A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

A pre-ARB closer who had 2 fWAR last year. If Mayer is called up, does he even get to 2 fWAR? Is he healthy enough to have more fWAR than a reliever? 

I did check BTV.  They say Oakland would be stupid to reject Mayer for Miller

 

Of corse, they might not want a shortstop…

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

I did check BTV.  

Well in that case. 

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if the A's have actual fans any more, but if they did, Miller would probably be a fan favorite.  A young flame-throwing closer.  If they have fans, it would not be a popular move.   

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know if the A's have actual fans any more, but if they did, Miller would probably be a fan favorite.  A young flame-throwing closer.  If they have fans, it would not be a popular move.   

All those A's fans in Lodi would be devastated. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well in that case. 

Hey I just reported their results.  Is there any reason you’re opinion on the subject should be given superior credence?

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know if the A's have actual fans any more, but if they did, Miller would probably be a fan favorite.  A young flame-throwing closer.  If they have fans, it would not be a popular move.   

You need a winning team to enjoy a closer.  Meanwhile the A’s did have one of the most exciting hitters in the second half last year who looks more like the type of young star you build around…

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

Hey I just reported their results.  Is there any reason you’re opinion on the subject should be given superior credence?

Is there a reason that "well BTV said so" should be good enough to end the conversation or prove my opinion wrong? 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

You need a winning team to enjoy a closer.  Meanwhile the A’s did have one of the most exciting hitters in the second half last year who looks more like the type of young star you build around…

Some would have said the same about Zack Felloff after 2023. 

[notin]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is there a reason that "well BTV said so" should be good enough to end the conversation or prove my opinion wrong? 

It doesn’t have to end the conversation. They base it on projected performance and projected salary.  What’s your basis?

What do you think it would take for Boston to pry Miller out of Sacramento?

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Some would have said the same about Zack Felloff after 2023. 

True, although I wouldn’t write Gelof off after one bad year either…

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

True, although I wouldn’t write Gelof off after one bad year either…

I mean, his xWOBA, xBA, whiff and k% were all bottom 5 percentile. It was more than just a bad year. It's also the majority of his MLB service time atm. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, his xWOBA, xBA, whiff and k% were all bottom 5 percentile. It was more than just a bad year. It's also the majority of his MLB service time atm. 

And his poor 2024 means nothing pertaining to Butler, whose career could either flatline or take off.

But right now the A’s are averaging 60 wins over the last 3 years, which probably makes it the wrong time to have a closer as your best player.  It’s like buying the top of the line camping trailer when you have no car.

There is a chance might not like Mayer or they do like one of their internal potential solutions shortstop (having take 3 shortstops in the first round of the last 5 drafts); they might prefer pitchers.  Or outfielders.  But if they want to deal Miller - and they probably should consider it strongly - a con census top ten prospect that plays shortstop is a pretty damn good return.  They might initially ask for Anthony, but if the counteroffer is Mayer, I think they accept.  And I also don’t think thats a bad deal for them…

 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

And his poor 2024 means nothing pertaining to Butler, whose career could either flatline or take off.

But right now the A’s are averaging 60 wins over the last 3 years, which probably makes it the wrong time to have a closer as your best player.  It’s like buying the top of the line camping trailer when you have no car.

There is a chance might not like Mayer or they do like one of their internal potential solutions shortstop (having take 3 shortstops in the first round of the last 5 drafts); they might prefer pitchers.  Or outfielders.  But if they want to deal Miller - and they probably should consider it strongly - a con census top ten prospect that plays shortstop is a pretty damn good return.  They might initially ask for Anthony, but if the counteroffer is Mayer, I think they accept.  And I also in think Thats a bad deal for them…

 

I just don't know if they believe Mayer is fair value for Miller. Maybe they make the deal? Maybe they want something thrown in? I don't entirely understand what that organization is doing and I'm not sure even their diehard fans do either. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

It doesn’t have to end the conversation. They base it on projected performance and projected salary.  What’s your basis?

What do you think it would take for Boston to pry Miller out of Sacramento?

To me, Mayer seems like more than enough, if not too much, but Miller is proven and fills a great need on our roster.

