox with the 12th-highest payroll and luxury tax figure in each of the past two seasons. But from 2020 to 2022, they had routinely been in the top eight, and from 2012 to 2019, they were almost always at the very top of the league. If the Red Sox really want to give themselves the best chance to maximize this competitive window, they could jump back into the deep end, where they've lived for pretty much this entire century. This season, the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers are the only teams with estimated payrolls above $300 million. The Phillies and the Astros are in the next tier, with payrolls approaching $250 million. If the Red Sox are willing to run a top-five payroll, that means paying the luxury tax and adding at least another $115 million in 2025 salary. That wouldn't bring them anywhere near the Yankees, Dodgers, or Mets, but still, for that kind of money, no free agent would be off limits — not even Juan Soto – and the team would be able to sign multiple difference-makers. There are plenty of other factors that will affect free agency, but as the Red Sox start building for the next season and beyond, having a sense of their spending habits in the past should help us get a sense of how they see themselves going forward.

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[Bellhorn04]

Good stuff, Davy.  

[Larry Cook]

We get somebody to take yoshida and gioletta off our hands and we sign fried and trade for Bryce miller, then we are back in the playoffs in 2025! 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We get somebody to take yoshida and gioletta off our hands and we sign fried and trade for Bryce miller, then we are back in the playoffs in 2025! 

Why not Story, too?

Story, Gio and Yoshida for Yamamoto!

LOL

[moonslav59]

I am not sure we spend even $55M, and $115M would  give me a heart attack.

I'm at the point, where I will be surprised just spend more than 2024.

[win red sox]

I think it all comes down to Soto. If the Sox sign Soto to something like 12/540 then I would assume they would blow by the first threshold as there is no real punishment besides the 20% tax on the overage.  Signing Soto would mean they are all in and could lead to a Kikuchi signing 2/40, and high leverage relievers like Hoffman 2/30, Estevez 2/20. Soto in LF could also open the doors in moving your excess OF for pitching.

If they don't sign Soto I would assume they stay around the 220 mark.  This would be a shame as you have Casas, Duran, and Devers in there prime and elite talent coming up this year.  I think the days of elite talent becoming free agents are going to become extremely rare.  I also think the talk about the lineup and talent coming through is too left handed is overblown, all you need is 4 right handed hitters  to balance the lineup and the Sox have that.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, win red sox said:

I think it all comes down to Soto. If the Sox sign Soto to something like 12/540 then I would assume they would blow by the first threshold as there is no real punishment besides the 20% tax on the overage.  Signing Soto would mean they are all in and could lead to a Kikuchi signing 2/40, and high leverage relievers like Hoffman 2/30, Estevez 2/20. Soto in LF could also open the doors in moving your excess OF for pitching.

If they don't sign Soto I would assume they stay around the 220 mark.  This would be a shame as you have Casas, Duran, and Devers in there prime and elite talent coming up this year.  I think the days of elite talent becoming free agents are going to become extremely rare.  I also think the talk about the lineup and talent coming through is too left handed is overblown, all you need is 4 right handed hitters  to balance the lineup and the Sox have that.  

 

 

 

 

 

The idea that the Red Sox are going to outbid the Yankees and Mets for Soto is just not realistic.

Even in the years when the Sox were big spenders they would never take on the Yankees in a bidding war.   

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The idea that the Red Sox are going to outbid the Yankees and Mets for Soto is just not realistic.

Even in the years when the Sox were big spenders they would never take on the Yankees in a bidding war.   

They would bid against the Yankees from time to time, but I'm not so sure how often they actually won or if the Sox were just driving up the price. An example of direct competition was Mark Teixeira. 

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They would bid against the Yankees from time to time, but I'm not so sure how often they actually won or if the Sox were just driving up the price. An example of direct competition was Mark Teixeira. 

Right, and they when they found out Teixeira preferred the Yankees, instead of upping the ante they tossed in the towel and got pissy about it.

Damon was another case, although the rumor there was that Boras screwed them by not giving them a chance to up their bid.  

[Bellhorn04]

Taking on the Yankees is one thing, taking them and Crazy Steve on is simply a non-starter.  I don't really blame Henry for sitting that one out!

