A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are older than Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo but FanGraphs projects regression of 5.4 to 4.8 WAR for Raleigh, 3.1 to 2.3 WAR for Robles, 4.2 to 3,.5 WAR for Kirby, 4.1 to 3.5 WAR for Gilbert, 2.8 to 2.1 WAR for Miller and 2.3 to 1.8 WAR for Bryan Woo.

I expect all of them, as a group,  to improve, too> I never even hinted, otherwise.

On the other end...

32-34: Story (just turned 32) and Refsnyder (our platoon DH/LF'er)

Over 35: Hendriks, Chapman & Wilson

SEA:
32-35: Luis Castillo, Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Dylan Moore

Over 35: Solano

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on major Sox injuries:

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

[Larry Cook]

On 2/1/2025 at 8:57 PM, oldtimer said:

Can Mayer also be brought up and given reps at SS against some RH pitching? That's a tougher call but I hate to see him languish in the minors if he has true ML capability.

 

 

I got to see Portland a good bit in 2024. I got to admit, I was most impressed with Mayer. The only nitpick I saw was his tendency to get impatient and chase pitches. Everything else was the best I saw in double A last year. This kid is the real deal!!!  Future star. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I got to see Portland a good bit in 2024. I got to admit, I was most impressed with Mayer. The only nitpick I saw was his tendency to get impatient and chase pitches. Everything else was the best I saw in double A last year. This kid is the real deal!!!  Future star. 

We should not add these guys to the 40 and 26, unless they will be playing almost FT.

Mayer seems to be the most blocked, but with Story's injury issues, he might get the first chance.

Campbell seems the most "ready," to me, but was the 2024 sample size large enough to really know? 2B is more open than SS and OF, so he should have the first crack.

Anthony can play any OF position, and Abreu-Rafaela can and should platoon, so maybe the OF is as open as 2B.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports Sox still in talks about Arenado. This better not cost us more than what FAs we might have gotten instead. Yoshida mentioned.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/cardinals-red-sox-have-reportedly-had-recent-communication-on-arenado.html

[Randy Red Sox]

On 2/2/2025 at 11:05 AM, notin said:

So when last year’s 80 at bats aren’t a convincing sample size, we go to the 75 at bats from the previous year?

Here’s what we need to know about Grissom. The Sox thought enough about him to ask for him in the Sale trade.  The Braves thought enough of Grissom to make the Sox pay salary if Grissom was involved, and the Sox paid it.  And considering the Sox had at least one offer to take Sale’s entire contract, this is significant.

Add to that Grissom dominated in the minors and made MLB within the first two years of his MiLB career.

He’s very likely getting first shot at 2b over Hamilton and certainly over Romy Gonzalez, who is likely very high on the DFA list (unlike Grissom).  Certainly Kristian Campbell can derail Grissom, but i wouldn’t count on Romy/Hamilton, both of whom took a lot longer to achieve a small modicum of success and did so at an older age than Grissom…

the Sox traded Sale to cut payroll and FOR NO OTHER REASON.  They sugarcoated the trade by making an attempt to fill a position that has been a black hole since Pedroia. To date the trade has been a DISMAL FAILURE but Grissom will get the first chance in ST to show he doesn't stink like he did last year.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Randy Red Sox said:

the Sox traded Sale to cut payroll and FOR NO OTHER REASON.  They sugarcoated the trade by making an attempt to fill a position that has been a black hole since Pedroia. To date the trade has been a DISMAL FAILURE but Grissom will get the first chance in ST to show he doesn't stink like he did last year.

Grissom, Yoshida and $15M for Arenado.

[Randy Red Sox]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR reports Sox still in talks about Arenado. This better not cost us more than what FAs we might have gotten instead. Yoshida mentioned.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/cardinals-red-sox-have-reportedly-had-recent-communication-on-arenado.html

watch for us to include another of our top 3 prospects and ask STL to pick up some of the contract

[Randy Red Sox]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Grissom, Yoshida and $15M for Arenado.

LOL

[moonslav59]

STL wants to dump salary, so they don't make any trade that doesn't cost the other team a bunch of money.

Why would that be the team led by Dr. Cheap-a-nator?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

watch for us to include another of our top 3 prospects and ask STL to pick up some of the contract

The Red Sox have to trade a prospect or two before they become stars, so they won't have to pay market value to extend them.

Their company strategy is to over-hype minor leaguers until someone falls for it and trades for them while they're cheap -- in exchange, Boston gets what it really wants: actual big league mediocrity on soon-to-be expiring contracts.

 

[mvp 78]

If STL wants to dump Arenado, just trade Sogard and Hayden Mullins for him while taking on the whole salary. Ben gets two "prospects" he acquired with the Sox and no longer has to deal with Arenado's salary. 

I wouldn't give anything more than that. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox have to trade a prospect or two before they become stars, so they won't have to pay market value to extend them.

Their company strategy is to over-hype minor leaguers until someone falls for it and trades for them while they're cheap -- in exchange, Boston gets what it really wants: actual big league mediocrity on soon-to-be expiring contracts.

 

Which recent prospect was overhyped? Duran who just had a monster year? Casas who a lot of people on here don't want to trade and want to extend? Abreu was completely under the radar. Nobody cared about Crawford. Houck wasn't a big deal until he showed up in 2020. The only guy I can think of is Bello, but many people on here still believe he's a future #2!

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We should not add these guys to the 40 and 26, unless they will be playing almost FT.

Mayer seems to be the most blocked, but with Story's injury issues, he might get the first chance.

Campbell seems the most "ready," to me, but was the 2024 sample size large enough to really know? 2B is more open than SS and OF, so he should have the first crack.

Anthony can play any OF position, and Abreu-Rafaela can and should platoon, so maybe the OF is as open as 2B.