Bumping every other RP'er down on the high leverage totem pole would improve more than just the closer role.

[Larry Cook]

On 1/22/2025 at 7:18 AM, mvp 78 said:

Wasn't Pivetta going to get a big deal? 

Yes, but then teams watched him pitch and came to their senses!!!  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Yes, but then teams watched him pitch and came to their senses!!!  

He pitched better than several pitchers who have already signed, using a 1, 2 or 3 year sample size.

I'd rather have him starting over Gio and Crawford, and he may do better than Bello in 2025, but there is no money left over at his price.

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Mayer seems like more than enough, if not too much, but Miller is proven and fills a great need on our roster.

Bumping every other RP'er down on the high leverage totem pole would improve more than just the closer role.

i wouldn't trade Mayer for Miller.  The Sox current starting shortstop usually ends his season before May Day ; Mayer might be needed.   I won't be devasted if Breslow actually makes that trade, however.  But I doubt its on anyone's radar besides this board.

I could see the need of getting another good RP through the trade market, however.  

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

i wouldn't trade Mayer for Miller.  The Sox current starting shortstop usually ends his season before May Day ; Mayer might be needed.   I won't be devasted if Breslow actually makes that trade, however.  But I doubt its on anyone's radar besides this board.

I could see the need of getting another good RP through the trade market, however.  

Our SS depth is pretty weak, at least for 2025 and probably 2026. Arias and Romero offer far-away hopes, but DHam, Grissom and Romy are not season-long fill-in types at SS. It would likely be Rafaela, again. Unless we add an OF'er or Yoshida-Ref get shoved into LF after a Bragman addition at 3B, we'd need Anthony promoted to make that happen. (Not a bad idea.)

While Rafaela did not look all that good on D at SS, he wasn't horrible and could grow into the position, if allowed to play there FT. He's not the ideal bridge SS for 1-2 years. Again, it comes down to Story's health on a Mayer trade. I hear yah.

I might be willing to risk it. I'm not sure Campbell could win the SS job, either.

We need a closer, and JH is being stingy. He did pay aged Jansen and Martin $25M a year x 2, but refused to pay Scott $19M x 4. 

[notin]

I wouldn’t hold my breath on the closer thing.  They already brought in Hendriks and Chapman to replace Jansen and Martin.  They may not be ideal replacements, but they are already here.

And this is a metrics-run team.  Metrics do not value closers anywhere near as highly as fans do.

I think just hoping for another bullpen arm is probably too much.  The Sox 40 man roster currently has 12 pitchers on the 40 man roster for the bullpen, and that number doesn’t count pitchers like Fitts, Priester, and Criswell whose role is unknown (by me) and didn’t count pitchers on MiLB deals like Fulmer and Austin Adams.

Im not sure any more arms are hopping on board besides some minor league deals or organizational depth.  At least not until they have move some bodies to the 60 day IL…

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

I wouldn’t hold my breath on the closer thing.  They already brought in Hendriks and Chapman to replace Jansen and Martin.  They may not be ideal replacements, but they are already here.

And this is a metrics-run team.  Metrics do not value closers anywhere near as highly as fans do.

I think just hoping for another bullpen arm is probably too much.  The Sox 40 man roster currently has 12 pitchers on the 40 man roster for the bullpen, and that number doesn’t count pitchers like Fitts, Priester, and Criswell whose role is unknown (by me) and didn’t count pitchers on MiLB deals like Fulmer and Austin Adams.

Im not sure any more arms are hopping on board besides some minor league deals or organizational depth.  At least not until they have move some bodies to the 60 day IL…

I'm almost certain we are done with our closer role. I'm not even expecting anyone else being added to the ML staff before opening day.

I think we may add a RHB, like Grichuk and roll the dice, again.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm almost certain we are done with our closer role. I'm not even expecting anyone else being added to the ML staff before opening day.

I think we may add a RHB, like Grichuk and roll the dice, again.

I still think Bregman is in play, not that I like him much.

 
I prefer Laureano to Grichuk, but I could absolutely see Grichuk as a useful addition.

