predicting 2025 payroll

[Hugh2]

All eyes will be on Sox ownership this offseason.  What do you think the Sox will do for the budget in the year 2025? will they significantly add? or will they shed.  

I set the over/under at $220 million

[mvp 78]

We can still do polls here? 

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We can still do polls here? 

[Hugh2]

And GIF's apparently. 

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing $210M- maybe more at the deadline.

[Nick]

I always think of luxury tax payroll.

I believe the Management always deal in cash outlay payroll. 

Bello's high salary per luxury tax is not part of 2025 payroll. His cash payroll is.

 

 

[Hugh2]

Cash Payroll last few years vs. Luxury tax payroll

Cash 187/218/203/213

LT:    207/236/225/226

 

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

I always think of luxury tax payroll.

I believe the Management always deal in cash outlay payroll. 

Bello's high salary per luxury tax is not part of 2025 payroll. His cash payroll is.

 

 

I do too, perhaps I should change the name in the poll.  Left it open for a while for this reason. 

[moonslav59]

Bello makes $2.7M in 2025, but the Tax hit is $9.2M.

I was hoping the poll had multiple choices, like 

A) Under $190M

B) $190-200M

C) 200-210M

D) Close to the Tax line w/o going over.

(I'd  vote C but B was a close second.)

[Hugh2]

Anyone wanna change their position?

[Larry Cook]

I think it will come in at 195mm

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think it will come in at 195mm

They’re already up to 175

[Duran Is The Man]

under.

[Hugh2]

People are sticking to their guns, I can respect that.  I too am sticking to my over prediction. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Anyone wanna change their position?

No. Offseason bluster isn't moving the needle for me. I've heard it before. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No. Offseason bluster isn't moving the needle for me. I've heard it before. 

The "we're back!" vibe has improved my mood for the time being, but we shall see what we shall see. 

[Hugh2]

I probably should have clarified that I'm talking about payroll for tax purposes. 

[Hugh2]

But I also speculate that doesn't change anyones stance. 

[Bellhorn04]

OK, my wild ass guess, which I expect is also a fairly common one, is they go about 20 mill over the first tax threshold. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I probably should have clarified that I'm talking about payroll for tax purposes. 

Oh, for tax purposes. Then I change my vote. 😎

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, my wild ass guess, which I expect is also a fairly common one, is they go about 20 mill over the first tax threshold. 

20M gets them to the 2nd threshold at 261M. They should spend that much. Will they? IDK.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

20M gets them to the 2nd threshold at 261M. They should spend that much. Will they? IDK.

NK.

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh, for tax purposes. Then I change my vote. 😎

do you really though?

[Hugh2]

or did i just give you all an out when I'm correct?

[Hugh2]

If they're willing to go over because they believe in this team, then they probably don't mind staying over for two years, ALSO the penaltiy for going over the 2nd threshold is just nominal money. 

Still, I think the Sox would want an avenue to dip under several years in the future.  I can see them adding two big contracts this offseason if they're serious.....Call it Snell/Soto and then maybe spending higher AAV on a few guys for 1-2 years. 

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

If they're willing to go over because they believe in this team, then they probably don't mind staying over for two years, ALSO the penaltiy for going over the 2nd threshold is just nominal money. 

Still, I think the Sox would want an avenue to dip under several years in the future.  I can see them adding two big contracts this offseason if they're serious.....Call it Snell/Soto and then maybe spending higher AAV on a few guys for 1-2 years. 

 

$16M to go over both thresholds. Going over for one year is nothing. 

[Hugh2]

Sox stats now has the payroll at $252 million

[moonslav59]

Since our ranking seemed to matter more to many posters, we might be near 6th, again.

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Since our ranking seemed to matter more to many posters, we might be near 6th, again.

I think we might be edging out Toronto now for that 5th spot.  After that it's the two NY teams, LA and Philly. 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Since our ranking seemed to matter more to many posters, we might be near 6th, again.

7th in CBT according to Spotrac.