Mayer has some adjustments to still work on and has 0 AAA PA's. I don't see a reason for him to be rushed at the moment. He'll get his opportunity soon enough. 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If STL wants to dump Arenado, just trade Sogard and Hayden Mullins for him while taking on the whole salary. Ben gets two "prospects" he acquired with the Sox and no longer has to deal with Arenado's salary. 

I wouldn't give anything more than that. 

Taking on the whole salary should mean they give us prospects.

He's not worth it. Add Yoshida plus $5M a year, and it's closer to something I'd do.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Taking on the whole salary should mean they give us prospects.

He's not worth it. Add Yoshida plus $5M a year, and it's closer to something I'd do.

Be realistic, moon.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Be realistic, moon.

Okay: pay $8M x 3.

Why do you want to give any prospects for a "sunken cost" player?

We know whenever JH spends money on someone, it means he won't spend on someone else. Why spend $60M on an over-the-hill player?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Which recent prospect was overhyped? Duran who just had a monster year? Casas who a lot of people on here don't want to trade and want to extend? Abreu was completely under the radar. Nobody cared about Crawford. Houck wasn't a big deal until he showed up in 2020. The only guy I can think of is Bello, but many people on here still believe he's a future #2!

Don't you know by now that I have to make up crap -- the front office and NESN has me programmed to shift through their misinformation every day, and regurgitate it back at them, so their interns will relay more confusion to fuel more conflicts of interest kings, queens, jokers and jesters.

[moonslav59]

With the Grichuk and Laureano signings, I think our plan is to have Anthony in the OF for opening day or the first day he qualifies for the added year of control (mid May?)

I'm not so sure about Campbell. I think the run DHam and either Grissom or Romy at 2B as a platoon, to see if they can do the job. By the time they figure it out, Campbell will have the extra year of control and can win the job.

Mayer gets the call, only if and when Story goes on the IL.

[notin]

14 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

watch for us to include another of our top 3 prospects and ask STL to pick up some of the contract

St. Louis is going to pick up some of that contract regardless.  No way they can unload him anywhere otherwise.  But they’d have to pay the whole thing and likely more to get one of the Sox top prospects.  

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

St. Louis is going to pick up some of that contract regardless.  No way they can unload him anywhere otherwise.  But they’d have to pay the whole thing and likely more to get one of the Sox top prospects.  

It's too bad they have no room to play Yoshida. Instead of just paying money, they could take him plus the equivalent dollars to equal the same money saved.

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

St. Louis is going to pick up some of that contract regardless.  No way they can unload him anywhere otherwise.  But they’d have to pay the whole thing and likely more to get one of the Sox top prospects.  

If they ate the whole contract, I still wouldn't give up at top 10 guy. I'd consider Sandlin or Romero. 

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's too bad they have no room to play Yoshida. Instead of just paying money, they could take him plus the equivalent dollars to equal the same money saved.

They are dumping Arenado because they don't want to pay him. Why would they want anything to do with Masa's contract? 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they ate the whole contract, I still wouldn't give up at top 10 guy. I'd consider Sandlin or Romero. 

Sounds about right, but do you still think giving Mullins and Sogard for the full contract is a good idea?

Why should we spend very limited dollars on him?

If they could give us Helsley, too, that would change in a big way, and save them more money.

Yoshida +$8M x 3, Cespedes & Fitts for Helsley & Arenado? (Maybe add a Castro or Penrod type.)

 

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If STL wants to dump Arenado, just trade Sogard and Hayden Mullins for him while taking on the whole salary. Ben gets two "prospects" he acquired with the Sox and no longer has to deal with Arenado's salary. 

I wouldn't give anything more than that. 

Ben is in Pittsburgh. 

[notin]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sounds about right, but do you still think giving Mullins and Sogard for the full contract is a good idea?

Why should we spend very limited dollars on him?

If they could give us Helsley, too, that would change in a big way, and save them more money.

Yoshida +$8M x 3, Cespedes & Fitts for Helsley & Arenado? (Maybe add a Castro or Penrod type.)

 

While they certainly want a cheaper team, At some point it still has to be one people are willing to pay to see…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They are dumping Arenado because they don't want to pay him. Why would they want anything to do with Masa's contract? 

I've explained this. If they are prepared to pay 1/2 his salary, which is about $32M, or $37M, if you don't count deferments, then taking Yoshida plus $8M a year is leaving $30M of his contract for STL to pay for rather than hand us $30M. 

Maybe, they end up trading Yoshida, later and save part of the $30M still owed to him. Maybe he earns $10M a year, for them.

We open up a roster slot at DH and get a decent 3Bman. We pay $60M for Arenado and $24M for Yoshida (not $54M)

Note: explaining it doesn't mean STL does it, and I'm not even sure I want this deal.

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sounds about right, but do you still think giving Mullins and Sogard for the full contract is a good idea?

Why should we spend very limited dollars on him?

If they could give us Helsley, too, that would change in a big way, and save them more money.

Yoshida +$8M x 3, Cespedes & Fitts for Helsley & Arenado? (Maybe add a Castro or Penrod type.)

 

I'd do the Mullins and Sogard trade. 

Cespedes and Fitts for one year of Helsley? Pass since I don't think this is a WS contender year. 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

While they certainly want a cheaper team, At some point it still has to be one people are willing to pay to see…

Nobody is changing their choice to come to see the Sox on Arenado.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I'd do the Mullins and Sogard trade. 

Cespedes and Fitts for one year of Helsley? Pass since I don't think this is a WS contender year. 

It's actually Cespedes and Fitts minus Mullins and Sogard from your deal, and surely dumping most of Yoshida's deal is worth something more.

Why do you think we need to give anything for a negative value player? They should give us a prospect to take his full contract.