For all of this talk of Yoshida playing LF, why?  Isn’t that only an issue if the Sox get a 3b that creates a logjam at 1b and DH? Right now, there is no such logjam…

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I still think Bregman is in play, not that I like him much.

 
I prefer Laureano to Grichuk, but I could absolutely see Grichuk as a useful addition.

For all of this talk of Yoshida playing LF, why?  Isn’t that only an issue if the Sox get a 3b that creates a logjam at 1b and DH? Right now, there is no such logjam…

Because in the absence of games and meaningful offseason moves, there is nothing to talk about. We'll always make room for something new and fun to talk about even if it will never happen IRL.

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I still think Bregman is in play, not that I like him much.

 
I prefer Laureano to Grichuk, but I could absolutely see Grichuk as a useful addition.

For all of this talk of Yoshida playing LF, why?  Isn’t that only an issue if the Sox get a 3b that creates a logjam at 1b and DH? Right now, there is no such logjam…

I don't think there's actually that much talk about it.  For whatever reason Cora decided to put it out there as a possibility.  Maybe it was just to make Yoshida feel better about himself...

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think there's actually that much talk about it.  For whatever reason Cora decided to put it out there as a possibility.  Maybe it was just to make Yoshida feel better about himself...

Kiké did say there's lots of carry on Masa's throws. Maybe we just need to give it another shot. 🤔

[moonslav59]

Sox sign another Catcher to a minor league deal: Mark Kolozsvary. He will get an invite to the ML ST'ing camp. Apparently, he profiles as a no bat- strong defensive catcher who bats RH'd.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

I still think Bregman is in play, not that I like him much.

 
I prefer Laureano to Grichuk, but I could absolutely see Grichuk as a useful addition.

For all of this talk of Yoshida playing LF, why?  Isn’t that only an issue if the Sox get a 3b that creates a logjam at 1b and DH? Right now, there is no such logjam…

I do not think Yoshida plays LF, unless we add a 3Bman and force Devers and or Casas to the DH slot. Even then, we may just cut ties with Yoshida or trade him and almost his whole salary.

The loss of O'Neill should not force Yoshida into the OF, as long as the DH position is his. Rafaela should not be used at SS, so he can play FT CF/RF.

The season could start like this:

LF: Duran v R/ Ref v L

CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L

RF: Abreu v R/ Rafaela v L (until Anthony wins an OF job.)

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox sign another Catcher to a minor league deal: Mark Kolozsvary. He will get an invite to the ML ST'ing camp. Apparently, he profiles as a no bat- strong defensive catcher who bats RH'd.

He was with WOO last year. 

[Randy Red Sox]

21 hours ago, notin said:

And his poor 2024 means nothing pertaining to Butler, whose career could either flatline or take off.

But right now the A’s are averaging 60 wins over the last 3 years, which probably makes it the wrong time to have a closer as your best player.  It’s like buying the top of the line camping trailer when you have no car.

There is a chance might not like Mayer or they do like one of their internal potential solutions shortstop (having take 3 shortstops in the first round of the last 5 drafts); they might prefer pitchers.  Or outfielders.  But if they want to deal Miller - and they probably should consider it strongly - a con census top ten prospect that plays shortstop is a pretty damn good return.  They might initially ask for Anthony, but if the counteroffer is Mayer, I think they accept.  And I also don’t think thats a bad deal for them…

 

If Henry wasn't so DAMN CHEAP we could have simply signed a FA closer rather than the need to trade another of our top prospects for one. Hell I'd just resign Jansen at this point than trade Mayer but of course Jansen is too expensive for Ebenezer Henry

[Randy Red Sox]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was with WOO last year. 

and fits Henry's budget

[Bellhorn04]

What a lot of people probably don't realize is that Henry isn't even majority owner of the team any more.  There is no majority owner.  FSG needed a big cash infusion because of Covid losses and they sold a 10% share to RedBird Capital.  At that point Henry's share went down to about 40%.

All the stereotypes about FSG are true, unfortunately.  We're being run by a consortium with a lot of stakeholders to please.  Red Sox fans seem to be low on the list.