[win red sox]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The idea that the Red Sox are going to outbid the Yankees and Mets for Soto is just not realistic.

Even in the years when the Sox were big spenders they would never take on the Yankees in a bidding war.   

I'm sure your right, the Sox shouldn't bid on players that the yankees are interested in.

Looking at the Yankee contract commitments next year is around 255m and they would need to fill first base if they decline Rizzo's 17m option, they would have to replace gleyber torres at second base.

Judge is not acenterfielder and it showed this year -9.9 defensive fwar this this year which was the worse for qualified center fielders. Jason Dominguez is the 14th ranked prospect in baseball and is ready for a starting role next year and he's also better suited as a corner outfielder.

And just eyeing tax implications on Soto's contract if he signed a 50 million a year contract  it would cost the yankees and additional 35m a year as 3rd time offenders.

These are the reasons why I think the Sox could be competitive in what the offer Soto.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Taking on the Yankees is one thing, taking them and Crazy Steve on is simply a non-starter.  I don't really blame Henry for sitting that one out!

I think they could bid against the Yankees if they wanted to. Will they do it for Soto? Zero chance. They haven't been linked at all so there's just no way.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, and they when they found out Teixeira preferred the Yankees, instead of upping the ante they tossed in the towel and got pissy about it.

Damon was another case, although the rumor there was that Boras screwed them by not giving them a chance to up their bid.  

Bernie Willliams was another case…

[win red sox]

These aren't the George Steinbrenner Yankees, for context the Giants offered Judge  a bigger contract but he wanted to stay home.  The Yankees were outbid.  Soto is Boras's agent, I would assume he goes to the team that offers the best contract.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Bernie Willliams was another case…

Not sure these count (not MLB free agents), but the Sox did outbid NY for Yoan Moncada... and were outbid for Jose Contreras.

Both won World Series for the Sox: Moncada traded for Chris Sale for the Red; Contreras started and won Game 1 of the 2005 WS for the White.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, win red sox said:

These aren't the George Steinbrenner Yankees, for context the Giants offered Judge  a bigger contract but he wanted to stay home.  The Yankees were outbid.

Is this a confirmed story?  I thought the Yankees matched the Giants offer and that was what it took.

[notin]

Soto would be a spectacular acquisition that would give the Sox a superstar to replace Mookie.   But I’d be beyond shocked if the Sox made anything above a cursory attempt to acquire him.

I don’t see the Sox signing even Pete Alonso, the premier right-handed bat on the market.  And Alonso’s next contract will probably be less than half of Soto’s…

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not sure these count (not MLB free agents), but the Sox did outbid NY for Yoan Moncada... and were outbid for Jose Contreras.

Both won World Series for the Sox: Moncada traded for Chris Sale for the Red; Contreras started and won Game 1 of the 2005 WS for the White.

The Yankees aren't invicible in the FA market as they once were. However, I don't see the Sox competing with them at the moment. 

[notin]

44 minutes ago, win red sox said:

I'm sure your right, the Sox shouldn't bid on players that the yankees are interested in.

Looking at the Yankee contract commitments next year is around 255m and they would need to fill first base if they decline Rizzo's 17m option, they would have to replace gleyber torres at second base.

Judge is not acenterfielder and it showed this year -9.9 defensive fwar this this year which was the worse for qualified center fielders. Jason Dominguez is the 14th ranked prospect in baseball and is ready for a starting role next year and he's also better suited as a corner outfielder.

And just eyeing tax implications on Soto's contract if he signed a 50 million a year contract  it would cost the yankees and additional 35m a year as 3rd time offenders.

These are the reasons why I think the Sox could be competitive in what the offer Soto.

I didn’t like Judge in CF either, but the Yankees are also clearly willing to live with it in order to bat Soto and Judge back-to-back.

Their appearance in the ALCS this year probably already trumps Judge’s negative dWAR…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Yankees aren't invicible in the FA market as they once were. However, I don't see the Sox competing with them at the moment. 

I agree.  I think they’re very vincible…

[win red sox]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Is this a confirmed story?  I thought the Yankees matched the Giants offer and that was what it took.

Everything  I read said the Giants offered 9/360.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

I agree.  I think they’re very vincible…

I just wrote your name on the chalkboard and put a check next to it. 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, win red sox said:

Everything  I read said the Giants offered 9/360.

That's what he signed for with the Yankees who matched the Giants offer per reports. Giants weren't reported to offer MORE. 

[win red sox]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's what he signed for with the Yankees who matched the Giants offer per reports. Giants weren't reported to offer MORE. 

This is my bad, for some reason i thought the Yankees offer was loaded with deferrals. But i'm pretty sure the padres offer was over 400m. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, win red sox said:

I think it all comes down to Soto. If the Sox sign Soto to something like 12/540 then I would assume they would blow by the first threshold as there is no real punishment besides the 20% tax on the overage.  Signing Soto would mean they are all in and could lead to a Kikuchi signing 2/40, and high leverage relievers like Hoffman 2/30, Estevez 2/20. Soto in LF could also open the doors in moving your excess OF for pitching.

If they don't sign Soto I would assume they stay around the 220 mark.  This would be a shame as you have Casas, Duran, and Devers in there prime and elite talent coming up this year.  I think the days of elite talent becoming free agents are going to become extremely rare.  I also think the talk about the lineup and talent coming through is too left handed is overblown, all you need is 4 right handed hitters  to balance the lineup and the Sox have that.  

 

Why assume $220? 

I'm not sayin it can't or won't happen, but I think assuming $200M might be pushing it.

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

Soto would be a spectacular acquisition that would give the Sox a superstar to replace Mookie.   But I’d be beyond shocked if the Sox made anything above a cursory attempt to acquire him.

I don’t see the Sox signing even Pete Alonso, the premier right-handed bat on the market.  And Alonso’s next contract will probably be less than half of Soto’s…

I seriously doubt we go so large and long on a bat, unless it is couple with a blockbuster trade of bats for a major pitching addition. Maybe, I'm letting my own wishes cloud my thinking, but I have to think, they know our area of greatest need is pitching.

While we do have some promising arms at or near ML readiness (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin), and a core of promising young/younger pitchers already in the bigs (Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Slaten), it's not enough- either quality or quantity-wise.

I would love to see us spend to the tax line or even go over, but I'll believe it when I see it. That is my mantra on winter spending. Show me the money!

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, win red sox said:

This is my bad, for some reason i thought the Yankees offer was loaded with deferrals. But i'm pretty sure the padres offer was over 400m. 

IDK, Nats had a 15/440 offer, but that was a few years earlier and those years are way too long at a much lower AAV. 

[mvp 78]

I couldn't see a Padres offer listed anywhere aside from it stated that Soto met with the owner, but a deal couldn't get done due to the owner's declining health before he passed. 

[win red sox]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I couldn't see a Padres offer listed anywhere aside from it stated that Soto met with the owner, but a deal couldn't get done due to the owner's declining health before he passed. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10068189-aaron-judges-agents-say-yankees-star-turned-down-400m-contract-from-padres-in-fa#:~:text=Adam WellsMarch 9%2C 2023,re-sign with the Yankees.

It's bleacher report, but its a quote from his agent.

[notin]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I seriously doubt we go so large and long on a bat, unless it is couple with a blockbuster trade of bats for a major pitching addition. Maybe, I'm letting my own wishes cloud my thinking, but I have to think, they know our area of greatest need is pitching.

While we do have some promising arms at or near ML readiness (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin), and a core of promising young/younger pitchers already in the bigs (Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Slaten), it's not enough- either quality or quantity-wise.

I would love to see us spend to the tax line or even go over, but I'll believe it when I see it. That is my mantra on winter spending. Show me the money!

So far, the only rumor is Adames, who will require something large and long.  Not in the same neighborhood as Soto, but maybe close to Alonso.

I’d be surprised if the Sox get even close to an offer for Adames.  I think most everyone on the planet, including most of the bushmen on the Kulwahari, expect Adames to sign with the Dodgers.  The Sox are not outbidding the Dodgers.  
 

I don’t expect Fried or Burnes, either.